Discrete devaluations and multiple equilibria in a first generation model of currency crises

The first generation models of currency crises have often been criticized because they predict that, in the absence of very large triggering shocks, currency attacks should be predictable and lead to small devaluations. This paper shows that these features of first generation models are not robust to the inclusion of private information. In particular, this paper analyzes a generalization of the Krugman-Flood-Garber (KFG) model, which relaxes the assumption that all consumers are perfectly informed about the level of fundamentals. In this environment, the KFG equilibrium of zero devaluation is only one of many possible equilibria. In all the other equilibria, the lack of perfect information delays the attack on the currency past the point at which the shadow exchange rate equals the peg, giving rise to unpredictable and discrete devaluations.

Health care provider choice in the case of patient-initiated contacts. An extended version of discrete choice of model demand

This paper analyzes the nature of health care provider choice inthe case of patient-initiated contacts, with special reference toa National Health Service setting, where monetary prices are zeroand general practitioners act as gatekeepers to publicly financedspecialized care. We focus our attention on the factors that mayexplain the continuously increasing use of hospital emergencyvisits as opposed to other provider alternatives. An extendedversion of a discrete choice model of demand for patient-initiatedcontacts is presented, allowing for individual and town residencesize differences in perceived quality (preferences) betweenalternative providers and including travel and waiting time asnon-monetary costs. Results of a nested multinomial logit model ofprovider choice are presented. Individual choice betweenalternatives considers, in a repeated nested structure, self-care,primary care, hospital and clinic emergency services. Welfareimplications and income effects are analyzed by computingcompensating variations, and by simulating the effects of userfees by levels of income. Results indicate that compensatingvariation per visit is higher than the direct marginal cost ofemergency visits, and consequently, emergency visits do not appearas an inefficient alternative even for non-urgent conditions.

Revenue management under general discrete choice model of consumer behavior

Customer choice behavior, such as 'buy-up' and 'buy-down', is an importantphe-nomenon in a wide range of industries. Yet there are few models ormethodologies available to exploit this phenomenon within yield managementsystems. We make some progress on filling this void. Specifically, wedevelop a model of yield management in which the buyers' behavior ismodeled explicitly using a multi-nomial logit model of demand. Thecontrol problem is to decide which subset of fare classes to offer ateach point in time. The set of open fare classes then affects the purchaseprobabilities for each class. We formulate a dynamic program todetermine the optimal control policy and show that it reduces to a dynamicnested allocation policy. Thus, the optimal choice-based policy caneasily be implemented in reservation systems that use nested allocationcontrols. We also develop an estimation procedure for our model based onthe expectation-maximization (EM) method that jointly estimates arrivalrates and choice model parameters when no-purchase outcomes areunobservable. Numerical results show that this combined optimization-estimation approach may significantly improve revenue performancerelative to traditional leg-based models that do not account for choicebehavior.

Measuring and explaining farm inefficiency in a panel data set of mixed farms

This paper aims to estimate a translog stochastic frontier production function in the analysis of a panel of 150 mixed Catalan farms in the period 1989-1993, in order to attempt to measure and explain variation in technical inefficiency scores with a one-stage approach. The model uses gross value added as the output aggregate measure. Total employment, fixed capital, current assets, specific costs and overhead costs are introduced into the model as inputs. Stochasticfrontier estimates are compared with those obtained using a linear programming method using a two-stage approach. The specification of the translog stochastic frontier model appears as an appropriate representation of the data, technical change was rejected and the technical inefficiency effects were statistically significant. The mean technical efficiency in the period analyzed was estimated to be 64.0%. Farm inefficiency levels were found significantly at 5%level and positively correlated with the number of economic size units.

Common cleaning products can be dangerous when mixed, 2008

Common household cleaning products can cause injury when mixed. Some combinations produce harmful fumes and other dangerous by-products.

Diplostigmaty in plants: a novel mechanism that provides reproductive assurance.

Differentiation of female sexual organs in flowering plants is rare and contrasts with the wide range of male reproductive strategies. An unusual example involves diplostigmaty, the possession of spatially and temporally distinct stigmas in Sebaea (Gentianaceae). Here, the single pistil within a flower has an apical stigma, as occurs in most flowering plants, but also a secondary stigma that occurs midway down the style, which is physically discrete and receptive several days after the apical stigma. We examined the function of diplostigmaty in Sebaea aurea, an insect-pollinated species of the Western Cape of South Africa. Floral manipulations and measurements of fertility and mating patterns provided evidence that basal stigmas function to enable autonomous delayed self-pollination, without limiting opportunities for outcrossing and thus avoiding the costs of seed discounting. We suggest that delayed selfing serves as a mechanism of reproductive assurance in populations with low plant density. The possession of dimorphic stigma function provides a novel example of a flexible mixed-mating strategy in plants that is responsive to changing demographic conditions.

Mixed equilibrium in a Downsian model with a favored candidate

This paper examines competition in the standard one-dimensional Downsian model of two-candidate elections, but where one candidate (A) enjoys an advantage over the other candidate (D). Voters' preferences are Euclidean, but any voter will vote for candidate A over candidate D unless D is closer to her ideal point by some fixed distance \delta. The location of the median voter's ideal point is uncertain, and its distribution is commonly known by both candidates. The candidates simultaneously choose locations to maximize the probability of victory. Pure strategy equilibria often fails to exist in this model, except under special conditions about \delta and the distribution of the median ideal point. We solve for the essentially unique symmetric mixed equilibrium, show that candidate A adopts more moderate policies than candidate D, and obtain some comparative statics results about the probability of victory and the expected distance between the two candidates' policies.

Infestation and natural parasitism of aphids in single and mixed pastures of black oats and ryegrass

Some species of aphids are major pests on cereal crops and grass pastures. Usually these pests are not adequately controlled in pasture lands that become sources of aphid infestations to cereal crops. The dynamics of aphids and the incidence of natural enemies are less known in pasture systems than in cereal fields. The objective of this work was to assess the aphid infestation and natural aphid parasitism in different pasture composition. Three hypotheses were tested: 1- the aphid species composition in pastures may vary according to the cereal species in the field; 2- the mixture of two plant species can modify the amount and diversity of aphids; 3- the plant species composition of pasture fields influences the parasitism of aphids. Empirical data were obtained from three Poaceae fields: black oats (Avena strigosa L.), ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.), and a mixed field of black oats and ryegrass. The most abundant aphid species was Rhopalosiphum padi followed by Sitobion avenae. Plant species composition increases the amount and the parasitism rates of aphids. The mixture of heavily infested black oats with a poorly infested ryegrass resulted in reduction of aphid infestation in comparison with heavily-infested single plant species field. This is possible because the conditions are favorable for the development of parasitoid populations. Aphidius colemani was the main parasitoid found in these areas.

Transformation of a microprolactinoma into a mixed growth hormone and prolactin-secreting pituitary adenoma.

Combined prolactin (PRL) and growth hormone (GH) secretion by a single pituitary tumor can occur in approximately 5% of cases. However, in all previously reported patients, combined secretion of both hormones was present at the time of diagnosis. Here we describe a patient initially diagnosed with a pure prolactin-secreting microadenoma, who experienced the progressive apparition of symptomatic autonomous GH secretion while on intermittent long term dopamine agonist therapy. She was operated on, and immunohistochemical analysis of tumor tissue confirmed the diagnosis of pituitary adenoma with uniform co-staining of all cells for both GH and PRL. This patient represents the first documented occurrence of asynchronous development of combined GH and PRL secretion in a pituitary adenoma. Although pathogenic mechanisms implicated remain largely speculative, it emphasizes the need for long term hormonal follow up of patients harboring prolactinomas.

Eliciting consumers preferences using stated preference discrete choice models: Contingent ranking versus choice experiment

The aim of this paper is twofold: firstly, to carry out a theoreticalreview of the most recent stated preference techniques used foreliciting consumers preferences and, secondly, to compare the empiricalresults of two dierent stated preference discrete choice approaches.They dier in the measurement scale for the dependent variable and,therefore, in the estimation method, despite both using a multinomiallogit. One of the approaches uses a complete ranking of full-profiles(contingent ranking), that is, individuals must rank a set ofalternatives from the most to the least preferred, and the other usesa first-choice rule in which individuals must select the most preferredoption from a choice set (choice experiment). From the results werealize how important the measurement scale for the dependent variablebecomes and, to what extent, procedure invariance is satisfied.

One-sided tolerance interval in a two-way balanced nested model with mixed effects

In many research areas (such as public health, environmental contamination, and others) one deals with the necessity of using data to infer whether some proportion (%) of a population of interest is (or one wants it to be) below and/or over some threshold, through the computation of tolerance interval. The idea is, once a threshold is given, one computes the tolerance interval or limit (which might be one or two - sided bounded) and then to check if it satisfies the given threshold. Since in this work we deal with the computation of one - sided tolerance interval, for the two-sided case we recomend, for instance, Krishnamoorthy and Mathew [5]. Krishnamoorthy and Mathew [4] performed the computation of upper tolerance limit in balanced and unbalanced one-way random effects models, whereas Fonseca et al [3] performed it based in a similar ideas but in a tow-way nested mixed or random effects model. In case of random effects model, Fonseca et al [3] performed the computation of such interval only for the balanced data, whereas in the mixed effects case they dit it only for the unbalanced data. For the computation of twosided tolerance interval in models with mixed and/or random effects we recomend, for instance, Sharma and Mathew [7]. The purpose of this paper is the computation of upper and lower tolerance interval in a two-way nested mixed effects models in balanced data. For the case of unbalanced data, as mentioned above, Fonseca et al [3] have already computed upper tolerance interval. Hence, using the notions persented in Fonseca et al [3] and Krishnamoorthy and Mathew [4], we present some results on the construction of one-sided tolerance interval for the balanced case. Thus, in order to do so at first instance we perform the construction for the upper case, and then the construction for the lower case.

[Archives de la Parole]. , Parable of the prodigal son : in mixed Baghelkhandi (C.P.) [i.e. Central Provinces], from Murwara / [Sir George Grierson], éd. ; Linguistic survey of India ; [Rai Bahadur Hiralal], voix

[Traditions. Asie. Inde. Madhya Pradesh. Baghelkhand]

Epithelial to mesenchymal transition in the pathogenesis of uterine malignant mixed Müllerian tumours: the role of ubiquitin proteasome system and therapeutic opportunities.

Malignant mixed Müllerian tumours (malignant mixed mesodermal tumours, MMMT) of the uterus are metaplastic carcinomas with a sarcomatous component and thus they are also called carcinosarcomas. It has now been accepted that the sarcomatous component is derived from epithelial elements that have undergone metaplasia. The process that produces this metaplasia is epithelial to mesenchymal transition (EMT), which has recently been described as a neoplasia-associated programme shared with embryonic development and enabling neoplastic cells to move and metastasise. The ubiquitin proteasome system (UPS) regulates the turnover and functions of hundreds of cellular proteins. It plays important roles in EMT by being involved in the regulation of several pathways participating in the execution of this metastasis-associated programme. In this review the specifi c role of UPS in EMT of MMMT is discussed and therapeutic opportunities from UPS manipulations are proposed.