974 resultados para Losses in harvest


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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

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Pós-graduação em Engenharia e Ciência de Alimentos - IBILCE

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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The economic impact of climate change on root crop, fisheries and vegetable production for Trinidad and Tobago under the A2 and B2 scenarios were modeled, relative to a baseline ―no climate change‖ case, where the mean temperature and rainfall for a base period of 1980 – 2000 was assumed for the years up to 2050. Production functions were used, using ARMA specifications to correct for serial autocorrelation. For the A2 scenarios, rainfall is expected to fall by approximately 10% relative to the baseline case in the 2020s, but is expected to rise thereafter, until by the 2040s rainfall rises slightly above the mean for the baseline case. For the B2 scenario, rainfall rose slightly above the mean for the baseline case in the current decade, but falls steadily thereafter to approximately 15% by the 2040s. Over the same period, temperature is expected to increase by 1.34C and 1.37C under A2 and B2 respectively. It is expected that any further increase in rainfall should have a deleterious effect on root crop production as a whole, since the above mentioned crops represent the majority of the root crops included in the study. Further expected increases in temperature will result in the ambient temperature being very close to the optimal end of the range for most of these crops. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative losses (2008$) for root crops is expected to be approximately 248.8 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 239.4 million USD under the B2 scenario. Relative to the 2005 catch for fish, there will be a decrease in catch potential of 10 - 20% by 2050 relative to 2005 catch potentials, other things remaining constant. By 2050 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, losses in real terms were estimated to be 160.2 million USD and 80.1 million USD respectively, at a 1% discount rate. For vegetables, the mean rainfall exceeds the optimal rainfall range for sweet peppers, hot peppers and melongene. However, while the optimal rainfall level for tomatoes is 3000mm/yr, other vegetables such as sweet peppers, hot peppers and ochroes have very low rainfall requirements (as low as 300 mm/yr). Therefore it is expected that any further decrease in rainfall should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production. It is expected that any further increase in temperature should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production, though model results indicated that as a group, an increase in temperature should have a positive impact on vegetable production. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative gains (2008$) for vegetables is expected to be approximately 54.9 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 49.1 million USD under the B2 scenario, given a 1% discount rate. For root crops, fisheries and vegetables combined, the cumulative loss under A2 is calculated as approximately 352.8 million USD and approximately 270.8 million USD under B2 by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively by 2050. Sea Level Rise (SLR) by 2050 is estimated to be 0.255 m under A2 and 0.215 m under B2. GIS estimation indicated that for a 0.255 m sea level rise, combined with a 0.5 m high tide, there would be no permanent inundation of agricultural land in Trinidad. The total inundation area is 1.18 km2. This occurs only in the Caroni Watershed, on the western coast of Trinidad, and the areas are outside the Caroni Swamp. Even with an additional rise of 0.5 m to simulate a high rainfall event, the estimated inundated area is 4.67 km2, but with no permanent inundation, though likely to be subject to flooding. Based on eleven (11) evaluation criteria, the top potential adaptation options were identified: 1. Use of water saving irrigation systems and water management systems e.g. drip irrigation; 2. Mainstream climate change issues into agricultural management; 3. Repair/maintain existing dams; 4. Alter crop calendar for short-term crops; 5. Adopt improved technologies for soil conservation; 6. Establish systems of food storage; 7. Promote water conservation – install on-farm water harvesting off roof tops; 8. Design and implement holistic water management plans for all competing uses; 9. Build on- farm water storage (ponds and tanks); 10. Agricultural drainage; and 11. Installation of greenhouses. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the Benefit-Cost Ratio are: (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Water Harvesting. However, the options with the highest net benefits are, (in order of priority): (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Use of drip irrigation. Based on the area burnt in Trinidad and Tobago between 2005 and 2009, the average annual loss due to fires is 1717.3 ha. At US$17.41 per carbon credit, this implies that for the total land lost to forest fires on average each year, the opportunity cost of carbon credit revenue is 74.3 million USD. If a teak reforestation programme is undertaken in Trinidad and Tobago, the net benefit of reforestation under a carbon credit programme would be 69 million USD cumulatively to 2050.

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The Bahamas is at great risk and vulnerability given its geographical features as a low-lying, sea encircled country. If projected sea level rise is reached by 2050, between 10-12% of territory will be lost, especially in coastal zones where the main tourism assets are located. Vulnerability could also be manifested if flight carbon emission taxes are established in the main source markets, representing an economic threat to the tourism sector for the islands. The impact of climate change on main tourism demand variables will cause some losses to the country‟s income and government revenues. This would be acting conjointly with some local threats to tourism assets and trends in future global tourism demand. The second and no less important threat is tropical cyclones, which may be associated with raising sea level. Estimations posited the amount of losses in excess of 2400 million US$ for the four decades under examination. It is to be pointed out that there is still a lack of comparatively accurate data collection and analysis on this subject, a point deserving more attention in order to deepen the understanding of, and to extract better lessons from these extreme events. In the same period, total estimated impacts of progressive climate change are between 17 and 19 billions of B$ with estimated discount rates applied. The Bahamas is a Small Island Developing State with low growth on GHG emissions (second in Latin America), as well as a relative short capacity to lower emissions in the future. The country has a relative delay in the application of renewable energy systems, a solution that, provided documented studies on-site, might turn out to be fundamental in the country‟s efforts to establish mitigation related policies. The Bahamas currently has institutions and organizations that deal with climate change-related issues and an important number of measures and courses of action have been set up by the government. Nevertheless, more coordination among them is needed and should include international institutions. This coordination is essential even for the first steps, i.e. to conduct studies with a bottom-up approach in order to draw more accurate programs on adaptation and mitigation. It is fundamental for tourism to keep track of potential losses in tourist attractions (and to act accordingly), related to correspondent losses in biodiversity, water resources and coastal erosion. Also, actions to fight climate change impacts might improve the islands security standards, quality of living and protect cultural and heritage assets. These elements may definitely shape the future of the country‟s competitiveness as a tourism destination. It is possible and necessary to decide about the options with good cost-benefit ratio and reasonable payback periods, notwithstanding that cost-benefit analysis requires more refined and accurate data to provide precise and locally adapted options.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Pacientes que fazem uso de cloroquina ou hidróxi-cloroquina, drogas que são freqüentemente administradas para o tratamento de artrite reumatóide, lúpus eritrematoso ou malária, podem sofrer alterações na visão de cores e na sensibilidade de contraste. O presente estudo avaliou a função visual destes pacientes em um estudo conjunto da Universidade de São Paulo (USP), em São Paulo, e da Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPA), em Belém. Trinta e dois pacientes usuários de cloroquina sem alterações no exame de fundo de olho foram avaliados em São Paulo (n=10, 38 a 71 anos, média=55,8 anos) e em Belém (n=22, 20 a 67 anos, média=40 anos). A dose acumulada de cloroquina prescrita foi de 45 a 430 g (média=213 g; dp=152 g) para o grupo de São Paulo, e de 36 a 540 g (média=174 g; dp=183 g) para o grupo de Belém. Os testes foram realizados monocularmente com o estado refracional corrigido. A discriminação de cor foi avaliada utilizando o Teste de Cor de Cambridge (CCT): o limiar de discriminação de cor foi mensurado primeiro nos eixos protano, deutano e tritano, e em seqüência, três elipses de MacAdam foram determinadas. A visão de cores dos pacientes também foi avaliada com testes de arranjo de cores: o teste de 100 matizes de Farnsworth-Munsell (FM100), o D15 de Farnsworth-Munsell, e o teste Lanthony Dessaturado (D15d). A sensibilidade de contraste foi também medida com grades senoidais preto-e-brancas em 22 pacientes. Os resultados foram comparados com controles sem patologias oftalmológicasou neuro-oftalomológicas. 24 pacientes apresentaram discromatopsia adquirida, com perdas seletivas (11 pessoas) ou difusas (13 pessoas). Embora as perdas estivessem presentes no FM100, não houve correlação entre o escore de erro do FM100 e a área elíptica medida pelo CCT. Além disso, três pacientes que tiveram escores normais no FM100 falharam para alcançar limiares normais no CCT. O teste de Lanthony foi menos sensível do que os outros dois testes, tal que falhou em indicar perda em cerca de metade dos pacientes afetados, e o D15 foi o teste menos sensível, deixando de indicar déficits em 9 de 10 pacientes. A sensibilidade de contraste esteve dentro dos valores normais para pacientes submetidos a este teste. A extensão das perdas na discriminação de cores foi positivamente correlacionada com a dose acumulada. O CCT é recomendado para o acompanhamento destes pacientes, pois forneceu dados quantitativos que podem ser diretamente interpretados no espaço cromático da CIE (Commission Internationelle d'Éclairage).

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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A recent trend in networked control systems (NCSs) is the use of wireless networks enabling interoperability between existing wired and wireless systems. One of the major challenges in these wireless NCSs (WNCSs) is to overcome the impact of the message loss that degrades the performance and stability of these systems. Moreover, this impact is greater when dealing with burst or successive message losses. This paper discusses and presents the experimental results of a compensation strategy to deal with this burst message loss problem in which a NCS mathematical model runs in parallel with the physical process, providing sensor virtual data in case of packet losses. Running in real-time inside the controller, the mathematical model is updated online with real control signals sent to the actuator, which provides better reliability for the estimated sensor feedback (virtual data) transmitted to the controller each time a message loss occurs. In order to verify the advantages of applying this model-based compensation strategy for burst message losses in WNCSs, the control performance of a motor control system using CAN and ZigBee networks is analyzed. Experimental results led to the conclusion that the developed compensation strategy provided robustness and could maintain the control performance of the WNCS against different message loss scenarios.

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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Produção Vegetal) - FCAV