Modeling of average growth curve in Santa Ines sheep using random regression models

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Genetic parameters of total milk yield and factors describing the shape of lactation curve in dairy buffaloes

The objective of this study was to apply factor analysis to describe lactation curves in dairy buffaloes in order to estimate the phenotypic and genetic association between common latent factors and cumulative milk yield. A total of 31 257 monthly test-day milk yield records from buffaloes belonging to herds located in the state of São Paulo were used to estimate two common latent factors, which were then analysed in a multi-trait animal model for estimating genetic parameters. Estimates of (co)variance components for the two common latent factors and cumulated 270-d milk yield were obtained by Bayesian inference using a multiple trait animal model. Contemporary group, number of milkings per day (two levels) and age of buffalo cow at calving (linear and quadratic) as covariate were included in the model as fixed effects. The additive genetic, permanent environmental and residual effects were included as random effects. The first common latent factor (F1) was associated with persistency of lactation and the second common latent factor (F2) with the level of production in early lactation. Heritability estimates for Fl and F2 were 0.12 and 0.07, respectively. Genetic correlation estimates between El and F2 with cumulative milk yield were positive and moderate (0.63 and 0.52). Multivariate statistics employing factor analysis allowed the extraction of two variables (latent factors) that described the shape of the lactation curve. It is expected that the response to selection to increase lactation persistency is higher than the response obtained from selecting animals to increase lactation peak. Selection for higher total milk yield would result in a favourable correlated response to increase the level of production in early lactation and the lactation persistency.

Use of glass transition temperature for stabilization of board's cracks of Eucalyptus grandis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Analysis of the E-J Curve of HTS Tapes Under DC and AC Magnetic Fields at 77 K

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Markers of uremia and pericardial effusion in peritoneal dialysis

Inadequate dialysis causes accumulation of toxic residues that may lead to the development of dialysis-associated pericardial effusion, but several other factors could be associated with this abnormality. The purpose of this study was to evaluate clinical risk factors to asymptomatic pericardial effusion in peritoneal dialysis.This cross-sectional study included 34 patients aged a parts per thousand yen18 years on peritoneal dialysis for at least 3 months, who showed no symptomatic pericardial effusion, hepatic cirrhosis, neoplasias, lupus or amputations, none in minoxidil use. Asymptomatic pericardial effusion was diagnosed by echocardiography. Risk factors were evaluated by logistic regression and Roc curve. Significance level was set at P < 0.05.Patient age was 51 +/- A 15.9 years. of the 34 patients enrolled, 16 were men and 11 diabetic. Five of them presented pericardial effusion. Logistic regression identifies low hemoglobin level (RR 0.454 CI 95%: 0.225-0.913; P = 0.027), low phase angle (RR 0.236 CI 95%: 0.057-0.984; P = 0.048) and low Kt/V (RR 0.001 CI 95%: 0.0-0.492; P = 0.03) as risk factors to pericardial effusion. Roc curve showed that hemoglobin levels below 12.2 g/dL, Kt/V lower than 1.9 and phase angle lower than 4.5A degrees were the best cutoffs to predict pericardial effusion. Four patients showed these three parameters in the unfavorable range, and all these four patients presented pericardial effusion. The other patient with pericardial effusion had two of these parameters reduced.These findings corroborate the hypothesis that uremia plays a significant role in the pathogenesis of dialysis-associated pericardial effusion.

Efficacy of the motile sperm organelle morphology examination (MSOME) in predicting pregnancy after intrauterine insemination

Background: Although the motile sperm organelle morphology examination (MSOME) was developed merely as a selection criterion, its application as a method for classifying sperm morphology may represent an improvement in the evaluation of semen quality. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of normal sperm morphology using MSOME with regard to clinical pregnancy (CP) after intrauterine insemination (IUI).Methods: A total of 156 IUI cycles that were performed in 111 couples were prospectively analysed. Each subject received 75 IU of recombinant FSH every second day from the third day of the cycle. Beginning on the 10th day of the cycle, follicular development was monitored by vaginal ultrasound. When one or two follicles measuring at least 17 mm were observed, recombinant hCG was administered, and IUI was performed 12-14 h and 36-40 h after hCG treatment. Prior to the IUI procedure, sperm samples were analysed by MSOME at 8400x magnification using an inverted microscope that was equipped with DIC/Nomarski differential interference contrast optics. A minimum of 200 motile spermatozoa per semen sample were evaluated, and the percentage of normal spermatozoa in each sample was determined.Results: Pregnancy occurred in 34 IUI cycles (CP rate per cycle: 21.8%, per patient: 30.6%). Based on the MSOME criteria, a significantly higher percentage of normal spermatozoa was found in the group of men in which the IUI cycles resulted in pregnancy (2.6+/-3.1%) compared to the group that did not achieve pregnancy (1.2+/-1.7%; P = 0.019). Logistic regression showed that the percentage of normal cells in the MSOME was a determining factor for the likelihood of clinical pregnancy (OR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.08 to 1.51; P = 0.003). The ROC curve revealed an area under the curve of 0.63 and an optimum cut-off point of 2% of normal sperm morphology. At this cut-off threshold, using the percentage of normal sperm morphology by MSOME to predict pregnancy was 50% sensitive with a 40% positive predictive value and 79% specificity with an 85% negative predictive value. The efficacy of using the percentage of normal sperm morphology by MSOME in predicting pregnancy was 65%.Conclusions: The present findings support the use of high-magnification microscopy both for selecting spermatozoa and as a routine method for analysing semen before performing IUI.

A new ovarian response prediction index (ORPI): implications for individualised controlled ovarian stimulation

Background: The objective was to present a new ovarian response prediction index (ORPI), which was based on anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) levels, antral follicle count (AFC) and age, and to verify whether it could be a reliable predictor of the ovarian stimulation response.Methods: A total of 101 patients enrolled in the ICSI programme were included. The ORPI values were calculated by multiplying the AMH level (ng/ml) by the number of antral follicles (2-9 mm), and the result was divided by the age (years) of the patient (ORPI=(AMH x AFC)/Patient age).Results: The regression analysis demonstrated significant (P<0.0001) positive correlations between the ORPI and the total number of oocytes and of MII oocytes collected. The logistic regression revealed that the ORPI values were significantly associated with the likelihood of pregnancy (odds ratio (OR): 1.86; P=0.006) and collecting greater than or equal to 4 oocytes (OR: 49.25; P<0.0001), greater than or equal to 4 MII oocytes (OR: 6.26; P<0.0001) and greater than or equal to 15 oocytes (OR: 6.10; P<0.0001). Regarding the probability of collecting greater than or equal to 4 oocytes according to the ORPI value, the ROC curve showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.91 and an efficacy of 88% at a cut-off of 0.2. In relation to the probability of collecting greater than or equal to 4 MII oocytes according to the ORPI value, the ROC curve had an AUC of 0.84 and an efficacy of 81% at a cut-off of 0.3. The ROC curve for the probability of collecting greater than or equal to 15 oocytes resulted in an AUC of 0.89 and an efficacy of 82% at a cut-off of 0.9. Finally, regarding the probability of pregnancy occurrence according to the ORPI value, the ROC curve showed an AUC of 0.74 and an efficacy of 62% at a cut-off of 0.3.Conclusions: The ORPI exhibited an excellent ability to predict a low ovarian response and a good ability to predict a collection of greater than or equal to 4 MII oocytes, an excessive ovarian response and the occurrence of pregnancy in infertile women. The ORPI might be used to improve the cost-benefit ratio of ovarian stimulation regimens by guiding the selection of medications and by modulating the doses and regimens according to the actual needs of the patients.

Evaluation of water beef buffalo from birth to two years using different growth curves

The buffalo is a domestic animal species of growing world-wide importance. Research to improve genetic improvement programs is important to maintain the productivity of buffalo. The objective this research was to evaluate the growth of Brazilian buffalo to two years of age with different growth curves. Growth curves consolidate the information contained in the weight-age data into three or four biologically meaningful parameters. The data included 31,452 weights at birth and 120, 205, 365, 550 and 730 days of buffalo (n = 5,178) raised on pasture without supplementation. Logistic, Gompertz, quadratic logarithmic, and linear hyperbolic curves (designated L, G, QL, and LH, respectively) were fitted to the data by using proc NUN of SAS (SAS Institute, Inc., Cary, NC, USA). The parameters estimates for L [WT= A * (((1 + exp (-k * AGE)))**-m)] were A = 865.1 +/- 5.42; k= 0.0028 +/- 0.00002; M= 3.808 +/- 0.007; R(2) = 0.95. For G [WT= A * exp (-b * exp (-k * age)] the parameters estimates were A= 967.6 +/- 7.23; k = 0.00217 +/- 0.000015; b = -2.8152 +/- 0.00532. For QL [WT= A + b*age + k*(age*age) + m*log (age)] parameters estimates were A= 37.41 +/- 0.48; k= 0.00019 +/- 6.4E(-6); b= 0.539 +/- 0.006; m= 2.32 +/- 0.23; R(2)=0.96. For LH [WT= A + b*AGE + k*(1/AGE)] the parameters estimates were A= 23.15 +/- 0.44; k=15.16 +/- 0.66; b= 0.707 +/- 0.001; R(2)= 0.96. Each of these curves fit these data equally well and could be used for characterizing growth to two years in beef buffalo.

CORRELATING THE CURVE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE DISTAL of THE CANINES TO THE COMBINED WIDTH of THE SIX ANTERIOR TEETH WHEN SELECTING DENTURE TEETH FOR DIFFERENT ETHNIC GROUPS

Statement of problem. To select the width of denture teeth, the distance between the marks indicating the location of the canines is usually measured around the curvature of the wax occlusal rim; however, most manufacturers' mold charts provide the measurements of the artificial 6 anterior teeth as if they were on a straight line.Purpose. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the curve distance between the distal surfaces of the maxillary canines can be related to the combined width (straight measurement) of the 6 anterior teeth in 4 ethnic groups.Material and methods. Maxillary stone casts were obtained for 160 dentate subjects of 4 ethnic groups (40 whites, 40 blacks, 40 multiracial - descendants of white and black parents, and 40 Asians). The width of each maxillary anterior tooth was measured on the casts with sliding calipers. The combined width of the 6 anterior teeth (CW) corresponded to the sum of the width of each anterior tooth. The curve distance between the distal surfaces of the canines (CD) was measured by using dental tape and sliding calipers. The Pearson correlation coefficient and regression analysis were used to evaluate the relationship between CD and CW in each ethnic group (alpha=.05).Results. The mean CD and CW values (in mm) obtained were: whites (CD=52.12; CW=45.65); blacks (CD=56.10; CW=48.13); multiracial (CD=53.58; CW=46.54); and Asians (CD=53.29; CW=46.60). Significant (P<.001) correlations between CD and CW measurements were observed for all ethnic groups studied (whites, r=0.957; blacks, r=0.803; multiracial, r=0.917; and Asians, r=0.881). The following linear regression equations were obtained: whites [CD=1.1(CW)+0.3]; blacks [CD=0.95(CW)+9.3]; multiracial [CD=1.2(CW)-1.1]; and Asians [CD=1.0(CW)+5].Conclusions. The curve distance between the distal surfaces of the maxillary canines can be accurately related to the combined width of the 6 anterior teeth in the selection of denture teeth for the studied ethnic groups. (J Prosthet Dent 2012;107:400-404)

Logistic regression analysis of potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism

Objective: To identify potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE), establishing a mathematical model to predict the risk for fatal PTE and nonfatal PTE.Method: the reports on 4,813 consecutive autopsies performed from 1979 to 1998 in a Brazilian tertiary referral medical school were reviewed for a retrospective study. From the medical records and autopsy reports of the 512 patients found with macroscopically and/or microscopically,documented PTE, data on demographics, underlying diseases, and probable PTE site of origin were gathered and studied by multiple logistic regression. Thereafter, the jackknife method, a statistical cross-validation technique that uses the original study patients to validate a clinical prediction rule, was performed.Results: the autopsy rate was 50.2%, and PTE prevalence was 10.6%. In 212 cases, PTE was the main cause of death (fatal PTE). The independent variables selected by the regression significance criteria that were more likely to be associated with fatal PTE were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.03), trauma (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 2.20 to 32.81), right-sided cardiac thrombi (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.02 to 3.77), pelvic vein thrombi (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.19 to 10.05); those most likely to be associated with nonfatal PTE were systemic arterial hypertension (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.80), pneumonia (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.71), and sepsis (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.40). The results obtained from the application of the equation in the 512 cases studied using logistic regression analysis suggest the range in which logit p > 0.336 favors the occurrence of fatal PTE, logit p < - 1.142 favors nonfatal PTE, and logit P with intermediate values is not conclusive. The cross-validation prediction misclassification rate was 25.6%, meaning that the prediction equation correctly classified the majority of the cases (74.4%).Conclusions: Although the usefulness of this method in everyday medical practice needs to be confirmed by a prospective study, for the time being our results suggest that concerning prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of PTE, strict attention should be given to those patients presenting the variables that are significant in the logistic regression model.

Choosing between Cox proportional hazards and logistic models for interval-censored data via bootstrap

This work develops a new methodology in order to discriminate models for interval-censored data based on bootstrap residual simulation by observing the deviance difference from one model in relation to another, according to Hinde (1992). Generally, this sort of data can generate a large number of tied observations and, in this case, survival time can be regarded as discrete. Therefore, the Cox proportional hazards model for grouped data (Prentice & Gloeckler, 1978) and the logistic model (Lawless, 1982) can befitted by means of generalized linear models. Whitehead (1989) considered censoring to be an indicative variable with a binomial distribution and fitted the Cox proportional hazards model using complementary log-log as a link function. In addition, a logistic model can be fitted using logit as a link function. The proposed methodology arises as an alternative to the score tests developed by Colosimo et al. (2000), where such models can be obtained for discrete binary data as particular cases from the Aranda-Ordaz distribution asymmetric family. These tests are thus developed with a basis on link functions to generate such a fit. The example that motivates this study was the dataset from an experiment carried out on a flax cultivar planted on four substrata susceptible to the pathogen Fusarium oxysoprum. The response variable, which is the time until blighting, was observed in intervals during 52 days. The results were compared with the model fit and the AIC values.

Critical points in logistic growth curves and treatment comparisons

Several biological phenomena have a behavior over time mathematically characterized by a strong increasing function in the early stages of development, then by a less pronounced growth, sometimes showing stability. The separation between these phases is very important to the researcher, since the maintenance of a less productive phase results in uneconomical activity. In this report we present methods of determining critical points in logistic functions that separate the early stages of growth from the asymptotic phase, with the aim of establishing a stopping critical point in the growth and on this basis determine differences in treatments. The logistic growth model is fitted to experimental data of imbibition of arariba seeds (Centrolobium tomentosum). To determine stopping critical points the following methods were used: i) accelerating growth function, ii) tangent at the inflection point, iii) segmented regression; iv) modified segmented regression; v) non-significant difference; and vi) non-significant difference by simulation. The analysis of variance of the abscissas and ordinates of the breakpoints was performed with the objective of comparing treatments and methods used to determine the critical points. The methods of segmented regression and of the tangent at the inflection point lead to early stopping points, in comparison with other methods, with proportions ordinate/asymptote lower than 0.90. The non-significant difference method by simulation had higher values of abscissas for stopping point, with an average proportion ordinate/asymptote equal to 0.986. An intermediate proportion of 0.908 was observed for the acceleration function method.

First order reversal curve analysis of nanocrystalline Pd80Co20 alloy films

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Logistic regression to estimate the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to environmental and behavioral variables

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Parâmetros genéticos da taxa de maturação e do peso assintótico de fêmeas da raça Nelore

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)