Evaluating the Small Population Paradigm for Rare Large-Bodied Woodpeckers, with Implications for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker

Six large-bodied, ≥ 120 g, woodpecker species are listed as near-threatened to critically endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The small population paradigm assumes that these populations are likely to become extinct without an increase in numbers, but the combined influences of initial population size and demographic rates, i.e., annual adult survival and fecundity, may drive population persistence for these species. We applied a stochastic, stage-based single-population model to available demographic rates for Dryocopus and Campephilus woodpeckers. In particular, we determined the change in predicted extinction rate, i.e., proportion of simulated populations that went extinct within 100 yr, to concomitant changes in six input parameters. To our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate the combined importance of initial population size and demographic rates for the persistence of large-bodied woodpeckers. Under a worse-case scenario, the median time to extinction was 7 yr (range: 1–32). Across the combinations of other input values, increasing initial population size by one female induced, on average, 0.4%–3.2% (range: 0%–28%) reduction in extinction rate. Increasing initial population size from 5–30 resulted in extinction rates < 0.05 under limited conditions: (1) all input values were intermediate, or (2) Allee effect present and annual adult survival ≥ 0.8. Based on our model, these species can persist as rare, as few as five females, and thus difficult-to-detect, populations provided they maintain ≥ 1.1 recruited females annually per adult female and an annual adult survival rate ≥ 0.8. Athough a demographic-based population viability analysis (PVA) is useful to predict how extinction rate changes across scenarios for life-history attributes, the next step for modeling these populations should incorporate more easily acquired data on changes in patch occupancy to make predictions about patch colonization and extinction rates.

Local adaptation in moss life histories: population-level variation and a reciprocal transplant experiment

We examine the extent of population-level differentiation in life history traits of Pogonatum aloides, Polytrichum commune and Polytrichum juniperinum (Polytrichaceae) between upland and lowland localities within Britain. Reciprocal transplant studies are used to estimate the relative importance of genetic versus environmental effects on observed differences. We demonstrate significant life history differentiation between moss populations, and show that at least some of these are genetically determined, although environment and phenotypic plasticity are also significant components of the observed variation. The transplant experiments indicate divergence among populations in plasticity of male reproductive effort and of investment in vegetative shoots by females. Two tradeoffs are identified; one between the number and the size of spores, and the second between reproduction by spores versus vegetative reproduction. The patterns of life history variation observed between populations of Polytrichum juniperinum are consistent with selection along these implied tradeoff curves, and we propose that they reflect selective pressures arising from the spatial and demographic distribution of mortality at upland versus lowland sites. The results underscore the need for more studies of intra-specific life history variation in mosses.

Quality of life and its association with cardiovascular risk factors in a community health care program population

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate quality of life in a population that attended a specific community event on health care education, and to investigate the association of their quality of life with the presence of cardiovascular risk factors INTRODUCTION: Interest in health-related quality of life is growing worldwide as a consequence of increasing rates of chronic disease. However, little is known about the association between quality of life and cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: This study included 332 individuals. Demographics, blood pressure, body mass index, and casual glycemia were evaluated. The brief version of the World Health Organization Quality of Life questionnaire on quality of life was given to them. The medians of the scores obtained for the physical, psychological, emotional, and environmental domains were used as cutoffs to define higher and lower scores. A multinomial logistic regression model was used to define the parameters associated with lower scores. RESULTS: Diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, and obesity were associated with lower scores in the physical domain. Dyslipidemia was also associeted with lower scores in the psychological domain. Male gender and regular physical activity had protective effects on quality of life. Aging was inversely associated with decreased quality of life in the environmental domain. CONCLUSION: The presence of cardiovascular risk factors is related to a decreased quality of life. Conversely, male gender and regular physical activity had protective effects on quality of life. These findings suggest that exercising should be further promoted by health-related public programs, with a special focus on women.

Seasonal population dynamics in Lucilia eximia (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Seasonal contrasts in abundance and reproductive parameters of Penilia avirostris (Cladocera, Ctenopoda) in a coastal subtropical area

We studied the population dynamics and the reproductive biology of Penilia avirostris during three consecutive years on the inner shelf off Ubatuba, Brazil. Penilia avirostris individuals and its eggs and embryos were counted, measured, and classified into stages. The species occurred throughout the studied period, in a wide temperature range (14.8-28.2A degrees C). Cladoceran densities were usually higher (> 2,000 ind m(-3)) in warm seasons, when the water column was stratified as a consequence of bottom intrusions of the cold- and nutrient-rich South Atlantic Central Water. Juveniles, non-reproducing females, and parthenogenic females were the dominant developmental stages. Males and gamogenic females were rare and only occurred when females reached peak abundances. This suggests that in tropical and subtropical coastal seas gamogenesis in P. avirostris is not as common as in temperate seas, but may play a significant role in the density-dependent control of the population preceding unfavourable periods.

Allometry and population structure of Nicolea uspiana (Polychaeta: Terebellidae)

The relative growth and population structure of the terebellid Nicolea uspiana were investigated in the intertidal zone of a rocky shore on the south-east coast of Brazil, from May 2006 to May 2007. Eight hundred and forty-seven individuals of N. uspiana were analysed: 391 males, 163 females, and 293 immatures. Although significant differences in some morphometric parameters were found, there was no sexual dimorphism between males and females. There were differences in total length, width of segments, and length of the notopodial region between matures and immatures. The negative allometry of the total length in relation to five other parameters showed that this feature is a good measure for estimating the individual size, which was then used in the analysis of population structure. This population of N. uspiana showed a bimodal size frequency distribution, with immature and mature individuals found during the entire year. This pattern indicates continuous reproduction, with each cohort growing for at least three to four months and being responsible for two consecutive settlement peaks.

Age, Growth and Population Structure of Jumbo Flying Squid, Dosidicus Gigas, Based on Statolith Microstructure Off the Exclusive Economic Zone of Chilean Waters

The jumbo flying squid, Dosidicus gigas, support an important squid fishery off the Exclusive Economic Zone of Chilean waters. However, we only have limited information about their biology. In this study, age, growth and population structure of D. gigas were studied using statoliths from 333 specimens (386 females and 147 males) randomly sampled in the Chinese squid jigging surveys from 2007 to 2008 off the Exclusive Economic Zone of Chile. Mantle lengths (MLs) of the sample ranged from 206 to 702 mm, and their ages were estimated from 150 to 307 days for females and from 127 to 302 days for males. At least two spawning groups were identified, the main spawning peak tended to occur between August and November (austral spring group), and the secondary peak appeared during March to June (austral autumn group). The ML-age relationship was best modelled by a linear function for the austral spring group and a power function for the austral autumn group, and the body weight (BW)-age relationship was best described by an exponential function for both the groups. Instantaneous relative growth rates and absolute growth rates for ML and BW did not differ significantly between the two groups. The growth rate of D. gigas tended to be high at young stages, and then decreased after the sub-adult stage (>180 days old). This study suggests large spatial and temporal variability in key life history parameters of D. gigas, calling for the collection of more data with fine spatial and temporal scales to further improve our understanding of the fishery biology of D. gigas.

Estimates of sex- and age-class-specific survival probabilities for a southern Great Barrier Reef green sea turtle population

Sex- and age-class-specific survival probabilities of a southern Great Barrier Reef green sea turtle population were estimated using a capture - mark - recapture (CMR) study and a Cormack - Jolly - Seber (CJS) modelling approach. The CMR history profiles for 954 individual turtles tagged over a 9-year period ( 1984 - 1992) were classified into three age classes ( adult, subadult, juvenile) based on somatic growth and reproductive traits. Reduced-parameter CJS models, accounting for constant survival and time-specific recapture, fitted best for all age classes. There were no significant sex-specific differences in either survival or recapture probabilities for any age class. Mean annual adult survival was estimated at 0.9482 (95% CI: 0.92 - 0.98) and was significantly higher than survival for either subadults or juveniles. Mean annual subadult survival was 0.8474 ( 95% CI: 0.79 - 0.91), which was not significantly different from mean annual juvenile survival estimated at 0.8804 ( 95% CI: 0.84 - 0.93). The time-specific adult recapture probabilities were a function of sampling effort but this was not the case for either juveniles or subadults. The sampling effort effect was accounted for explicitly in the estimation of adult survival and recapture probabilities. These are the first comprehensive sex- and age-class-specific survival and recapture probability estimates for a green sea turtle population derived from a long-term CMR program.

Genetic resource impacts of habitat loss and degradation; reconciling empirical evidence and predicted theory for neotropical trees

The theoretical impacts of anthropogenic habitat degradation on genetic resources have been well articulated. Here we use a simulation approach to assess the magnitude of expected genetic change, and review 31 studies of 23 neotropical tree species to assess whether empirical case studies conform to theory. Major differences in the sensitivity of measures to detect the genetic health of degraded populations were obvious. Most studies employing genetic diversity (nine out of 13) found no significant consequences, yet most that assessed progeny inbreeding (six out of eight), reproductive output (seven out of 10) and fitness (all six) highlighted significant impacts. These observations are in line with theory, where inbreeding is observed immediately following impact, but genetic diversity is lost slowly over subsequent generations, which for trees may take decades. Studies also highlight the ecological, not just genetic, consequences of habitat degradation that can cause reduced seed set and progeny fitness. Unexpectedly, two studies examining pollen flow using paternity analysis highlight an extensive network of gene flow at smaller spatial scales (less than 10 km). Gene flow can thus mitigate against loss of genetic diversity and assist in long-term population viability, even in degraded landscapes. Unfortunately, the surveyed studies were too few and heterogeneous to examine concepts of population size thresholds and genetic resilience in relation to life history. Future suggested research priorities include undertaking integrated studies on a range of species in the same landscapes; better documentation of the extent and duration of impact; and most importantly, combining neutral marker, pollination dynamics, ecological consequences, and progeny fitness assessment within single studies.

Complex life cycles and offspring provisioning in marine invertebrates

Offspring size can have pervasive effects throughout an organism's life history. Mothers can make either a few large or many small offspring, and the balance between these extremes is determined by the relationship between offspring size and performance. This relationship in turn is thought to be determined by the offspring's environment. Recently, it has become clear that events in one life-history stage can strongly affect performance in another. Given these strong carryover effects, we asked whether events in the larval phase can change the relationship between offspring size and performance in the adult phase. We manipulated the length of the larval period in the bryozoan Bugula neritina and then examined the relationship between offspring size and various parameters of adult performance under field conditions. We found that despite the adult stage being outplanted into identical conditions, different offspring sizes were predicted to be optimal, depending on the experience of those adults as larvae. This work highlights the fact that the strong phenotypic links between life-history stages may result in optimal offspring size being highly unpredictable for organisms with complex life cycles.

Morfometria, variação anual no peso e demografia do Tico-tico-rei-cinza (Lanio pileatus: thraupidae) em dois ambientes de caatinga no nordeste do Brasil

The caatinga is considered the only exclusively Brazilian biome, with a total area of 735.000km². It is estimated that about 59% of this area has already been removed and only 2% are protected in conservations units. The region is characteristic by strong seasonality and heterogeneity in their environments. This paper sets generate information on morphological and population patterns Lanio pilatus in two areas of caatinga of Estação Ecológica do Seridó (ESEC – Seridó), Serra Negra do Norte - RN. Data collection was performed in six phases between July 2012 and December 2014, covering the end of the dry and rainy seasons in the region. The captures were performed with nets and individuals captured were marked with metal rings and measured (weight, wing length, tail, tarsus, culmen and tip of the bill to nostril). Through these measures, we observed that only males of open area range in weight during the dry and rainy season, youngs were significantly lower for all parameters measured, and males were larger than females in three characteristics (weight, wing length and tail) in open area and only one (wing length) in the closed area. The population parameters were generated from the mark-capture-recapture technique by program MARK, using the techniques of robust design and CJS. The survival probability of detection and population estimates varied with time. Only individuals of open area fluctuated in their estimates during the study. Overall, the environment was a great mediator of results which increases the need for more studies on the life history of the species in the region.

Dynamique d’une population faunique en expansion sous différents scénarios climatiques : le dindon sauvage (Meleagris gallopavo)

Les changements climatiques récents ont mené à l’expansion de la répartition de plusieurs espèces méridionales, mais ont aussi causé l’extinction locale d’espèces se retrouvant à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ces populations en expansion peuvent favoriser différentes stratégies d’histoire de vie en répondant à différents facteurs limitants. Dans cette thèse, je vise à déterminer et quantifier l’effet du climat et des évènements extrêmes sur le cycle de vie complet d’une espèce en expansion (le dindon sauvage) pour comprendre les changements au niveau populationnel ainsi que les mécanismes impliqués dans l’expansion de la distribution d’une espèce. J’ai défini les évènements extrêmes de pluie, d’épaisseur de neige au sol et de température, comme un évènement dont la fréquence est plus rare que le 10e et 90e percentile. En utilisant l’approche « Measure-Understand-Predict » (MUP), j’ai tout d’abord suivi trois populations le long d’un gradient latitudinal de sévérité hivernale pour mesurer l’effet de variables météorologiques sur la dynamique des populations. La survie des dindons sauvages diminuait drastiquement lorsque l’accumulation de neige au sol dépassait 30 cm pour une période de 10 jours et diminuait également avec la température. Au printemps, la persistance de la neige affectait négativement le taux d’initiation de la nidification et l’augmentation de la pluie diminuait la survie des nids. Dans une deuxième étape, j’ai examiné l’impact des évènements climatiques extrêmes et des processus démographiques impliqués dans l’expansion du dindon, liés à la théorie des histoires de vie pour comprendre la relation entre la dynamique de ces populations en expansions avec le climat. J’ai démontré que la fréquence des évènements extrêmes hivernaux et, d’une façon moins importante, les évènements extrêmes estivaux limitaient l’expansion nordique des dindons sauvages. J’ai appuyé, à l’aide de données empiriques et de modélisation, les hypothèses de la théorie classique des invasions biologiques en montrant que les populations en établissement priorisaient les paramètres reproducteurs tandis que la survie adulte était le paramètre démographique affectant le plus la dynamique des populations bien établies. De plus, les populations les plus au nord étaient composées d’individus plus jeunes ayant une espérance de vie plus faible, mais avaient un potentiel d’accroissement plus élevé que les populations établies, comme le suggère cette théorie. Finalement, j’ai projeté l’impact de la récolte sur la dynamique des populations de même que le taux de croissance de cette espèce en utilisant les conditions climatiques futures projetées par les modèles de l’IPCC. Les populations en établissement avaient un taux de récolte potentiel plus élevé, mais la proportion de mâles adultes, possédant des caractéristiques recherchées par les chasseurs, diminuait plus rapidement que dans les populations établies. Dans le futur, la fréquence des évènements extrêmes de pluie devrait augmenter tandis que la fréquence des évènements extrêmes de température hivernale et d’accumulation de neige au sol devraient diminuer après 2060, limitant probablement l’expansion nordique du dindon sauvage jusqu’en 2100. Cette thèse améliore notre compréhension des effets météorologiques et du climat sur l’expansion de la répartition des espèces ainsi que les mécanismes démographiques impliqués, et nous a permis de prédire la probabilité de l’expansion nordique de la répartition du dindon sauvage en réponse aux changements climatiques.

Biologia reprodutiva, crescimento corporal e parâmetros demográficos de Cavia magna em uma ilha estuarina do extremo sul do Brasil

A teoria da história de vida tem como objetivo compreender os fatores que produzem variações na taxa de sobrevivência, tamanho no nascimento, idade de maturação, sazonalidade na reprodução, longevidade, razão sexual da prole. O gênero Cavia pallas 1776 apresenta a maior distribuição dentro da subfamília Cavinae, sendo composto por seis espécies, dentre elas Cavia magna, a qual habita regiões de restinga próximas a estuários ou lagos do norte do Uruguai ao sul do Brasil. Durante esse trabalho avaliamos os padrões da história de vida de uma população de Cavia magna da Ilha dos Marinheiros, RS, Brasil, devido ao fato de se tratar de uma espécie com baixa taxa reprodutiva, distribuição geográfica restrita, e estar exposta a alta pressão de predação. Para isso foi realizado um programa de captura-marcação-recaptura, durante 13 meses no qual foram capturados 129 animais, sendo 63 fêmeas e 66 machos. As longevidades máximas registradas, foram 233 dias para uma fêmea e 321 dias para um macho. Foram encontradas 13 fêmeas grávidas ou lactantes, dentre elas 9 estavam grávidas, sendo que 6 estavam prenhas de 2 filhotes e 3 estavam prenhas de 1 filhote apenas. Vários parâmetros foram testados, para estimar a taxa de sobrevivência e captura ,utilizamos o programa Mark, o método jacknife um modelo probabilístico, que permite heterogeneidade individual nas taxas de captura também foi utilizado. Não houve diferenças significativas no número de machos e fêmeas, a razão sexual foi 1:1. Em relação a estrutura etária, a população foi composta por adultos (82%) e a densidade populacional foi de 30 animais por hectare.

Aspects of the biology of the yabby Trypea australiensis (Dana) (Decapoda : Thalassinidea) and the potential of burrow counts as an indirect measure of population density

The thalassinidean shrimp Trypea australiensis (the yabby) commonly occurs on intertidal sandflats and subtidal regions of sheltered embayments and estuaries along the east coast of Australia and is harvested commercially and recreationally for use as bait by anglers. The potential for counts of burrow openings to provide a reliable indirect estimate of the abundance of yabbies was examined on intertidal sandflats on North Stradbroke Island (Queensland, Australia). The relationship between the number of burrow openings and the abundance of yabbies was generally poor and also varied significantly through time, casting doubt on previous estimates of abundance for this species based on unvalidated hole counts. Spatial and temporal variation in population density, the size at maturity and the reproductive period of the yabby were also assessed. Except for an initial peak in abundance as a result of recruitment, the density of yabbies was constant throughout the study but considerably less than that estimated from a previous study in the same area. Ovigerous females were recorded at 3 mm carapace length (CL) which is smaller than previously recorded for this species and thalassinideans in general. Small ovigerous females were found throughout the study, including the summer months, which is unusual for thalassinideans in the intertidal zone. It was hypothesised that in the intertidal zone, small female yabbies may be able to balance the metabolic demands of reproduction and respiration at higher temperatures than can larger females allowing them to reproduce in the warmer months.

Population demography and spatial distribution of the mantis shrimp Squilla biformis (Stomatopoda, Squillidae) from Pacific Costa Rica

The mantis shrimp Squilla biformis is the most conspicuous and abundant stomatopod captured during benthic trawling operations off the Pacific coast of Costa Rica. Due to its abundance, this species is considered a potential fisheries resource for the region. Nevertheless, its life history is practically unknown. The present study describes the population demography, spatial distribution and behaviour of S. biformis from Pacific Costa Rica. The population was principally composed of individuals between 20 and 32 mm carapace length (CL), forming 2 age groups. Individuals of 35 to 45 mm CL and > 45 mm CL were poorly represented. We assume that larger individuals are more frequent at greater depths (probably on the continental slope), thus out of the reach of the fishing vessels used in our study. Males outnumbered females, as observed in other stomatopods. Visual evidence of their behaviour demonstrates that the adults in this species possess a benthic and pelagic life style. Largest numbers of individuals (50% of the total) were found between 240 to 260 m, the same bathymetric range that was historically occupied by commercial shrimps. This shift may be related to intense fishing activities. We observed a synchronized moulting of females and males during less luminous (third and fourth) lunar phases. The evolutionary development of a group moulting system could confer advantages to S. biformis in comparison to other stomatopods whose moulting process is individual and asynchronous.