Validation of the Short-Version of Rose Angina Questionnaire in Brazil

Background: Stable angina pectoris is a serious condition with few epidemiological studies in Brazil. Objective: To validate the short-version of the Rose angina questionnaire in Brazilian Portuguese for its implementation in surveys and longitudinal studies. Methods: A total of 116 consecutive patients from an outpatient clinic without prior myocardial infarction and/or coronary revascularization were enrolled for application of three questions of the Rose angina questionnaire addressing chest pain after exertion. We used the treadmill test as the gold standard with the Ellestad protocol. Results: The short-version of the Rose angina questionnaire of the 116 subjects submitted to the exercise treadmill test disclosed 89.7% of accuracy, 25% of sensitivity, 92.0% of specificity, 10.0% of positive predictive value, 97.2% of negative predictive value, and 3.1 of positive likelihood ratio and 0.82 of negative likelihood ratio. Conclusion: The Portuguese version with three items of the Rose angina questionnaire is suitable for epidemiological purposes. (Arq Bras Cardiol 2012; 99(5): 1056-1059)

Influence diagnostics in heteroscedastic and/or autoregressive nonlinear elliptical models for correlated data

In this paper, we propose nonlinear elliptical models for correlated data with heteroscedastic and/or autoregressive structures. Our aim is to extend the models proposed by Russo et al. [22] by considering a more sophisticated scale structure to deal with variations in data dispersion and/or a possible autocorrelation among measurements taken throughout the same experimental unit. Moreover, to avoid the possible influence of outlying observations or to take into account the non-normal symmetric tails of the data, we assume elliptical contours for the joint distribution of random effects and errors, which allows us to attribute different weights to the observations. We propose an iterative algorithm to obtain the maximum-likelihood estimates for the parameters and derive the local influence curvatures for some specific perturbation schemes. The motivation for this work comes from a pharmacokinetic indomethacin data set, which was analysed previously by Bocheng and Xuping [1] under normality.

Procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive Protein (CRP) as severe systemic infection markers in febrile neutropenic adults

Abstract Background Procalcitonin (PCT) is an inflammatory marker that has been used as indicator of severe bacterial infection. We evaluated the concentrations of PCT as a marker for systemic infection compared to C-reactive protein (CRP) in patients neutropenic febrile. Methods 52 adult patients were enrolled in the study. Blood sample was collected in order to determine the serum concentrations of PCT, CRP and other hematological parameters at the onset of fever. The patients were divided into 2 groups, one with severe infection (n = 26) and the other in which the patients did not present such an infection (n = 26). Then PCT and CRP concentrations at the fever onset were compared between groups using non parametric statistical tests, ROC curve, sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratio, and Spearman's correlation coefficient. Results The mean of PCT was significantly higher in the group with severe infection (6.7 ng/mL versus 0.6 ng/mL – p = 0.0075) comparing with CRP. Serum concentrations of 0.245 ng/mL of PCT displayed 100% de sensitivity and 69.2% specificity. PCT concentrations of 2,145 ng/mL presented a likelihood ratio of 13, which was not observed for any concentration of CRP. Conclusion PCT seems to be an useful marker for the diagnosis of systemic infection in febrile neutropenic patients, probably better than CRP.

Assessing malaria transmission in a low endemicity area of north-western Peru

Background Where malaria endemicity is low, control programmes need increasingly sensitive tools for monitoring malaria transmission intensity (MTI) and to better define health priorities. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in a low endemicity area of the Peruvian north-western coast to assess the MTI using both molecular and serological tools. Methods Epidemiological, parasitological and serological data were collected from 2,667 individuals in three settlements of Bellavista district, in May 2010. Parasite infection was detected using microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Antibodies to Plasmodium vivax merozoite surface protein-119 (PvMSP119) and to Plasmodium falciparum glutamate-rich protein (PfGLURP) were detected by ELISA. Risk factors for exposure to malaria (seropositivity) were assessed by multivariate survey logistic regression models. Age-specific antibody prevalence of both P. falciparum and P. vivax were analysed using a previously published catalytic conversion model based on maximum likelihood for generating seroconversion rates (SCR). Results The overall parasite prevalence by microscopy and PCR were extremely low: 0.3 and 0.9%, respectively for P. vivax, and 0 and 0.04%, respectively for P. falciparum, while seroprevalence was much higher, 13.6% for P. vivax and 9.8% for P. falciparum. Settlement, age and occupation as moto-taxi driver during previous year were significantly associated with P. falciparum exposure, while age and distance to the water drain were associated with P. vivax exposure. Likelihood ratio tests supported age seroprevalence curves with two SCR for both P. vivax and P. falciparum indicating significant changes in the MTI over time. The SCR for PfGLURP was 19-fold lower after 2002 as compared to before (λ1 = 0.022 versus λ2 = 0.431), and the SCR for PvMSP119 was four-fold higher after 2006 as compared to before (λ1 = 0.024 versus λ2 = 0.006). Conclusion Combining molecular and serological tools considerably enhanced the capacity of detecting current and past exposure to malaria infections and related risks factors in this very low endemicity area. This allowed for an improved characterization of the current human reservoir of infections, largely hidden and heterogeneous, as well as providing insights into recent changes in species specific MTIs. This approach will be of key importance for evaluating and monitoring future malaria elimination strategies.

Role of soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 for diagnosing ventilator-associated pneumonia after cardiac surgery: an observational study

Abstract Background The diagnosis of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a challenge, particularly after cardiac surgery. The use of biological markers of infection has been suggested to improve the accuracy of VAP diagnosis. We aimed to evaluate the usefulness of soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells (sTREM)-1 in the diagnosis of VAP following cardiac surgery. Methods This was a prospective observational cohort study of children with congenital heart disease admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) after surgery and who remained intubated and mechanically ventilated for at least 24 hours postoperatively. VAP was defined by the 2007 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria. Blood, modified bronchoalveolar lavage (mBAL) fluid and exhaled ventilator condensate (EVC) were collected daily, starting immediately after surgery until the fifth postoperative day or until extubation for measurement of sTREM-1. Results Thirty patients were included, 16 with VAP. Demographic variables, Pediatric Risk of Mortality (PRISM) and Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS)-1 scores, duration of surgery and length of cardiopulmonary bypass were not significantly diferent in patients with and without VAP. However, time on mechanical ventilation and length of stay in the PICU and in the hospital were significantly longer in the VAP group. Serum and mBAL fluid sTREM-1 concentrations were similar in both groups. In the VAP group, 12 of 16 patients had sTREM-1 detected in EVC, whereas it was undetectable in all but two patients in the non-VAP group over the study period (p = 0.0013) (sensitivity 0.75, specificity 0.86, positive predictive value 0.86, negative predictive value 0.75, positive likelihood ratio (LR) 5.25, negative LR 0.29). Conclusion Measurement of sTREM-1 in EVC may be useful for the diagnosis of VAP after cardiac surgery.

The performance of four molecular methods for the laboratory diagnosis of congenital toxoplasmosis in amniotic fluid samples

Introduction Toxoplasmosis may be life-threatening in fetuses and in immune-deficient patients. Conventional laboratory diagnosis of toxoplasmosis is based on the presence of IgM and IgG anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies; however, molecular techniques have emerged as alternative tools due to their increased sensitivity. The aim of this study was to compare the performance of 4 PCR-based methods for the laboratory diagnosis of toxoplasmosis. One hundred pregnant women who seroconverted during pregnancy were included in the study. The definition of cases was based on a 12-month follow-up of the infants. Methods Amniotic fluid samples were submitted to DNA extraction and amplification by the following 4 Toxoplasma techniques performed with parasite B1 gene primers: conventional PCR, nested-PCR, multiplex-nested-PCR, and real-time PCR. Seven parameters were analyzed, sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR) and efficiency (Ef). Results Fifty-nine of the 100 infants had toxoplasmosis; 42 (71.2%) had IgM antibodies at birth but were asymptomatic, and the remaining 17 cases had non-detectable IgM antibodies but high IgG antibody titers that were associated with retinochoroiditis in 8 (13.5%) cases, abnormal cranial ultrasound in 5 (8.5%) cases, and signs/symptoms suggestive of infection in 4 (6.8%) cases. The conventional PCR assay detected 50 cases (9 false-negatives), nested-PCR detected 58 cases (1 false-negative and 4 false-positives), multiplex-nested-PCR detected 57 cases (2 false-negatives), and real-time-PCR detected 58 cases (1 false-negative). Conclusions The real-time PCR assay was the best-performing technique based on the parameters of Se (98.3%), Sp (100%), PPV (100%), NPV (97.6%), PLR (â^ž), NLR (0.017), and Ef (99%).

Circoli collaterali porto-sistemici all'eco-color-Doppler addominale in pazienti con ipertensione portale cirrotica: correlazione con il gradiente porto-epatico e valore prognostico

Background. Abdominal porto-systemic collaterals (APSC) on Color-Doppler ultrasound are a frequent finding in portal hypertensive cirrhotic patients. In patients with cirrhosis, an HVPG ≥ 16mmHg has been shown to be associated with increased mortality in two studies. Non-invasive indicators of HVPG ≥ 16 mmHg might define a subgroup of high-risk patients, but data on this aspect are lacking. Aims. We aimed to investigate whether HVPG predicts mortality in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension, and if APSC may predict a severe portal hypertensive state (i.e. HVPG≥16mmHg) in patients with cirrhosis and untreated portal hypertension. Methods. We analysed paired HVPG and ultrasonographic data of 86 untreated portal hypertensive cirrhotic patients. On abdominal echo-color-Doppler data on presence, type and number of APSC were prospectively collected. HVPG was measured following published guidelines. Clinical, laboratory and endoscopic data were available in all cases. First decompensation of cirrhosis and liver-disease related mortality on follow-up (mean 28±20 months) were recorded. Results. 73% of patients had compensated cirrhosis, while 27% were decompensated. All patients had an HVPG≥10 mmHg (mean 17.8±5.1 mmHg). 58% of compensated patients and 82% of decompensated patients had an HVPG over 16 mmHg. 25% had no varices, 28% had small varices, and 47% had medium/large varices. HVPG was higher in patients with esophageal varices vs. patients without varices (19.0±4.8 vs. 14.1±4.2mmHg, p<0.0001), and correlated with Child-Pugh score (R=0.494,p=0.019). 36 (42%) patients had APSC were more frequent in decompensated patients (60% vs. 35%, p=0.03) and in patients with esophageal varices (52% vs. 9%,p=0.001). HVPG was higher in patients with APSC compared with those without PSC (19.9± 4.6 vs. 16.2± 4.9mmHg, p=0.001). The prevalence of APSC was higher in patients with HVPG≥16mmHg vs. those with HVPG<16mmHg (57% vs. 13%,p<0.0001). Decompensation was significantly more frequent in patients with HVPG≥16mmHg vs. HVPG<16mmHg (35.1% vs. 11.5%, p=0.02). On multivariate analysis only HVPG and bilirubin were independent predictors of first decompensation. 10 patients died during follow-up. All had an HVPG≥16 mmHg (26% vs. 0% in patients with HVPG <16mmHg,p=0.04). On multivariate analysis only MELD score and HVPG ≥16mmHg were independent predictors of mortality. In compensated patients the detection of APSC predicted an HVPG≥16mmHg with 92% specificity, 54% sensitivity, positive and negative likelihood ratio 7.03 and 0.50, which implies that the demonstration of APSC on ultrasound increased the probability of HVPG≥16mmHg from 58% to 91%. Conclusions. HVPG maintains an independent prognostic value in the subset of patients with cirrhosis and clinically significant portal hypertension. The presence of APSC is a specific indicator of severe portal hypertension in patients with cirrhosis. Detection of APSC on ultrasound allows the non-invasive identification of a subgroup of compensated patients with bad prognosis, avoiding the invasive measurement of HVPG.

Studio caso-controllo multicentrico su distacco di retina e movimentazione manuale di carichi

Obiettivo Valutare l’ipotesi secondo cui la movimentazione manuale di carichi possa essere un fattore di rischio per il di distacco di retina. Metodi Si è condotto uno studio caso-controllo ospedaliero multicentrico, a Bologna, (reparto di Oculistica del policlinico S. Orsola Malpighi, Prof. Campos), e a Brescia (reparto di oculistica “Spedali Civili” Prof. Semeraro). I casi sono 104 pazienti operati per distacco di retina. I controlli sono 173 pazienti reclutati tra l’utenza degli ambulatori del medesimo reparto di provenienza dei casi. Sia i casi che i controlli (all’oscuro dall’ipotesi in studio) sono stati sottoposti ad un’intervista, attraverso un questionario strutturato concernente caratteristiche individuali, patologie pregresse e fattori di rischio professionali (e non) relativi al distacco di retina. I dati relativi alla movimentazione manuale di carichi sono stati utilizzati per creare un “indice di sollevamento cumulativo―ICS” (peso del carico sollevato x numero di sollevamenti/ora x numero di anni di sollevamento). Sono stati calcolati mediante un modello di regressione logistica unconditional (aggiustato per età e sesso) gli Odds Ratio (OR) relativi all’associazione tra distacco di retina e vari fattori di rischio, tra cui la movimentazione manuale di carichi. Risultati Oltre alla chirurgia oculare e alla miopia (fattori di rischio noti), si evidenzia un trend positivo tra l’aumento dell’ICS e il rischio di distacco della retina. Il rischio maggiore si osserva per la categoria di sollevamento severo (OR 3.6, IC 95%, 1.5–9.0). Conclusione I risultati, mostrano un maggiore rischio di sviluppare distacco di retina per coloro che svolgono attività lavorative che comportino la movimentazione manuale di carichi e, a conferma di quanto riportato in letteratura, anche per i soggetti miopi e per coloro che sono stati sottoposti ad intervento di cataratta. Si rende quindi evidente l’importanza degli interventi di prevenzione in soggetti addetti alla movimentazione manuale di carichi, in particolare se miopi.

Optimierungen des Nachweises von Supernovae in IceCube

Kernkollaps-Supernovae werden von einem massiven Ausbruch niederenergetischer Neutrinos begleitet. Sie zählen zu den energiereichsten Erscheinungen im Universum und stellen die derzeit einzig bekannte Quelle extrasolarer Neutrinos dar.rnDie Detektion einer solchen Neutrinosignatur würde zu einem tieferen Verständnis des bislang unzureichend bekannten stellaren Explosionsmechanismus führen. rnDarüber hinaus würden neue Einblicke in den Bereich der Teilchenphysik und der Supernova-Modellierung ermöglicht. Das sich zur Zeit am geographischen Südpol im Aufbau befindliche Neutrinoteleskop IceCube wird 2011 fertig gestellt sein.rnIceCube besteht im endgültigen Ausbau aus 5160 Photovervielfachern, die sich in gitterförmiger Anordnung in Tiefen zwischen 1450m und 2450m unter der Eisoberfläche befinden. Durch den Nachweis von Tscherenkow-Photonenrnim antarktischen Gletscher ist es in der Lage, galaktische Supernovae über einen kollektiven Anstieg der Rauschraten in seinen Photonenvervielfachern nachzuweisen.rnIn dieser Arbeit werden verschiedene Studien zur Implementierung einer künstlichen Totzeit vorgestellt, welche korreliertes Rauschen unterdrücken und somit das Signal-Untergund-Verhältnis maximieren würden.rnEin weiterer Teil dieser Dissertation bestand in der Integration der Supernova-Datenakquise eine neue Experiment-Steuerungssoftware.rnFür den Analyseteil der Arbeit wurde ein Monte-Carlo für IceCube entwickelt und Neutinooszillations-Mechanismen und eine Reihe von Signalmodellen integriert. Ein Likelihoodhypothesen-Test wurde verwendet, um die Unterscheidbarkeit verschiedener Supernova- beziehungsweise Neutrinooszillations-Szenarien zu untersuchen. Desweiteren wurde analysiert inwieweit sich Schock-Anregungen und QCD-Phasenübergnag im Verlauf des Explosionsprozesses detektieren lassen.

The XENON1T experiment: Monte Carlo background estimation and sensitivity curves study

Despite the scientific achievement of the last decades in the astrophysical and cosmological fields, the majority of the Universe energy content is still unknown. A potential solution to the “missing mass problem” is the existence of dark matter in the form of WIMPs. Due to the very small cross section for WIMP-nuleon interactions, the number of expected events is very limited (about 1 ev/tonne/year), thus requiring detectors with large target mass and low background level. The aim of the XENON1T experiment, the first tonne-scale LXe based detector, is to be sensitive to WIMP-nucleon cross section as low as 10^-47 cm^2. To investigate the possibility of such a detector to reach its goal, Monte Carlo simulations are mandatory to estimate the background. To this aim, the GEANT4 toolkit has been used to implement the detector geometry and to simulate the decays from the various background sources: electromagnetic and nuclear. From the analysis of the simulations, the level of background has been found totally acceptable for the experiment purposes: about 1 background event in a 2 tonne-years exposure. Indeed, using the Maximum Gap method, the XENON1T sensitivity has been evaluated and the minimum for the WIMP-nucleon cross sections has been found at 1.87 x 10^-47 cm^2, at 90% CL, for a WIMP mass of 45 GeV/c^2. The results have been independently cross checked by using the Likelihood Ratio method that confirmed such results with an agreement within less than a factor two. Such a result is completely acceptable considering the intrinsic differences between the two statistical methods. Thus, in the PhD thesis it has been proven that the XENON1T detector will be able to reach the designed sensitivity, thus lowering the limits on the WIMP-nucleon cross section by about 2 orders of magnitude with respect to the current experiments.

What does local tenderness say about the origin of pain? An investigation of cervical zygapophysial joint pain

BACKGROUND: Mechanical pain sensitivity is assessed in every patient with pain, either by palpation or by quantitative pressure algometry. Despite widespread use, no studies have formally addressed the usefulness of this practice for the identification of the source of pain. We tested the hypothesis that assessing mechanical pain sensitivity distinguishes damaged from healthy cervical zygapophysial (facet) joints. METHODS: Thirty-three patients with chronic unilateral neck pain were studied. Pressure pain thresholds (PPTs) were assessed bilaterally at all cervical zygapophysial joints. The diagnosis of zygapophysial joint pain was made by selective nerve blocks. Primary analysis was the comparison of the PPT between symptomatic and contralateral asymptomatic joints. The secondary end points were as follows: differences in PPT between affected and asymptomatic joints of the same side of patients with zygapophysial joint pain; differences in PPT at the painful side between patients with and without zygapophysial joint pain; and sensitivity and specificity of PPT for 2 different cutoffs (difference in PPT between affected and contralateral side by 1 and 30 kPa, meaning that the test was considered positive if the difference in PPT between painful and contralateral side was negative by at least 1 and 30 kPa, respectively). The PPT of patients was also compared with the PPT of 12 pain-free subjects. RESULTS: Zygapophysial joint pain was present in 14 patients. In these cases, the difference in mean PPT between affected and contralateral side (primary analysis) was −6.2 kPa (95% confidence interval: −19.5 to 7.2, P = 0.34). In addition, the secondary analyses yielded no statistically significant differences. For the cutoff of 1 kPa, sensitivity and specificity of PPT were 67% and 16%, respectively, resulting in a positive likelihood ratio of 0.79 and a diagnostic confidence of 38%. When the cutoff of 30 kPa was considered, the sensitivity decreased to only 13%, whereas the specificity increased to 95%, resulting in a positive likelihood ratio of 2.53 and a diagnostic confidence of 67%. The PPT was significantly lower in patients than in pain-free subjects (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Assessing mechanical pain sensitivity is not diagnostic for cervical zygapophysial joint pain. The finding should stimulate further research into a diagnostic tool that is widely used in the clinical examination of patients with pain.

Comparison of inversion recovery and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted fat-suppressed sequences for the staging of cervical lymphoma

In a retrospective analysis with two readers blinded to the clinical information, coronal short tau inversion recovery (STIR) images were compared to contrast-enhanced fat-saturated T1-weighted imaging (T1 CEfs) in 51 cases of cervical lymphoma. Interrater reliability was good to excellent. Although sensitivity and subjective quality of the STIR sequence were higher than those of the T1 CEfs sequence (sensitivity 85%/72%, respectively), specificity (82%/95%) as well as positive likelihood ratio (4.65/15.93) was much lower. Therefore, contrast-enhanced sequences should be included in the primary staging of lymphoma.

Sensitivity and specificity of fluorescence microlymphography for detecting lymphedema of the lower extremity

Fluorescence microlymphography (FML) is used to visualize the lymphatic capillaries. A maximum spread of the fluorescence dye of ≥ 12 mm has been suggested for the diagnosis of lymphedema. However, data on sensitivity and specificity are lacking. The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of FML for diagnosing lymphedema in patients with leg swelling. Patients with lower extremity swelling were clinically assessed and separated into lymphedema and non-lymphatic edema groups. FML was studied in all affected legs and the maximum spread of lymphatic capillaries was measured. Test accuracy and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to assess possible threshold values that predict lymphedema. Between March 2008 and August 2011 a total of 171 patients (184 legs) with a median age of 43.5 (IQR 24, 54) years were assessed. Of those, 94 (51.1%) legs were diagnosed with lymphedema. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratio and positive and negative predictive value were 87%, 64%, 2.45, 0.20, 72% and 83% for the 12-mm cut-off level and 79%, 83%, 4.72, 0.26, 83% and 79% for the 14-mm cut-off level, respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.82 (95% CI: 0.76, 0.88). Sensitivity was higher in the secondary versus primary lymphedema (95.0% vs 74.3%, p = 0.045). No major adverse events were observed. In conclusion, FML is a simple and safe technique for detecting lymphedema in patients with leg swelling. A cut-off level of ≥ 14-mm maximum spread has a high sensitivity and high specificity of detecting lymphedema and should be chosen.

Accuracy of B-type natriuretic peptide tests to exclude congestive heart failure: systematic review of test accuracy studies

BACKGROUND: Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a major public health problem. The use of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) tests shows promising diagnostic accuracy. Herein, we summarize the evidence on the accuracy of BNP tests in the diagnosis of CHF and compare the performance of rapid enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and standard radioimmunosorbent assay (RIA) tests. METHODS: We searched electronic databases and the reference lists of included studies, and we contacted experts. Data were extracted on the study population, the type of test used, and methods. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots and summary ROC curves were produced and negative likelihood ratios pooled. Random-effect meta-analysis and metaregression were used to combine data and explore sources of between-study heterogeneity. RESULTS: Nineteen studies describing 22 patient populations (9 ELISA and 13 RIA) and 9093 patients were included. The diagnosis of CHF was verified by echocardiography, radionuclide scan, or echocardiography combined with clinical criteria. The pooled negative likelihood ratio overall from random-effect meta-analysis was 0.18 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.13-0.23). It was lower for the ELISA test (0.12; 95% CI, 0.09-0.16) than for the RIA test (0.23; 95% CI, 0.16-0.32). For a pretest probability of 20%, which is typical for patients with suspected CHF in primary care, a negative result of the ELISA test would produce a posttest probability of 2.9%; a negative RIA test, a posttest probability of 5.4%. CONCLUSIONS: The use of BNP tests to rule out CHF in primary care settings could reduce demand for echocardiography. The advantages of rapid ELISA tests need to be balanced against their higher cost.

Accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging for the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis: systematic review

OBJECTIVE: To determine the accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging criteria for the early diagnosis of multiple sclerosis in patients with suspected disease. DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: 12 electronic databases, citation searches, and reference lists of included studies. Review methods Studies on accuracy of diagnosis that compared magnetic resonance imaging, or diagnostic criteria incorporating such imaging, to a reference standard for the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis. RESULTS: 29 studies (18 cohort studies, 11 other designs) were included. On average, studies of other designs (mainly diagnostic case-control studies) produced higher estimated diagnostic odds ratios than did cohort studies. Among 15 studies of higher methodological quality (cohort design, clinical follow-up as reference standard), those with longer follow-up produced higher estimates of specificity and lower estimates of sensitivity. Only two such studies followed patients for more than 10 years. Even in the presence of many lesions (> 10 or > 8), magnetic resonance imaging could not accurately rule multiple sclerosis in (likelihood ratio of a positive test result 3.0 and 2.0, respectively). Similarly, the absence of lesions was of limited utility in ruling out a diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (likelihood ratio of a negative test result 0.1 and 0.5). CONCLUSIONS: Many evaluations of the accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging for the early detection of multiple sclerosis have produced inflated estimates of test performance owing to methodological weaknesses. Use of magnetic resonance imaging to confirm multiple sclerosis on the basis of a single attack of neurological dysfunction may lead to over-diagnosis and over-treatment.