Contextual text mining

With the dramatic growth of text information, there is an increasing need for powerful text mining systems that can automatically discover useful knowledge from text. Text is generally associated with all kinds of contextual information. Those contexts can be explicit, such as the time and the location where a blog article is written, and the author(s) of a biomedical publication, or implicit, such as the positive or negative sentiment that an author had when she wrote a product review; there may also be complex context such as the social network of the authors. Many applications require analysis of topic patterns over different contexts. For instance, analysis of search logs in the context of the user can reveal how we can improve the quality of a search engine by optimizing the search results according to particular users; analysis of customer reviews in the context of positive and negative sentiments can help the user summarize public opinions about a product; analysis of blogs or scientific publications in the context of a social network can facilitate discovery of more meaningful topical communities. Since context information significantly affects the choices of topics and language made by authors, in general, it is very important to incorporate it into analyzing and mining text data. In general, modeling the context in text, discovering contextual patterns of language units and topics from text, a general task which we refer to as Contextual Text Mining, has widespread applications in text mining. In this thesis, we provide a novel and systematic study of contextual text mining, which is a new paradigm of text mining treating context information as the ``first-class citizen.'' We formally define the problem of contextual text mining and its basic tasks, and propose a general framework for contextual text mining based on generative modeling of text. This conceptual framework provides general guidance on text mining problems with context information and can be instantiated into many real tasks, including the general problem of contextual topic analysis. We formally present a functional framework for contextual topic analysis, with a general contextual topic model and its various versions, which can effectively solve the text mining problems in a lot of real world applications. We further introduce general components of contextual topic analysis, by adding priors to contextual topic models to incorporate prior knowledge, regularizing contextual topic models with dependency structure of context, and postprocessing contextual patterns to extract refined patterns. The refinements on the general contextual topic model naturally lead to a variety of probabilistic models which incorporate different types of context and various assumptions and constraints. These special versions of the contextual topic model are proved effective in a variety of real applications involving topics and explicit contexts, implicit contexts, and complex contexts. We then introduce a postprocessing procedure for contextual patterns, by generating meaningful labels for multinomial context models. This method provides a general way to interpret text mining results for real users. By applying contextual text mining in the ``context'' of other text information management tasks, including ad hoc text retrieval and web search, we further prove the effectiveness of contextual text mining techniques in a quantitative way with large scale datasets. The framework of contextual text mining not only unifies many explorations of text analysis with context information, but also opens up many new possibilities for future research directions in text mining.

Predicción de tipos de cambio reales utilizando modelos VAR Bayesianos

El presente trabajo busca documentar el potencial de los modelos VAR Bayesianos (BVAR) para la predicción de índices de tipos de cambio reales efectivos. Para esto, se prueban distintas especificaciones de modelos predictivos utilizando la base angosta de índices de tipos de cambio reales efectivos de BIS que incluye datos para 27 economías. En primera instancia se prueban modelos univariados simples para realizar las predicciones y tener un punto de referencia para las estimaciones BVAR. El análisis de los resultados de las predicciones de los modelos BVAR tradicionales muestran que estos por sí solos no tienen un mejor desempeño que los modelos univariados. Estos resultados son robustos a la ventana de estimación, y a la especificación de los priors del BVAR.

Le décours temporel de l'utilisation des fréquences spatiales dans les troubles du spectre autistique

Notre système visuel extrait d'ordinaire l'information en basses fréquences spatiales (FS) avant celles en hautes FS. L'information globale extraite tôt peut ainsi activer des hypothèses sur l'identité de l'objet et guider l'extraction d'information plus fine spécifique par la suite. Dans les troubles du spectre autistique (TSA), toutefois, la perception des FS est atypique. De plus, la perception des individus atteints de TSA semble être moins influencée par leurs a priori et connaissances antérieures. Dans l'étude décrite dans le corps de ce mémoire, nous avions pour but de vérifier si l'a priori de traiter l'information des basses aux hautes FS était présent chez les individus atteints de TSA. Nous avons comparé le décours temporel de l'utilisation des FS chez des sujets neurotypiques et atteints de TSA en échantillonnant aléatoirement et exhaustivement l'espace temps x FS. Les sujets neurotypiques extrayaient les basses FS avant les plus hautes: nous avons ainsi pu répliquer le résultat de plusieurs études antérieures, tout en le caractérisant avec plus de précision que jamais auparavant. Les sujets atteints de TSA, quant à eux, extrayaient toutes les FS utiles, basses et hautes, dès le début, indiquant qu'ils ne possédaient pas l'a priori présent chez les neurotypiques. Il semblerait ainsi que les individus atteints de TSA extraient les FS de manière purement ascendante, l'extraction n'étant pas guidée par l'activation d'hypothèses.

Detecção de região saliente em imagens usando dissimilaridade de cor e amostragem por pixeis aleatórios

The purpose of this work is to demonstrate and to assess a simple algorithm for automatic estimation of the most salient region in an image, that have possible application in computer vision. The algorithm uses the connection between color dissimilarities in the image and the image’s most salient region. The algorithm also avoids using image priors. Pixel dissimilarity is an informal function of the distance of a specific pixel’s color to other pixels’ colors in an image. We examine the relation between pixel color dissimilarity and salient region detection on the MSRA1K image dataset. We propose a simple algorithm for salient region detection through random pixel color dissimilarity. We define dissimilarity by accumulating the distance between each pixel and a sample of n other random pixels, in the CIELAB color space. An important result is that random dissimilarity between each pixel and just another pixel (n = 1) is enough to create adequate saliency maps when combined with median filter, with competitive average performance if compared with other related methods in the saliency detection research field. The assessment was performed by means of precision-recall curves. This idea is inspired on the human attention mechanism that is able to choose few specific regions to focus on, a biological system that the computer vision community aims to emulate. We also review some of the history on this topic of selective attention.

Modélisation incrémentale par méthode bayésienne

Les modèles incrémentaux sont des modèles statistiques qui ont été développés initialement dans le domaine du marketing. Ils sont composés de deux groupes, un groupe contrôle et un groupe traitement, tous deux comparés par rapport à une variable réponse binaire (le choix de réponses est « oui » ou « non »). Ces modèles ont pour but de détecter l’effet du traitement sur les individus à l’étude. Ces individus n’étant pas tous des clients, nous les appellerons : « prospects ». Cet effet peut être négatif, nul ou positif selon les caractéristiques des individus composants les différents groupes. Ce mémoire a pour objectif de comparer des modèles incrémentaux d’un point de vue bayésien et d’un point de vue fréquentiste. Les modèles incrémentaux utilisés en pratique sont ceux de Lo (2002) et de Lai (2004). Ils sont initialement réalisés d’un point de vue fréquentiste. Ainsi, dans ce mémoire, l’approche bayésienne est utilisée et comparée à l’approche fréquentiste. Les simulations sont e ectuées sur des données générées avec des régressions logistiques. Puis, les paramètres de ces régressions sont estimés avec des simulations Monte-Carlo dans l’approche bayésienne et comparés à ceux obtenus dans l’approche fréquentiste. L’estimation des paramètres a une influence directe sur la capacité du modèle à bien prédire l’effet du traitement sur les individus. Nous considérons l’utilisation de trois lois a priori pour l’estimation des paramètres de façon bayésienne. Elles sont choisies de manière à ce que les lois a priori soient non informatives. Les trois lois utilisées sont les suivantes : la loi bêta transformée, la loi Cauchy et la loi normale. Au cours de l’étude, nous remarquerons que les méthodes bayésiennes ont un réel impact positif sur le ciblage des individus composant les échantillons de petite taille.

Maxmin with multiple tastes and beliefs

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Departamento de Economia, Brasília, 2016.

Quantising contribution effort in online communities

We describe the Joint Effort-Topic (JET) model and the Author Joint Effort-Topic (aJET) model that estimate the effort required for users to contribute on different topics. We propose to learn word-level effort taking into account term preference over time and use it to set the priors of our models. Since there is no gold standard which can be easily built, we evaluate them by measuring their abilities to validate expected behaviours such as correlations between user contributions and the associated effort.

Dynamic Bayesian network for semantic place classification in mobile robotics

In this paper, the problem of semantic place categorization in mobile robotics is addressed by considering a time-based probabilistic approach called dynamic Bayesian mixture model (DBMM), which is an improved variation of the dynamic Bayesian network. More specifically, multi-class semantic classification is performed by a DBMM composed of a mixture of heterogeneous base classifiers, using geometrical features computed from 2D laserscanner data, where the sensor is mounted on-board a moving robot operating indoors. Besides its capability to combine different probabilistic classifiers, the DBMM approach also incorporates time-based (dynamic) inferences in the form of previous class-conditional probabilities and priors. Extensive experiments were carried out on publicly available benchmark datasets, highlighting the influence of the number of time-slices and the effect of additive smoothing on the classification performance of the proposed approach. Reported results, under different scenarios and conditions, show the effectiveness and competitive performance of the DBMM.

Sparse hierarchical Bayesian models for detecting relevant antigenic sites in virus evolution

Understanding how virus strains offer protection against closely related emerging strains is vital for creating effective vaccines. For many viruses, including Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus (FMDV) and the Influenza virus where multiple serotypes often co-circulate, in vitro testing of large numbers of vaccines can be infeasible. Therefore the development of an in silico predictor of cross-protection between strains is important to help optimise vaccine choice. Vaccines will offer cross-protection against closely related strains, but not against those that are antigenically distinct. To be able to predict cross-protection we must understand the antigenic variability within a virus serotype, distinct lineages of a virus, and identify the antigenic residues and evolutionary changes that cause the variability. In this thesis we present a family of sparse hierarchical Bayesian models for detecting relevant antigenic sites in virus evolution (SABRE), as well as an extended version of the method, the extended SABRE (eSABRE) method, which better takes into account the data collection process. The SABRE methods are a family of sparse Bayesian hierarchical models that use spike and slab priors to identify sites in the viral protein which are important for the neutralisation of the virus. In this thesis we demonstrate how the SABRE methods can be used to identify antigenic residues within different serotypes and show how the SABRE method outperforms established methods, mixed-effects models based on forward variable selection or l1 regularisation, on both synthetic and viral datasets. In addition we also test a number of different versions of the SABRE method, compare conjugate and semi-conjugate prior specifications and an alternative to the spike and slab prior; the binary mask model. We also propose novel proposal mechanisms for the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations, which improve mixing and convergence over that of the established component-wise Gibbs sampler. The SABRE method is then applied to datasets from FMDV and the Influenza virus in order to identify a number of known antigenic residue and to provide hypotheses of other potentially antigenic residues. We also demonstrate how the SABRE methods can be used to create accurate predictions of the important evolutionary changes of the FMDV serotypes. In this thesis we provide an extended version of the SABRE method, the eSABRE method, based on a latent variable model. The eSABRE method takes further into account the structure of the datasets for FMDV and the Influenza virus through the latent variable model and gives an improvement in the modelling of the error. We show how the eSABRE method outperforms the SABRE methods in simulation studies and propose a new information criterion for selecting the random effects factors that should be included in the eSABRE method; block integrated Widely Applicable Information Criterion (biWAIC). We demonstrate how biWAIC performs equally to two other methods for selecting the random effects factors and combine it with the eSABRE method to apply it to two large Influenza datasets. Inference in these large datasets is computationally infeasible with the SABRE methods, but as a result of the improved structure of the likelihood, we are able to show how the eSABRE method offers a computational improvement, leading it to be used on these datasets. The results of the eSABRE method show that we can use the method in a fully automatic manner to identify a large number of antigenic residues on a variety of the antigenic sites of two Influenza serotypes, as well as making predictions of a number of nearby sites that may also be antigenic and are worthy of further experiment investigation.

Normative reference of standing long jump for Colombian schoolchildren aged 9-17.9 years: The FUPRECOL study

El propósito del presente estudio era generar los valores normativos de salto largo para niños de 9-17.9 años, e investigar las diferencias de sexo y grupo de edad