Stressing schizotypy: The modulating role of stress-relieving behaviours and intellectual capacity on functional hemispheric asymmetry.

Relative cognitive impairments are common along the schizophrenia spectrum reflecting potential psychopathological markers. Yet stress, a vulnerability marker in schizophrenia (including its spectrum), is likewise related to cognitive impairments. We investigated whether one such cognitive marker (attenuated functional hemispheric asymmetry) during stressful life periods might be linked to individuals' schizotypal features or rather to individuals' stress-related experiences and behaviours. A total of 58 students performed a left hemisphere dominant (lateralised lexical decisions) and right hemisphere dominant (sex decisions on composite faces) task. In order to account for individual differences in stress sensitivity we separated participants into groups of high or low cognitive reserve according to their average current marks. In addition, participants filled in questionnaires on schizotypy (short O-LIFE), perceived stress, stress response, and a newly adapted questionnaire that enquired about potential stress compensation behaviour (elevated substance use). The most important finding was that enhanced substance use and cognitive disorganisation contributed to a right and left hemisphere shift in language dominance, respectively. We discuss that (i) former reports on right hemisphere shifts in language dominance with positive schizotypy might be explained by an associated higher substance use and (ii) cognitive disorganisation relates to unstable cognitive functioning that depend on individuals' life circumstances, contributing to published reports on inconsistent laterality-schizotypy relationships.

Interregional compensatory mechanisms of motor functioning in progressing preclinical neurodegeneration.

Understanding brain reserve in preclinical stages of neurodegenerative disorders allows determination of which brain regions contribute to normal functioning despite accelerated neuronal loss. Besides the recruitment of additional regions, a reorganisation and shift of relevance between normally engaged regions are a suggested key mechanism. Thus, network analysis methods seem critical for investigation of changes in directed causal interactions between such candidate brain regions. To identify core compensatory regions, fifteen preclinical patients carrying the genetic mutation leading to Huntington's disease and twelve controls underwent fMRI scanning. They accomplished an auditory paced finger sequence tapping task, which challenged cognitive as well as executive aspects of motor functioning by varying speed and complexity of movements. To investigate causal interactions among brain regions a single Dynamic Causal Model (DCM) was constructed and fitted to the data from each subject. The DCM parameters were analysed using statistical methods to assess group differences in connectivity, and the relationship between connectivity patterns and predicted years to clinical onset was assessed in gene carriers. In preclinical patients, we found indications for neural reserve mechanisms predominantly driven by bilateral dorsal premotor cortex, which increasingly activated superior parietal cortices the closer individuals were to estimated clinical onset. This compensatory mechanism was restricted to complex movements characterised by high cognitive demand. Additionally, we identified task-induced connectivity changes in both groups of subjects towards pre- and caudal supplementary motor areas, which were linked to either faster or more complex task conditions. Interestingly, coupling of dorsal premotor cortex and supplementary motor area was more negative in controls compared to gene mutation carriers. Furthermore, changes in the connectivity pattern of gene carriers allowed prediction of the years to estimated disease onset in individuals. Our study characterises the connectivity pattern of core cortical regions maintaining motor function in relation to varying task demand. We identified connections of bilateral dorsal premotor cortex as critical for compensation as well as task-dependent recruitment of pre- and caudal supplementary motor area. The latter finding nicely mirrors a previously published general linear model-based analysis of the same data. Such knowledge about disease specific inter-regional effective connectivity may help identify foci for interventions based on transcranial magnetic stimulation designed to stimulate functioning and also to predict their impact on other regions in motor-associated networks.

Epidemiology of inflammatory bowel disease: Is there a shift towards onset at a younger age?

OBJECTIVES: Increasing numbers of paediatric and adolescent patients with Crohn disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) are reported. To determine whether this observation is a consequence of a shift towards onset at a younger age, we analysed retrospective data from patients enrolled in the Swiss IBD Cohort Study (SIBDCS). PATIENTS AND METHODS: The SIBDCS is a disease-based cohort in Switzerland, which collects retrospective and prospective data on a large sample of patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Patients, diagnosed from 1980, were stratified according to diagnosis of CD and UC. Age at disease onset (age at first symptoms and age at diagnosis) was analysed in relation to calendar year of disease onset. Data were extracted from physician and patient questionnaires. Linear regressions of age at disease onset by calendar year of disease onset adjusted by sex, country of birth, and education were performed. RESULTS: Adjusted regression coefficients for CD and UC were significantly positive, that is, age at disease onset has increased with time. Male sex was associated with an increase in age at disease onset, and birth in Switzerland with a decrease. These associations were statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: The results from the SIBDCS do not support the hypothesis that disease onset of both CD and UC occur today at a younger age. On the contrary, our results show that there is a significant trend for age at disease onset occurring at an older age today as compared with recent decades. We conclude that the observation of increasing numbers of paediatric and adolescent patients with IBD is not caused by a trend towards disease onset at a younger age, but that this may rather be a consequence of the overall increasing incidence of these conditions.

Inter-rater agreement and reliability of the COSMIN (COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health status Measurement Instruments) Checklist

Background: The COSMIN checklist is a tool for evaluating the methodological quality of studies on measurement properties of health-related patient-reported outcomes. The aim of this study is to determine the inter-rater agreement and reliability of each item score of the COSMIN checklist (n = 114). Methods: 75 articles evaluating measurement properties were randomly selected from the bibliographic database compiled by the Patient-Reported Outcome Measurement Group, Oxford, UK. Raters were asked to assess the methodological quality of three articles, using the COSMIN checklist. In a one-way design, percentage agreement and intraclass kappa coefficients or quadratic-weighted kappa coefficients were calculated for each item. Results: 88 raters participated. Of the 75 selected articles, 26 articles were rated by four to six participants, and 49 by two or three participants. Overall, percentage agreement was appropriate (68% was above 80% agreement), and the kappa coefficients for the COSMIN items were low (61% was below 0.40, 6% was above 0.75). Reasons for low inter-rater agreement were need for subjective judgement, and accustom to different standards, terminology and definitions.Conclusions: Results indicated that raters often choose the same response option, but that it is difficult on item level to distinguish between articles. When using the COSMIN checklist in a systematic review, we recommend getting some training and experience, completing it by two independent raters, and reaching consensus on one final rating. Instructions for using the checklist are improved.

Tendências dos estudos com idosos mais velhos na comunidade: uma revisão sistemática (inter)nacional

O estudo objetivou identificar e analisar as tendências e tipos de estudos, publicados no país e no exterior, envolvendo idosos >80 anos residentes na comunidade. Realizou-se uma revisão sistemática da literatura nacional nas bases de dados LILACS e SciELO e internacional nas bases PUBMED e EMBASE, nas duas últimas décadas. Selecionaram-se 162 referências internacionais e 12 nacionais. Predominou a área das ciências biológicas, tanto no nível nacional (50%) quanto internacional (74,1%). Todos os trabalhos nacionais foram observacionais, sendo 91,7% de estudos transversais. Dentre os internacionais, 93,3% foram observacionais. Destes, 48,1% de estudos transversais e 37,6% de estudos de corte. Os Estados Unidos foram responsáveis por 41,4% do total de publicações internacionais. O Brasil e a China foram os únicos países em desenvolvimento a apresentar produções internacionais. Apesar do significativo aumento no número de produções científicas internacionais a partir de 2005, o mesmo ainda não foi constatado em nível nacional.

Cognitive issues in fingerprint analysis: Inter- and intra-expert consistency and the effect of a "target" comparison

Deciding whether two fingerprint marks originate from the same source requires examination and comparison of their features. Many cognitive factors play a major role in such information processing. In this paper we examined the consistency (both between- and within-experts) in the analysis of latent marks, and whether the presence of a 'target' comparison print affects this analysis. Our findings showed that the context of a comparison print affected analysis of the latent mark, possibly influencing allocation of attention, visual search, and threshold for determining a 'signal'. We also found that even without the context of the comparison print there was still a lack of consistency in analysing latent marks. Not only was this reflected by inconsistency between different experts, but the same experts at different times were inconsistent with their own analysis. However, the characterization of these inconsistencies depends on the standard and definition of what constitutes inconsistent. Furthermore, these effects were not uniform; the lack of consistency varied across fingerprints and experts. We propose solutions to mediate variability in the analysis of friction ridge skin.

Social rationality and scales of action: inter-ethnic relations in cockfighting and game-fishing, Raiatea, French Polynesia

This article challenges the notion of economic rationality as a criterion for explaining ethnic boundary maintenance. It offers an ethnographic analysis of inter-ethnic relations in the context of games (cockfights and game-fishing contests) in the island of Raiatea (French Polynesia). Although all players engage in the same basic gambling practices, money is differentially scaled and mobilized by the Tahitian and Chinese participants. Building on recent pragmatic approaches to rationality, it is shown that the players' rationalities differ not from the point of view of economic maximization, but only in so far as they participate in social relations at different scales.

The Role of social institutions in inter-generational mobility

In this study we examine the role of institutions in shaping inter-generational mobility behavior. Research has traditionally emphasized the role of educational systems but cummulative evidence suggests that variations in their design offer only a very limited explanation for observed mobility differences. We examine the impact of welfare states and, in particular, how early childhood and family policies may influence the impact of economic and cultural characteristics of origin families on child outcomes.

Can fisheries-induced evolution shift reference points for fisheries management?

Biological reference points are important tools for fisheries management. Reference points are not static, but may change when a population's environment or the population itself changes. Fisheries-induced evolution is one mechanism that can alter population characteristics, leading to "shifting" reference points by modifying the underlying biological processes or by changing the perception of a fishery system. The former causes changes in "true" reference points, whereas the latter is caused by changes in the yardsticks used to quantify a system's status. Unaccounted shifts of either kind imply that reference points gradually lose their intended meaning. This can lead to increased precaution, which is safe, but potentially costly. Shifts can also occur in more perilous directions, such that actual risks are greater than anticipated. Our qualitative analysis suggests that all commonly used reference points are susceptible to shifting through fisheries-induced evolution, including the limit and "precautionary" reference points for spawning-stock biomass, Blim and Bpa, and the target reference point for fishing mortality, F0.1. Our findings call for increased awareness of fisheries-induced changes and highlight the value of always basing reference points on adequately updated information, to capture all changes in the biological processes that drive fish population dynamics.

Simple estimation of incident HIV infection rates in notification cohorts based on window periods of algorithms for evaluation of line-immunoassay result patterns.

BACKGROUND: Tests for recent infections (TRIs) are important for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) also yields information on time since infection. We have published algorithms which, with a certain sensitivity and specificity, distinguish between incident (< = 12 months) and older infection. In order to use these algorithms like other TRIs, i.e., based on their windows, we now determined their window periods. METHODS: We classified Inno-Lia results of 527 treatment-naïve patients with HIV-1 infection < = 12 months according to incidence by 25 algorithms. The time after which all infections were ruled older, i.e. the algorithm's window, was determined by linear regression of the proportion ruled incident in dependence of time since infection. Window-based incident infection rates (IIR) were determined utilizing the relationship 'Prevalence = Incidence x Duration' in four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications. Results were compared to performance-based IIR also derived from Inno-Lia results, but utilizing the relationship 'incident = true incident + false incident' and also to the IIR derived from the BED incidence assay. RESULTS: Window periods varied between 45.8 and 130.1 days and correlated well with the algorithms' diagnostic sensitivity (R(2) = 0.962; P<0.0001). Among the 25 algorithms, the mean window-based IIR among the 748 notifications of 2005/06 was 0.457 compared to 0.453 obtained for performance-based IIR with a model not correcting for selection bias. Evaluation of BED results using a window of 153 days yielded an IIR of 0.669. Window-based IIR and performance-based IIR increased by 22.4% and respectively 30.6% in 2008, while 2009 and 2010 showed a return to baseline for both methods. CONCLUSIONS: IIR estimations by window- and performance-based evaluations of Inno-Lia algorithm results were similar and can be used together to assess IIR changes between annual HIV notification cohorts.

Randomized observation periods for the compound Poisson risk model: Dividends

In the framework of the classical compound Poisson process in collective risk theory, we study a modification of the horizontal dividend barrier strategy by introducing random observation times at which dividends can be paid and ruin can be observed. This model contains both the continuous-time and the discrete-time risk model as a limit and represents a certain type of bridge between them which still enables the explicit calculation of moments of total discounted dividend payments until ruin. Numerical illustrations for several sets of parameters are given and the effect of random observation times on the performance of the dividend strategy is studied.

Rules of origin : from analysis to reform

General Introduction This thesis can be divided into two main parts :the first one, corresponding to the first three chapters, studies Rules of Origin (RoOs) in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); the second part -the fourth chapter- is concerned with Anti-Dumping (AD) measures. Despite wide-ranging preferential access granted to developing countries by industrial ones under North-South Trade Agreements -whether reciprocal, like the Europe Agreements (EAs) or NAFTA, or not, such as the GSP, AGOA, or EBA-, it has been claimed that the benefits from improved market access keep falling short of the full potential benefits. RoOs are largely regarded as a primary cause of the under-utilization of improved market access of PTAs. RoOs are the rules that determine the eligibility of goods to preferential treatment. Their economic justification is to prevent trade deflection, i.e. to prevent non-preferred exporters from using the tariff preferences. However, they are complex, cost raising and cumbersome, and can be manipulated by organised special interest groups. As a result, RoOs can restrain trade beyond what it is needed to prevent trade deflection and hence restrict market access in a statistically significant and quantitatively large proportion. Part l In order to further our understanding of the effects of RoOs in PTAs, the first chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot, Celine Carrère and Pr. Jaime de Melo, describes and evaluates the RoOs governing EU and US PTAs. It draws on utilization-rate data for Mexican exports to the US in 2001 and on similar data for ACP exports to the EU in 2002. The paper makes two contributions. First, we construct an R-index of restrictiveness of RoOs along the lines first proposed by Estevadeordal (2000) for NAFTA, modifying it and extending it for the EU's single-list (SL). This synthetic R-index is then used to compare Roos under NAFTA and PANEURO. The two main findings of the chapter are as follows. First, it shows, in the case of PANEURO, that the R-index is useful to summarize how countries are differently affected by the same set of RoOs because of their different export baskets to the EU. Second, it is shown that the Rindex is a relatively reliable statistic in the sense that, subject to caveats, after controlling for the extent of tariff preference at the tariff-line level, it accounts for differences in utilization rates at the tariff line level. Finally, together with utilization rates, the index can be used to estimate total compliance costs of RoOs. The second chapter proposes a reform of preferential Roos with the aim of making them more transparent and less discriminatory. Such a reform would make preferential blocs more "cross-compatible" and would therefore facilitate cumulation. It would also contribute to move regionalism toward more openness and hence to make it more compatible with the multilateral trading system. It focuses on NAFTA, one of the most restrictive FTAs (see Estevadeordal and Suominen 2006), and proposes a way forward that is close in spirit to what the EU Commission is considering for the PANEURO system. In a nutshell, the idea is to replace the current array of RoOs by a single instrument- Maximum Foreign Content (MFC). An MFC is a conceptually clear and transparent instrument, like a tariff. Therefore changing all instruments into an MFC would bring improved transparency pretty much like the "tariffication" of NTBs. The methodology for this exercise is as follows: In step 1, I estimate the relationship between utilization rates, tariff preferences and RoOs. In step 2, I retrieve the estimates and invert the relationship to get a simulated MFC that gives, line by line, the same utilization rate as the old array of Roos. In step 3, I calculate the trade-weighted average of the simulated MFC across all lines to get an overall equivalent of the current system and explore the possibility of setting this unique instrument at a uniform rate across lines. This would have two advantages. First, like a uniform tariff, a uniform MFC would make it difficult for lobbies to manipulate the instrument at the margin. This argument is standard in the political-economy literature and has been used time and again in support of reductions in the variance of tariffs (together with standard welfare considerations). Second, uniformity across lines is the only way to eliminate the indirect source of discrimination alluded to earlier. Only if two countries face uniform RoOs and tariff preference will they face uniform incentives irrespective of their initial export structure. The result of this exercise is striking: the average simulated MFC is 25% of good value, a very low (i.e. restrictive) level, confirming Estevadeordal and Suominen's critical assessment of NAFTA's RoOs. Adopting a uniform MFC would imply a relaxation from the benchmark level for sectors like chemicals or textiles & apparel, and a stiffening for wood products, papers and base metals. Overall, however, the changes are not drastic, suggesting perhaps only moderate resistance to change from special interests. The third chapter of the thesis considers whether Europe Agreements of the EU, with the current sets of RoOs, could be the potential model for future EU-centered PTAs. First, I have studied and coded at the six-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) .both the old RoOs -used before 1997- and the "Single list" Roos -used since 1997. Second, using a Constant Elasticity Transformation function where CEEC exporters smoothly mix sales between the EU and the rest of the world by comparing producer prices on each market, I have estimated the trade effects of the EU RoOs. The estimates suggest that much of the market access conferred by the EAs -outside sensitive sectors- was undone by the cost-raising effects of RoOs. The chapter also contains an analysis of the evolution of the CEECs' trade with the EU from post-communism to accession. Part II The last chapter of the thesis is concerned with anti-dumping, another trade-policy instrument having the effect of reducing market access. In 1995, the Uruguay Round introduced in the Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) a mandatory "sunset-review" clause (Article 11.3 ADA) under which anti-dumping measures should be reviewed no later than five years from their imposition and terminated unless there was a serious risk of resumption of injurious dumping. The last chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot and Pr. Jaime de Melo, uses a new database on Anti-Dumping (AD) measures worldwide to assess whether the sunset-review agreement had any effect. The question we address is whether the WTO Agreement succeeded in imposing the discipline of a five-year cycle on AD measures and, ultimately, in curbing their length. Two methods are used; count data analysis and survival analysis. First, using Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions, the count of AD measures' revocations is regressed on (inter alia) the count of "initiations" lagged five years. The analysis yields a coefficient on measures' initiations lagged five years that is larger and more precisely estimated after the agreement than before, suggesting some effect. However the coefficient estimate is nowhere near the value that would give a one-for-one relationship between initiations and revocations after five years. We also find that (i) if the agreement affected EU AD practices, the effect went the wrong way, the five-year cycle being quantitatively weaker after the agreement than before; (ii) the agreement had no visible effect on the United States except for aone-time peak in 2000, suggesting a mopping-up of old cases. Second, the survival analysis of AD measures around the world suggests a shortening of their expected lifetime after the agreement, and this shortening effect (a downward shift in the survival function postagreement) was larger and more significant for measures targeted at WTO members than for those targeted at non-members (for which WTO disciplines do not bind), suggesting that compliance was de jure. A difference-in-differences Cox regression confirms this diagnosis: controlling for the countries imposing the measures, for the investigated countries and for the products' sector, we find a larger increase in the hazard rate of AD measures covered by the Agreement than for other measures.

Conciliatio locorum communium totius Scripturae Sacrae : qui inter se pugnare videtur ([Reprod.]) / A Seraphino Cumirano,... edita

Collection : French books before 1601 ; 215.1