Predicting the extremes of Indian summer monsoon rainfall with coupled ocean-atmosphere models

An analysis of the retrospective predictions by seven coupled ocean atmosphere models from major forecasting centres of Europe and USA, aimed at assessing their ability in predicting the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), particularly the extremes (i.e. droughts and excess rainfall seasons) is presented in this article. On the whole, the skill in prediction of extremes is not bad since most of the models are able to predict the sign of the ISMR anomaly for a majority of the extremes. There is a remarkable coherence between the models in successes and failures of the predictions, with all the models generating loud false alarms for the normal monsoon season of 1997 and the excess monsoon season of 1983. It is well known that the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) play an important role in the interannual variation of ISMR and particularly the extremes. The prediction of the phases of these modes and their link with the monsoon has also been assessed. It is found that models are able to simulate ENSO-monsoon link realistically, whereas the EQUINOO-ISMR link is simulated realistically by only one model the ECMWF model. Furthermore, it is found that in most models this link is opposite to the observed, with the predicted ISMR being negatively (instead of positively) correlated with the rainfall over the western equatorial Indian Ocean and positively (instead of negatively) correlated with the rainfall over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Analysis of the seasons for which the predictions of almost all the models have large errors has suggested the facets of ENSO and EQUINOO and the links with the monsoon that need to be improved for improving monsoon predictions by these models.

Yanai waves in the western equatorial Indian Ocean

Observations and models have shown the presence of intraseasonal fluctuations in 20-30-day and 10-20-day bands in the equatorial Indian Ocean west of 60 degrees E (WEIO). Their spatial and temporal structures characterize them as Yanai waves, which we label low-frequency (LFYW) and high-frequency (HFYW) Yanai waves, respectively. We explore the dynamics of these intraseasonal signals, using an ocean general circulation model (Modular Ocean Model) and a linear, continuously stratified model. Yanai waves are forced by the meridional wind tau(y) everywhere in the WEIO most strongly during the monsoon seasons. They are forced both directly in the interior ocean and by reflection of the interior response from the western boundary; interference between the interior and boundary responses results in a complex surface pattern that propagates eastward and has nodes. Yanai waves are also forced by instabilities primarily during June/July in a region offshore from the western boundary (52-55 degrees E). At that time, eddies, generated by barotropic instability of the Southern Gyre, are advected southward to the equator. There, they generate a westward-propagating, cross-equatorial flow field, v(eq), with a wave number/frequency spectrum that fits the dispersion relation of a number of Yanai waves, and these waves are efficiently excited. Typically, Yanai waves associated with several baroclinic modes are excited by both wind and eddy forcing; and typically, they superpose to create beams that carry energy vertically and eastward along ray paths. The same processes generate LFYWs and HFYWs, and hence, their responses are similar; differences are traceable to the property that HFYWs have longer wavelengths than LFYWs for each baroclinic mode.

Large scale features and assessment of spatial scale correspondence between TMPA and IMD rainfall datasets over Indian landmass

Daily rainfall datasets of 10 years (1998-2007) of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) version 6 and India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rain gauge have been compared over the Indian landmass, both in large and small spatial scales. On the larger spatial scale, the pattern correlation between the two datasets on daily scales during individual years of the study period is ranging from 0.4 to 0.7. The correlation improved significantly (similar to 0.9) when the study was confined to specific wet and dry spells each of about 5-8 days. Wavelet analysis of intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) of the southwest monsoon rainfall show the percentage contribution of the major two modes (30-50 days and 10-20 days), to be ranging respectively between similar to 30-40% and 5-10% for the various years. Analysis of inter-annual variability shows the satellite data to be underestimating seasonal rainfall by similar to 110 mm during southwest monsoon and overestimating by similar to 150 mm during northeast monsoon season. At high spatio-temporal scales, viz., 1 degrees x1 degrees grid, TMPA data do not correspond to ground truth. We have proposed here a new analysis procedure to assess the minimum spatial scale at which the two datasets are compatible with each other. This has been done by studying the contribution to total seasonal rainfall from different rainfall rate windows (at 1 mm intervals) on different spatial scales (at daily time scale). The compatibility spatial scale is seen to be beyond 5 degrees x5 degrees average spatial scale over the Indian landmass. This will help to decide the usability of TMPA products, if averaged at appropriate spatial scales, for specific process studies, e.g., cloud scale, meso scale or synoptic scale.

Dynamics of the Indian-Ocean oxygen minimum zones

In the Indian Ocean, mid-depth oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) occur in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The lower part of the Arabian-Sea OMZ (ASOMZ; below 400 m) intensifies northward across the basin; in contrast, its upper part (above 400 m) is located in the central/eastern basin, well east of the most productive regions along the western boundary. The Bay-of-Bengal OMZ (BBOMZ), although strong, is weaker than the ASOMZ. To investigate the processes that maintain the Indian-Ocean OMZs, we obtain a suite of solutions to a coupled biological/physical model. Its physical component is a variable-density, 6 1/2-layer model, in which each layer corresponds to a distinct dynamical regime or water-mass type. Its biological component has six compartments: nutrients, phytoplankton, zooplankton, two size classes of detritus, and oxygen. Because the model grid is non-eddy resolving (0.5 degrees), the biological model also includes a parameterization of enhanced mixing based on the eddy kinetic energy derived from satellite observations. To explore further the impact of local processes on OMZs, we also obtain analytic solutions to a one-dimensional, simplified version of the biological model. Our control run is able to simulate basic features of the oxygen, nutrient, and phytoplankton fields throughout the Indian Ocean. The model OMZs result from a balance, or lack thereof, between a sink of oxygen by remineralization and subsurface oxygen sources due primarily to northward spreading of oxygenated water from the Southern Hemisphere, with a contribution from Persian-Gulf water in the northern Arabian Sea. The northward intensification of the lower ASOMZ results mostly from horizontal mixing since advection is weak in its depth range. The eastward shift of the upper ASOMZ is due primarily to enhanced advection and vertical eddy mixing in the western Arabian Sea, which spread oxygenated waters both horizontally and vertically. Advection carries small detritus from the western boundary into the central/eastern Arabian Sea, where it provides an additional source of remineralization that drives the ASOMZ to suboxic levels. The model BBOMZ is weaker than the ASOMZ because the Bay lacks a remote source of detritus from the western boundary. Although detritus has a prominent annual cycle, the model OMZs do not because there is not enough time for significant remineralization to occur.

Data assimilation using ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) in ROMS model for Indian Ocean

Study of Oceans dynamics and forecast is crucial as it influences the regional climate and other marine activities. Forecasting oceanographic states like sea surface currents, Sea surface temperature (SST) and mixed layer depth at different time scales is extremely important for these activities. These forecasts are generated by various ocean general circulation models (OGCM). One such model is the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS). Though ROMS can simulate several features of ocean, it cannot reproduce the thermocline of the ocean properly. Solution to this problem is to incorporates data assimilation (DA) in the model. DA system using Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) has been developed for ROMS model to improve the accuracy of the model forecast. To assimilate data temperature and salinity from ARGO data has been used as observation. Assimilated temperature and salinity without localization shows oscillations compared to the model run without assimilation for India Ocean. Same was also found for u and v-velocity fields. With localization we found that the state variables are diverging within the localization scale.

Relook into the historical progress and philosophy of Indian space exploration

A study of the history and philosophy of the contribution of India towards the exploration of space since antiquity provides interesting insights. The contributions are described during the three periods namely: (1) the ten millenniums from 10,000 BC with a twilight period up to 900 AD; (2) the ten centuries from 900 AD to 1900 AD; and (3) the ten decades from 1900 AD to 2000 AD; called mythological, medieval, and modern respectively. Some important events during the above periods provide a reference view of the progress. The Vedas during the mythological period and the Siddhantas during the medieval periods, which are based on astronomical observations, indicate that the Indian contribution preceded other cultures. But most Western historians ignore this fact time and again in spite of many proofs provided to the contrary. This chapter also shows that Indians had the proper scientific attitude of developing any physical theory through the triplet of mind, model, and measurements. It is this same triplet that forms the basis of the present day well known Kalman filter technique. Up to about 1500 BC the Indian contribution was leading but during foreign invasion and occupation it lagged and has been improving only after independence.

Corporate social responsibilities of Indian public sector enterprises-a case study of Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL)

The high level of public accountability attached to Public Sector Enterprises as a result of public ownership makes them socially responsible. The Committee of Public Undertakings in 1992 examined the issue relating to social obligations of Central Public Sector Enterprises and observed that ``being part of the `State', every Public Sector enterprise has a moral responsibility to play an active role in discharging the social obligations endowed on a welfare state, subject to the financial health of the enterprise''. It issued the Corporate Social Responsibility Guidelines in 2010 where all Central Public Enterprises, through a Board Resolution, are mandated to create a CSR budget as a specified percentage of net profit of the previous year. This paper examines the CSR activities of the biggest engineering public sector organization in India, Bharath Heavy Electricals Limited. The objectives are twofold, one, to develop a case study of the organization about the funds allocated and utilized for various CSR activities, and two, to examine its status with regard to other organizations, the 2010 guidelines, and the local socio-economic development. Secondary data analysis results show three interesting trends. One, it reveals increasing organizational social orientation with the formal guidelines in place. Two, Firms can no longer continue to exploit environmental resources and escape from their responsibilities by acting separate entities regardless of the interest of the society and Three the thrust of CSR in public sector is on inclusive growth, sustainable development and capacity building with due attention to the socio-economic needs of the neglected and marginalized sections of the society.

Mutation analysis of the SLC4A11 gene in Indian families with congenital hereditary endothelial dystrophy 2 and a review of the literature

Purpose: Congenital hereditary endothelial dystrophy 2 (CHED2) is an autosomal recessive disorder caused by mutations in the solute carrier family 4, sodium borate transporter, member 11 (SLC4A11) gene. The purpose of this study was to identify the genetic cause of CHED2 in six Indian families and catalog all known mutations in the SLC4A11 gene. Methods: Peripheral blood samples were collected from individuals of the families with CHED2 and used in genomic DNA isolation. PCR primers were used to amplify the entire coding region including intron-exon junctions of SLC4A11. Amplicons were subsequently sequenced to identify the mutations. Results: DNA sequence analysis of the six families identified four novel (viz., p.Thr262Ile, p.Gly417Arg, p.Cys611Arg, and p.His724Asp) mutations and one known p.Arg869His homozygous mutation in the SLC4A11 gene. The mutation p.Gly417Arg was identified in two families. Conclusions: This study increases the mutation spectrum of the SLC4A11 gene. A review of the literature showed that the total number of mutations in the SLC4A11 gene described to date is 78. Most of the mutations are missense, followed by insertions-deletions. The present study will be helpful in genetic diagnosis of the families reported here.

Climatic variability in Central Indian Himalaya during the last similar to 1800 years: Evidence from a high resolution speleothem record

Stable isotopes from a U/Th dated aragonite stalagmite from the Central Kumaun Himalaya provide evidence of variation in climatic conditions in the last similar to 1800 years. The delta O-18 and delta C-13 values vary from -4.3 parts per thousand to -7.6 parts per thousand and -3.4 parts per thousand to -9.1 parts per thousand respectively, although the stalagmite was not grown in isotopic equilibrium with cave drip water, a clear palaeoclimatic signal in stalagmite delta O-18 values is evident based on the regional climate data. The stalagmite showed a rapid growth rate during 830-910 AD, most likely the lower part of Medieval Warm Period (MWP), and 1600-1640 AD, the middle part of Little Ice Age (LIA). Two distinct phases of reduced precipitation are marked by a 2 parts per thousand shift in 8180 values towards the end of MWP (similar to 1080-1160 AD) and after its termination from similar to 1210 to 1440 AD. The LIA (similar to 1440-1880 AD) is represented by sub-tropical climate similar to modern conditions, whereas the post-LIA was comparatively drier. The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was located over the cave location during wetter/warmer conditions. When it shifted southward, precipitation over the study area decreased. A prominent drop in delta O-18 and delta C-13 values during the post-LIA period may also have been additionally influenced by anthropogenic activity in the area. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

A note on new indices for the equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation

It is now well known that there is a strong association of the extremes of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) with the El Nio and southern oscillation (ENSO) and the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO), later being an east-west oscillation in convection anomaly over the equatorial Indian Ocean. So far, the index used for EQUINOO is EQWIN, which is based on the surface zonal wind over the central equatorial Indian Ocean. Since the most important attribute of EQUINOO is the oscillation in convection/precipitation, we believe that the indices based on convection or precipitation would be more appropriate. Continuous and reliable data on outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and satellite derived precipitation are now available from 1979 onwards. Hence, in this paper, we introduce new indices for EQUINOO, based on the difference in the anomaly of OLR/precipitation between eastern and western parts of the equatorial Indian Ocean. We show that the strong association of extremes of the Indian summer monsoon with ENSO and EQUINOO is also seen when the new indices are used to represent EQUINOO.

Role of the cloud adjustment time scale in simulation of the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon

The simulation of precipitation in a general circulation model relying on relaxed mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme is sensitive to cloud adjustment time scale (CATS). In this study, the frequency of the dominant intra-seasonal mode and interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model is shown to be sensitive to the CATS. It has been shown that a longer CATS of about 5 h simulates the spatial distribution of the ISMR better. El Nio Southern Oscillation-ISMR relationship is also sensitive to CATS. The equatorial Indian Ocean rainfall and ISMR coupling is sensitive to CATS. Our study suggests that a careful choice of CATS is necessary for adequate simulation of spatial pattern as well as interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon precipitation.

Some Themes in Chemical Crystallography Pertinent to the Indian Contribution

It is particularly appropriate that the Journal of the Indian Institute of Science is bringing out a commemorative issue to mark the International Year of Crystallography 2014 (IYCr2014). India has had a strong crystallographic tradition, and the earliest work in what may be described as structural crystallography from this country is the work of K. Banerjee on the determination of the crystal structure of naphthalene in 1930. The Indian Institute of Science itself has played no small part in establishing and sustaining the subject of crystallography in this country. A large number of papers in this special issue are written by authors who have either have been trained in the Institute or who have some kind of professional association with this organization. In this article I will try to capture some unique features that characterize the intersection of the crystallographic and the chemical domains, mostly as they pertain to the Indian contribution to this subject. Crystallography is of course is as old as chemistry itself, and some would say it is even older. The relationships between chemistry and crystallography go back to much before the discovery of diffraction of X-rays by crystals.The discovery of polymorphism by Mitscherlisch in 1822, Haüy’s formulation of the molecule integrante, and the work of Fedorov and Groth on the identification of crystals from their morphology alone, are well known examples of such relationships.A very early article by Tutton speaks of “crystallo-chemical analysis”. In this article, I shall, however, be dealing with the interplay of chemistry and crystallography only in the post diffraction era, that is, after 1912. Much had been written and said about chemical crystallography, and even within the context of the present special issue, there is a review of chemical crystallography in India including some futuristic trends. This topic was also reviewed by Nangia in a special publication brought out by Indian Academy of Sciences in 2009,and by Desiraju in a special publication brought out by the Indian National Science Academy in 2010. A rather detailed account of crystallography in India appeared in 2007 in the newsletter of the International Union of Crystallography (IUCr) in which chemical crystallography was detailed. Since all these publications are fairly recent there is little need for me to attempt a comprehensive coverage of chemical crystallography in India in this short review