Predictive Capability of HPV and Pap Tests in Screening for Cervical Cancer over a Three-Year Follow-up

Purpose To compare the predictive capability of HPV and Pap smear tests for screening pre-cancerous lesions of the cervix over a three-year follow-up, in a population of users of the Brazilian National Health System (SUS). Methods This is a retrospective cohort study of 2,032 women with satisfactory results for Pap smear and HPV tests using second-generation hybrid capture,made in a previous study. We followed them for 36 months with data obtained from medical records, the Cervix Cancer Information System (SISCOLO), and the Mortality Information System (SIM). The outcome was a histological diagnosis of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more advanced lesions (CIN2ş). We constructed progression curves of the baseline test results for the period, using the Kaplan-Meier method, and estimated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and positive and negative likelihood ratios for each test. Results A total of 1,440 women had at least one test during follow-up. Progression curves of the baseline test results indicated differences in capability to detect CIN2ş (p < 0.001) with significantly greater capability when both tests were abnormal, followed by only a positive HPV test. The HPV test was more sensitive than the Pap smear (88.7% and 73.6%, respectively; p < 0.05) and had a better negative likelihood ratio (0.13 and 0.30, respectively). Specificity and positive likelihood ratio of the tests were similar. Conclusions These findings corroborate the importance of HPV test as a primary cervical cancer screening.

Bus bar aeolian vibration field tests

Large amplitude bus bar aeolian vibration may lead to post insulator damage. Different damping applications are used to decrease the risk of large amplitude aeolian vibration. In this paper the post insulator load caused by the bus bar aeolian vibration and the effect of damping methods are evaluated. The effects of three types of bus bar connectors and three types of primary structures are studied. Two actual damping devices, damping cable and their combinations are studied. The post insulator loads are studied with strain gage based custom made force sensors installed on the both ends of the post insulator and with the displacement sensor installed on the midpoint of the bus bar. The post insulator loads are calculated from the strain values and the damping properties are determined from the displacement history. The bus bar is deflected with a hanging weight. The weight is released and the bus bar is left to free damped vibration. Both actual bus bar vibration dampers RIBE and SBI were very effective against the aeolian vibration. Combining vibration damper with damping cable will increase the damping ratio but it may be unnecessary considering the extra effort. Bus bar connector type or primary structure have no effect on the vertical load. The bending moment at the post insulator with double sided bus bar connector is significantly higher than at the post insulator with single sided bus bar connector. No reliable conclusions about bus bar connector type effect can be done, but the roller bearing type or central bearing type connector may reduce the bending moment. The RHS steel frame as primary structure may increase the bending moment peak values since it is the least rigid primary structure type and it may start to vibrate as a response to the awakening force of the vibrating bus bar.

Application of isotope-selective non-dispersive infrared spectrometry for the evaluation of the 13C-urea breath test: comparison with three concordant methods

The aim of this work was to compare the performance of isotope-selective non-dispersive infrared spectrometry (IRIS) for the 13C-urea breath test with the combination of the 14C-urea breath test (14C-UBT), urease test and histologic examination for the diagnosis of H. pylori (HP) infection. Fifty-three duodenal ulcer patients were studied. All patients were submitted to gastroscopy to detect HP by the urease test, histologic examination and 14C-UBT. To be included in the study the results of the 3 tests had to be concordant. Within one month after admission to the study the patients were submitted to IRIS with breath samples collected before and 30 min after the ingestion of 75 mg 13C-urea dissolved in 200 ml of orange juice. The samples were mailed and analyzed 11.5 (4-21) days after collection. Data were analyzed statistically by the chi-square and Mann-Whitney test and by the Spearman correlation coefficient. Twenty-six patients were HP positive and 27 negative. There was 100% agreement between the IRIS results and the HP status determined by the other three methods. Using a cutoff value of delta-over-baseline (DOB) above 4.0 the IRIS showed a mean value of 19.38 (minimum = 4.2, maximum = 41.3, SD = 10.9) for HP-positive patients and a mean value of 0.88 (minimum = 0.10, maximum = 2.5, SD = 0.71) for negative patients. Using a cutoff value corresponding to 0.800% CO2/weight (kg), the 14C-UBT showed a mean value of 2.78 (minimum = 0.89, maximum = 5.22, SD = 1.18) in HP-positive patients. HP-negative patients showed a mean value of 0.37 (minimum = 0.13, maximum = 0.77, SD = 0.17). IRIS is a low-cost, easy to manage, highly sensitive and specific test for H. pylori detection. Storing and mailing the samples did not interfere with the performance of the test.

Clinical features of panic patients sensitive to hyperventilation or breath-holding methods for inducing panic attacks

Our aim was to compare the clinical features of panic disorder (PD) patients sensitive to hyperventilation or breath-holding methods of inducing panic attacks. Eighty-five PD patients were submitted to both a hyperventilation challenge test and a breath-holding test. They were asked to hyperventilate (30 breaths/min) for 4 min and a week later to hold their breath for as long as possible, four times with a 2-min interval. Anxiety scales were applied before and after the tests. We selected the patients who responded with a panic attack to just one of the tests, i.e., those who had a panic attack after hyperventilating (HPA, N = 24, 16 females, 8 males, mean age ± SD = 38.5 ± 12.7 years) and those who had a panic attack after breath holding (BHPA, N = 20, 11 females, 9 males, mean age ± SD = 42.1 ± 10.6 years). Both groups had similar (chi² = 1.28, d.f. = 1, P = 0.672) respiratory symptoms (fear of dying, chest/pain disconfort, shortness of breath, paresthesias, and feelings of choking) during a panic attack. The criteria of Briggs et al. [British Journal of Psychiatry, 1993; 163: 201-209] for respiratory PD subtype were fulfilled by 18 (75.0%) HPA patients and by 14 (70.0%) BHPA patients. The HPA group had a later onset of the disease compared to BHPA patients (37.9 ± 11.0 vs 21.3 ± 12.9 years old, Mann-Whitney, P < 0.001), and had a higher family prevalence of PD (70.8 vs 25.0%, chi² = 19.65, d.f. = 1, P = 0.041). Our data suggest that these two groups - HPA and BHPA patients - may be specific subtypes of PD.

Behavioral and physiological methods for early quantitative assessment of spinal cord injury and prognosis in rats

Methods for reliable evaluation of spinal cord (SC) injury in rats at short periods (2 and 24 h) after lesion were tested to characterize the mechanisms implicated in primary SC damage. We measured the physiological changes occurring after several procedures for producing SC injury, with particular emphasis on sensorimotor functions. Segmental and suprasegmental reflexes were tested in 39 male Wistar rats weighing 250-300 g divided into three control groups that were subjected to a) anesthesia, b) dissection of soft prevertebral tissue, and c) laminectomy of the vertebral segments between T10 and L1. In the lesion group the SC was completely transected, hemisected or subjected to vertebral compression. All animals were evaluated 2 and 24 h after the experimental procedure by the hind limb motility index, Bohlman motor score, open-field, hot-plate, tail flick, and paw compression tests. The locomotion scale proved to be less sensitive than the sensorimotor tests. A reduction in exploratory movements was detected in the animals 24 h after the procedures. The hot-plate was the most sensitive test for detecting sensorimotor deficiencies following light, moderate or severe SC injury. The most sensitive and simplest test of reflex function was the hot-plate. The hemisection model promoted reproducible moderate SC injury which allowed us to quantify the resulting behavior and analyze the evolution of the lesion and its consequences during the first 24 h after injury. We conclude that hemisection permitted the quantitation of behavioral responses for evaluation of the development of deficits after lesions. Hind limb evaluation scores and spontaneous exploration events provided a sensitive index of immediate injury effects after SC lesion at 2 and 24 h. Taken together, locomotion scales, open-field, and hot-plate tests represent reproducible, quantitatively sensitive methods for detecting functional deficiencies within short periods of time, indicating their potential for the study of cellular mechanisms of primary injury and repair after traumatic SC injury.

Converter-Fed Induction Motor Losses: Determination With IEC Methods

Energy efficiency is an important topic when considering electric motor drives market. Although more efficient electric motor types are available, the induction motor remains as the most common industrial motor type. IEC methods for determining losses and efficiency of converter-fed induction motors were introduced recently with the release of technical specification IEC/TS 60034-2-3. Determining the induction motor losses with IEC/TS 60034-2-3 method 2-3-A and assessing the practical applicability of the method are the main interests of this study. The method 2-3-A introduces a specific test converter waveform to be used in the measurements. Differences between the induction motor losses with a test converter supply, and with a DTC converter supply are investigated. In the IEC methods, the tests are run at motor rated fundamental voltage, which, in practice, requires the frequency converter to be fed with a risen input voltage. In this study, the tests are run on both frequency converters with artificially risen converter input voltage, resulting in rated motor fundamental input voltage as required by IEC. For comparison, the tests are run with both converters on normal grid input voltage supply, which results in lower motor fundamental voltage and reduced flux level, but should be more relevant from practical point of view. According to IEC method 2-3-A, tests are run at rated motor load, and to ensure comparability of the results, the rated load is used in the grid-fed converter measurements, although motor is overloaded while producing the rated torque at reduced flux level. The IEC 2-3-A method requires also sinusoidal supply test results with IEC method 2-1-1B. Therefore, the induction motor losses with the recently updated IEC 60034-2-1 method 2-1-1B are determined at the motor rated voltage, but also at two lower motor voltages, which are according to the output fundamental voltages of the two network-supplied converters. The method 2-3-A was found to be complex to apply but the results were stable. According to the results, the method 2-3-A and the test converter supply are usable for comparing losses and efficiency of different induction motors at the operating point of rated voltage, rated frequency and rated load, but the measurements do not give any prediction of the motor losses at final application. One might therefore strongly criticize the method’s main principles. It seems, that the release of IEC 60034-2-3 as a technical specification instead of a final standard for now was justified, since the practical relevance of the main method is questionable.

Cooking quality of upland and lowland rice characterized by different methods

Rice cooking quality is usually evaluated by texture and stickiness characteristics using many different methods. Gelatinization temperature, amylose content, viscosity (Brookfield viscometer and Rapid Visco Analyzer), and sensory analysis were performed to characterize culinary quality of rice grains produced under two cropping systems and submitted to different technologies. All samples from the upland cropping system and two from the irrigated cropping system presented intermediate amylose content. Regarding stickiness, BRS Primavera, BRS Sertaneja, and BRS Tropical showed loose cooked grains. Irrigated cultivars presented less viscosity and were softer than upland cultivars. Upland grain samples had similar profile on the viscoamylografic curve, but the highest viscosity peaks were observed for BRS Alvorada, IRGA 417, and SCS BRS Piracema among the irrigated cropping system samples. In general, distinct grain characteristics were observed between upland and irrigated samples by cluster analysis. The majority of the upland cultivars showed soft and loose grains with adequate cooking quality confirmed by sensory tests. Most of the irrigated cultivars, however, presented soft and sticky grains. Different methodologies allowed to improve the construction of the culinary profile of the varieties studied.

Performance of different drying methods and their effects on the physiological quality of grain sorghum seeds (S. bicolor (L.) Moench)

This experiment viewed to evaluate the physiological quality of grain sorghum seeds as well as to determine the respective drying curve of each of three drying methods. The seeds harvested at 18.9%, 18.1%, and 18.2% of moisture content were submitted to the following drying methods : a) under natural conditions, b) an intermittent dryer in which the combustion of firewood was the source of caloric energy, and c) a stationary dryer in which the source of caloric energy was the burning of liquefied petroleum gas. The experimental design was a completely randomized one with 25 repetitions of one hundred seeds each. The water contents and weight of one thousand seeds were evaluated. Seeds physiological quality was evaluated by germination and vigor tests. Seed drying rates were of 0.11, 1.25, and 0.55 percent points per hour (pph -1) for the natural, intermittent and stationary drying methods, respectively. The intermittent treatment permits the highest loss of water in the shortest period of time, and germination and vigor remaining unchanged.

Conformational analysis of antibody binding site using EDMA methods /

Euclidean distance matrix analysis (EDMA) methods are used to distinguish whether or not significant difference exists between conformational samples of antibody complementarity determining region (CDR) loops, isolated LI loop and LI in three-loop assembly (LI, L3 and H3) obtained from Monte Carlo simulation. After the significant difference is detected, the specific inter-Ca distance which contributes to the difference is identified using EDMA.The estimated and improved mean forms of the conformational samples of isolated LI loop and LI loop in three-loop assembly, CDR loops of antibody binding site, are described using EDMA and distance geometry (DGEOM). To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time the EDMA methods are used to analyze conformational samples of molecules obtained from Monte Carlo simulations. Therefore, validations of the EDMA methods using both positive control and negative control tests for the conformational samples of isolated LI loop and LI in three-loop assembly must be done. The EDMA-I bootstrap null hypothesis tests showed false positive results for the comparison of six samples of the isolated LI loop and true positive results for comparison of conformational samples of isolated LI loop and LI in three-loop assembly. The bootstrap confidence interval tests revealed true negative results for comparisons of six samples of the isolated LI loop, and false negative results for the conformational comparisons between isolated LI loop and LI in three-loop assembly. Different conformational sample sizes are further explored by combining the samples of isolated LI loop to increase the sample size, or by clustering the sample using self-organizing map (SOM) to narrow the conformational distribution of the samples being comparedmolecular conformations. However, there is no improvement made for both bootstrap null hypothesis and confidence interval tests. These results show that more work is required before EDMA methods can be used reliably as a method for comparison of samples obtained by Monte Carlo simulations.

Simulation-Based Finite and Large Sample Tests in Multivariate Regressions.

In the context of multivariate linear regression (MLR) models, it is well known that commonly employed asymptotic test criteria are seriously biased towards overrejection. In this paper, we propose a general method for constructing exact tests of possibly nonlinear hypotheses on the coefficients of MLR systems. For the case of uniform linear hypotheses, we present exact distributional invariance results concerning several standard test criteria. These include Wilks' likelihood ratio (LR) criterion as well as trace and maximum root criteria. The normality assumption is not necessary for most of the results to hold. Implications for inference are two-fold. First, invariance to nuisance parameters entails that the technique of Monte Carlo tests can be applied on all these statistics to obtain exact tests of uniform linear hypotheses. Second, the invariance property of the latter statistic is exploited to derive general nuisance-parameter-free bounds on the distribution of the LR statistic for arbitrary hypotheses. Even though it may be difficult to compute these bounds analytically, they can easily be simulated, hence yielding exact bounds Monte Carlo tests. Illustrative simulation experiments show that the bounds are sufficiently tight to provide conclusive results with a high probability. Our findings illustrate the value of the bounds as a tool to be used in conjunction with more traditional simulation-based test methods (e.g., the parametric bootstrap) which may be applied when the bounds are not conclusive.

Exact Tests for Contemporaneous Correlation of Disturbances in Seemingly Unrelated Regressions.

This paper proposes finite-sample procedures for testing the SURE specification in multi-equation regression models, i.e. whether the disturbances in different equations are contemporaneously uncorrelated or not. We apply the technique of Monte Carlo (MC) tests [Dwass (1957), Barnard (1963)] to obtain exact tests based on standard LR and LM zero correlation tests. We also suggest a MC quasi-LR (QLR) test based on feasible generalized least squares (FGLS). We show that the latter statistics are pivotal under the null, which provides the justification for applying MC tests. Furthermore, we extend the exact independence test proposed by Harvey and Phillips (1982) to the multi-equation framework. Specifically, we introduce several induced tests based on a set of simultaneous Harvey/Phillips-type tests and suggest a simulation-based solution to the associated combination problem. The properties of the proposed tests are studied in a Monte Carlo experiment which shows that standard asymptotic tests exhibit important size distortions, while MC tests achieve complete size control and display good power. Moreover, MC-QLR tests performed best in terms of power, a result of interest from the point of view of simulation-based tests. The power of the MC induced tests improves appreciably in comparison to standard Bonferroni tests and, in certain cases, outperforms the likelihood-based MC tests. The tests are applied to data used by Fischer (1993) to analyze the macroeconomic determinants of growth.

Économétrie, théorie des tests et philosophie des sciences

Dans ce texte, nous revoyons certains développements récents de l’économétrie qui peuvent être intéressants pour des chercheurs dans des domaines autres que l’économie et nous soulignons l’éclairage particulier que l’économétrie peut jeter sur certains thèmes généraux de méthodologie et de philosophie des sciences, tels la falsifiabilité comme critère du caractère scientifique d’une théorie (Popper), la sous-détermination des théories par les données (Quine) et l’instrumentalisme. En particulier, nous soulignons le contraste entre deux styles de modélisation - l’approche parcimonieuse et l’approche statistico-descriptive - et nous discutons les liens entre la théorie des tests statistiques et la philosophie des sciences.

Simulation-Based Finite-Sample Tests for Heteroskedasticity and ARCH Effects.

A wide range of tests for heteroskedasticity have been proposed in the econometric and statistics literature. Although a few exact homoskedasticity tests are available, the commonly employed procedures are quite generally based on asymptotic approximations which may not provide good size control in finite samples. There has been a number of recent studies that seek to improve the reliability of common heteroskedasticity tests using Edgeworth, Bartlett, jackknife and bootstrap methods. Yet the latter remain approximate. In this paper, we describe a solution to the problem of controlling the size of homoskedasticity tests in linear regression contexts. We study procedures based on the standard test statistics [e.g., the Goldfeld-Quandt, Glejser, Bartlett, Cochran, Hartley, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey, White and Szroeter criteria] as well as tests for autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH-type models). We also suggest several extensions of the existing procedures (sup-type of combined test statistics) to allow for unknown breakpoints in the error variance. We exploit the technique of Monte Carlo tests to obtain provably exact p-values, for both the standard and the new tests suggested. We show that the MC test procedure conveniently solves the intractable null distribution problem, in particular those raised by the sup-type and combined test statistics as well as (when relevant) unidentified nuisance parameter problems under the null hypothesis. The method proposed works in exactly the same way with both Gaussian and non-Gaussian disturbance distributions [such as heavy-tailed or stable distributions]. The performance of the procedures is examined by simulation. The Monte Carlo experiments conducted focus on : (1) ARCH, GARCH, and ARCH-in-mean alternatives; (2) the case where the variance increases monotonically with : (i) one exogenous variable, and (ii) the mean of the dependent variable; (3) grouped heteroskedasticity; (4) breaks in variance at unknown points. We find that the proposed tests achieve perfect size control and have good power.

Logique et tests d'hypotheses: reflexions sur les problemes mal poses en econometrie

Dans ce texte, nous analysons les développements récents de l’économétrie à la lumière de la théorie des tests statistiques. Nous revoyons d’abord quelques principes fondamentaux de philosophie des sciences et de théorie statistique, en mettant l’accent sur la parcimonie et la falsifiabilité comme critères d’évaluation des modèles, sur le rôle de la théorie des tests comme formalisation du principe de falsification de modèles probabilistes, ainsi que sur la justification logique des notions de base de la théorie des tests (tel le niveau d’un test). Nous montrons ensuite que certaines des méthodes statistiques et économétriques les plus utilisées sont fondamentalement inappropriées pour les problèmes et modèles considérés, tandis que de nombreuses hypothèses, pour lesquelles des procédures de test sont communément proposées, ne sont en fait pas du tout testables. De telles situations conduisent à des problèmes statistiques mal posés. Nous analysons quelques cas particuliers de tels problèmes : (1) la construction d’intervalles de confiance dans le cadre de modèles structurels qui posent des problèmes d’identification; (2) la construction de tests pour des hypothèses non paramétriques, incluant la construction de procédures robustes à l’hétéroscédasticité, à la non-normalité ou à la spécification dynamique. Nous indiquons que ces difficultés proviennent souvent de l’ambition d’affaiblir les conditions de régularité nécessaires à toute analyse statistique ainsi que d’une utilisation inappropriée de résultats de théorie distributionnelle asymptotique. Enfin, nous soulignons l’importance de formuler des hypothèses et modèles testables, et de proposer des techniques économétriques dont les propriétés sont démontrables dans les échantillons finis.

Exact Nonparametric Two-Sample Homogeneity Tests for Possibly Discrete Distributions.

In this paper, we study several tests for the equality of two unknown distributions. Two are based on empirical distribution functions, three others on nonparametric probability density estimates, and the last ones on differences between sample moments. We suggest controlling the size of such tests (under nonparametric assumptions) by using permutational versions of the tests jointly with the method of Monte Carlo tests properly adjusted to deal with discrete distributions. We also propose a combined test procedure, whose level is again perfectly controlled through the Monte Carlo test technique and has better power properties than the individual tests that are combined. Finally, in a simulation experiment, we show that the technique suggested provides perfect control of test size and that the new tests proposed can yield sizeable power improvements.