Quantification of air quality in space and time and its effects on health

The long-term adverse effects on health associated with air pollution exposure can be estimated using either cohort or spatio-temporal ecological designs. In a cohort study, the health status of a cohort of people are assessed periodically over a number of years, and then related to estimated ambient pollution concentrations in the cities in which they live. However, such cohort studies are expensive and time consuming to implement, due to the long-term follow up required for the cohort. Therefore, spatio-temporal ecological studies are also being used to estimate the long-term health effects of air pollution as they are easy to implement due to the routine availability of the required data. Spatio-temporal ecological studies estimate the health impact of air pollution by utilising geographical and temporal contrasts in air pollution and disease risk across $n$ contiguous small-areas, such as census tracts or electoral wards, for multiple time periods. The disease data are counts of the numbers of disease cases occurring in each areal unit and time period, and thus Poisson log-linear models are typically used for the analysis. The linear predictor includes pollutant concentrations and known confounders such as socio-economic deprivation. However, as the disease data typically contain residual spatial or spatio-temporal autocorrelation after the covariate effects have been accounted for, these known covariates are augmented by a set of random effects. One key problem in these studies is estimating spatially representative pollution concentrations in each areal which are typically estimated by applying Kriging to data from a sparse monitoring network, or by computing averages over modelled concentrations (grid level) from an atmospheric dispersion model. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the health effects of long-term exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) and Particular matter (PM10) in mainland Scotland, UK. In order to have an initial impression about the air pollution health effects in mainland Scotland, chapter 3 presents a standard epidemiological study using a benchmark method. The remaining main chapters (4, 5, 6) cover the main methodological focus in this thesis which has been threefold: (i) how to better estimate pollution by developing a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion model that relates monitored and modelled pollution data over space, time and pollutant; (ii) how to simultaneously estimate the joint effects of multiple pollutants; and (iii) how to allow for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations when estimating their health effects. Specifically, chapters 4 and 5 are developed to achieve (i), while chapter 6 focuses on (ii) and (iii). In chapter 4, I propose an integrated model for estimating the long-term health effects of NO2, that fuses modelled and measured pollution data to provide improved predictions of areal level pollution concentrations and hence health effects. The air pollution fusion model proposed is a Bayesian space-time linear regression model for relating the measured concentrations to the modelled concentrations for a single pollutant, whilst allowing for additional covariate information such as site type (e.g. roadside, rural, etc) and temperature. However, it is known that some pollutants might be correlated because they may be generated by common processes or be driven by similar factors such as meteorology. The correlation between pollutants can help to predict one pollutant by borrowing strength from the others. Therefore, in chapter 5, I propose a multi-pollutant model which is a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion model that extends the single pollutant model in chapter 4, which relates monitored and modelled pollution data over space, time and pollutant to predict pollution across mainland Scotland. Considering that we are exposed to multiple pollutants simultaneously because the air we breathe contains a complex mixture of particle and gas phase pollutants, the health effects of exposure to multiple pollutants have been investigated in chapter 6. Therefore, this is a natural extension to the single pollutant health effects in chapter 4. Given NO2 and PM10 are highly correlated (multicollinearity issue) in my data, I first propose a temporally-varying linear model to regress one pollutant (e.g. NO2) against another (e.g. PM10) and then use the residuals in the disease model as well as PM10, thus investigating the health effects of exposure to both pollutants simultaneously. Another issue considered in chapter 6 is to allow for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations when estimating their health effects. There are in total four approaches being developed to adjust the exposure uncertainty. Finally, chapter 7 summarises the work contained within this thesis and discusses the implications for future research.

Modelled and observed changes in aerosols and surface solar radiation over Europe between 1960 and 2009

Substantial changes in anthropogenic aerosols and precursor gas emissions have occurred over recent decades due to the implementation of air pollution control legislation and economic growth. The response of atmospheric aerosols to these changes and the impact on climate are poorly constrained, particularly in studies using detailed aerosol chemistry–climate models. Here we compare the HadGEM3-UKCA (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model-United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols) coupled chemistry–climate model for the period 1960–2009 against extensive ground-based observations of sulfate aerosol mass (1978–2009), total suspended particle matter (SPM, 1978–1998), PM10 (1997–2009), aerosol optical depth (AOD, 2000–2009), aerosol size distributions (2008–2009) and surface solar radiation (SSR, 1960–2009) over Europe. The model underestimates observed sulfate aerosol mass (normalised mean bias factor (NMBF) = −0.4), SPM (NMBF = −0.9), PM10 (NMBF = −0.2), aerosol number concentrations (N30 NMBF = −0.85; N50 NMBF = −0.65; and N100 NMBF = −0.96) and AOD (NMBF = −0.01) but slightly overpredicts SSR (NMBF = 0.02). Trends in aerosol over the observational period are well simulated by the model, with observed (simulated) changes in sulfate of −68 % (−78 %), SPM of −42 % (−20 %), PM10 of −9 % (−8 %) and AOD of −11 % (−14 %). Discrepancies in the magnitude of simulated aerosol mass do not affect the ability of the model to reproduce the observed SSR trends. The positive change in observed European SSR (5 %) during 1990–2009 ("brightening") is better reproduced by the model when aerosol radiative effects (ARE) are included (3 %), compared to simulations where ARE are excluded (0.2 %). The simulated top-of-the-atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing over Europe under all-sky conditions increased by > 3.0 W m−2 during the period 1970–2009 in response to changes in anthropogenic emissions and aerosol concentrations.

Particle size analysis; a selected bibliography, November, 1959,

The present bibliography has been combined with 2 previously published bibliographies (1949 and 1954)

Proceedings /

Description based on: [1st] (November 18/20, 1958); title from title page.

An Economic impact analysis of proposed amendments to public water supply regulations pending before the Illinois Pollution Control Board, R85-14 : final report /

"August 1987."

Critical review of estimating benefits of air and water pollution control /

Contract no. 68-01-2821.

Intermedia aspects of air and water pollution control,

Prepared for Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under contract 68-01-0729, program element 1H1093.

Research in water supply and water pollution, a survey of projects currently being conducted by the Research Branch, Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control, at the Robert A. Taft Sanitary Engineering Center, Cincinnati, Ohio.

Mode of access: Internet.

Compilation of selected public health laws : including particularly the Public Health Service Act, the Clean Air Act, the Solid Waste Disposal Act, the Mental Retardation Facilities and Community Mental Health Centers Construction Act, and the Federal Water Pollution Control Act.

Mode of access: Internet.

Dispersion simulation techniques for assessing the air pollution impacts of ground transportation systems /

"ANL/ES-29."

Activities report - Basic and Applied Sciences Branch, Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control

Report covers fiscal year

Air pollution : EPA's strategy and resources may be inadequate to control air toxics : report to the Chairman, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, Committee on Energy and Commerce, House of Representatives /

"B-236358.3"--P. [1]

An interregional input-output analysis of the pollution content of trade flows and environmental trade balances between five states in the US Mid-West

In this paper we attempt an empirical application of the multi-region input-output (MRIO) method in order to enumerate the pollution content of interregional trade flows between five Mid-West regions/states in the US –Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin – and the rest of the US. This allows us to analyse some very important issues in terms of the nature and significance of interregional environmental spillovers within the US Mid-West and the existence of pollution ‘trade balances’ between states. Our results raise questions in terms of the extent to which authorities at State level can control local emissions where they are limited in the way some emissions can be controlled, particularly with respect to changes in demand elsewhere in the Mid-West and US. This implies a need for policy co-ordination between national and state level authorities in the US to meet emissions reductions targets. The existence of an environmental trade balances between states also raises issues in terms of net losses/gains in terms of pollutants as a result of interregional trade within the US and whether, if certain activities can be carried out using less polluting technology in one region relative to others, it is better for the US as a whole if this type of relationship exists.

Effects of formaldehyde on the frog's mucociliary epithelium as a surrogate to evaluate air pollution effects on the respiratory epithelium

The increasing use of alcohol as an alternative fuel to gasoline or diesel can increase emission of formaldehyde, an organic gas that is irritant to the mucous membranes. The respiratory system is the major target of air pollutants and its major defense mechanism depends on the continuous activity of the cilia and the resulting constant transportation of mucous secretion. The present study was designed to evaluate the effects of formaldehyde on the ciliated epithelium through a relative large dose range around the threshold limit value adopted by the Brazilian legislation, namely 1.6 ppm (1.25 to 5 ppm). For this purpose, the isolated frog palate preparation was used as the target of toxic injury. Four groups of frog palates were exposed to diluted Ringer solution (control, N = 8) and formaldehyde diluted in Ringer solution at three different concentrations (1.25, 2.5 and 5.0 ppm, N = 10 for each group). Mucociliary clearance and ciliary beat frequency decreased significantly in contact with formaldehyde at the concentrations of 2.5 and 5.0 ppm after 60 min of exposure (P<0.05). We conclude that relatively low concentrations of formaldehyde, which is even below the Brazilian threshold limit value, are sufficient to cause short-term mucociliary impairment.