Multi-site downscaling of maximum and minimum daily temperature using support vector machine

Climate change impact assessment studies involve downscaling large-scale atmospheric predictor variables (LSAPVs) simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) to site-scale meteorological variables. This article presents a least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM)-based methodology for multi-site downscaling of maximum and minimum daily temperature series. The methodology involves (1) delineation of sites in the study area into clusters based on correlation structure of predictands, (2) downscaling LSAPVs to monthly time series of predictands at a representative site identified in each of the clusters, (3) translation of the downscaled information in each cluster from the representative site to that at other sites using LS-SVM inter-site regression relationships, and (4) disaggregation of the information at each site from monthly to daily time scale using k-nearest neighbour disaggregation methodology. Effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated by application to data pertaining to four sites in the catchment of Beas river basin, India. Simulations of Canadian coupled global climate model (CGCM3.1/T63) for four IPCC SRES scenarios namely A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT were downscaled to future projections of the predictands in the study area. Comparison of results with those based on recently proposed multivariate multiple linear regression (MMLR) based downscaling method and multi-site multivariate statistical downscaling (MMSD) method indicate that the proposed method is promising and it can be considered as a feasible choice in statistical downscaling studies. The performance of the method in downscaling daily minimum temperature was found to be better when compared with that in downscaling daily maximum temperature. Results indicate an increase in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures at all the sites for A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The projected increment is high for A2 scenario, and it is followed by that for A1B, B1 and COMMIT scenarios. Projections, in general, indicated an increase in mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures during January to February and October to December.

Support for Integrated Ecosystem Assessments of NOAA’s National Estuarine Research Reserves System (NERRS), Volume II: Assessment of Ecological Condition and Stressor Impacts in Subtidal Waters of the North Carolina NERRS

A study was conducted to assess the status of ecological condition and potential human-health risks in subtidal estuarine waters throughout the North Carolina National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS) (Currituck Sound, Rachel Carson, Masonboro Island, and Zeke’s Island). Field work was conducted in September 2006 and incorporated multiple indicators of ecosystem condition including measures of water quality (dissolved oxygen, salinity, temperature, pH, nutrients and chlorophyll, suspended solids), sediment quality (granulometry, organic matter content, chemical contaminant concentrations), biological condition (diversity and abundances of benthic fauna, fish contaminant levels and pathologies), and human dimensions (fish-tissue contaminant levels relative to human-health consumption limits, various aesthetic properties). A probabilistic sampling design permitted statistical estimation of the spatial extent of degraded versus non-degraded condition across these estuaries relative to specified threshold levels of the various indicators (where possible). With some exceptions, the status of these reserves appeared to be in relatively good to fair ecological condition overall, with the majority of the area (about 54%) having various water quality, sediment quality, and biological (benthic) condition indicators rated in the healthy to intermediate range of corresponding guideline thresholds. Only three stations, representing 10.5% of the area, had one or more of these indicators rated as poor/degraded in all three categories. While such a conclusion is encouraging from a coastal management perspective, it should be viewed with some caution. For example, although co-occurrences of adverse biological and abiotic environmental conditions were limited, at least one indicator of ecological condition rated in the poor/degraded range was observed over a broader area (35.5%) represented by 11 of the 30 stations sampled. In addition, the fish-tissue contaminant data were not included in these overall spatial estimates; however, the majority of samples (77% of fish that were analyzed, from 79%, of stations where fish were caught) contained inorganic arsenic above the consumption limits for human cancer risks, though most likely derived from natural sources. Similarly, aesthetic indicators are not reflected in these spatial estimates of ecological condition, though there was evidence of noxious odors in sediments at many of the stations. Such symptoms reflect a growing realization that North Carolina estuaries are under multiple pressures from a variety of natural and human influences. These data also suggest that, while the current status of overall ecological condition appears to be good to fair, long-term monitoring is warranted to track potential changes in the future. This study establishes an important baseline of overall ecological condition within NC NERRS that can be used to evaluate any such future changes and to trigger appropriate management actions in this rapidly evolving coastal environment. (PDF contains 76 pages)

Support for Integrated Ecosystem Assessments of NOAA’s National Estuarine Research Reserves System (NERRS), Volume I: The Impacts of Coastal Development on the Ecology and Human Well-being of Tidal Creek Ecosystems of the US Southeast

A study was conducted, in association with the Sapelo Island and North Carolina National Estuarine Research Reserves (NERRs), to evaluate the impacts of coastal development on sentinel habitats (e.g., tidal creek ecosystems), including potential impacts to human health and well-being. Uplands associated with southeastern tidal creeks and the salt marshes they drain are popular locations for building homes, resorts, and recreational facilities because of the high quality of life and mild climate associated with these environments. Tidal creeks form part of the estuarine ecosystem characterized by high biological productivity, great ecological value, complex environmental gradients, and numerous interconnected processes. This research combined a watershed-level study integrating ecological, public health and human dimension attributes with watershed-level land use data. The approach used for this research was based upon a comparative watershed and ecosystem approach that sampled tidal creek networks draining developed watersheds (e.g., suburban, urban, and industrial) as well as undeveloped sites. The primary objective of this work was to clearly define the relationships between coastal development with its concomitant land use changes and non-point source pollution loading and the ecological and human health and well-being status of tidal creek ecosystems. Nineteen tidal creek systems, located along the southeastern United States coast from southern North Carolina to southern Georgia, were sampled during summer (June-August), 2005 and 2006. Within each system, creeks were divided into two primary segments based upon tidal zoning: intertidal (i.e., shallow, narrow headwater sections) and subtidal (i.e., deeper and wider sections), and watersheds were delineated for each segment. In total, we report findings on 24 intertidal and 19 subtidal creeks. Indicators sampled throughout each creek included water quality (e.g., dissolved oxygen concentration, salinity, nutrients, chlorophyll-a levels), sediment quality (e.g., characteristics, contaminants levels including emerging contaminants), pathogen and viral indicators, and abundance and genetic responses of biological resources (e.g., macrobenthic and nektonic communities, shellfish tissue contaminants, oyster microarray responses). For many indicators, the intertidally-dominated or headwater portions of tidal creeks were found to respond differently than the subtidally-dominated or larger and deeper portions of tidal creeks. Study results indicate that the integrity and productivity of headwater tidal creeks were impaired by land use changes and associated non-point source pollution, suggesting these habitats are valuable early warning sentinels of ensuing ecological impacts and potential public health threats. For these headwater creeks, this research has assisted the validation of a previously developed conceptual model for the southeastern US region. This conceptual model identified adverse changes that generally occurred in the physical and chemical environment (e.g., water quality indicators such as indicator bacteria for sewage pollution or sediment chemical contamination) when impervious cover levels in the watershed reach 10-20%. Ecological characteristics responded and were generally impaired when impervious cover levels exceed 20-30%. Estimates of impervious cover levels defining where human uses are impaired are currently being determined, but it appears that shellfish bed closures and the flooding vulnerability of headwater regions become a concern when impervious cover values exceed 10-30%. This information can be used to forecast the impacts of changing land use patterns on tidal creek environmental quality as well as associated human health and well-being. In addition, this study applied tools and technologies that are adaptable, transferable, and repeatable among the high quality NERRS sites as comparable reference entities to other nearby developed coastal watersheds. The findings herein will be of value in addressing local, regional and national needs for understanding multiple stressor (anthropogenic and human impacts) effects upon estuarine ecosystems and response trends in ecosystem condition with changing coastal impacts (i.e., development, climate change). (PDF contaions 88 pages)

A Biogeographic Assessment off North/Central California: To Support the Joint Management Plan Review for Cordell Bank, Gulf of the Farallones, and Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuaries: Phase I - Marine Fishes, Birds and Mammals.

In the spring of 2001, NOAA’s National Marine Sanctuary Program (NMSP) and National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), in consultation with the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), launched a 24-month effort to define and assess biogeographic patterns of selected marine species found within and adjacent to the boundaries of three west coast National Marine Sanctuaries. These sanctuaries, Monterey Bay, Gulf of the Farallones, and Cordell Bank are conducting a joint review process to update sanctuary management plans. The management plans for these sanctuaries have not been updated for over ten years and the status of the natural resources and their management issues in and around the sanctuaries may have changed. In addition, significant accomplishments in research and resource assessments have been made within the region. Thus, it is important to incorporate new and expanding knowledge into the revised management plans for these Sanctuaries.

The Grimsby Institute Group: Making it easy for students to use their own devices to learn

The Grimsby Institute wanted to create an infrastructure that would enable staff and students to use more mobile technology to enhance learning. They have improved the wifi connectivity in college and streamlined the software used to access college areas, as well as encouraging individuals to use their own technology. So far this has had a positive impact on retention and simplified the support that the college needs to provide, as well as saving the organisation money through some strategic changes.

Technology to support your reading

This guidance supported by a range of partner organisations including the National Union of Students gives you an overview of what you should expect, why you should expect it and organisations that can give further support. TDL

Ecosystem science capabilities required to support NOAA’s mission in the year 2020

The mission of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet our nation’s economic, social and environmental needs (NOAA, 2004). In meeting its marine stewardship responsibilities, NOAA seeks to ensure the sustainable use of resources and balance competing uses of coastal and marine ecosystems, recognizing both their human and natural components (NOAA, 2004). Authorities for executing these responsibilities come from over 90 separate pieces of Federal legislation, each with unique requirements and responsibilities. Few of these laws explicitly mandate an ecosystem approach to management (EAM) or supporting science. However, resource managers, the science community, and increasingly, the public, are recognizing that significantly greater connectedness among the scientific disciplines is needed to support management and stewardship responsibilities (Browman and Stergiou, 2004; 2005). Neither NOAA nor any other science agency can meet the increasing demand for ecosystem science products addressing each of its mandates individually. Even if it was possible, doing so would not provide the integration necessary to solve the increasingly complex array of management issues. This focus on the integration of science and management responsibilities into an ecosystem view is one of the centerpieces of the U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy’s report (USCOP, 2004), and the Administration’s response to that report in the U.S. Ocean Action Plan (CEQ, 2004). (PDF contains 100 pages)

Case study: Using iPads to deliver a personalised IT and learning strategy

Case study on how 16 - 18 year old students at Portsmouth College have access to an iPad mini to support independent and personalised learning.

Design support for turbomachinery

From the steam turbines which provide most of our electricity to the jet engines which have shrunk our World, turbomachines undoubtedly play a major role in life today. Competition in the turbomachinery industry is fiercely strong [Wisler, 1998], hence good aerodynamic design is vital. However, with efficiency levels already close to their theoretical maxima, companies are increasingly looking to reduce costs and increase reliability through improved design practice. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) can make a strong contribution to assisting this process as it has the potential to increase performance while reducing cost. The situation is, however, complicated by an ever decreasing number of engineers with sufficient design experience to reap the full benefits offered by CFD. With the large risks involved, novice designers of today are increasingly confined to refining old designs rather than gaining experience, like their forebears, through 'clean sheet' exercises. Hence it is desirable to capture the knowledge and experience of older designers, before it is lost, to assist the engineers of tomorrow. It is therefore the aim of this project to produce a design support tool which will not only store the appropriate CFD codes, but also provide a dynamic signpost (based on elicited knowledge and experience) to advise the engineer in their use. The signposting methodology developed for the aerospace industry [Clarkson and Hamilton, 1997] will provide the basic framework for the tool. This paper reviews current turbomachinery design practice (including an examination of the relevant CFD) in order to establish the important issues which a support tool must address. Current design support methodologies and their propriety are then reviewed, followed by a detailed description of the signposting concept. It then sets out a clear statement of the objectives for the research and the methods proposed to meet them. The paper concludes with a timetable of the work.

A new adaptive marine policy toolbox to support ecosystem-based approach to management

4 p.

Understanding Public Support for Externality-Correcting Taxes and Subsidies: A Lab Experiment

31 p.

Religious Coping, Social Support and Subjective Severity as Predictors of Posttraumatic Growth in People Affected by the Earthquake in Chile on 27/2/2010

The aim of this research is to study the impact of religious coping, social support and subjective severity on Posttraumatic Growth (PTG) in people who lost their homes after the earthquake in Chile in 2010 and who now live in transitional shelters. One hundred sixteen adult men and women were evaluated using a subjective severity scale, the Posttraumatic Growth Inventory (PTGI), the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS) scale of social support and the Brief RCOPE scale of religious coping. The multiple linear regression analysis shows that social support and positive religious coping have an impact on PTG. On using a bootstrap estimate, it was found that positive religious coping fully mediates the relationship between subjective severity and PTG.

Effectiveness of a Multi-Component Smoking Cessation Support Programme (McSCSP) for Patients with Severe Mental Disorders: Study Design

Only a few studies have examined the efficacy and safety of smoking cessation programmes in patients with mental disorders. The aim of this paper is to describe in detail the methodology used in the study as well as the Multi-component Smoking Cessation Support Programme in terms of pharmacological treatments and psychological interventions. An open-label 9-month follow-up study was conducted in Spain. A total of 82 clinically stable outpatients with schizophrenia, schizoaffective or bipolar disorder were enrolled. Treatment consisted of a programme specifically developed by the research team for individuals with severe mental disorders. The programme consisted of two phases: (1) weekly individual motivational therapy for 4-12 weeks, and (2) a 12-week active treatment phase. During this phase, at each study visit patients received a one- or two-week supply of medication (transdermal nicotine patches, varenicline or bupropion) with instructions on how to take it, in addition to group psychotherapy for smoking cessation. Evaluations were performed: (1) at the time of enrolment in the study, (2) during the 12-week active treatment phase of the study (weekly for the first 4 weeks and then biweekly), and (3) after the end of this phase (two follow-up assessments at weeks 12 and 24). Evaluations included: (1) smoking history, (2) substance use, (3) psychopathology, (4) adverse events, and (5) laboratory tests. The importance of this study lies in addressing a topical issue often ignored by psychiatrists: the unacceptably high rates of tobacco use in patients with severe mental disorders.

Socioeconomic status, parental support, motivation and self-confidence in youth competitive sport

World Conference on Psychology and Sociology 2012

Getting it right: incorporating social aspects into MPA planning and implementation

This brochure summarizes a series of case studies done in nine countries—Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Senegal, South Africa, Spain,Tanzania and Thailand—on the role of communities in the planning and implementation of marine protected areas (MPAs). The studies demonstrate that communities can be powerful allies in efforts for conservation and management of coastal and marine resources. They also underline the need for systematic attention, capacity building, funding and other resources for effective implementation of Programme Element 2 on governance, participation, equity, and benefit sharing of the Programme of Work on Protected Areas (PoWPA) of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD).