The Day Roads Became Rivers: A GIS-Based Assessment of Flash Floods in Worcester

In the last 4 years Worcester, UK has been hit by several intense convective rainstorms, which caused flash floods outside of existing surface drainage networks. This paper addresses two questions related to such events: Firstly to what extent can the occurrence of flash flood flow accumulation can be determined using only commonly available data and tools, assuming the rainfall events caused mainly surface runoff due to their tropical intensity and the relatively impermeable urban catchment surface? Secondly, are the flood in-cidents in Worcester aggravated by roads serving as preferential flow paths under these conditions? The as-sessment results indicated that roads do not have an influence on the flow path of flash flood rainfall in Worcester. Flow accumulation calculated with a 10m DEM, corresponds well with reported flood incidents. This basic assessment method can be used to inform the implementation of non structural flood mitigation and public awareness.

Relative Efficiencies of the Burkard 7-Day, Rotorod and Burkard Personal Samplers for Poaceae and Urticaceae Pollen under Field Conditions

Introduction: In aerobiological studies it is often necessary to compare concentration data recorded with different models of sampling instrument. Sampler efficiency typically varies from device to device, and depends on the target aerosol and local atmospheric conditions. To account for these differences inter-sampler correction factors may be applied, however for many pollen samplers and pollen taxa such correction factors do not exist and cannot be derived from existing published work. Materials and methods: In this study the relative efficiencies of the Burkard 7-Day Recording Volumetric Spore Trap, the Sampling Technologies Rotorod Model 20 and the Burkard Personal Volumetric Air Sampler were evaluated for Urticaceae and Poaceae pollen under field conditions, and the influence of wind speed and relative humidity on these efficiency relationships was assessed. Data for the two pollen taxa were collected during 2010 and 2011-12 respectively. Results: The three devices were found to record significantly different concentrations for both pollen taxa, with the exception of the 7-Day and Rotorod samplers for Poaceae pollen. Under the range of conditions present during the study wind speed was found to only have a significant impact on inter-sampler relationships involving the vertically orientated Burkard Personal sampler, whilst no interaction between relative efficiency and relative humidity was observed. Conclusions: Data collected with the three models of sampler should only be compared once the appropriate correction has been made, with wind speed taken into account where appropriate.

Determination of Alternaria spp. Habitats Using 7-Day Volumetric Spore Trap, Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model and Geographic Information System

There are many species among the Alternaria genus, which hosts on economically important crops causing significant yield losses. Less attention has been paid to fungi hosting on plants constituting substantial components of pastures and meadows. Alternaria spp. spores are also recognised as important allergens. A 7-day volumetric spore trap was used to monitor the concentration of airborne fungal spores. Air samples were collected in Worcester, England (2006–2010). Days with a high spore count were then selected. The longest episode that occurred within a five year study was chosen for modelling. Two source maps presenting distribution of crops under rotation and pastures in the UK were produced. Back trajectories were calculated using the HYSPLIT model. In ArcGIS clusters of trajectories were studied in connection with source maps by including the height above ground level and the speed of the air masses. During the episode no evidence for a long distance transport from the continent of Alternaria spp. spores was detected. The overall direction of the air masses fell within the range from South-West to North. The back trajectories indicated that the most important sources of Alternaria spp. spores were located in the West Midlands of England.

Intervention Recommendations to Minimize the 30-Day Risk-of-Readmission for Heart Failure

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2015

A fair day's wage? Perceptions of public sector pay

There is a scarcity of evidence pertaining to the general public's perception of public sector pay. Hence, in the present study, 161 women and 149 men were asked to estimate the wages 35 public sector professions should receive annually in the fictitious nation of Maldoria, based on a comparison value of an annual income of T10,000 for general practitioners. Analysis showed that only pilots were given a higher annual income than general practitioners; miners and local government workers were also provided with relatively high annual incomes. By contrast, newscasters were provided with the lowest annual income. Participants' sex did not affect these evaluations, and other demographic variables and public sector-related information of the participants were poor predictors of their evaluations. The implications of this research on public attitudes toward wage determination are discussed, and avenues for further research highlighted.

At the end of the day: Macmillan's account of the Cuban missile crisis

Pre-publicity for the final volume of Harold Macmillan’s memoirs, At the End of the Day, stressed that it would provide the British side of the Cuban missile crisis for the first time. The Churchillian model chosen, changes required by the Cabinet Office and Macmillan’s desire to rebuke those political opponents who claimed that the crisis demonstrated a lack of British influence in Washington, however ensured a focus on his personal relationship with President Kennedy. His larding the text with contemporary observations from his diaries also skewed Macmillan’s account and, in particular, underplayed the significance of British moves at the United Nations in New York to secure a credible United Nations inspection regime and a US guarantee of the inviolability of Cuba. Careful reconstruction of Macmillan’s real-time experience of the Cuban missile crisis demonstrates the limitations of his own account of this event

Testing the weak-form market efficiency and the day of the week effects of some African countries

The aims of this work are twofold. On the one hand, it aims to find evidence supporting the presence of the weak form efficiency of several emerging African stock markets by using both parametric as well as non parametric tests. The results indicate that none of the markets are characterised by random walks with the exception of the South African stock market. On the other hand, this study aims to detect the presence of the day of the week effects of these African stock markets. Results show the existence of day of the week effects, that is the typical negative Monday and Friday positive effects in several stock markets.

A beautiful day/Um dia lindo

Tradução da peça.

Day-ahead resource scheduling in smart grids considering Vehicle-to-Grid and network constraints

Energy resource scheduling becomes increasingly important, as the use of distributed resources is intensified and massive gridable vehicle use is envisaged. The present paper proposes a methodology for dayahead energy resource scheduling for smart grids considering the intensive use of distributed generation and of gridable vehicles, usually referred as Vehicle- o-Grid (V2G). This method considers that the energy resources are managed by a Virtual Power Player (VPP) which established contracts with V2G owners. It takes into account these contracts, the user´s requirements subjected to the VPP, and several discharge price steps. Full AC power flow calculation included in the model allows taking into account network constraints. The influence of the successive day requirements on the day-ahead optimal solution is discussed and considered in the proposed model. A case study with a 33 bus distribution network and V2G is used to illustrate the good performance of the proposed method.

ANN based day-ahead spinning reserve forecast for electricity market simulation

Electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment require adequate decision support tools, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. This paper deals with short-term predication of day-ahead spinning reserve (SR) requirement that helps the ISO to make effective and timely decisions. Based on these forecasted information, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead SR market. The proposed concepts and methodologies are implemented in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.