Exploration by Means of Computer Simulation of Nonlinear Hierarchical Structure of Neuronal Memory on the Model of Olfactory Bulb

Results of numerical experiments are introduced. Experiments were carried out by means of computer simulation on olfactory bulb for the purpose of checking of thinking mechanisms conceptual model, introduced in [2]. Key role of quasisymbol neurons in processes of pattern identification, existence of mental view, functions of cyclic connections between symbol and quasisymbol neurons as short-term memory, important role of synaptic plasticity in learning processes are confirmed numerically. Correctness of fundamental ideas put in base of conceptual model is confirmed on olfactory bulb at quantitative level.

E-service quality:development of a hierarchical model

Using survey data from 358 online customers, the study finds that the e-service quality construct conforms to the structure of a third-order factor model that links online service quality perceptions to distinct and actionable dimensions, including (1) website design, (2) fulfilment, (3) customer service, and (4) security/privacy. Each dimension is found to consist of several attributes that define the basis of e-service quality perceptions. A comprehensive specification of the construct, which includes attributes not covered in existing scales, is developed. The study contrasts a formative model consisting of 4 dimensions and 16 attributes against a reflective conceptualization. The results of this comparison indicate that studies using an incorrectly specified model overestimate the importance of certain e-service quality attributes. Global fit criteria are also found to support the detection of measurement misspecification. Meta-analytic data from 31,264 online customers are used to show that the developed measurement predicts customer behavior better than widely used scales, such as WebQual and E-S-Qual. The results show that the new measurement enables managers to assess e-service quality more accurately and predict customer behavior more reliably.

A flexible bio-inspired hierarchical model for analyzing musical timbre

A flexible and multipurpose bio-inspired hierarchical model for analyzing musical timbre is presented in this paper. Inspired by findings in the fields of neuroscience, computational neuroscience, and psychoacoustics, not only does the model extract spectral and temporal characteristics of a signal, but it also analyzes amplitude modulations on different timescales. It uses a cochlear filter bank to resolve the spectral components of a sound, lateral inhibition to enhance spectral resolution, and a modulation filter bank to extract the global temporal envelope and roughness of the sound from amplitude modulations. The model was evaluated in three applications. First, it was used to simulate subjective data from two roughness experiments. Second, it was used for musical instrument classification using the k-NN algorithm and a Bayesian network. Third, it was applied to find the features that characterize sounds whose timbres were labeled in an audiovisual experiment. The successful application of the proposed model in these diverse tasks revealed its potential in capturing timbral information.

Aleitamento materno, alimentação complementar, sobrepeso e obesidade em pré-escolares

OBJETIVO: Analisar a associação do sobrepeso e da obesidade com o aleitamento materno e a alimentação complementar em pré-escolares. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal envolvendo 566 crianças matriculadas em escolas particulares no município de São Paulo, SP, 2004-2005. A variável dependente foi sobrepeso e obesidade. Para a classificação do estado nutricional das crianças foram utilizadas as curvas de percentis do Índice de Massa Corporal para idade, classificando como sobrepeso valores e"P85 e modelo hierarquizado. RESULTADOS: A prevalência de sobrepeso e obesidade da população estudada foi de 34,4%. Foram fatores de proteção contra sobrepeso e obesidade o aleitamento materno exclusivo por seis meses ou mais (IC 95% [0,38;0,86]; OR=0,57; p=0,02) e o aleitamento materno por mais de 24 meses (IC 95% [0,05;0,37]; OR=0,13; p=0,00). CONCLUSÕES: Os resultados sugerem que o aleitamento materno pode proteger as crianças contra o sobrepeso e a obesidade, agregando mais uma vantagem ao leite materno.

Práticas de alimentação complementar no primeiro ano de vida e fatores associados

OBJETIVO: Investigar a prevalência de consumo de alimentos complementares e os fatores associados à alimentação complementar oportuna em menores de um ano. MÉTODOS: Participaram do estudo 1 176 crianças, durante a Campanha Nacional de Vacinação de 2003, em São Bernardo do Campo (SP), cujos acompanhantes responderam questionário que incluiu questões sobre a alimentação da criança nas 24 horas precedentes. A estimativa da prevalência de consumo dos alimentos complementares foi realizada por um modelo de regressão logística ajustado por idade; as medianas de introdução de alimentos por análise de sobrevida e os fatores associados à alimentação complementar oportuna por regressão de Poisson com ajuste robusto de variância e seleção hierarquizada de variáveis. RESULTADOS: Observou-se introdução precoce de alimentos complementares: no quarto mês, cerca de um terço das crianças recebiam suco de fruta e um quarto das crianças recebiam mingau, fruta ou sopa, ao passo que a probabilidade de consumir a comida da família aos oito meses foi baixa (48%). A mediana de idade para o consumo de frutas foi de 266 dias (IC95% 256-275), de papa de legumes foi 258 dias (IC95% 250-264) e comida da família, 292 dias (IC 95% 287-303). Os fatores associados ao consumo de alimentos sólidos antes dos seis meses de idade foram: sistema de assistência à saúde; idade materna; trabalho materno e uso de chupeta. CONCLUSÃO: O consumo precoce de alimentos sólidos, um risco potencial para a saúde infantil e para o desenvolvimento de doenças crônicas na idade adulta, evidenciam a necessidade de ações programáticas para reversão deste quadro.

Model for facilities or vendors location in a global scale considering several echelons in the Chain

The facilities location problem for companies with global operations is very complex and not well explored in the literature. This work proposes a MILP model that solves the problem through minimization of the total logistic cost. Main contributions of the model are the pioneer carrying cost calculation, the treatment given to the take-or-pay costs and to the international tax benefits such as drawback and added value taxes in Brazil. The model was successfully applied to a real case of a chemical industry with industrial plants and sales all over the world. The model application recommended a totally new sourcing model for the company.

A Model for comparing reduced impact logging with conventional logging for an Eastern Amazonian Forest

Using data from a logging experiment in the eastern Brazilian Amazon region, we develop a matrix growth and yield model that captures the dynamic effects of harvest system choice on forest structure and composition. Multinomial logistic regression is used to estimate the growth transition parameters for a 10-year time step, while a Poisson regression model is used to estimate recruitment parameters. The model is designed to be easily integrated with an economic model of decisionmaking to perform tropical forest policy analysis. The model is used to compare the long-run structure and composition of a stand arising from the choice of implementing either conventional logging techniques or more carefully planned and executed reduced-impact logging (RIL) techniques, contrasted against a baseline projection of an unlogged forest. Results from log and leave scenarios show that a stand logged according to Brazilian management requirements will require well over 120 years to recover its initial commercial volume, regardless of logging technique employed. Implementing RIL, however, accelerates this recovery. Scenarios imposing a 40-year cutting cycle raise the possibility of sustainable harvest volumes, although at significantly lower levels than is implied by current regulations. Meeting current Brazilian forest policy goals may require an increase in the planned total area of permanent production forest or the widespread adoption of silvicultural practices that increase stand recovery and volume accumulation rates after RIL harvests. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Derivation and external validation of a simple prediction model for the diagnosis of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Brazilian urban population

A risk score model was developed based in a population of 1,224 individuals from the general population without known diabetes aging 35 years or more from an urban Brazilian population sample in order to select individuals who should be screened in subsequent testing and improve the efficacy of public health assurance. External validation was performed in a second, independent, population from a different city ascertained through a similar epidemiological protocol. The risk score was developed by multiple logistic regression and model performance and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. Model`s capacity of predicting fasting blood glucose levels was tested analyzing data from a 5-year follow-up protocol conducted in the general population. Items independently and significantly associated with diabetes were age, BMI and known hypertension. Sensitivity, specificity and proportion of further testing necessary for the best cutoff value were 75.9, 66.9 and 37.2%, respectively. External validation confirmed the model`s adequacy (AUC equal to 0.72). Finally, model score was also capable of predicting fasting blood glucose progression in non-diabetic individuals in a 5-year follow-up period. In conclusion, this simple diabetes risk score was able to identify individuals with an increased likelihood of having diabetes and it can be used to stratify subpopulations in which performing of subsequent tests is necessary and probably cost-effective.

Early identification of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome by use of a validated prediction model

Objective: To identify prediction factors for the development of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome (LPHS). Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study. The study comprised of 203 patients, aged >= 14 years, admitted with complications of the severe form of leptospirosis at the Emilio Ribas Institute of Infectology (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1998 and 2004. Laboratory and demographic data were obtained and the severity of illness score and involvement of the lungs and others organs were determined. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of LPHS. A prospective validation cohort of 97 subjects with severe form of leptospirosis admitted at the same hospital between 2004 and 2006 was used to independently evaluate the predictive value of the model. Results: The overall mortality rate was 7.9%. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that five factors were independently associated with the development of LPHS: serum potassium (mmol/L) (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1-5.9); serum creatinine (mmol/L) (OR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1-1.4); respiratory rate (breaths/min) (OR = 1.1; 95% CI = 1.1-1.2); presenting shock (OR = 69.9; 95% CI = 20.1-236.4), and Glasgow Coma Scale Score (GCS) < 15 (OR = 7.7; 95% CI = 1.3-23.0). We used these findings to calculate the risk of LPHS by the use of a spreadsheet. In the validation cohort, the equation classified correctly 92% of patients (Kappa statistic = 0.80). Conclusions: We developed and validated a multivariate model for predicting LPHS. This tool should prove useful in identifying LPHS patients, allowing earlier management and thereby reducing mortality. (C) 2009 The British Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of different nonlinear functions to describe Nelore cattle growth

This work aims to compare different nonlinear functions for describing the growth curves of Nelore females. The growth curve parameters, their (co) variance components, and environmental and genetic effects were estimated jointly through a Bayesian hierarchical model. In the first stage of the hierarchy, 4 nonlinear functions were compared: Brody, Von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, and logistic. The analyses were carried out using 3 different data sets to check goodness of fit while having animals with few records. Three different assumptions about SD of fitting errors were considered: constancy throughout the trajectory, linear increasing until 3 yr of age and constancy thereafter, and variation following the nonlinear function applied in the first stage of the hierarchy. Comparisons of the overall goodness of fit were based on Akaike information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion, and the deviance information criterion. Goodness of fit at different points of the growth curve was compared applying the Gelfand`s check function. The posterior means of adult BW ranged from 531.78 to 586.89 kg. Greater estimates of adult BW were observed when the fitting error variance was considered constant along the trajectory. The models were not suitable to describe the SD of fitting errors at the beginning of the growth curve. All functions provided less accurate predictions at the beginning of growth, and predictions were more accurate after 48 mo of age. The prediction of adult BW using nonlinear functions can be accurate when growth curve parameters and their (co) variance components are estimated jointly. The hierarchical model used in the present study can be applied to the prediction of mature BW in herds in which a portion of the animals are culled before adult age. Gompertz, Von Bertalanffy, and Brody functions were adequate to establish mean growth patterns and to predict the adult BW of Nelore females. The Brody model was more accurate in predicting the birth weight of these animals and presented the best overall goodness of fit.

Tooth loss prevalence and risk indicators in an isolated population of Brazil

Objective. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence, extent, and risk indicators of tooth loss in an isolated population of Brazil. Material and methods. Two-hundred-and-forty-two subjects, ranging in age from 14 to 82 years (mean 36.2 years), were identified by census in an isolated population of Brazil. All consenting subjects received a full-mouth clinical (DFT index and information about missing teeth) and periodontal examination of 6 sites per tooth. Furthermore, they were interviewed using a structured written questionnaire in order to gather information about demographic, environmental, and biological variables. Results. Of the 200 subjects (80% response rate), 19 (9.5%) were edentulous, 90% had lost at least one tooth, and 39% had lost more than 8 teeth. The mean number of teeth lost was 9.5 (95% CI = 8.2-10.8). First mandibular molars were the most commonly missing teeth. In a multiple logistic regression analysis based on a theoretical hierarchical model of tooth loss, having more than 8 teeth lost was strongly associated with adult age (OR = 18.3-17.3, 95% CIs = 4.8-69.7 and 4.0-75.1) and female gender (OR = 5.9, 95% CI = 1.9-18.2) in the final model. Conclusions. Tooth loss was highly prevalent and extensive in this isolated population. Demographic and behavioral factors played an important role in tooth loss prevalence in this population.

A zero-augmented gamma mixed model for longitudinal data with many zeros

In many occupational safety interventions, the objective is to reduce the injury incidence as well as the mean claims cost once injury has occurred. The claims cost data within a period typically contain a large proportion of zero observations (no claim). The distribution thus comprises a point mass at 0 mixed with a non-degenerate parametric component. Essentially, the likelihood function can be factorized into two orthogonal components. These two components relate respectively to the effect of covariates on the incidence of claims and the magnitude of claims, given that claims are made. Furthermore, the longitudinal nature of the intervention inherently imposes some correlation among the observations. This paper introduces a zero-augmented gamma random effects model for analysing longitudinal data with many zeros. Adopting the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach reduces the original problem to the fitting of two independent GLMMs. The method is applied to evaluate the effectiveness of a workplace risk assessment teams program, trialled within the cleaning services of a Western Australian public hospital.

Adjustment of homeless adolescents to a crisis shelter: Application of a stress and coping model

The present study examined the utility of a stress and coping model of adaptation to a homeless shelter among homeless adolescents. Seventy-eight homeless adolescents were interviewed and completed self-administered scales at Time 1 (day of shelter entry) and Time 2 (day of discharge). The mean duration of stay at the shelter was 7.23 days (SD = 7.01). Predictors included appraisal (threat and self-efficacy), coping resources, and coping strategies (productive, nonproductive, and reference to others coping). Adjustment outcomes were Time I measures of global distress, physical health, clinician-and youthworker- rated social adjustment, and externalizing behavior and Time 2 youthworker-rated social adjustment and goal achievement. Results of hierarchical regression analyses indicated that after controlling for the effects of relevant background variables (number of other shelters visited, sexual, emotional, and physical abuse), measures of coping resources, appraisal, and coping strategies evidenced distinct relations with measures of adjustment in ways consistent with the model's predictions with few exceptions. In cross-sectional analyses better Time I adjustment was related to reports of higher levels of coping resources, self-efficacy beliefs, and productive coping strategies, and reports of lower levels of threat appraisal and nonproductive coping strategies. Prospective analyses showed a link between reports of higher levels of reference to others coping strategies and greater goal achievement and, unexpectedly, an association between lower self-efficacy beliefs and better Time 2 youthworker-rated social adjustment. Hence, whereas prospective analyses provide only limited support for the use of a stress and coping model in explaining the adjustment of homeless adolescents to a crisis shelter, cross-sectional findings provide stronger support.

Fitting genetic models to twin data with binary and ordered categorical responses: A comparison of structural equation modelling and Bayesian hierarchical models

We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.