Clustering barotrauma patients in ICU–A data mining based approach using ventilator variables

Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 9273

Nonlinear behavior of gelatin networks reveals a hierarchical structure

We investigate the strain hardening behavior of various gelatin networks-namely physical gelatin gel, chemically cross-linked gelatin gel, and a hybrid gel made of a combination of the former two-under large shear deformations using the pre-stress, strain ramp, and large amplitude oscillations shear protocols. Further, the internal structures of physical gelatin gels and chemically cross-linked gelatin gels were characterized by small angle neutron scattering (SANS) to enable their internal structures to be correlated with their nonlinear rheology. The Kratky plots of SANS data demonstrate the presence of small cross-linked aggregates within the chemically cross-linked network whereas, in the physical gelatin gels, a relatively homogeneous structure is observed. Through model fitting to the scattering data, we were able to obtain structural parameters, such as the correlation length (ξ), the cross-sectional polymer chain radius (Rc) and the fractal dimension (df) of the gel networks. The fractal dimension df obtained from the SANS data of the physical and chemically cross-linked gels is 1.31 and 1.53, respectively. These values are in excellent agreement with the ones obtained from a generalized nonlinear elastic theory that has been used to fit the stress-strain curves. The chemical cross-linking that generates coils and aggregates hinders the free stretching of the triple helix bundles in the physical gels.

A nonlinear threshold model for the dependence of extremes of stationary sequences

One of the main implications of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is that expected future returns on financial assets are not predictable if investors are risk neutral. In this paper we argue that financial time series offer more information than that this hypothesis seems to supply. In particular we postulate that runs of very large returns can be predictable for small time periods. In order to prove this we propose a TAR(3,1)-GARCH(1,1) model that is able to describe two different types of extreme events: a first type generated by large uncertainty regimes where runs of extremes are not predictable and a second type where extremes come from isolated dread/joy events. This model is new in the literature in nonlinear processes. Its novelty resides on two features of the model that make it different from previous TAR methodologies. The regimes are motivated by the occurrence of extreme values and the threshold variable is defined by the shock affecting the process in the preceding period. In this way this model is able to uncover dependence and clustering of extremes in high as well as in low volatility periods. This model is tested with data from General Motors stocks prices corresponding to two crises that had a substantial impact in financial markets worldwide; the Black Monday of October 1987 and September 11th, 2001. By analyzing the periods around these crises we find evidence of statistical significance of our model and thereby of predictability of extremes for September 11th but not for Black Monday. These findings support the hypotheses of a big negative event producing runs of negative returns in the first case, and of the burst of a worldwide stock market bubble in the second example. JEL classification: C12; C15; C22; C51 Keywords and Phrases: asymmetries, crises, extreme values, hypothesis testing, leverage effect, nonlinearities, threshold models

A bayesian spatial individual effects probit model of the 2010 UK general election

The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specic effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specic effects estimates provide additional evidence of North-South variations in Conservative Party support.

Comparing Multilevel Clustering Methods on Weighted Graphs : The Case of Worldwide Air Passenger Traffic 2000-2004

Specific properties emerge from the structure of large networks, such as that of worldwide air traffic, including a highly hierarchical node structure and multi-level small world sub-groups that strongly influence future dynamics. We have developed clustering methods to understand the form of these structures, to identify structural properties, and to evaluate the effects of these properties. Graph clustering methods are often constructed from different components: a metric, a clustering index, and a modularity measure to assess the quality of a clustering method. To understand the impact of each of these components on the clustering method, we explore and compare different combinations. These different combinations are used to compare multilevel clustering methods to delineate the effects of geographical distance, hubs, network densities, and bridges on worldwide air passenger traffic. The ultimate goal of this methodological research is to demonstrate evidence of combined effects in the development of an air traffic network. In fact, the network can be divided into different levels of âeurooecohesionâeuro, which can be qualified and measured by comparative studies (Newman, 2002; Guimera et al., 2005; Sales-Pardo et al., 2007).

Validation of the French version of the Hierarchical Personality Inventory for Children (HiPIC): Influence of gender and age on personality traits from 8 to 12 years

The study was designed to investigate the psychometric properties of the French version and the cross-language replicability of the Hierarchical Personality Inventory for Children (HiPIC). The HiPIC is an instrument aimed at assessing the five dimensions of the Five-Factor Model for Children. Subjects were 552 children aged between 8 and 12 years, rated by one or both parents. At the domain level, reliability ranged from .83 to .93 and at the facet level, reliability ranged from .69 to .89. Differences between genders were congruent with those found in the Dutch sample. Girls scored higher on Benevolence and Conscientiousness. Age was negatively correlated with Extraversion and Imagination. For girls, we also observed a decrease of Emotional Stability. A series of exploratory factor analyses confirmed the overall five-factor structure for girls and boys. Targeted factor analyses and congruence coefficients revealed high cross-language replicability at the domain and at the facet levels. The results showed that the French version of the HiPIC is a reliable and valid instrument for assessing personality with children and has a particularly high cross-language replicability.

Hierarchical conditional random fields for parts based models matching

A parts based model is a parametrization of an object class using a collection of landmarks following the object structure. The matching of parts based models is one of the problems where pairwise Conditional Random Fields have been successfully applied. The main reason of their effectiveness is tractable inference and learning due to the simplicity of involved graphs, usually trees. However, these models do not consider possible patterns of statistics among sets of landmarks, and thus they sufffer from using too myopic information. To overcome this limitation, we propoese a novel structure based on a hierarchical Conditional Random Fields, which we explain in the first part of this memory. We build a hierarchy of combinations of landmarks, where matching is performed taking into account the whole hierarchy. To preserve tractable inference we effectively sample the label set. We test our method on facial feature selection and human pose estimation on two challenging datasets: Buffy and MultiPIE. In the second part of this memory, we present a novel approach to multiple kernel combination that relies on stacked classification. This method can be used to evaluate the landmarks of the parts-based model approach. Our method is based on combining responses of a set of independent classifiers for each individual kernel. Unlike earlier approaches that linearly combine kernel responses, our approach uses them as inputs to another set of classifiers. We will show that we outperform state-of-the-art methods on most of the standard benchmark datasets.

Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.

The hierarchical structures of the NEO-PI-R and the 16PF5

The present study compares the higher-level dimensions and the hierarchical structures of the fifth edition of the 16 PF with those of the NEO PI-R. Both inventories measure personality according to five higher-level dimensions. These inventories were however constructed according to different methods (bottom-up vs. top-down). 386 participants filled out both questionnaires. Correlations, regressions and canonical correlations made it possible to compare the inventories. As expected they roughly measure the same aspects of personality. There is a coherent association among four of the five dimensions measured in the tests. However Agreeableness, the remaining dimension in the NEO PI-R, is not represented in the 16 PF 5. Our analyses confirmed the hierarchical structures of both instruments, but this confirmation was more complete in the case of the NEO PI-R. Indeed, a parallel analysis indicated that a four-factor solution should be considered in the case of the 16 PF 5. On the other hand, the NEO PI-R's five-factor solution was confirmed. The top-down construction of this instrument seems to make for a more legible structure. Of the two five-dimension constructs, the NEO PI-R thus seems the more reliable. This confirms the relevance of the Five Factor Model of personality.

Exploration of alpine orographic precipitation patterns with radar image processing and clustering techniques

A methodology of exploratory data analysis investigating the phenomenon of orographic precipitation enhancement is proposed. The precipitation observations obtained from three Swiss Doppler weather radars are analysed for the major precipitation event of August 2005 in the Alps. Image processing techniques are used to detect significant precipitation cells/pixels from radar images while filtering out spurious effects due to ground clutter. The contribution of topography to precipitation patterns is described by an extensive set of topographical descriptors computed from the digital elevation model at multiple spatial scales. Additionally, the motion vector field is derived from subsequent radar images and integrated into a set of topographic features to highlight the slopes exposed to main flows. Following the exploratory data analysis with a recent algorithm of spectral clustering, it is shown that orographic precipitation cells are generated under specific flow and topographic conditions. Repeatability of precipitation patterns in particular spatial locations is found to be linked to specific local terrain shapes, e.g. at the top of hills and on the upwind side of the mountains. This methodology and our empirical findings for the Alpine region provide a basis for building computational data-driven models of orographic enhancement and triggering of precipitation. Copyright (C) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society .

Clustering compositional data trajectories

Our essay aims at studying suitable statistical methods for the clustering ofcompositional data in situations where observations are constituted by trajectories ofcompositional data, that is, by sequences of composition measurements along a domain.Observed trajectories are known as “functional data” and several methods have beenproposed for their analysis.In particular, methods for clustering functional data, known as Functional ClusterAnalysis (FCA), have been applied by practitioners and scientists in many fields. To ourknowledge, FCA techniques have not been extended to cope with the problem ofclustering compositional data trajectories. In order to extend FCA techniques to theanalysis of compositional data, FCA clustering techniques have to be adapted by using asuitable compositional algebra.The present work centres on the following question: given a sample of compositionaldata trajectories, how can we formulate a segmentation procedure giving homogeneousclasses? To address this problem we follow the steps described below.First of all we adapt the well-known spline smoothing techniques in order to cope withthe smoothing of compositional data trajectories. In fact, an observed curve can bethought of as the sum of a smooth part plus some noise due to measurement errors.Spline smoothing techniques are used to isolate the smooth part of the trajectory:clustering algorithms are then applied to these smooth curves.The second step consists in building suitable metrics for measuring the dissimilaritybetween trajectories: we propose a metric that accounts for difference in both shape andlevel, and a metric accounting for differences in shape only.A simulation study is performed in order to evaluate the proposed methodologies, usingboth hierarchical and partitional clustering algorithm. The quality of the obtained resultsis assessed by means of several indices

Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Conserved chromosomal clustering of genes governed by chromatin regulators in Drosophila

BACKGROUND: The trithorax group (trxG) and Polycomb group (PcG) proteins are responsible for the maintenance of stable transcriptional patterns of many developmental regulators. They bind to specific regions of DNA and direct the post-translational modifications of histones, playing a role in the dynamics of chromatin structure. RESULTS: We have performed genome-wide expression studies of trx and ash2 mutants in Drosophila melanogaster. Using computational analysis of our microarray data, we have identified 25 clusters of genes potentially regulated by TRX. Most of these clusters consist of genes that encode structural proteins involved in cuticle formation. This organization appears to be a distinctive feature of the regulatory networks of TRX and other chromatin regulators, since we have observed the same arrangement in clusters after experiments performed with ASH2, as well as in experiments performed by others with NURF, dMyc, and ASH1. We have also found many of these clusters to be significantly conserved in D. simulans, D. yakuba, D. pseudoobscura and partially in Anopheles gambiae. CONCLUSION: The analysis of genes governed by chromatin regulators has led to the identification of clusters of functionally related genes conserved in other insect species, suggesting this chromosomal organization is biologically important. Moreover, our results indicate that TRX and other chromatin regulators may act globally on chromatin domains that contain transcriptionally co-regulated genes.

Clustering of health behaviours in adult survivors of childhood cancer and the general population.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about engagement in multiple health behaviours in childhood cancer survivors. METHODS: Using latent class analysis, we identified health behaviour patterns in 835 adult survivors of childhood cancer (age 20-35 years) and 1670 age- and sex-matched controls from the general population. Behaviour groups were determined from replies to questions on smoking, drinking, cannabis use, sporting activities, diet, sun protection and skin examination. RESULTS: The model identified four health behaviour patterns: 'risk-avoidance', with a generally healthy behaviour; 'moderate drinking', with higher levels of sporting activities, but moderate alcohol-consumption; 'risk-taking', engaging in several risk behaviours; and 'smoking', smoking but not drinking. Similar proportions of survivors and controls fell into the 'risk-avoiding' (42% vs 44%) and the 'risk-taking' cluster (14% vs 12%), but more survivors were in the 'moderate drinking' (39% vs 28%) and fewer in the 'smoking' cluster (5% vs 16%). Determinants of health behaviour clusters were gender, migration background, income and therapy. CONCLUSION: A comparable proportion of childhood cancer survivors as in the general population engage in multiple health-compromising behaviours. Because of increased vulnerability of survivors, multiple risk behaviours should be addressed in targeted health interventions.

Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for a particular type of diffuse, for Minnesota-type and for hierarchical priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.