Water scarcity and climate change impact and vulnerability in irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean river basins

Actualmente, la escasez de agua constituye un importante problema en muchos lugares del mundo. El crecimiento de la población, la creciente necesidad de alimentos, el desarrollo socio-económico y el cambio climático ejercen una importante y cada vez mayor presión sobre los recursos hídricos, a la que muchos países van a tener que enfrentarse en los próximos anos. La región Mediterránea es una de las regiones del mundo de mayor escasez de recursos hídricos, y es además una de las zonas más vulnerables al cambio climático. La mayoría de estudios sobre cambio climático prevén mayores temperaturas y una disminución de las precipitaciones, y una creciente escasez de agua debida a la disminución de recursos disponibles y al aumento de las demandas de riego. En el contexto actual de desarrollo de políticas se demanda cada vez más una mayor consideración del cambio climático en el marco de las políticas sectoriales. Sin embargo, los estudios enfocados a un solo sector no reflejan las múltiples dimensiones del los efectos del cambio climático. Numerosos estudios científicos han demostrado que el cambio climático es un fenómeno de naturaleza multi-dimensional y cuyos efectos se transmiten a múltiples escalas. Por tanto, es necesaria la producción de estudios y herramientas de análisis capaces de reflejar todas estas dimensiones y que contribuyan a la elaboración de políticas robustas en un contexto de cambio climático. Esta investigación pretende aportar una visión global de la problemática de la escasez de agua y los impactos, la vulnerabilidad y la adaptación al cambio climático en el contexto de la región mediterránea. La investigación presenta un marco integrado de modelización que se va ampliando progresivamente en un proceso secuencial y multi-escalar en el que en cada etapa se incorpora una nueva dimensión. La investigación consta de cuatro etapas que se abordan a lo largo de cuatro capítulos. En primer lugar, se estudia la vulnerabilidad económica de las explotaciones de regadío del Medio Guadiana, en España. Para ello, se utiliza un modelo de programación matemática en combinación con un modelo econométrico. A continuación, en la segunda etapa, se utiliza un modelo hidro-económico que incluye un modelo de cultivo para analizar los procesos que tienen lugar a escala de cultivo, explotación y cuenca teniendo en cuenta distintas escalas geográficas y de toma de decisiones. Esta herramienta permite el análisis de escenarios de cambio climático y la evaluación de posibles medidas de adaptación. La tercera fase consiste en el análisis de las barreras que dificultan la aplicación de procesos de adaptación para lo cual se analizan las redes socio-institucionales en la cuenca. Finalmente, la cuarta etapa aporta una visión sobre la escasez de agua y el cambio climático a escala nacional y regional mediante el estudio de distintos escenarios de futuro plausibles y los posibles efectos de las políticas en la escasez de agua. Para este análisis se utiliza un modelo econométrico de datos de panel para la región mediterránea y un modelo hidro-económico que se aplica a los casos de estudio de España y Jordania. Los resultados del estudio ponen de relieve la importancia de considerar múltiples escalas y múltiples dimensiones en el estudio de la gestión de los recursos hídricos y la adaptación al cambio climático en los contextos mediterráneos de escasez de agua estudiados. Los resultados muestran que los impactos del cambio climático en la cuenca del Guadiana y en el conjunto de España pueden comprometer la sostenibilidad del regadío y de los ecosistemas. El análisis a escala de cuenca hidrográfica resalta la importancia de las interacciones entre los distintos usuarios del agua y en concreto entre distintas comunidades de regantes, así como la necesidad de fortalecer el papel de las instituciones y de fomentar la creación de una visión común en la cuenca para facilitar la aplicación de los procesos de adaptación. Asimismo, los resultados de este trabajo evidencian también la capacidad y el papel fundamental de las políticas para lograr un desarrollo sostenible y la adaptación al cambio climático es regiones de escasez de agua tales como la región mediterránea. Especialmente, este trabajo pone de manifiesto el potencial de la Directiva Marco del Agua de la Unión Europea para lograr una efectiva adaptación al cambio climático. Sin embargo, en Jordania, además de la adaptación al cambio climático, es preciso diseñar estrategias de desarrollo sostenible más ambiciosas que contribuyan a reducir el riesgo futuro de escasez de agua. ABSTRACT Water scarcity is becoming a major concern in many parts of the world. Population growth, increasing needs for food production, socio-economic development and climate change represent pressures on water resources that many countries around the world will have to deal in the coming years. The Mediterranean region is one of the most water scarce regions of the world and is considered a climate change hotspot. Most projections of climate change envisage an increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation and a resulting reduction in water resources availability as a consequence of both reduced water availability and increased irrigation demands. Current policy development processes require the integration of climate change concerns into sectoral policies. However, sector-oriented studies often fail to address all the dimensions of climate change implications. Climate change research in the last years has evidenced the need for more integrated studies and methodologies that are capable of addressing the multi-scale and multi-dimensional nature of climate change. This research attempts to provide a comprehensive view of water scarcity and climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in Mediterranean contexts. It presents an integrated modelling framework that is progressively enlarged in a sequential multi-scale process in which a new dimension of climate change and water resources is addressed at every stage. It is comprised of four stages, each one explained in a different chapter. The first stage explores farm-level economic vulnerability in the Spanish Guadiana basin using a mathematical programming model in combination with an econometric model. Then, in a second stage, the use of a hydro-economic modelling framework that includes a crop growth model allows for the analysis of crop, farm and basin level processes taking into account different geographical and decision-making scales. This integrated tool is used for the analysis of climate change scenarios and for the assessment of potential adaptation options. The third stage includes the analysis of barriers to the effective implementation of adaptation processes based on socioinstitutional network analysis. Finally, a regional and country level perspective of water scarcity and climate change is provided focusing on different possible socio-economic development pathways and the effect of policies on future water scarcity. For this analysis, a panel-data econometric model and a hydro-economic model are applied for the analysis of the Mediterranean region and country level case studies in Spain and Jordan. The overall results of the study demonstrate the value of considering multiple scales and multiple dimensions in water management and climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean water scarce contexts analysed. Results show that climate change impacts in the Guadiana basin and in Spain may compromise the sustainability of irrigation systems and ecosystems. The analysis at the basin level highlights the prominent role of interactions between different water users and irrigation districts and the need to strengthen institutional capacity and common understanding in the basin to enhance the implementation of adaptation processes. The results of this research also illustrate the relevance of water policies in achieving sustainable development and climate change adaptation in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean region. Specifically, the EU Water Framework Directive emerges as a powerful trigger for climate change adaptation. However, in Jordan, outreaching sustainable development strategies are required in addition to climate change adaptation to reduce future risk of water scarcity.

Large scale multiphysics modeling of neurites

Situado en el límite entre Ingeniería, Informática y Biología, la mecánica computacional de las neuronas aparece como un nuevo campo interdisciplinar que potencialmente puede ser capaz de abordar problemas clínicos desde una perspectiva diferente. Este campo es multiescala por naturaleza, yendo desde la nanoescala (como, por ejemplo, los dímeros de tubulina) a la macroescala (como, por ejemplo, el tejido cerebral), y tiene como objetivo abordar problemas que son complejos, y algunas veces imposibles, de estudiar con medios experimentales. La modelización computacional ha sido ampliamente empleada en aplicaciones Neurocientíficas tan diversas como el crecimiento neuronal o la propagación de los potenciales de acción compuestos. Sin embargo, en la mayoría de los enfoques de modelización hechos hasta ahora, la interacción entre la célula y el medio/estímulo que la rodea ha sido muy poco explorada. A pesar de la tremenda importancia de esa relación en algunos desafíos médicos—como, por ejemplo, lesiones traumáticas en el cerebro, cáncer, la enfermedad del Alzheimer—un puente que relacione las propiedades electrofisiológicas-químicas y mecánicas desde la escala molecular al nivel celular todavía no existe. Con ese objetivo, esta investigación propone un marco computacional multiescala particularizado para dos escenarios respresentativos: el crecimiento del axón y el acomplamiento electrofisiológicomecánico de las neuritas. En el primer caso, se explora la relación entre los constituyentes moleculares del axón durante su crecimiento y sus propiedades mecánicas resultantes, mientras que en el último, un estímulo mecánico provoca deficiencias funcionales a nivel celular como consecuencia de sus alteraciones electrofisiológicas-químicas. La modelización computacional empleada en este trabajo es el método de las diferencias finitas, y es implementada en un nuevo programa llamado Neurite. Aunque el método de los elementos finitos es también explorado en parte de esta investigación, el método de las diferencias finitas tiene la flexibilidad y versatilidad necesaria para implementar mode los biológicos, así como la simplicidad matemática para extenderlos a simulaciones a gran escala con un coste computacional bajo. Centrándose primero en el efecto de las propiedades electrofisiológicas-químicas sobre las propiedades mecánicas, una versión adaptada de Neurite es desarrollada para simular la polimerización de los microtúbulos en el crecimiento del axón y proporcionar las propiedades mecánicas como función de la ocupación de los microtúbulos. Después de calibrar el modelo de crecimiento del axón frente a resultados experimentales disponibles en la literatura, las características mecánicas pueden ser evaluadas durante la simulación. Las propiedades mecánicas del axón muestran variaciones dramáticas en la punta de éste, donde el cono de crecimiento soporta las señales químicas y mecánicas. Bansándose en el conocimiento ganado con el modelo de diferencias finitas, y con el objetivo de ir de 1D a 3D, este esquema preliminar pero de una naturaleza innovadora allana el camino a futuros estudios con el método de los elementos finitos. Centrándose finalmente en el efecto de las propiedades mecánicas sobre las propiedades electrofisiológicas- químicas, Neurite es empleado para relacionar las cargas mecánicas macroscópicas con las deformaciones y velocidades de deformación a escala microscópica, y simular la propagación de la señal eléctrica en las neuritas bajo carga mecánica. Las simulaciones fueron calibradas con resultados experimentales publicados en la literatura, proporcionando, por tanto, un modelo capaz de predecir las alteraciones de las funciones electrofisiológicas neuronales bajo cargas externas dañinas, y uniendo lesiones mecánicas con las correspondientes deficiencias funcionales. Para abordar simulaciones a gran escala, aunque otras arquitecturas avanzadas basadas en muchos núcleos integrados (MICs) fueron consideradas, los solvers explícito e implícito se implementaron en unidades de procesamiento central (CPU) y unidades de procesamiento gráfico (GPUs). Estudios de escalabilidad fueron llevados acabo para ambas implementaciones mostrando resultados prometedores para casos de simulaciones extremadamente grandes con GPUs. Esta tesis abre la vía para futuros modelos mecánicos con el objetivo de unir las propiedades electrofisiológicas-químicas con las propiedades mecánicas. El objetivo general es mejorar el conocimiento de las comunidades médicas y de bioingeniería sobre la mecánica de las neuronas y las deficiencias funcionales que aparecen de los daños producidos por traumatismos mecánicos, como lesiones traumáticas en el cerebro, o enfermedades neurodegenerativas como la enfermedad del Alzheimer. ABSTRACT Sitting at the interface between Engineering, Computer Science and Biology, Computational Neuron Mechanics appears as a new interdisciplinary field potentially able to tackle clinical problems from a new perspective. This field is multiscale by nature, ranging from the nanoscale (e.g., tubulin dimers) to the macroscale (e.g., brain tissue), and aims at tackling problems that are complex, and sometime impossible, to study through experimental means. Computational modeling has been widely used in different Neuroscience applications as diverse as neuronal growth or compound action potential propagation. However, in the majority of the modeling approaches done in this field to date, the interactions between the cell and its surrounding media/stimulus have been rarely explored. Despite of the tremendous importance of such relationship in several medical challenges—e.g., traumatic brain injury (TBI), cancer, Alzheimer’s disease (AD)—a bridge between electrophysiological-chemical and mechanical properties of neurons from the molecular scale to the cell level is still lacking. To this end, this research proposes a multiscale computational framework particularized for two representative scenarios: axon growth and electrophysiological-mechanical coupling of neurites. In the former case, the relation between the molecular constituents of the axon during its growth and its resulting mechanical properties is explored, whereas in the latter, a mechanical stimulus provokes functional deficits at cell level as a consequence of its electrophysiological-chemical alterations. The computational modeling approach chosen in this work is the finite difference method (FDM), and was implemented in a new program called Neurite. Although the finite element method (FEM) is also explored as part of this research, the FDM provides the necessary flexibility and versatility to implement biological models, as well as the mathematical simplicity to extend them to large scale simulations with a low computational cost. Focusing first on the effect of electrophysiological-chemical properties on the mechanical proper ties, an adaptation of Neurite was developed to simulate microtubule polymerization in axonal growth and provide the axon mechanical properties as a function of microtubule occupancy. After calibrating the axon growth model against experimental results available in the literature, the mechanical characteristics can be tracked during the simulation. The axon mechanical properties show dramatic variations at the tip of the axon, where the growth cone supports the chemical and mechanical signaling. Based on the knowledge gained from the FDM scheme, and in order to go from 1D to 3D, this preliminary yet novel scheme paves the road for future studies with FEM. Focusing then on the effect of mechanical properties on the electrophysiological-chemical properties, Neurite was used to relate macroscopic mechanical loading to microscopic strains and strain rates, and simulate the electrical signal propagation along neurites under mechanical loading. The simulations were calibrated against experimental results published in the literature, thus providing a model able to predict the alteration of neuronal electrophysiological function under external damaging load, and linking mechanical injuries to subsequent acute functional deficits. To undertake large scale simulations, although other state-of-the-art architectures based on many integrated cores (MICs) were considered, the explicit and implicit solvers were implemented for central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs). Scalability studies were done for both implementations showing promising results for extremely large scale simulations with GPUs. This thesis opens the avenue for future mechanical modeling approaches aimed at linking electrophysiological- chemical properties to mechanical properties. Its overarching goal is to enhance the bioengineering and medical communities knowledge on neuronal mechanics and functional deficits arising from damages produced by direct mechanical insults, such as TBI, or neurodegenerative evolving illness, such as AD.

Diseño de instrumentos para configurar una política industrial en España basada en los postulados de la economía evolutiva

La evidencia empírica aplicada a países de cierto tamaño y desarrollo económico, muestra que existe una relación directa y positiva entre la intensidad de la industria manufacturera, medida como porcentaje de su PIB, y ciertas variables económicas como, el crecimiento, el desempleo y la balanza exterior de bienes y servicios. En el caso de esta última, se verifica empíricamente, que los países con una proporción de actividad manufacturera inferior al 20%, tienen una marcada tendencia a presentar déficits crónicos de balanza de bienes y servicios, lo que conduce a persistentes déficits por cuenta corriente, al ser el primer déficit el principal componente del segundo. Esto trae consigo un continuado incremento del endeudamiento externo que no cesa, y que terminará en algún momento por desequilibrar el conjunto de la economía de los países con esos déficits crónicos. Las anteriores conclusiones, abren una vía de orientación de la política económica, que tiene como objetivo la promoción de la industria manufacturera de cada país. Y esto es un hecho ya en 2014. Países relevantes, como Alemania o Francia en la UE, incluso los EEUU y últimamente el Reino Unido, y por supuesto países del área asiática como Japón, Corea del Sur y China, llevan años promoviendo su industria manufacturera. Resulta significativo, que el debate ideológico sobre la bondad de la aplicación política industrial por parte de los gobiernos, frente a las teorías liberales de mantener a los poderes públicos lejos de ese tipo de actividades, haya dado paso a un modelo generalizado de corte más bien horizontal, donde los países casi sin excepciones apoyan el desarrollo de sus empresas con numerosos instrumentos, que van bastante más lejos de los habituales de I+D. Se valora por tanto, la industria manufacturera como algo vital para el equilibrio económico. Incluso la UE, defensora durante décadas de la no intervención de los diferentes Estados miembros en actividades de promoción industrial más allá del apoyo a las actividades de I+D, realiza un giro copernicano, que termina en 2012 proclamando que la industria manufacturera es vital para el equilibrio económico de la UE, que hay que promoverla, e incluso marca un objetivo, precisamente del 20%, como contribución manufacturera a su PIB. Es decir, se da por asumido que los servicios no son un sustituto indefinido de la industria y que por tanto tienen un límite, lo que se contrapone frontalmente contra la anterior creencia de que el aumento de la participación de los servicios en la economía, no solo era bueno, sino un síntoma de desarrollo. Esta premisa ya ha dejado de ser cierta para esos y otros países. En cambio, en España nada de esto sucede en las dos últimas décadas, sino que la industria manufacturera no recibe especial atención de los poderes públicos y se desliza en una pendiente de disminución de su contribución al PIB, que incluso se acelera con la crisis económica que comienza en 2007, hasta alcanzar cifras del orden del 12% del PIB en 2013. La política económica que se aplica es la de la deflación de costes, con los efectos consecuentes sobre los salarios y sobre la capacidad de la economía de generar riqueza. Se apuesta por un modelo de mano de obra barata, que recuerda al de los años 60. Como indicador relevante de esta situación, lo que exporta la industria manufacturera española, no ha ganado en contenido tecnológico en los últimos quince años. Esta situación se ve empeorada por un hecho significativo adicional, y es que casi el 40% de las ventas de la industria manufacturera española provienen de empresas de propiedad extranjera, con lo que eso supone por una parte de dependencia tecnológica del exterior como en el caso del automóvil, y de incertidumbre sobre su futuro, al estar basadas en el mantenimiento en el futuro de una mano de obra barata, que frenará que los españoles que trabajan en esas empresas, progresen económicamente. La propuesta de esta Tesis, es en cambio apostar por un modelo de crecimiento para España que tenga como uno de sus pilares el desarrollo de una industria manufacturera sólida y con cada vez mayor contenido tecnológico. Para ello, se propone un Plan de política industrial, donde se incluye la creación de actores impulsores de este plan, que deben ser del máximo nivel político. Si los diferentes gobiernos no entienden y asumen esta necesidad de apoyo a la industria a largo plazo e independiente de los cambios políticos, no será posible llevar a cabo este Plan. Para su puesta en marcha, se propone la creación o refuerzo de numerosos instrumentos de apoyo a la industria manufacturera de carácter fundamentalmente horizontal que van mucho más allá de los habituales del I+D, y que en varios casos, tienen una clara semejanza con otros existentes ya en otros países desarrollados desde hace años. La promoción de la industria manufacturera necesita nuevos instrumentos, como una financiación a largo plazo para las empresas, una promoción ordenada y eficaz de la actividad internacional de las empresas exportadoras, la mayoría de las cuales exportan productos manufacturados, una educación y formación profesional que esté alineada con estos objetivos, unos instrumentos que apoyen en especial el desarrollo la industria manufacturera, o la participación minoritaria pero significativa, del Estado en empresas españolas pertenecientes a sectores estratégicos entre otros. En resumen, esta Tesis propone una alternativa de política económica radicalmente diferente a la de dejar la industria manufacturera española a su suerte, y basar el futuro económico de España en una mano de obra barata. ABSTRACT The empirical evidence, applied to countries of certain size and economic development, shows that there exists a direct and positive relationship between industrial manufacturing activity, measured as a percentage of GDP, and certain economic variables, such as growth, unemployment and the foreign balance of trade. In the case of the latter, it is verified empirically that the countries with a percentage of manufacturing activity below 20% have a marked tendency for chronic deficits of the balance of trade, leading to persistent deficits in the current account, being that the former deficit is the main component of the latter. This brings about a continued increase in foreign debt that does not cease, and that will end at some point by disrupting the economy of the countries with these chronic deficits. The previous conclusions open the way to a new direction for economic policy, which promotes industrial manufacturing in each country. This is already a fact in 2014. Relevant countries, such as Germany or France in the EU, even the US and ultimately the UK, and of course countries of East Asia such as Japan, South Korea and China, have been promoting their industrial manufacturing for years. It becomes significant that the ideological debate about the goodwill of the application of industrial policy by governments, against liberal theories that maintain public powers far from these kinds of activities, has taken a step towards a horizontal-cut generalized model, where countries, with almost no exception, rely on various instruments to develop their companies that go much further than the usual R&D. Industrial manufacture is therefore valued as vital for economic stability. Even the EU, proponent for decades of non-intervention policy that goes beyond R&D, has gone full circle, ending in 2012 by proclaiming that industrial manufacture is vital for the economic stability of the EU, that it must be promoted. They even mark precisely 20% as an objective for manufacturing as a percentage of GDP. In other words, it is a given that services are not an indefinite substitute for industry, and that therefore it has a limit as such. This rejects the notion that the increase in services at the cost of manufacture is not only healthy, but is also a symptom of development. This premise is no longer true for these and other countries. On the other hand, none of this happens in Spain, where industrial manufacture receives no special attention from the public authorities, and it slides on a downward slope of percentage contribution to GDP, which accelerates the economic crisis that begins in 2007, until manufacture reaches values of around 12% of GDP in 2013. The economic policy applied is that of cost deflation, with consequential effects on wages and the capacity of the economy to generate wealth. A model is proposed for cheaper labor, akin to that of the 1960s. As a relevant indicator of this situation, manufacturing exports from Spain have not grown technologically in the last 15 years. The situation is made worse by another significant fact: almost 40% of sales of the manufacturing industry originate from companies of foreign origin, which supposes on one hand a technological dependence on foreign countries, such as in the case of the automotive industry, and on the other hand uncertainty in its future, being that they are based on maintaining cheap labor in the future, which will slow economic progress of Spaniards working in these companies. The proposition of this Thesis is to bet on a growth model for Spain that has as one of its pillars the development of a solid manufacturing industry, with increasing technological content. For this, an industrial policy plan is proposed, which includes the creation of driving agents for this plan, which must be of maximum political level. If the various governments don’t understand and assume this necessity for support of industry in the long term, independent of political change, this plan will not be accomplished. To start it, the creation or reinforcement of numerous instruments to promote the manufacturing activities are proposed, with a fundamentally horizontal nature that goes far beyond the usual R&D, and that, in several cases, have a clear similarity with others existing in other countries, having been developed for years. The promotion of the manufacturing industry needs new instruments, such as the long-term financing of companies, an orderly and efficient promotion of international activity of exporting companies, the most of which export manufactured goods, education and professional training which is in tune with these objectives, some instruments which support in particular the development of the manufacturing industry, or the minor yet significant participation of the State in Spanish companies belonging to strategic sectors, among others. In summary, this Thesis proposes an different alternative to the economic policy of leaving the manufacturing industry of Spain to its chances, and to base the economic future of Spain on a cheaper labor force.

Self-organizing cultured neural networks: Image analysis techniques for longitudinal tracking and modeling of the underlying network structure

Esta tesis estudia la evolución estructural de conjuntos de neuronas como la capacidad de auto-organización desde conjuntos de neuronas separadas hasta que forman una red (clusterizada) compleja. Esta tesis contribuye con el diseño e implementación de un algoritmo no supervisado de segmentación basado en grafos con un coste computacional muy bajo. Este algoritmo proporciona de forma automática la estructura completa de la red a partir de imágenes de cultivos neuronales tomadas con microscopios de fase con una resolución muy alta. La estructura de la red es representada mediante un objeto matemático (matriz) cuyos nodos representan a las neuronas o grupos de neuronas y los enlaces son las conexiones reconstruidas entre ellos. Este algoritmo extrae también otras medidas morfológicas importantes que caracterizan a las neuronas y a las neuritas. A diferencia de otros algoritmos hasta el momento, que necesitan de fluorescencia y técnicas inmunocitoquímicas, el algoritmo propuesto permite el estudio longitudinal de forma no invasiva posibilitando el estudio durante la formación de un cultivo. Además, esta tesis, estudia de forma sistemática un grupo de variables topológicas que garantizan la posibilidad de cuantificar e investigar la progresión de las características principales durante el proceso de auto-organización del cultivo. Nuestros resultados muestran la existencia de un estado concreto correspondiente a redes con configuracin small-world y la emergencia de propiedades a micro- y meso-escala de la estructura de la red. Finalmente, identificamos los procesos físicos principales que guían las transformaciones morfológicas de los cultivos y proponemos un modelo de crecimiento de red que reproduce el comportamiento cuantitativamente de las observaciones experimentales. ABSTRACT The thesis analyzes the morphological evolution of assemblies of living neurons, as they self-organize from collections of separated cells into elaborated, clustered, networks. In particular, it contributes with the design and implementation of a graph-based unsupervised segmentation algorithm, having an associated very low computational cost. The processing automatically retrieves the whole network structure from large scale phase-contrast images taken at high resolution throughout the entire life of a cultured neuronal network. The network structure is represented by a mathematical object (a matrix) in which nodes are identified neurons or neurons clusters, and links are the reconstructed connections between them. The algorithm is also able to extract any other relevant morphological information characterizing neurons and neurites. More importantly, and at variance with other segmentation methods that require fluorescence imaging from immunocyto- chemistry techniques, our measures are non invasive and entitle us to carry out a fully longitudinal analysis during the maturation of a single culture. In turn, a systematic statistical analysis of a group of topological observables grants us the possibility of quantifying and tracking the progression of the main networks characteristics during the self-organization process of the culture. Our results point to the existence of a particular state corresponding to a small-world network configuration, in which several relevant graphs micro- and meso-scale properties emerge. Finally, we identify the main physical processes taking place during the cultures morphological transformations, and embed them into a simplified growth model that quantitatively reproduces the overall set of experimental observations.

Self-organizing cultured neural networks: Image analysis techniques for longitudinal tracking and modeling of the underlying network structure (versión actualizada)

Esta tesis estudia la evolución estructural de conjuntos de neuronas como la capacidad de auto-organización desde conjuntos de neuronas separadas hasta que forman una red (clusterizada) compleja. Esta tesis contribuye con el diseño e implementación de un algoritmo no supervisado de segmentación basado en grafos con un coste computacional muy bajo. Este algoritmo proporciona de forma automática la estructura completa de la red a partir de imágenes de cultivos neuronales tomadas con microscopios de fase con una resolución muy alta. La estructura de la red es representada mediante un objeto matemático (matriz) cuyos nodos representan a las neuronas o grupos de neuronas y los enlaces son las conexiones reconstruidas entre ellos. Este algoritmo extrae también otras medidas morfológicas importantes que caracterizan a las neuronas y a las neuritas. A diferencia de otros algoritmos hasta el momento, que necesitan de fluorescencia y técnicas inmunocitoquímicas, el algoritmo propuesto permite el estudio longitudinal de forma no invasiva posibilitando el estudio durante la formación de un cultivo. Además, esta tesis, estudia de forma sistemática un grupo de variables topológicas que garantizan la posibilidad de cuantificar e investigar la progresión de las características principales durante el proceso de auto-organización del cultivo. Nuestros resultados muestran la existencia de un estado concreto correspondiente a redes con configuracin small-world y la emergencia de propiedades a micro- y meso-escala de la estructura de la red. Finalmente, identificamos los procesos físicos principales que guían las transformaciones morfológicas de los cultivos y proponemos un modelo de crecimiento de red que reproduce el comportamiento cuantitativamente de las observaciones experimentales. ABSTRACT The thesis analyzes the morphological evolution of assemblies of living neurons, as they self-organize from collections of separated cells into elaborated, clustered, networks. In particular, it contributes with the design and implementation of a graph-based unsupervised segmentation algorithm, having an associated very low computational cost. The processing automatically retrieves the whole network structure from large scale phase-contrast images taken at high resolution throughout the entire life of a cultured neuronal network. The network structure is represented by a mathematical object (a matrix) in which nodes are identified neurons or neurons clusters, and links are the reconstructed connections between them. The algorithm is also able to extract any other relevant morphological information characterizing neurons and neurites. More importantly, and at variance with other segmentation methods that require fluorescence imaging from immunocyto- chemistry techniques, our measures are non invasive and entitle us to carry out a fully longitudinal analysis during the maturation of a single culture. In turn, a systematic statistical analysis of a group of topological observables grants us the possibility of quantifying and tracking the progression of the main networks characteristics during the self-organization process of the culture. Our results point to the existence of a particular state corresponding to a small-world network configuration, in which several relevant graphs micro- and meso-scale properties emerge. Finally, we identify the main physical processes taking place during the cultures morphological transformations, and embed them into a simplified growth model that quantitatively reproduces the overall set of experimental observations.

Diseño e implementación de un módulo de crecimiento bacteriano dependiente de nutrientes en el simulador GRO

Hace no más de una década que empezó a escucharse el término biología sintética. Este área de estudio emergente consiste en la ingeniería y programación de sistemas biológicos, tratando la biología como una tecnología programable a la que aplican los principios y metodologías de la ingeniería, con el fin de crear nuevas funcionalidades genéticas desde cero, procurando asÍ algún beneficio como por ejemplo, programar células bacterianas para producir biocombustibles. Sin embargo, para la creación de dichas funcionalidades es necesario conocer bien al organismo sobre el que se van a implantar. Por este motivo, los biólogos sintéticos emplean bacterias en sus estudios, ya que es la forma de vida más simple, está presente en prácticamente todos los nichos ecológicos, desempeña algunas de las funcionalidades vitales para los humanos y lo mas importante, se conoce prácticamente todo su material genético. Los experimentos son costosos en tiempo y dinero, siendo necesaria la ayuda de herramientas que faciliten esta labor, los simuladores. En PLASWIRES, proyecto europeo de biología sintética en el que se engloba este este trabajo, el simulador empleado es GRO. Sin embargo, en GRO el crecimiento de las bacterias ocurre de forma exponencial y sin restricciones, generando comportamientos poco realistas. Por ello, se ha considerado relevante en biología sintética, y en el simulador GRO en particular, disponer de un modelo de crecimiento bacteriano dependiente de los nutrientes. El desarrollo de este trabajo se centra en la implementación de un módulo de consumo de nutrientes en colonias de bacterias simuladas con GRO, introduciendo así la limitación de nutrientes y evitanto que las bacterias crezcan exponencialmente. Se han introducido nutrientes en el medio y la capacidad de consumirlos, con el objetivo de obtener un crecimiento ajustado al que ocurre en la naturaleza. Además, se ha desarrollado en GRO una nueva función de adquisición de volumen, que condiciona el volumen adquirido por cada bacteria en función de los nutrientes. La implentación de las dos aportaciones presentadas ha supuesto la adición de funcionalidad extra a GRO, convirtiéndolo en el único simulador de bacterias que tiene en cuenta el crecimiento bacteriano dependiente de nutrientes.---ABSTRACT---It has been in this last decade that the synthetic biology term began to be heard. This emergent area of study consists in the engineering and programming of biological systems, dealing with biology as a programable technology in which the engineering principles and methodologies are applied in order to create novel genetic functinalities from scratch, obtaining some advatages such as programmed bacteria in order to produce biofuels. However, to create this functionalities, it is necessary to know well the organisms in which they are going to be implemented. For this reason, synthetic biology researchers use bacteria, because it is the simplest life form, it can be found in almost all the ecological niche, it does some vital function to humans and, most important, almost all of its genetic information is known. Experiments are expensive in time and money, making it necessary to use tools to ease this task: the simulators. In PLASWIRES, the european synthetic biology project in which this work is included, the simulator used is GRO. However, the bacterial growth in GRO is exponential and it does not have restrictions, generating unrealistic behaviours. Therefore, it has been considered relevant in synthetic biology, and in a particular way in GRO, to provide a bacterial growth model dependent on nutrient. This work focuses on the implementation of a nutrient consumption module in bacteria colonies simulated with GRO, introducing a nuntrient limitation and avoiding the bacteria exponential growth. The module introduces nutrients and the capacity for bacteria to consume them, aiming to obtain realistic growth simulations that fit the observations made in nature. Moreover, an adquisition volumen function has been developed in GRO, determining the volumen depending on nutrients. This two contributions make GRO the only bacteria simulator that computes growth depending on nutrients

Urban microclimate and thermal comfort modelling: strategies for urban renovation

The urban microclimate plays an important role in building energy consumption and thermal comfort in outdoor spaces. Nowadays, cities need to increase energy efficiency, reduce pollutant emissions and mitigate the evident lack of sustainability. In light of this, attention has focused on the bioclimatic concepts use in the urban development. However, the speculative unsustainability of the growth model highlights the need to redirect the construction sector towards urban renovation using a bioclimatic approach. The public space plays a key role in improving the quality of today’s cities, especially in terms of providing places for citizens to meet and socialize in adequate thermal conditions. Thermal comfort affects perception of the environment, so microclimate conditions can be decisive for the success or failure of outdoor urban spaces and the activities held in them. For these reasons, the main focus of this work is on the definition of bioclimatic strategies for existing urban spaces, based on morpho-typological components, urban microclimate conditions and comfort requirements for all kinds of citizens. Two case studies were selected in Madrid, in a social housing neighbourhood constructed in the 1970s based on Rational Architecture style. Several renovation scenarios were performed using a computer simulation process based in ENVI-met and diverse microclimate conditions were compared. In addition, thermal comfort evaluation was carried out using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) in order to investigate the relationship between microclimate conditions and thermal comfort perception. This paper introduces the microclimate computer simulation process as a valuable support for decision-making for neighbourhood renovation projects in order to provide new and better solutions according to the thermal quality of public spaces and reducing energy consumption by creating and selecting better microclimate areas.

ANALISANDO A RELAÇÃO DOS VOLUMES DE EXPORTAÇÃO E DE IMPORTAÇÃO, PIB, TAXAS DE CÂMBIO E INFLAÇÃO NO PERÍODO DE 2004 A 2014.

Esta dissertação visa deslumbrar uma análise macroeconômica do Brasil, especialmente no que se refere à relação dos índices mensais dos volumes das exportações e das importações com os volumes mensais do PIB, da Taxa SELIC e as Taxas de Câmbio, conforme dados coletados no período de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2014, através de pesquisa literária referente aos históricos sobre cada conceito envolvido no âmbito da macroeconomia das varáveis estudadas. Foi realizado um estudo de caso embasado em dados de sites governamentais, no período delimitado, empregando-se o método de regressão linear, com base na Teoria da correlação de Pearson, demonstrando os resultados obtidos no período do estudo para as varáveis estudadas. Desta maneira, conseguiu-se estudar e analisar como as variáveis dependentes (resposta): volume das exportações e volume das importações estão relacionadas com as varáveis independentes (explicativas): PIB, Taxa Selic e taxa de Câmbio. Os resultados apurados no presente estudo permitem identificar que existe correlação moderada e negativa, quando analisadas a Taxa Selic e a Taxa de Câmbio com os volumes das exportações e das importações, enquanto o PIB apresenta correlação forte e positiva na análise com os volumes das exportações e das importações

Identifying the role of natural resources in knowledge-based strategies of development

Knowledge has adopted a preferential role in the explanation of development while the evidence about the effect of natural resources in countries’ performance is more controversial in the economic literature. This paper tries to demonstrate that natural resources may positively affect growth in countries with a strong natural resources specialization pattern although the magnitude of these effects depend on the type of resources and on other aspects related to the production and innovation systems. The positive trajectory described by a set of national economies mainly specialized in natural resources and low-tech industries invites us to analyze what is the combination of factors that serves as engine for a sustainable development process. With panel data for the period 1996-2008 we estimate an applied growth model where both traditional factors and other more related to innovation and absorptive capabilities are taken into account. Our empirical findings show that according to the postulates of a knowledge-based approach, a framework that combines physical and intangible factors is more suitable for the definition of development strategies in those prosperous economies dominated by natural resources and connected activities, while the internationalization process of activities and technologies become also a very relevant aspect.

Emergent Brazil and the Curse of the ‘Hen’s Flight’. CEPS Working Document No. 379, 27 February 2013

The ‘Emergent Brazil’ growth model is reaching its limits. Its main engines have been slowing significantly since the beginning of the global financial and economic crisis. Even its much-praised predictable macroeconomic policy has been eroded by political interference. Inflationary pressures are growing and GDP performance is anaemic. As ominous, Brazil cannot compensate for its domestic deficiencies with an export drive. Commodity exports are suffering with the world economic slow-down and the manufacturing industries’ competitiveness is in sharp decline. Brazil has put all its trade negotiation eggs into the South American and WTO baskets, and now its export market share is threatened by the Doha Round paralysis, the Latin American Alianza del Pacífico, and the US-led initiatives for a Trans-Pacific Partnership and a trade and investment agreement with the EU. Paradoxically, this alarming situation opens a window of opportunity. There is a mounting national consensus on the need to tackle head-on the country’s and its industries’ lack of competitiveness. That means finding a solution to the much-decried ‘Brazil Cost’ and stimulating private-sector investment. It also entails an aggressive trade-negotiating stance in order to secure better access to foreign markets and to foster more competition in the domestic one. The most promising near-term goal would be the conclusion of the EU–Mercosur trade talks. A scenario to overcome the paralysis of these negotiations could trail two parallel paths: bilateral EU–Brazil agreements on ‘anything but trade’ combined with a sequencing of the EU–Mercosur talks where each member of the South American bloc could adopt faster or slower liberalisation commitments and schedules.

Cyclical dimensions of labour mobility after EU enlargement. Bruegel Working Paper 2009/03, May 2009

At a time of symmetric global slowdown, migration cannot contribute as much to absorbing economic shocks as it could if the shock were asymmetric. • Early evidence suggests that the crisis has led to a drop in immigration and even net return migration from some countries. This has helped the adjustment of former EU15 host countries and has exacerbated adjustment in former source countries in the new member states. In the short run, the stock of new member-state migrants in the EU15 will fall owing to diminished job opportunities for migrants. • Changes in the unemployment rate in the host country are found to impact migration more than that of changes in the unemployment rate in the source country. In part, this can be explained by the disproportionate risk of migrants losing their jobs in the downturn. • In the longer run, the crisis is set to increase migration from the new member states compared to what would have been the case without the crisis. This is because the crisis has undermined the economic growth model of those new member states that relied heavily on external financing to fuel their growth.

Social cohesion in Europe after the crisis

In the last few years, Europe has been forced to re-think its socio-economic model. Social indicators speak for themselves. Real household income declined significantly between 2008 and 2012, employment rates are lower and the number of people in poverty saw a steady rise with a growing divergence between EU countries. In the eurozone, cuts in public spending and internal devaluation have been the main tools to aim at a correction of unsustainable fiscal positions and a strengthening of competitiveness. It has carried a heavy social price tag. Outside of the eurozone, austerity has also been the prevailing policy, seen as inevitable to avoid economic instability. The crisis has not hit everyone equally. The general losses have been high, but there have also been some quite important redistributive effects. With all the difficulties of defining and measuring 'fairness', it is clear that the adjustment has not been equitable. Apart from issues of market failure, there have been direct increases of inequality within each of the member states. Higher poverty rates have been observed, rises in inequalities between higher and lower income earners as well as intergenerational inequalities between age groups. Long-term consequences are only beginning to surface in the public debate as the most immediate pressures of the crisis are slowly overcome. In this report, the authors first of all look at the results of the survey we have carried out in seven European countries and review perceptions of the socio-economic model. Subsequently, they assess the importance of the social dimension in the broader context of the European growth model. The authors discuss the impact of the structural challenges of globalisation, demography and technological change. They then review the EU’s performance in the crisis. Finally, the authors make a number of recommendations on how to bridge the gap between Europeans‘ expectations and reality.

Growing global brands in foreign markets: A brand equity perspective. Impact of national culture on trademark registrations in emerging economy: Evidence from Russia. ACES Working Papers, August 2010

In this study we explore how firms deploy intellectual property assets (trademarks) in international context and the impact of cultural characteristics on such activities. Trademarks capture important elements of firm's brand-building efforts. Using growth model, a special case of hierarchical linear model, we demonstrate that that stock of trademarks in foreign market increase future trademark activity. Also, we explore the moderating roles of two cultural dimensions, individualism and masculinity, on such relationships. The findings indicated that firms from countries closer to host market (Russia) on individualism dimension tend to register more trademarks in host market. The opposite result is observed for masculinity dimension.

Internationalising the currency while leveraging massively: the case of China. Bruegel Working Paper 2015/12, October 2015

This paper reviews the steps that China has taken towards financial reform with a particular focus on capital account liberalisation and internationalisation of the use of the renminbi. • After a slowdown in reform momentum during the global financial crisis, there is a clear push towards reform, especially in terms of RMB internationalisation. • During the same period, though, China’s debt has doubled, reaching levels that are clearly above those of most emerging markets. This increases the risks embedded in financial reform and, in particular, capital account liberalisation. • At this juncture, however, China has no option but to press for reform since the current growth model is no longer working and China urgently needs to better allocate its savings.