Uncertainty Characterization Of A Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model By Using Grey Numbers

A procedure for characterizing global uncertainty of a rainfall-runoff simulation model based on using grey numbers is presented. By using the grey numbers technique the uncertainty is characterized by an interval; once the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model have been properly defined as grey numbers, by using the grey mathematics and functions it is possible to obtain simulated discharges in the form of grey numbers whose envelope defines a band which represents the vagueness/uncertainty associated with the simulated variable. The grey numbers representing the model parameters are estimated in such a way that the band obtained from the envelope of simulated grey discharges includes an assigned percentage of observed discharge values and is at the same time as narrow as possible. The approach is applied to a real case study highlighting that a rigorous application of the procedure for direct simulation through the rainfall-runoff model with grey parameters involves long computational times. However, these times can be significantly reduced using a simplified computing procedure with minimal approximations in the quantification of the grey numbers representing the simulated discharges. Relying on this simplified procedure, the conceptual rainfall-runoff grey model is thus calibrated and the uncertainty bands obtained both downstream of the calibration process and downstream of the validation process are compared with those obtained by using a well-established approach, like the GLUE approach, for characterizing uncertainty. The results of the comparison show that the proposed approach may represent a valid tool for characterizing the global uncertainty associable with the output of a rainfall-runoff simulation model.

Interview with Jane West

Abstract: In her July 15, 2013 interview with Martha Manning, Jane West details her time at Winthrop as a Biology major in the 1960s. Briefly, West discusses student life and Winthrop traditions, but she provides insight into her life student teaching at Florence High School. Additionally, West includes her experience in required courses like English and Math, as well as experiments conducted in her Biology courses. West concludes the interview with her overall perceptions of Winthrop. This interview was conducted for inclusion into the Louise Pettus Archives and Special Collections Oral History Program.

Haematology of captive grey-brocket deer Mazama gouazoubira (Fischer, 1814) (Cervidae: Odocoileinae).

Reference intervals for haematologic and total plasma proteins profiles were determined for 11 physically restrained adult grey-brocket deer. Erythrocytic alterations, as discrete to moderate poikilocytosis, were observed in all animals. Red and white blood cells counts were determined by manual methodology. Obtained erythron and leukon values were slightly higher than previous reports. Statistical difference was not demonstrated between stags and hinds. No previous studies reported blood values for captive grey-brocket deer obtained by manual methods. Also, the authors suggest that future studies on deer haematology should be focused on technique evaluation and improvement, considering the unusual erythrocytic morphology.

Helminthological screening of free-ranging grey brocket deer Mazama gouazoubira Fischer, 1817 (Cervidae: Odocoileini) from Brazilian Pantanal wetlands, with considerations on Pygarginema verrucosa (Molin, 1860) Kadenatzii, 1948 (Spirocercidae: Ascaropsinae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Blockade of 5-HT2 receptors in the periaqueductal grey matter (PAG) abolishes the anxiolytic-like effect of 5-HT1A receptor antagonism in the median raphe nucleus in mice

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

5-HT2 receptor activation in the midbrain periaqueductal grey (PAG) reduces anxiety-like behaviour in mice

It is widely acknowledged that the indoleamine neurotransmitter serotonin (5-HT) plays a dual role in the regulation of anxiety, a role that in part depends upon neuroanatomical locus of action. Thus, whereas stimulation of 5-HT1A or 5-HT2 receptors in the limbic forebrain (amygdala, hippocampus) enhances anxiety-like responding in rodents, activation of corresponding receptor populations in the midbrain periaqueductal grey (PAG) more often than not reduce anxiety-like behaviour. The present study specifically concerns the anxiety-modulating influence of 5-HT2 receptors within the mouse PAG. Experiment 1 assessed the effects of intra-PAG infusions of the 5-HT2B/2C receptor agonist mCPP (0, 0.03, 0.1 or 0.3 nmol/0.1 mu l) on the behaviour of mice exposed to the elevated plus-maze. As mCPP acts preferentially at 5-HT2B and 5-HT2C receptors, Experiment 2 investigated its effects in animals pretreated with ketanserin, a preferential 5-HT2A/2C receptor antagonist. In both cases, test sessions were videotaped and subsequently, scored for anxiety-like behaviour (e.g., percentage of open arm entries and percentage of open arm time) as well as general locomotor activity (closed arm entries). The results of Experiment I showed that mCPP microinfusions (0.03 and 0.1 nmol) into the PAG of mice decreased behavioural indices of anxiety without significantly altering general activity measures. In Experiment 2, the anxiolytic-like profile of intra-PAG mCPP (0.03 nmol) was substantially attenuated by intra-PAG pretreatment with an intrinsically inactive dose of the preferential 5-HT2A/2C receptor antagonist, ketanserin (10 nmol/0.1 mu l). Together, these data suggest that 5HT(2C) receptor populations within the midbrain PAG play an inhibitory role in plus-maze anxiety in mice. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermoregulation by an Australian murine rodent, the ash-grey mouse (Pseudomys albocinereus)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effect of foliar and substrate fertilization on lady palm seedling growth and development

Lady palm, [Rhapis excelsa (Thunberg) Henry ex. Rehder] is one of the most cultivated ornamental palms in the world, for use as a vase plant or in shaded landscapes. Because limited information exists on lady palm response to fertilizers, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of different types of fertilization and substrates on lady palm seedling growth and development. Three year old lady palms were planted in 8-L pots, filled with a mix of soil, manure, and sand 1:1:1 (v:v:v), placed under a 50% shade, and irrigated with microspray. Treatments were substrate fertilization with 500 g P(2)O(5) and 100 g K(2)O per m(3); fertilization with 1.8 kg of P(2)O(5) (simple superphosphate) per m3; 50 g of nitrogen (N), P(2)O(5), and K(2)O of a granulated fertilizer (10:10:10) per m(3), control (without fertilization), and a foliar fertilization in addition to these treatments using the commercial product Biofert (8:9:9). Treatments were replicated four times in a randomized block design. Each treatment plot consisted of four plants. Data were collected at 140, 170, 200, 230, 260, and 290 days after transplanting (DAT) for plant heights, stem diameter at substrate level, number of leaves, shoots, and canopy, roots fresh and dry matter samples were harvest at 290 days. Foliar fertilization resulted in significantly greater plant height in a 140, 120, 200, and 230 DAT and plant diameter on the 140, 260, and 290 DAT. There was interaction among factors for number of leaves with fertilization based on P(2)O(5) and K(2)O when leaf fertilizer was added that resulted in a greater number of leaves.

Participation of the dorsal periaqueductal grey matter in the hypoxic ventilatory response in unanaesthetized rats

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Genomic analysis for managing small and endangered populations: a case study in Tyrol Grey cattle

Analysis of genomic data is increasingly becoming part of the livestock industry. Therefore, the routine collection of genomic information would be an invaluable resource for effective management of breeding programs in small, endangered populations. The objective of the paper was to demonstrate how genomic data could be used to analyse (1) linkage disequlibrium (LD), LD decay and the effective population size (NeLD); (2) Inbreeding level and effective population size (NeROH) based on runs of homozygosity (ROH); (3) Prediction of genomic breeding values (GEBV) using small within-breed and genomic information from other breeds. The Tyrol Grey population was used as an example, with the goal to highlight the potential of genomic analyses for small breeds. In addition to our own results we discuss additional use of genomics to assess relatedness, admixture proportions, and inheritance of harmful variants. The example data set consisted of 218 Tyrol Grey bull genotypes, which were all available AI bulls in the population. After standard quality control restrictions 34,581 SNPs remained for the analysis. A separate quality control was applied to determine ROH levels based on Illumina GenCall and Illumina GenTrain scores, resulting into 211 bulls and 33,604 SNPs. LD was computed as the squared correlation coefficient between SNPs within a 10 mega base pair (Mb) region. ROHs were derived based on regions covering at least 4, 8, and 16 Mb, suggesting that animals had common ancestors approximately 12, 6, and 3 generations ago, respectively. The corresponding mean inbreeding coefficients (F ROH) were 4.0% for 4 Mb, 2.9% for 8 Mb and 1.6% for 16 Mb runs. With an average generation interval of 5.66 years, estimated NeROH was 125 (NeROH>16 Mb), 186 (NeROH>8 Mb) and 370 (NeROH>4 Mb) indicating strict avoidance of close inbreeding in the population. The LD was used as an alternative method to infer the population history and the Ne. The results show a continuous decrease in NeLD, to 780, 120, and 80 for 100, 10, and 5 generations ago, respectively. Genomic selection was developed for and is working well in large breeds. The same methodology was applied in Tyrol Grey cattle, using different reference populations. Contrary to the expectations, the accuracy of GEBVs with very small within breed reference populations were very high, between 0.13-0.91 and 0.12-0.63, when estimated breeding values and deregressed breeding values were used as pseudo-phenotypes, respectively. Subsequent analyses confirmed the high accuracies being a consequence of low reliabilities of pseudo-phenotypes in the validation set, thus being heavily influenced by parent averages. Multi-breed and across breed reference sets gave inconsistent and lower accuracies. Genomic information may have a crucial role in management of small breeds, even if its primary usage differs from that of large breeds. It allows to assess relatedness between individuals, trends in inbreeding and to take decisions accordingly. These decisions would be based on the real genome architecture, rather than conventional pedigree information, which can be missing or incomplete. We strongly suggest the routine genotyping of all individuals that belong to a small breed in order to facilitate the effective management of endangered livestock populations.