Juvenile delinquency in Switzerland over 50 years: assessing trends beyond statistics

The general public seems to be convinced that juvenile delinquency has massively increased over the last decades. However, this assumption is much less popular among academics and some media where doubts about the reality of this trend are often expressed. In the present paper, trends are followed using conviction statistics over 50 years, police and victimization data since the 1980s, and self-report data collected since 1992. All sources consistently point to a massive increase of offending among juveniles, particularly for violent offences during the 1990s. Given that trends were similar in most European countries, explanations should be sought at the European rather than the national level. The available evidence points to possible effects of increased opportunities for property offences since 1950, and although causality remains hard to prove, effects of increased exposure to extreme media violence since 1985.

A general theory of rank testing

This paper develops an approach to rank testing that nests all existing rank tests andsimplifies their asymptotics. The approach is based on the fact that implicit in every ranktest there are estimators of the null spaces of the matrix in question. The approach yieldsmany new insights about the behavior of rank testing statistics under the null as well as localand global alternatives in both the standard and the cointegration setting. The approach alsosuggests many new rank tests based on alternative estimates of the null spaces as well as thenew fixed-b theory. A brief Monte Carlo study illustrates the results.

Educational achievement in Swiss childhood cancer survivors compared with the general population.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to describe educational achievements of childhood cancer survivors in Switzerland compared with the general population. In particular, the authors investigated educational problems during childhood, final educational achievement in adulthood, and its predictors. METHODS: Childhood cancer survivors who were aged <16 years at diagnosis from 1976 to 2003 who had survived for ≥5 years and were currently ages 20 to 40 years received a postal questionnaire during 2007 to 2009. Controls were respondents of the Swiss Health Survey ages 20 to 40 years. Educational achievement included compulsory schooling, vocational training, upper secondary schooling, and university degree. The analysis was weighted to optimize comparability of the populations. The authors analyzed the association between demographic and clinical predictors and educational achievement using multivariable logistic regression. Subgroup analyses focused on survivors aged ≥27 years. RESULTS: One-third of survivors encountered educational problems during schooling (30% repeated 1 year, and 35% received supportive tutoring). In the total sample, more survivors than controls achieved compulsory schooling only (8.7% vs 5.2%) and fewer acquired a university degree (7.3% vs 11%), but more survivors than controls achieved an upper secondary education (36.1 vs 24.1%). In those aged ≥27 years, differences in compulsory schooling and university education largely disappeared. In survivors and controls, sex, nationality, language region, and migration background were strong predictors of achievement. Survivors of central nervous system tumors or those who had a relapse had poorer outcomes (P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Childhood cancer survivors encountered problems during schooling and completed professional education with some delay. However, with the exception of patients who had central nervous system tumors and those who experienced a relapse, the final educational achievement in survivors of child cancer was comparable to that of the general population.

Meta-analysis of correlated traits via summary statistics from GWASs with an application in hypertension

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified many genetic variants underlying complex traits. Many detected genetic loci harbor variants that associate with multiple-even distinct-traits. Most current analysis approaches focus on single traits, even though the final results from multiple traits are evaluated together. Such approaches miss the opportunity to systemically integrate the phenome-wide data available for genetic association analysis. In this study, we propose a general approach that can integrate association evidence from summary statistics of multiple traits, either correlated, independent, continuous, or binary traits, which might come from the same or different studies. We allow for trait heterogeneity effects. Population structure and cryptic relatedness can also be controlled. Our simulations suggest that the proposed method has improved statistical power over single-trait analysis in most of the cases we studied. We applied our method to the Continental Origins and Genetic Epidemiology Network (COGENT) African ancestry samples for three blood pressure traits and identified four loci (CHIC2, HOXA-EVX1, IGFBP1/IGFBP3, and CDH17; p < 5.0 × 10(-8)) associated with hypertension-related traits that were missed by a single-trait analysis in the original report. Six additional loci with suggestive association evidence (p < 5.0 × 10(-7)) were also observed, including CACNA1D and WNT3. Our study strongly suggests that analyzing multiple phenotypes can improve statistical power and that such analysis can be executed with the summary statistics from GWASs. Our method also provides a way to study a cross phenotype (CP) association by using summary statistics from GWASs of multiple phenotypes.

Screening of mental health and substance users in frequent users of a general Swiss emergency department.

BACKGROUND: The objectives of this study were to determine the proportions of psychiatric and substance use disorders suffered by emergency departments' (EDs') frequent users compared to the mainstream ED population, to evaluate how effectively these disorders were diagnosed in both groups of patients by ED physicians, and to determine if these disorders were predictive of a frequent use of ED services. METHODS: This study is a cross-sectional study with concurrent and retrospective data collection. Between November 2009 and June 2010, patients' mental health and substance use disorders were identified prospectively in face-to-face research interviews using a screening questionnaire (i.e. researcher screening). These data were compared to the data obtained from a retrospective medical chart review performed in August 2011, searching for mental health and substance use disorders diagnosed by ED physicians and recorded in the patients' ED medical files (i.e. ED physician diagnosis). The sample consisted of 399 eligible adult patients (≥18 years old) admitted to the urban, general ED of a University Hospital. Among them, 389 patients completed the researcher screening. Two hundred and twenty frequent users defined by >4 ED visits in the previous twelve months were included and compared to 169 patients with ≤4 ED visits in the same period (control group). RESULTS: Researcher screening showed that ED frequent users were more likely than members of the control group to have an anxiety, depressive disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), or suffer from alcohol, illicit drug abuse/addiction. Reviewing the ED physician diagnosis, we found that the proportions of mental health and substance use disorders diagnosed by ED physicians were low both among ED frequent users and in the control group. Using multiple logistic regression analyses to predict frequent ED use, we found that ED patients who screened positive for psychiatric disorders only and those who screened positive for both psychiatric and substance use disorders were more likely to be ED frequent users compared to ED patients with no disorder. CONCLUSIONS: This study found high proportions of screened mental health and/or substance use disorders in ED frequent users, but it showed low rates of detection of such disorders in day-to-day ED activities which can be a cause for concern. Active screening for these disorders in this population, followed by an intervention and/or a referral for treatment by a case-management team may constitute a relevant intervention for integration into a general ED setting.

Variation in treatment strategies of Swiss general practitioners for subclinical hypothyroidism in older adults.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: As the best management of subclinical hypothyroidism is controversial, we aimed to assess variations in treatment strategies depending on different Swiss regions, physician and patient characteristics. METHODS: We performed a case-based survey among general practitioners (GPs) in different Swiss regions, which consisted of eight hypothetical cases presenting a female patient with subclinical hypothyroidism and nonspecific complaints differing by age, vitality status and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) concentration. RESULTS: A total of 262 GPs participated in the survey. There was considerable variation in the levothyroxine starting dose chosen by GPs, ranging from 25 µg to 100 µg. Across the Swiss regions, GPs in the Bern region were significantly more inclined to treat, with a higher probability of initiating treatment (60%, p = 0.01) and higher mean starting doses (45 µg, p <0.01) compared with the French-speaking region (44%, 36 µg); the Zurich region had intermediate values (52%, 39 µg). We found no association between treatment rate and other physician characteristics. GPs were more reluctant to initiate treatment in 85-year-old than in 70-year-old women (odds ratio [OR] 0.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.63-0.94), and more likely to treat women with a TSH of 15 mU/l than those with a TSH of 6mU/l (OR 8.71, 95% CI 6.21-12.20). CONCLUSIONS: There are strong variations in treatment strategies for elderly patients with subclinical hypothyroidism across different Swiss regions, including use of higher starting doses than the recommended 25 µg in the Swiss guidelines, which recommend a starting dose of 25 µg. These variations likely reflect the current uncertainty about the benefits of treatment, which arise from the current lack of evidence from adequately powered clinical trials.

Statistics of Manufacturers for the year 1905 - Canadian Niagara Power Company

A census form for the year 1905. The form was approved by the Governor General in Council January 22, 1906.

A domain-general perspective on medial frontal brain activity during performance monitoring

Activity of the medial frontal cortex (MFC) has been implicated in attention regulation and performance monitoring. The MFC is thought to generate several event-related potential (ERPs) components, known as medial frontal negativities (MFNs), that are elicited when a behavioural response becomes difficult to control (e.g., following an error or shifting from a frequently executed response). The functional significance of MFNs has traditionally been interpreted in the context of the paradigm used to elicit a specific response, such as errors. In a series of studies, we consider the functional similarity of multiple MFC brain responses by designing novel performance monitoring tasks and exploiting advanced methods for electroencephalography (EEG) signal processing and robust estimation statistics for hypothesis testing. In study 1, we designed a response cueing task and used Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to show that the latent factors describing a MFN to stimuli that cued the potential need to inhibit a response on upcoming trials also accounted for medial frontal brain responses that occurred when individuals made a mistake or inhibited an incorrect response. It was also found that increases in theta occurred to each of these task events, and that the effects were evident at the group level and in single cases. In study 2, we replicated our method of classifying MFC activity to cues in our response task and showed again, using additional tasks, that error commission, response inhibition, and, to a lesser extent, the processing of performance feedback all elicited similar changes across MFNs and theta power. In the final study, we converted our response cueing paradigm into a saccade cueing task in order to examine the oscillatory dynamics of response preparation. We found that, compared to easy pro-saccades, successfully preparing a difficult anti-saccadic response was characterized by an increase in MFC theta and the suppression of posterior alpha power prior to executing the eye movement. These findings align with a large body of literature on performance monitoring and ERPs, and indicate that MFNs, along with their signature in theta power, reflects the general process of controlling attention and adapting behaviour without the need to induce error commission, the inhibition of responses, or the presentation of negative feedback.

Monte Carlo Tests with Nuisance Parameters: A General Approach to Finite-Sample Inference and Nonstandard Asymptotics

The technique of Monte Carlo (MC) tests [Dwass (1957), Barnard (1963)] provides an attractive method of building exact tests from statistics whose finite sample distribution is intractable but can be simulated (provided it does not involve nuisance parameters). We extend this method in two ways: first, by allowing for MC tests based on exchangeable possibly discrete test statistics; second, by generalizing the method to statistics whose null distributions involve nuisance parameters (maximized MC tests, MMC). Simplified asymptotically justified versions of the MMC method are also proposed and it is shown that they provide a simple way of improving standard asymptotics and dealing with nonstandard asymptotics (e.g., unit root asymptotics). Parametric bootstrap tests may be interpreted as a simplified version of the MMC method (without the general validity properties of the latter).

Concomitants of Order Statistics from Morgenstern Family

The study deals with the distribution theory and applications of concomitants from the Morgenstern family of bivariate distributions.The Morgenstern system of distributions include all cumulative distributions of the form FX,Y(X,Y)=FX(X) FY(Y)[1+α(1-FX(X))(1-FY(Y))], -1≤α≤1.The system provides a very general expression of a bivariate distributions from which members can be derived by substituting expressions of any desired set of marginal distributions.It is a brief description of the basic distribution theory and a quick review of the existing literature.The Morgenstern family considered in the present study provides a very general expression of a bivariate distribution from which several members can be derived by substituting expressions of any desired set of marginal distributions.Order statistics play a very important role in statistical theory and practice and accordingly a remarkably large body of literature has been devoted to its study.It helps to develop special methods of statistical inference,which are valid with respect to a broad class of distributions.The present study deals with the general distribution theory of Mk, [r: m] and Mk, [r: m] from the Morgenstern family of distributions and discuss some applications in inference, estimation of the parameter of the marginal variable Y in the Morgestern type uniform distributions.

Aitchison Geometry for Probability and Likelihood as a new approach to mathematical statistics

The Aitchison vector space structure for the simplex is generalized to a Hilbert space structure A2(P) for distributions and likelihoods on arbitrary spaces. Central notations of statistics, such as Information or Likelihood, can be identified in the algebraical structure of A2(P) and their corresponding notions in compositional data analysis, such as Aitchison distance or centered log ratio transform. In this way very elaborated aspects of mathematical statistics can be understood easily in the light of a simple vector space structure and of compositional data analysis. E.g. combination of statistical information such as Bayesian updating, combination of likelihood and robust M-estimation functions are simple additions/ perturbations in A2(Pprior). Weighting observations corresponds to a weighted addition of the corresponding evidence. Likelihood based statistics for general exponential families turns out to have a particularly easy interpretation in terms of A2(P). Regular exponential families form finite dimensional linear subspaces of A2(P) and they correspond to finite dimensional subspaces formed by their posterior in the dual information space A2(Pprior). The Aitchison norm can identified with mean Fisher information. The closing constant itself is identified with a generalization of the cummulant function and shown to be Kullback Leiblers directed information. Fisher information is the local geometry of the manifold induced by the A2(P) derivative of the Kullback Leibler information and the space A2(P) can therefore be seen as the tangential geometry of statistical inference at the distribution P. The discussion of A2(P) valued random variables, such as estimation functions or likelihoods, give a further interpretation of Fisher information as the expected squared norm of evidence and a scale free understanding of unbiased reasoning

Dice and data : a comic about statistics with a 95 percent chance of being one. 'Dados y datos : cómic hacia la estadística con probabilidad 0,95 de serlo'.

Resumen tomado parcialmente de la propia publicación

Spatial variability of flow statistics within regular building arrays

Turbulence statistics obtained by direct numerical simulations are analysed to investigate spatial heterogeneity within regular arrays of building-like cubical obstacles. Two different array layouts are studied, staggered and square, both at a packing density of λp=0.25 . The flow statistics analysed are mean streamwise velocity ( u− ), shear stress ( u′w′−−−− ), turbulent kinetic energy (k) and dispersive stress fraction ( u˜w˜ ). The spatial flow patterns and spatial distribution of these statistics in the two arrays are found to be very different. Local regions of high spatial variability are identified. The overall spatial variances of the statistics are shown to be generally very significant in comparison with their spatial averages within the arrays. Above the arrays the spatial variances as well as dispersive stresses decay rapidly to zero. The heterogeneity is explored further by separately considering six different flow regimes identified within the arrays, described here as: channelling region, constricted region, intersection region, building wake region, canyon region and front-recirculation region. It is found that the flow in the first three regions is relatively homogeneous, but that spatial variances in the latter three regions are large, especially in the building wake and canyon regions. The implication is that, in general, the flow immediately behind (and, to a lesser extent, in front of) a building is much more heterogeneous than elsewhere, even in the relatively dense arrays considered here. Most of the dispersive stress is concentrated in these regions. Considering the experimental difficulties of obtaining enough point measurements to form a representative spatial average, the error incurred by degrading the sampling resolution is investigated. It is found that a good estimate for both area and line averages can be obtained using a relatively small number of strategically located sampling points.

Some general comparative points on Chao’s and Zelterman’s estimators of population size

Two simple and frequently used capture–recapture estimates of the population size are compared: Chao's lower-bound estimate and Zelterman's estimate allowing for contaminated distributions. In the Poisson case it is shown that if there are only counts of ones and twos, the estimator of Zelterman is always bounded above by Chao's estimator. If counts larger than two exist, the estimator of Zelterman is becoming larger than that of Chao's, if only the ratio of the frequencies of counts of twos and ones is small enough. A similar analysis is provided for the binomial case. For a two-component mixture of Poisson distributions the asymptotic bias of both estimators is derived and it is shown that the Zelterman estimator can experience large overestimation bias. A modified Zelterman estimator is suggested and also the bias-corrected version of Chao's estimator is considered. All four estimators are compared in a simulation study.

Some general comparative points on Chao's and Zelterman's estimators of the population size

Two simple and frequently used capture–recapture estimates of the population size are compared: Chao's lower-bound estimate and Zelterman's estimate allowing for contaminated distributions. In the Poisson case it is shown that if there are only counts of ones and twos, the estimator of Zelterman is always bounded above by Chao's estimator. If counts larger than two exist, the estimator of Zelterman is becoming larger than that of Chao's, if only the ratio of the frequencies of counts of twos and ones is small enough. A similar analysis is provided for the binomial case. For a two-component mixture of Poisson distributions the asymptotic bias of both estimators is derived and it is shown that the Zelterman estimator can experience large overestimation bias. A modified Zelterman estimator is suggested and also the bias-corrected version of Chao's estimator is considered. All four estimators are compared in a simulation study.