Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows

Previous attempts to apply statistical models, which correlate nutrient intake with methane production, have been of limited. value where predictions are obtained for nutrient intakes and diet types outside those. used in model construction. Dynamic mechanistic models have proved more suitable for extrapolation, but they remain computationally expensive and are not applied easily in practical situations. The first objective of this research focused on employing conventional techniques to generate statistical models of methane production appropriate to United Kingdom dairy systems. The second objective was to evaluate these models and a model published previously using both United Kingdom and North American data sets. Thirdly, nonlinear models were considered as alternatives to the conventional linear regressions. The United Kingdom calorimetry data used to construct the linear models also were used to develop the three. nonlinear alternatives that were ball of modified Mitscherlich (monomolecular) form. Of the linear models tested,, an equation from the literature proved most reliable across the full range of evaluation data (root mean square prediction error = 21.3%). However, the Mitscherlich models demonstrated the greatest degree of adaptability across diet types and intake level. The most successful model for simulating the independent data was a modified Mitscherlich equation with the steepness parameter set to represent dietary starch-to-ADF ratio (root mean square prediction error = 20.6%). However, when such data were unavailable, simpler Mitscherlich forms relating dry matter or metabolizable energy intake to methane production remained better alternatives relative to their linear counterparts.

Unravelling the conundrum of tannins in animal nutrition and health

This paper examines the nutritional and veterinary effects of tannins on ruminants and makes some comparisons with non-ruminants. Tannin chemistry per se is not covered and readers are referred to several excellent reviews instead: (a) Okuda T et al. Heterocycles 30:1195-1218 (1990); (b) Ferreira D and Slade D. Nat Prod Rep 19:517-541 (2002); (c) Yoshida T et al. In Studies in Natural Product Chemistry. Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, pp. 395-453 (2000); (d) Khanbabaee K and van Ree T. Nat Prod Rep 18:641-649 (2001); (e) Okuda et al. Phytochemistvy 55:513-529 (2000). The effects of tannins on rumen micro-organisms are also not reviewed, as these have been addressed by others: (a) McSweeney CS et al. Anim Feed Sci Technol 91:83-93 (2001); (b) Smith AH and Mackie RI. Appl Environ Microbiol 70:1104-1115 (2004). This paper deals first with the nutritional effects of tannins in animal feeds, their qualitative and quantitative diversity, and the implications of tannin-protein complexation. It then summarises the known physiological and harmful effects and discusses the equivocal evidence of the bioavailability of tannins. Issues concerning tannin metabolism and systemic effects are also considered. Opportunities are presented on how to treat feeds with high tannin contents, and some lesser-known but successful feeding strategies are highlighted. Recent research has explored the use of tannins for preventing animal deaths from bloat, for reducing intestinal parasites and for lowering gaseous ammonia and methane emissions. Finally, several tannin assays and a hypothesis are discussed that merit further investigation in order to assess their suitability for predicting animal responses. The aim is to provoke discussion and spur readers into new approaches. An attempt is made to synthesise the emerging information for relating tannin structures with their activities. Although many plants with high levels of tannins produce negative effects and require treatments, others are very useful animal feeds. Our ability to predict whether tannin-containing feeds confer positive or negative effects will depend on interdisciplinary research between animal nutritionists and plant chemists. The elucidation of tannin structure-activity relationships presents exciting opportunities for future feeding strategies that will benefit ruminants and the environment within the contexts of extensive, semi-intensive and some intensive agricultural systems. (c) 2006 Society of Chemical Industry

Unravelling the conundrum of tannins in animal nutrition and health

This paper examines the nutritional and veterinary effects of tannins on ruminants and makes some comparisons with non-ruminants. Tannin chemistry per se is not covered and readers are referred to several excellent reviews instead: (a) Okuda T et al. Heterocycles 30:1195-1218 (1990); (b) Ferreira D and Slade D. Nat Prod Rep 19:517-541 (2002); (c) Yoshida T et al. In Studies in Natural Product Chemistry. Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, pp. 395-453 (2000); (d) Khanbabaee K and van Ree T. Nat Prod Rep 18:641-649 (2001); (e) Okuda et al. Phytochemistvy 55:513-529 (2000). The effects of tannins on rumen micro-organisms are also not reviewed, as these have been addressed by others: (a) McSweeney CS et al. Anim Feed Sci Technol 91:83-93 (2001); (b) Smith AH and Mackie RI. Appl Environ Microbiol 70:1104-1115 (2004). This paper deals first with the nutritional effects of tannins in animal feeds, their qualitative and quantitative diversity, and the implications of tannin-protein complexation. It then summarises the known physiological and harmful effects and discusses the equivocal evidence of the bioavailability of tannins. Issues concerning tannin metabolism and systemic effects are also considered. Opportunities are presented on how to treat feeds with high tannin contents, and some lesser-known but successful feeding strategies are highlighted. Recent research has explored the use of tannins for preventing animal deaths from bloat, for reducing intestinal parasites and for lowering gaseous ammonia and methane emissions. Finally, several tannin assays and a hypothesis are discussed that merit further investigation in order to assess their suitability for predicting animal responses. The aim is to provoke discussion and spur readers into new approaches. An attempt is made to synthesise the emerging information for relating tannin structures with their activities. Although many plants with high levels of tannins produce negative effects and require treatments, others are very useful animal feeds. Our ability to predict whether tannin-containing feeds confer positive or negative effects will depend on interdisciplinary research between animal nutritionists and plant chemists. The elucidation of tannin structure-activity relationships presents exciting opportunities for future feeding strategies that will benefit ruminants and the environment within the contexts of extensive, semi-intensive and some intensive agricultural systems. (c) 2006 Society of Chemical Industry

Direct estimates of emissions from the megacity of Lagos

We report here top-down emissions estimates for an African megacity. A boundary layer circumnavigation of Lagos, Nigeria was completed using the FAAM BAe146 aircraft as part of the AMMA project. These observations together with an inferred boundary layer height allow the flux of pollutants to be calculated. Extrapolation gives annual emissions for CO, NOx, and VOCs of 1.44 Tg yr(-1), 0.03 Tg yr(-1) and 0.37 Tg yr(-1) respectively with uncertainties of (+250)/(-60%). These inferred emissions are consistent with bottom-up estimates for other developing megacities and are attributed to the evaporation of fuels, mobile combustion and natural gas emissions.

Mixed ligand binuclear copper(I) complexes containing (Cu2N8)-N-I chromophores. Observation of emissions from MLCT excited states involving two different ligands

Using the 1:2 condensate (L) of diethylenetriamine and benzaldehyde as the main ligand, binuclear copper(l) complexes [Cu2L2(4,4'-bipyridine)](CIO4)(2).0.5H(2)O (1a) and [Cu2L2(1,2-bis(4-pyridyl)ethane)](CIO4)(2) (1b) are synthesised. The two metal ions in la are bridged by 4,4'-bipyridine and those in 1b by 1,2-bis(4-pyridyl)ethane, From the X-ray crystal structure of la, each metal ion is found to be bound to three N atoms of L and one of the two N atoms of the bridging ligand in a distorted tetrahedral fashion. The Cu(I)-N bond lengths in la lie in the range of 1.998(5)-2.229(6) Angstrom. Electrochemical studies in dichloromethane (DCM) show that the (Cu2N8)-N-I moieties in la and 1b are composed of two essentially non-interacting (CuN4)-N-I cores with Cu-II/I potential of 0.44 V vs. SCE. While la displays metal induced quenching of the inherent emission of 4,4'-bipyridine in DCM solution, 1b exhibits two weak emission bands in DCM solution at 425 and 477 nm (total quantum yield = 3.59 x 10(-5)) originating from MLCT excited states. With the help of Extended Huckel calculations it is established that the higher energy emission in 1b is from Cu(I) --> bridging-ligand charge transfer excited state and the lower energy one in 1b from Cu(I) --> L charge transfer excited state.

Hitting emissions targets with (statistical) confidence in multi-instrument Emissions Trading Schemes

A means of assessing, monitoring and controlling aggregate emissions from multi-instrument Emissions Trading Schemes is proposed. The approach allows contributions from different instruments with different forms of emissions targets to be integrated. Where Emissions Trading Schemes are helping meet specific national targets, the approach allows the entry requirements of new participants to be calculated and set at a level that will achieve these targets. The approach is multi-levelled, and may be extended downwards to support pooling of participants within instruments, or upwards to embed Emissions Trading Schemes within a wider suite of policies and measures with hard and soft targets. Aggregate emissions from each instrument are treated stochastically. Emissions from the scheme as a whole are then the joint probability distribution formed by integrating the emissions from its instruments. Because a Bayesian approach is adopted, qualitative and semi-qualitative data from expert opinion can be used where quantitative data is not currently available, or is incomplete. This approach helps government retain sufficient control over emissions trading scheme targets to allow them to meet their emissions reduction obligations, while minimising the need for retrospectively adjusting existing participants’ conditions of entry. This maintains participant confidence, while providing the necessary policy levers for good governance.

The use of gaseous ozone and gas packaging to control populations of Salmonella infantis and Pseudomonas aeruginosa on the skin of chicken portions

Chilled breasts of chicken were inoculated with Salmonella infantis or Pseudomonas aeruginosa and then given one of the following treatments: (i) exposure to gaseous ozone (>2000 ppm for up to 30 min); (ii) storage under 70% CO2:30% N-2; and (iii) exposure to gaseous ozone (>2000 ppm for 15 min) followed by storage under 70% CO2:30% N-2; all storage at 7degreesC. Gaseous ozone reduced the counts of samnonellae by 97(Y,, and pseudomonads by 95%, but indigenous coliforms were unaffected. Under the modified atmosphere, the cell count of S. infantis was reduced by 72% following initial exposure and then stabilised, coliforms grew, but Ps. aeruginosa behaved like S. infantis-initial reduction (58%) followed by stability. Exposure to gaseous ozone followed by gas packaging allowed survival of S. infantis, Ps. aeruginosa and coliforms over 9 days at 7degreesC, but there was no evidence of any sensory deterioration. It is proposed that the latter treatment could, in a modified form perhaps, be used to reduce the contamination of chicken carcasses with salmonellae and improve their shelf-life. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The full-spectrum correlated k method for longwave atmospheric radiative transfer: treatment of gaseous overlap

The correlated k-distribution (CKD) method is widely used in the radiative transfer schemes of atmospheric models, and involves dividing the spectrum into a number of bands and then reordering the gaseous absorption coefficients within each one. The fluxes and heating rates for each band may then be computed by discretizing the reordered spectrum into of order 10 quadrature points per major gas, and performing a pseudo-monochromatic radiation calculation for each point. In this paper it is first argued that for clear-sky longwave calculations, sufficient accuracy for most applications can be achieved without the need for bands: reordering may be performed on the entire longwave spectrum. The resulting full-spectrum correlated k (FSCK) method requires significantly fewer pseudo-monochromatic calculations than standard CKD to achieve a given accuracy. The concept is first demonstrated by comparing with line-by-line calculations for an atmosphere containing only water vapor, in which it is shown that the accuracy of heating-rate calculations improves approximately in proportion to the square of the number of quadrature points. For more than around 20 points, the root-mean-squared error flattens out at around 0.015 K d−1 due to the imperfect rank correlation of absorption spectra at different pressures in the profile. The spectral overlap of m different gases is treated by considering an m-dimensional hypercube where each axis corresponds to the reordered spectrum of one of the gases. This hypercube is then divided up into a number of volumes, each approximated by a single quadrature point, such that the total number of quadrature points is slightly fewer than the sum of the number that would be required to treat each of the gases separately. The gaseous absorptions for each quadrature point are optimized such they minimize a cost function expressing the deviation of the heating rates and fluxes calculated by the FSCK method from line-by-line calculations for a number of training profiles. This approach is validated for atmospheres containing water vapor, carbon dioxide and ozone, in which it is found that in the troposphere and most of the stratosphere, heating-rate errors of less than 0.2 K d−1 can be achieved using a total of 23 quadrature points, decreasing to less than 0.1 K d−1 for 32 quadrature points. It would be relatively straightforward to extend the method to include other gases.

Reactions of NO3 with the man-made emissions 2-methylpent-2-ene, (Z)-3-methylpent-2-ene, ethyl vinyl ether, and the stress-induced plant emission ethyl vinyl ketone

Rate coefficients for reactions of nitrate radicals (NO3) with the anthropogenic emissions 2-methylpent-2-ene, (Z)-3-methylpent-2-ene.. ethyl vinyl ether, and the stress-induced plant emission ethyl vinyl ketone (pent-1-en-3-one) were determined to be (9.3 +/- 1.1) x 10(-12), (9.3 +/- 3.2) x 10(-12), (1.7 +/- 1.3) x 10(-12) and (9.4 + 2.7) x 10(-17) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). We performed kinetic experiments at room temperature and atmospheric pressure using a relative-rate technique with GC-FID analysis. Experiments with ethyl vinyl ether required a modification of our established procedure that might introduce additional uncertainties, and the errors suggested reflect these difficulties. Rate coefficients are discussed in terms of electronic and steric influences. Atmospheric lifetimes with respect to important oxidants in the troposphere were calculated. NO3-initiated oxidation is found to be the strongly dominating degradation route for 2-methylpent-2-ene, (Z)-3-methylpent-2-ene and ethyl vinyl ether. Atmospheric concentrations of the alkenes and their relative contribution to the total NMHC emissions from trucks can be expected to increase if plans for the introduction of particle filters for diesel engines are implemented on a global scale. Thus more kinetic data are required to better evaluate the impact of these emissions.

The impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH: results from QUANTIFY

To estimate the impact of emissions by road, aircraft and ship traffic on ozone and OH in the present-day atmosphere six different atmospheric chemistry models have been used. Based on newly developed global emission inventories for road, ship and aircraft emission data sets each model performed sensitivity simulations reducing the emissions of each transport sector by 5%. The model results indicate that on global annual average lower tropospheric ozone responds most sensitive to ship emissions (50.6%±10.9% of the total traffic induced perturbation), followed by road (36.7%±9.3%) and aircraft exhausts (12.7%±2.9%), respectively. In the northern upper troposphere between 200–300 hPa at 30–60° N the maximum impact from road and ship are 93% and 73% of the maximum effect of aircraft, respectively. The latter is 0.185 ppbv for ozone (for the 5% case) or 3.69 ppbv when scaling to 100%. On the global average the impact of road even dominates in the UTLS-region. The sensitivity of ozone formation per NOx molecule emitted is highest for aircraft exhausts. The local maximum effect of the summed traffic emissions on the ozone column predicted by the models is 0.2 DU and occurs over the northern subtropical Atlantic extending to central Europe. Below 800 hPa both ozone and OH respond most sensitively to ship emissions in the marine lower troposphere over the Atlantic. Based on the 5% perturbation the effect on ozone can exceed 0.6% close to the marine surface (global zonal mean) which is 80% of the total traffic induced ozone perturbation. In the southern hemisphere ship emissions contribute relatively strongly to the total ozone perturbation by 60%–80% throughout the year. Methane lifetime changes against OH are affected strongest by ship emissions up to 0.21 (± 0.05)%, followed by road (0.08 (±0.01)%) and air traffic (0.05 (± 0.02)%). Based on the full scale ozone and methane perturbations positive radiative forcings were calculated for road emissions (7.3±6.2 mWm−2) and for aviation (2.9±2.3 mWm−2). Ship induced methane lifetime changes dominate over the ozone forcing and therefore lead to a net negative forcing (−25.5±13.2 mWm−2).

Night-time tropospheric chemistry of the unsaturated alcohols (Z)-pent-2-en-1-ol and pent-1-en-3-ol: Kinetic studies of reactions of NO3 and N2O5 with stress-induced plant emissions

The night-time tropospheric chemistry of two stress-induced volatile organic compounds (VOCs), (Z)-pent-2-en-1-ol and pent-1-en-3-ol, has been studied at room temperature. Rate coefficients for reactions of the nitrate radical (NO3) with these pentenols were measured using the discharge-flow technique. Because of the relatively low volatility of these compounds, we employed off-axis continuous-wave cavity-enhanced absorption spectroscopy for detection of NO3 in order to be able to work in pseudo first-order conditions with the pentenols in large excess over NO3. The rate coefficients were determined to be (1.53 +/- 0.23) x 10(-13) and (1.39 +/- 0.19) x 10(-14) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) for reactions of NO3 with (Z)-pent-2-en-1-ol and pent-1-en-3-ol. An attempt to study the kinetics of these reactions with a relative-rate technique, using N2O5 as source of NO3 resulted in significantly higher apparent rate coefficients. Performing relative-rate experiments in known excesses of NO2 allowed us to determine the rate coefficients for the N2O5 reactions to be (5.0 +/- 2.8) x 10(-19) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) for (Z)-pent-2-en-1-ol, and (9.1 +/- 5.8) x 10(-19) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) for pent-1-en-3-ol. We show that these relatively slow reactions can indeed interfere with rate determinations in conventional relative-rate experiments.

A potential lag between the open solar magnetic source flux and solar EUV and X-ray emissions as measured by the Earth's ionosphere during total solar eclipses

Measurements of the ionospheric E-region during total solar eclipses have been used to provide information about the evolution of the solar magnetic field and EUV and X-ray emissions from the solar corona and chromosphere. By measuring levels of ionisation during an eclipse and comparing these measurements with an estimate of the unperturbed ionisation levels (such as those made during a control day, where available) it is possible to estimate the percentage of ionising radiation being emitted by the solar corona and chromosphere. Previously unpublished data from the two eclipses presented here are particularly valuable as they provide information that supplements the data published to date. The eclipse of 23 October 1976 over Australia provides information in a data gap that would otherwise have spanned the years 1966 to 1991. The eclipse of 4 December 2002 over Southern Africa is important as it extends the published sequence of measurements. Comparing measurements from eclipses between 1932 and 2002 with the solar magnetic source flux reveals that changes in the solar EUV and X-ray flux lag the open source flux measurements by approximately 1.5 years. We suggest that this unexpected result comes about from changes to the relative size of the limb corona between eclipses, with the lag representing the time taken to populate the coronal field with plasma hot enough to emit the EUV and X-rays ionising our atmosphere.