Efficient incorporation of channel cross-section geometry uncertainty into regional and global scale flood inundation models

This paper investigates the challenge of representing structural differences in river channel cross-section geometry for regional to global scale river hydraulic models and the effect this can have on simulations of wave dynamics. Classically, channel geometry is defined using data, yet at larger scales the necessary information and model structures do not exist to take this approach. We therefore propose a fundamentally different approach where the structural uncertainty in channel geometry is represented using a simple parameterization, which could then be estimated through calibration or data assimilation. This paper first outlines the development of a computationally efficient numerical scheme to represent generalised channel shapes using a single parameter, which is then validated using a simple straight channel test case and shown to predict wetted perimeter to within 2% for the channels tested. An application to the River Severn, UK is also presented, along with an analysis of model sensitivity to channel shape, depth and friction. The channel shape parameter was shown to improve model simulations of river level, particularly for more physically plausible channel roughness and depth parameter ranges. Calibrating channel Manning’s coefficient in a rectangular channel provided similar water level simulation accuracy in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency to a model where friction and shape or depth were calibrated. However, the calibrated Manning coefficient in the rectangular channel model was ~2/3 greater than the likely physically realistic value for this reach and this erroneously slowed wave propagation times through the reach by several hours. Therefore, for large scale models applied in data sparse areas, calibrating channel depth and/or shape may be preferable to assuming a rectangular geometry and calibrating friction alone.

Independent uncertainty estimates for coefficient based sea surface temperature retrieval from the Along-Trck Scanning Radiometer instruments

We establish a methodology for calculating uncertainties in sea surface temperature estimates from coefficient based satellite retrievals. The uncertainty estimates are derived independently of in-situ data. This enables validation of both the retrieved SSTs and their uncertainty estimate using in-situ data records. The total uncertainty budget is comprised of a number of components, arising from uncorrelated (eg. noise), locally systematic (eg. atmospheric), large scale systematic and sampling effects (for gridded products). The importance of distinguishing these components arises in propagating uncertainty across spatio-temporal scales. We apply the method to SST data retrieved from the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) and validate the results for two different SST retrieval algorithms, both at a per pixel level and for gridded data. We find good agreement between our estimated uncertainties and validation data. This approach to calculating uncertainties in SST retrievals has a wider application to data from other instruments and retrieval of other geophysical variables.

High-precision measurements of the co-polar correlation coefficient: non-Gaussian errors and retrieval of the dispersion parameter µ in rainfall

The co-polar correlation coefficient (ρhv) has many applications, including hydrometeor classification, ground clutter and melting layer identification, interpretation of ice microphysics and the retrieval of rain drop size distributions (DSDs). However, we currently lack the quantitative error estimates that are necessary if these applications are to be fully exploited. Previous error estimates of ρhv rely on knowledge of the unknown "true" ρhv and implicitly assume a Gaussian probability distribution function of ρhv samples. We show that frequency distributions of ρhv estimates are in fact highly negatively skewed. A new variable: L = -log10(1 - ρhv) is defined, which does have Gaussian error statistics, and a standard deviation depending only on the number of independent radar pulses. This is verified using observations of spherical drizzle drops, allowing, for the first time, the construction of rigorous confidence intervals in estimates of ρhv. In addition, we demonstrate how the imperfect co-location of the horizontal and vertical polarisation sample volumes may be accounted for. The possibility of using L to estimate the dispersion parameter (µ) in the gamma drop size distribution is investigated. We find that including drop oscillations is essential for this application, otherwise there could be biases in retrieved µ of up to ~8. Preliminary results in rainfall are presented. In a convective rain case study, our estimates show µ to be substantially larger than 0 (an exponential DSD). In this particular rain event, rain rate would be overestimated by up to 50% if a simple exponential DSD is assumed.

Tidal friction in close-in satellites and exoplanets: The Darwin theory re-visited

This report is a review of Darwin`s classical theory of bodily tides in which we present the analytical expressions for the orbital and rotational evolution of the bodies and for the energy dissipation rates due to their tidal interaction. General formulas are given which do not depend on any assumption linking the tidal lags to the frequencies of the corresponding tidal waves (except that equal frequency harmonics are assumed to span equal lags). Emphasis is given to the cases of companions having reached one of the two possible final states: (1) the super-synchronous stationary rotation resulting from the vanishing of the average tidal torque; (2) capture into the 1:1 spin-orbit resonance (true synchronization). In these cases, the energy dissipation is controlled by the tidal harmonic with period equal to the orbital period (instead of the semi-diurnal tide) and the singularity due to the vanishing of the geometric phase lag does not exist. It is also shown that the true synchronization with non-zero eccentricity is only possible if an extra torque exists opposite to the tidal torque. The theory is developed assuming that this additional torque is produced by an equatorial permanent asymmetry in the companion. The results are model-dependent and the theory is developed only to the second degree in eccentricity and inclination (obliquity). It can easily be extended to higher orders, but formal accuracy will not be a real improvement as long as the physics of the processes leading to tidal lags is not better known.

Mean Motion in Stochastic Plasmas With a Space-Dependent Diffusion Coefficient

Radial transport in the tokamap, which has been proposed as a simple model for the motion in a stochastic plasma, is investigated. A theory for previous numerical findings is presented. The new results are stimulated by the fact that the radial diffusion coefficients is space-dependent. The space-dependence of the transport coefficient has several interesting effects which have not been elucidated so far. Among the new findings are the analytical predictions for the scaling of the mean radial displacement with time and the relation between the Fokker-Planck diffusion coefficient and the diffusion coefficient from the mean square displacement. The applicability to other systems is also discussed. (c) 2009 WILEY-VCH GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

A (semi-)parametric functional coefficient autoregressive conditional duration model

In this paper, we propose a class of ACD-type models that accommodates overdispersion, intermittent dynamics, multiple regimes, and sign and size asymmetries in financial durations. In particular, our functional coefficient autoregressive conditional duration (FC-ACD) model relies on a smooth-transition autoregressive specification. The motivation lies on the fact that the latter yields a universal approximation if one lets the number of regimes grows without bound. After establishing that the sufficient conditions for strict stationarity do not exclude explosive regimes, we address model identifiability as well as the existence, consistency, and asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator for the FC-ACD model with a fixed number of regimes. In addition, we also discuss how to consistently estimate using a sieve approach a semiparametric variant of the FC-ACD model that takes the number of regimes to infinity. An empirical illustration indicates that our functional coefficient model is flexible enough to model IBM price durations.

Avaliação do comportamento tribológico de compósitos poliéster/fibra de vidro utilizando resíduos de poliéster/fibra de vidro e carbonato de cálcio como carga

The use of composite materials and alternative is being increased every day, as it becomes more widespread awareness that the use of renewable and not harmful to the environment is part of a new environmentally friendly model. Since its waste (primarily fiberglass) can not be easily recycled by the difficulty that still exists in this process, since they have two phases mixed, a polymeric matrix thermoset difficult to recycle because it is infusible and phase of fiber reinforcements. Thermoset matrix composites like Polyester + fiberglass pose a threat due to excessive discharge. Aiming to minimize this problem, aimed to reuse the composite Polyester + fiber glass, through the wastes obtained by the grinding of knifes and balls. These residues were incorporated into the new composite Polyester/Fiberglass for hot compression mold and compared tribological to composites with filler CaCO3, generally used as filler, targeting a partial replacement of CaCO3 by such waste. The composites were characterized by thermal analysis (TGA, DSC and DMA), by the surface integrity (roughness determination, contact angle and surface energy), mechanical properties (hardness) and tribological tests (wear and coefficient of dynamic friction) in order to evaluate the effect of loads and characterize these materials for applications that can take, in the tribological point of view since waste Polyester + fiberglass has great potential for replacement of CaCO3

Determination of the oxygen and nitrogen interstitial diffusion coeficient in niobium by mechanical spectroscopy

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Study of interstitial oxygen mobility in RuSr2GdCu2O8 by internal friction

The discovery of the spatial uniform coexistence of superconductivity and ferromagnetism in ruthenocuprates, RuSr2GdCu2O8 (Ru-1212), has spurred an extraordinary development in the study of the competition between magnetism and superconductivity. However, several points of their preparation process and characterization that determine their superconductive behaviour are still obscure. The improvement of sample preparation conditions involves some thermal treatments in inert atmosphere. Anelastic spectroscopy measurements were made using an inverted torsion pendulum, operating with an oscillation frequency of 38 Hz, temperature in the 90 and 310 K range, heating rate of 1 K/min, and vacuum better than 10(-3) Pa. The results show anelastic relaxation peaks at 210 K related to the presence of interstitial oxygen atoms. The peaks decrease significantly with the oxygen loss caused by the heat treatments in vacuum, appearing again after the annealing of the sample in an oxygen atmosphere. These observed peaks are clearly related to the additional oxygen atoms, with activation energy 0.13 and 0.36 eV, and can be explained in terms by diffusional jumps of interstitial oxygen in the RuO2 planes. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Diffusion of Interstitial Elements in Ti Alloys used as Biomaterials

Titanium alloys are excellent implant materials for orthopedic applications due to their desirable properties, such as good corrosion resistance, low elasticity modulus, and excellent biocompatibility. The presence of interstitial elements (such as oxygen and nitrogen) causes strong changes in the material's mechanical properties, mainly in its elastic properties. Study of the interaction among interstitial elements present in metals began with Snoek's postulate, that a stress-induced ordering of interstitials gives rise to a peak in the mechanical relaxation (internal friction) spectra. In the mechanical relaxation spectra, each species of interstitial solute atom gives rise to a distinct Snoek's peak, whose temperature and position depend on the measurement frequency. This effect is very interesting because its peculiar parameters are directly related to the diffusion coefficient (D) for the interstitial solute. This paper presents a study of diffusion of heavy interstitial elements in Ti-35Nb-7Zr-5Ta alloys using mechanical spectroscopy. Pre-exponential factors and activation energies are calculated for oxygen and nitrogen in theses alloys.

Nitrogen diffusion in the Nb-1.0wt%Zr measured by mechanical spectroscopy

The scientific and technological development in the area of new materials contributed to several applications of niobium and its alloys in nuclear power plants as well as in aerospace, aeronautics, automobile and naval industries. This paper presents the interstitial diffusion coefficients of nitrogen in solid solution in the Nb-1.0wt%Zr alloy using internal friction measurements obtained by mechanical spectroscopy, which uses a torsion pendulum operating at an oscillation frequency between 1.0 Hz and 10.0 Hz. The temperature range varies from 300K to 700K, at a heating rate of 1 K/min and vacuum better than 2 x 10(-6) Torr. The results showed an increase of the interstitial diffusion coefficient of nitrogen that was correlated with configurational considerations for the octahedral interstitials.

Effects of the high temperature plasma immersion ion implantation (PIII) of nitrogen in AISI H13 steel

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)