The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Performance comparison of an active matrix flat panel imager, computed radiography system, and a screen-film system at four standard radiation qualities.

Four standard radiation qualities (from RQA 3 to RQA 9) were used to compare the imaging performance of a computed radiography (CR) system (general purpose and high resolution phosphor plates of a Kodak CR 9000 system), a selenium-based direct flat panel detector (Kodak Direct View DR 9000), and a conventional screen-film system (Kodak T-MAT L/RA film with a 3M Trimax Regular screen of speed 400) in conventional radiography. Reference exposure levels were chosen according to the manufacturer's recommendations to be representative of clinical practice (exposure index of 1700 for digital systems and a film optical density of 1.4). With the exception of the RQA 3 beam quality, the exposure levels needed to produce a mean digital signal of 1700 were higher than those needed to obtain a mean film optical density of 1.4. In spite of intense developments in the field of digital detectors, screen-film systems are still very efficient detectors for most of the beam qualities used in radiology. An important outcome of this study is the behavior of the detective quantum efficiency of the digital radiography (DR) system as a function of beam energy. The practice of users to increase beam energy when switching from a screen-film system to a CR system, in order to improve the compromise between patient dose and image quality, might not be appropriate when switching from screen-film to selenium-based DR systems.

Phylogenetic relationships among four species of the guarani group of Drosophila (Diptera, Drosophilidae) as inferred by molecular and morphological analyses

Traditionally, the Drosophila guarani species group has been divided into two subgroups: the guarani and the guaramunu subgroups. Two, out of the four species included in this research, are members of the guarani subgroup (D. ornatifrons Duda, 1927 and D. subbadia Paterson & Mainland, 1943) and two are included in the guaramunu subgroup (D. maculifrons Duda, 1927 and D. griseolineata Duda, 1927). However, some authors have suggested that D. maculifrons and D. griseolineata are much closer to some species of the Drosophila tripunctata group than to some of the species of the guarani group. To add new data to the matter under dispute, Polyacrylamide Gel Eletrophoresis (PAGE-SDS) was used for the analysis and comparison of protein composition and Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA (RAPD) analysis to find differences in genomic DNA, in addition to the analysis of quantitative morphological characters previously described. Analysis of PAGE-SDS results in a dendrogram that pointed out D. subbadia as being the most distant within the Drosophila guarani group. However, these results were not supported either by RAPD analysis or by the analysis of continuous morphological characters, which supplied the clustering of D. subbadia with D. ornatifrons. Although our data give strong support to the clustering of D. subbadia and D. ornatifrons, none of the dendrograms provided a clade comprising D. maculifrons and D. griseolineata. Thus, this research does not support the traditional subdivision of the D. guarani group into those two subgroups.

The Conversion of Four Lane Undivded Urban Roadways to Three Lane Facilities, 2007

In recent years, many traffic engineers have advocated converting four-lane undivided urban streets to threelane two-way left-turn facilities. A number of these conversions have been successfully implemented. Accident rates have decreased while corridor and intersection levels of service remained acceptable. This conversion concept is yet another viable alternative “tool” to place in our urban safety/congestion toolbox.

Four new species of Neotropical spittlebugs (Hemiptera, Cercopidae, Tomaspidinae)

The following new species of South American Cercopidae, are described: Ischnorhina quadrimelasma sp. nov. (Bolivia), Laccogrypota quadrilineata sp. nov. (Bolivia), (Neolaccogrypota youngi sp. nov. (Peru), and Neosphenorhina schombergi sp. nov. (Brazil).

Executive Order Number Four, October 26, 2007

Orders that State Agencies achieve and maintain a diverse workforce in state government.

Perfusion and diffusion MRI of glioblastoma progression in a four-year prospective temozolomide clinical trial.

PURPOSE: This study was performed to determine the impact of perfusion and diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) sequences on patients during treatment of newly diagnosed glioblastoma. Special emphasis has been given to these imaging technologies as tools to potentially anticipate disease progression, as progression-free survival is frequently used as a surrogate endpoint. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Forty-one patients from a phase II temolozomide clinical trial were included. During follow-up, images were integrated 21 to 28 days after radiochemotherapy and every 2 months thereafter. Assessment of scans included measurement of size of lesion on T1 contrast-enhanced, T2, diffusion, and perfusion images, as well as mass effect. Classical criteria on tumor size variation and clinical parameters were used to set disease progression date. RESULTS: A total of 311 MRI examinations were reviewed. At disease progression (32 patients), a multivariate Cox regression determined 2 significant survival parameters: T1 largest diameter (p < 0.02) and T2 size variation (p < 0.05), whereas perfusion and diffusion were not significant. CONCLUSION: Perfusion and diffusion techniques cannot be used to anticipate tumor progression. Decision making at disease progression is critical, and classical T1 and T2 imaging remain the gold standard. Specifically, a T1 contrast enhancement over 3 cm in largest diameter together with an increased T2 hypersignal is a marker of inferior prognosis.

I just ran four million regressions

In this paper I try to move away from the Extreme Bounds method ofidentifying ``robust'' empirical relations in the economic growth literature.Instead of analyzing the extreme bounds of the estimates of the coefficientof a particular variable, I analyze the entire distribution. My claimin this paper is that, if we do this, the picture emerging from theempirical growth literature is not the pessimistic ``Nothing is Robust''that we get with the extreme bound analysis. Instead, we find that asubstantial number of variables can be found to be strongly relatedto growth.

Sand flies (Diptera, Psychodidae, Phlebotominae) from Central Amazonia and four new records for the Amazonas state, Brazil

Sand flies from Central Amazonia and four new records for the Amazonas state, Brazil. A survey was conducted in May and June 2008 to study the fauna of insects in Central Amazonia, Brazil. As part of the survey, we report here that sixty species of phlebotomine were identified, totaling 13,712 specimens from 13 genera. The collection sites were located at the border between the states of Pará and Amazonas, comprising three municipalities from the Amazonas state (Borba, Maués, and Nhamundá). Malaise, CDC and Shannon traps were used to collect the insects. Most of the sand flies were collected by CDC traps (89.5%), while Malaise and Shannon traps collected 7% and 3.5%, respectively. The most abundant genera, representing 97.1% of the total sand flies identified were: Trichopygomyia Barretto, 1962 (47.6%), Psathyromyia Barretto, 1962 (17.9%), Psychodopygus Mangabeira, 1941 (17.5%) and Trichophoromyia Barretto, 1962 (14.3%). The genera with the largest number of species identified were: Psychodopygus (14), Psathyromyia (10), Evandromyia Mangabeira, 1941 (7), Trichophoromyia (5) and Trichopygomyia (5). The most abundant species was Trichopygomyia trichopyga (Floch & Abonnenc, 1945), which represented 29% of the total sand flies identified. Here we also report new records for four species in the Amazonas state: Ps. complexus (Mangabeira, 1941), Ps. llanosmartinsi Fraiha & Ward, 1980, Ty. pinna (Feliciangeli, Ramirez-Pérez & Ramirez, 1989), and Th. readyi (Ryan, 1986). The results of this study provide new, additional information on the distribution of sand flies in the Amazon and increase the number of species in the Amazonas state from 127 to 131.

Test of four colon cancer risk-scores in formalin fixed paraffin embedded microarray gene expression data.

BACKGROUND: Prognosis prediction for resected primary colon cancer is based on the T-stage Node Metastasis (TNM) staging system. We investigated if four well-documented gene expression risk scores can improve patient stratification. METHODS: Microarray-based versions of risk-scores were applied to a large independent cohort of 688 stage II/III tumors from the PETACC-3 trial. Prognostic value for relapse-free survival (RFS), survival after relapse (SAR), and overall survival (OS) was assessed by regression analysis. To assess improvement over a reference, prognostic model was assessed with the area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. All statistical tests were two-sided, except the AUC increase. RESULTS: All four risk scores (RSs) showed a statistically significant association (single-test, P < .0167) with OS or RFS in univariate models, but with HRs below 1.38 per interquartile range. Three scores were predictors of shorter RFS, one of shorter SAR. Each RS could only marginally improve an RFS or OS model with the known factors T-stage, N-stage, and microsatellite instability (MSI) status (AUC gains < 0.025 units). The pairwise interscore discordance was never high (maximal Spearman correlation = 0.563) A combined score showed a trend to higher prognostic value and higher AUC increase for OS (HR = 1.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.44 to 2.10, P < .001, AUC from 0.6918 to 0.7321) and RFS (HR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.33 to 1.84, P < .001, AUC from 0.6723 to 0.6945) than any single score. CONCLUSIONS: The four tested gene expression-based risk scores provide prognostic information but contribute only marginally to improving models based on established risk factors. A combination of the risk scores might provide more robust information. Predictors of RFS and SAR might need to be different.