Using climate extension to assist coastal decision-makers with climate adaptation

Coastal managers need accessible, trusted, tailored resources to help them interpret climate information, identify vulnerabilities, and apply climate information to decisions about adaptation on regional and local levels. For decades, climate scientists have studied the impacts that short term natural climate variability and long term climate change will have on coastal systems. For example, recent estimates based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warming scenarios suggest that global sea levels may rise 0.5 to 1.4 meters above 1990 levels by 2100 (Rahmstorf 2007; Grinsted, Moore, and Jevrejeva 2009). Many low-lying coastal ecosystems and communities will experience more frequent salt water intrusion events, more frequent coastal flooding, and accelerated erosion rates before they experience significant inundation. These changes will affect the ways coastal managers make decisions, such as timing surface and groundwater withdrawals, replacing infrastructure, and planning for changing land use on local and regional levels. Despite the advantages, managers’ use of scientific information about climate variability and change remains limited in environmental decision-making (Dow and Carbone 2007). Traditional methods scientists use to disseminate climate information, like peer-reviewed journal articles and presentations at conferences, are inappropriate to fill decision-makers’ needs for applying accessible, relevant climate information to decision-making. General guides that help managers scope out vulnerabilities and risks are becoming more common; for example, Snover et al. (2007) outlines a basic process for local and state governments to assess climate change vulnerability and preparedness. However, there are few tools available to support more specific decision-making needs. A recent survey of coastal managers in California suggests that boundary institutions can help to fill the gaps between climate science and coastal decision-making community (Tribbia and Moser 2008). The National Sea Grant College Program, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) university-based program for supporting research and outreach on coastal resource use and conservation, is one such institution working to bridge these gaps through outreach. Over 80% of Sea Grant’s 32 programs are addressing climate issues, and over 60% of programs increased their climate outreach programming between 2006 and 2008 (National Sea Grant Office 2008). One way that Sea Grant is working to assist coastal decision-makers with using climate information is by developing effective methods for coastal climate extension. The purpose of this paper is to discuss climate extension methodologies on regional scales, using the Carolinas Coastal Climate Outreach Initiative (CCCOI) as an example of Sea Grant’s growing capacities for climate outreach and extension. (PDF contains 3 pages)

A study of W boson properties with four-jet W^+W^- events at LEP

In this thesis I present a study of W pair production in e⁺e^- annihilation using fully hadronic W⁺W^- events. Data collected by the L3 detector at LEP in 1996-1998, at collision center-of-mass energies between 161 and 189 GeV, was used in my analysis.

Analysis of the total and differential W⁺W^- cross sections with the resulting sample of 1,932 W⁺W^- → qqqq event candidates allowed me to make precision measurements of a number of properties of the W boson. I combined my measurements with those using other W⁺W^- final states to obtain stringent constraints on the W boson's couplings to fermions, other gauge bosons, and scalar Higgs field by measuring the total e⁺e^- → W⁺W^- cross section and its energy dependence

σ(e⁺e^- → W⁺W^-) =

{2.68^+0.98_-0.67(stat.)± 0.14(syst.) pb, √s = 161.34 GeV

{12.04^+1.38_-1.29(stat.)± 0.23(syst.) pb, √s = 172.13 GeV

{16.45 ± 0.67(stat.) ± 0.26(syst.) pb, √s = 182.68 GeV

{16.28 ± 0.38(stat.) ± 0.26(syst.) pb, √s = 188.64 GeV

the fraction of W bosons decaying into hadrons

invisible non-SM width of the W boson

the mass of the W boson

the total width of the W boson

the anomalous triple gauge boson couplings of the W

Δg^Z₁ = 0.16^+0.13_-0.20(stat.) ± 0.11(syst.)

Δk_γ = 0.26^+0.24_-0.33(stat.) ± 0.16(syst.)

λ_γ = 0.18^+0.13_-0.20(stat.) ± 0.11(syst.)

No significant deviations from Standard Model predictions were found in any of the measurements.

The streaming of 1.3-2.3 MeV cosmic-ray protons during periods between prompt solar particle events

The anisotropy of 1.3 - 2.3 MeV protons in interplanetary space has been measured using the Caltech Electron/Isotope Spectrometer aboard IMP-7 for 317 6-hour periods from 72/273 to 74/2. Periods dominated by prompt solar particle events are not included. The convective and diffusive anisotropies are determined from the observed anisotropy using concurrent solar wind speed measurements and observed energy spectra. The diffusive flow of particles is found to be typically toward the sun, indicating a positive radial gradient in the particle density. This anisotropy is inconsistent with previously proposed sources of low-energy proton increases seen at 1 AU which involve continual solar acceleration.

The typical properties of this new component of low-energy cosmic rays have been determine d for this period which is near solar minimum. The particles have a median intensity of 0.06 protons/ cm^(2)-sec-sr-MeV and a mean spectral index of -3.15.The amplitude of the diffusive anisotropy is approximately proportional to the solar wind speed. The rate at which particles are diffusing toward the sun is larger than the rate at which the solar wind is convecting the particles away from the sun. The 20 to 1 proton to alpha ratio typical of this new component has been reported by Mewaldt, et al. (1975b).

A propagation model with κ_(rr) assumed independent of radius and energy is used to show that the anisotropy could be due to increases similar to those found by McDonald, et al. (1975) at ~3 AU. The interplanetary Fermi-acceleration model proposed by Fisk (1976) to explain the increases seen near 3 AU is not consistent with the ~12 per cent diffusive anisotropy found.

The dependence of the diffusive anisotropy on various parameters is shown. A strong dependence of the direction of the diffusive anisotropy on the concurrently measured magnetic field direction is found, indicating a κ_⊥ less than κ_∥ to be typical for this large data set.

Modelagem hidrológica da bacia hidrográfica do rio Bengalas, Nova Friburgo, RJ, utilizando o potencial de geotecnologias na definição de áreas de risco de inundação.

A presente pesquisa concentra-se no estudo hidrológico utilizando o potencial das geotecnologias na modelagem do escoamento na bacia do rio Bengalas, cujo rio principal de mesmo nome, corta o município de Nova Friburgo, RJ, no sentido Sul-Norte. Esse município, um dos mais importantes da região serrana, sofre frequentemente com inundações e deslizamentos, onde, dados históricos e acontecimentos recentes mostram que a ocupação inadequada de encostas e calhas dos rios são as áreas destacada e negativamente afetadas. A metodologia tem suporte no uso de um SIG, extraindo informações, que por sua vez, serão entrada de dados na fase de modelagem, e reforçando a apresentação dos resultados das simulações através de mapas. Ela está divida basicamente em três etapas: "SIG", "Modelagem" e "Suporte à Tomada de Decisão/Simulação". Esse primeiro estudo permitiu compor um banco de dados geográfico com as características fisiográficas da bacia; a seleção criteriosa de uma modelagem matemática e encadeamento de seus parâmetros com os componentes do ciclo hidrológico; realizar a calibração do modelo de transformação chuva-vazão, Soil Conservation Service (CN); e simular a passagem dos volumes gerados pela precipitação efetiva na calha do rio Bengalas, com o objetivo de identificar e analisar as áreas suscetíveis a inundações na porção central da cidade de Nova Friburgo. Modelagem dessa natureza vem sendo empregada, principalmente, no gerenciamento de recursos hídricos, onde a tomada de decisões embasada nos resultados de simulações computacionais, contribuem para evitar prejuízos materiais e financeiros, e ainda, perdas de vidas humanas em áreas de risco, neste caso, aquelas suscetíveis a inundações. Analisando os resultados encontrados temos que a área suscetível à inundação para uma chuva com tempo de recorrência de 50 anos, o mais crítico estudado, seja de aproximadamente 1,0 km, distribuídos nos seus 8,5km na região central de Nova Friburgo-RJ, sendo está, ora delimitada, prioritariamente edificada.

Águas pluviais para usos não potáveis em escolas municipais: estudo de caso na região da baixada de Jacarepaguá, RJ.

A captação de águas pluviais não constitui nova estratégia ou tecnologia. No entanto, recentemente tem sido proposta em regiões bem desenvolvidas ou em desenvolvimento (peri-urbanas) em resposta a grandes períodos de estiagens, aumento da demanda por água, maior conscientização pública das enchentes urbanas e sua gênese e, aumento do interesse em práticas de construções sustentáveis, que integram também o uso racional da água. As escolas constituem uma importante fundação da nação, e tem influência no desenvolvimento da sociedade e da sensibilização/ conscientização sobre as questões ambientais. Muitos dos usos da água nas escolas envolvem usos menos nobres da água. Neste contexto, nessa dissertação de mestrado além da análise de marcos legais nesse assunto, foi realizada pesquisa de opinião (entrevista e questionário) junto a atores que interferem no processo decisório da utilização das águas pluviais nas escolas para fins não potáveis. Foram observadas as condições físicas-construtivas das escolas do município do Rio de Janeiro, sobretudo na região da 7a. CRE, que abrange a região da Baixada de Jacarepaguá, área de expansão da cidade. Foi implementada uma unidade para coleta e caracterização da qualidade das águas pluviais, além da caracterização e estudo dos volumes de primeiro descarte (first flush). Os parâmetros de qualidade da água pH, T, OD, ORP, Tu, STD, Condutividade e Salinidade, foram observados com auxílio de sonda multiparâmetros e, através de análise laboratorial de acordo com o Standard Methods, os coliformes termotolerantes. No estudo de percepção foi verificada uma grande aceitação do aproveitamento de águas pluviais para fins não potáveis, embora diretores de escola tenham apresentado informações/percepção divergentes sobre consumo e contas de água das escolas, de sua coordenadoria. Na análise dos parâmetros de qualidade da água versus registros pluviométricos foi observada variabilidade nos eventos pluviométricos observados que limitaram a correlação entre os mesmos, e acabou limitando as conclusões dos estudos de volumes para primeira lavagem e descarte (first flush). Os resultados da pesquisa permitem recomendar a implementação de políticas públicas para aproveitamento de águas pluviais para fins não potáveis nas escolas, mas, com o devido apoio tecnológico. Recomenda-se o aperfeiçoamento e automatização do sistema de coleta de águas pluviais para os estudos de first-flush e otimização dos volumes de descarte.

Final Evaluation Memorandum: Strategies for Resolving Low Dissolved Oxygen and Methylmercury Events in Northern Suisun Marsh

The purpose of the project is to improve our understanding about best management practices that can be utilized on diked managed wetlands in Suisun Marsh for reducing the occurrence of low dissolved oxygen (DO) and high methylmercury (MeHg) events associated primarily with fall flood-up practices. Low DO events are of concern because they can lead to undue stress and even mortality of sensitive aquatic organisms. Elevated MeHg levels are of concern because MeHg is a neurotoxin that bio-magnifies up the food chain and can cause deleterious effects to higher trophic level consumers such as piscivorous fish, birds, and mammals (including humans). This study involved two years (2007-2008) of intensive field data collection at two managed wetland sites in northwest Suisun Marsh and their surrounding tidal sloughs, an area with prior documented low DO events. In addition, the study collected limited soils and water quality field data and mapped vegetation for three managed wetland sites in the central interior of Suisun Marsh, for the purpose of examining whether wetlands at other locations exhibit characteristics that could indicate potential for similar concerns. In Year 1 of the study, the objective was to identify the baseline conditions in the managed wetlands and determine which physical management conditions could be modified for Year 2 to reduce low DO and MeHg production issues most effectively. The objective of Year 2 was to evaluate the effectiveness of these modified management actions at reducing production of low DO and elevated MeHg conditions within the managed wetlands and to continue improving understanding of the underlying biogeochemical processes at play. This Final Evaluation Memorandum examined a total of 19 BMPs, 14 involving modified water management operations and the remaining five involving modified soil and vegetation management practices. Some of these BMPs were previously employed and others have not yet been tested. For each BMP this report assesses its efficacy in improving water quality conditions and potential conflicts with wetland management. It makes recommendations for further study (either feasibility assessments or field testing) and whether to consider for future use. Certain previously used BMPs were found to be important contributors to poor water quality conditions and their continued use is not recommended. Some BMPs that could improve water quality conditions appear difficult to implement in regards to compatibility with wetland management; these BMPs require further elaboration and feasibility assessment to determine whether they should be field tested. In practice for any given wetland, there is likely a combination of BMPs that would together have the greatest potential to address the low DO and high MeHg water quality concerns. Consequently, this report makes no sweeping recommendations applicable to large groups of wetlands but instead promotes a careful consideration of factors at each wetland or small groups of wetlands and from that assessment to apply the most effective suite of BMPs. This report also identifies a number of recommended future actions and studies. These recommendations are geared toward improving the process understanding of factors that promote low DO and high MeHg conditions, the extent of these problems in Suisun Marsh, the regulatory basis for the DO standards for a large estuarine marsh, the economics of BMPs, and alternative approaches to BMPs on diked managed wetlands that may address the water quality issues. The most important of these recommendations is that future BMP implementation should be carried out within the context of rigorous scientific evaluation so as to gain the maximum improvement in how to manage these water quality issues in the diked managed wetlands of Suisun Marsh.

Influence of ocean conditions on the timing of early life history events for blue rockfish (Sebastes mystinus) off California

Settled juvenile blue rockfish (Sebastes mystinus) were collected from two kelp beds approximately 335 km apart off Mendocino in northern California and Monterey in central California. A total of 112 rockfish were collected from both sites over 5 years (1993, 1994, 2001, 2002, and 2003). Total age, settlement date, age at settlement, and birth date were determined from otolith microstructure. Fish off Mendocino settled mostly in June and fish off Monterey settled mostly in May (average difference in settlement=23 days). Although the difference in the timing of settlement followed this same pattern for both areas over the five years, settlement occurred later in 2002 and 2003 than in the prior years of sampling. The difference in the timing of settlement was due primarily to differences in birth dates for the two areas. The time of settlement was positively related to upwelling and negatively related to sea level anomaly for most of the months before settlement. Knowledge of the timing of settlement has implications for design and placement of marine protected areas because protection of nursery grounds is frequently a major objective of these protected areas. The timing of settlement is also an important consideration in the planning of surveys of early recruits because mistimed surveys (caused by latitudinal differences in the timing of settlement) could produce biased estimates.

Planejamento ambiental da bacia hidrográfica do Rio Guapi-Macacu: estudo da paisagem e qualidade ecológica

Os estudos de relação entre a paisagem e a água doce vêm sendo aprofundados pela comunidade científica e pelos propositores de políticas públicas, principalmente, para atender às demandas sobre as maneiras que este sistema ambiental pode ser alterado e na identificação das implicações políticas e ecológicas destas mudanças. Quanto mais se torna intenso e diversificado o uso dos corpos hídricos e da paisagem em bacias hidrográficas maior é a necessidade de se definir formas de planejamento, gerenciamento e gestão ecológica desses ecossistemas. O completo entendimento do funcionamento e dos processos ecológicos que ocorrem em uma bacia hidrográfica exige conhecimento simultâneo de seus sistemas aquáticos e terrestres, da biodiversidade, da fisiografia, da geologia e de sua conservação, temporal e espacial. Este entendimento e conhecimento da área de interesse são vitais para proposições de instrumentos ambientais legais, como Unidades de Conservação (UCs). É muito importante que a fundamentação destas propostas tenha como eixo principal o funcionamento dos ecossistemas e das paisagens, de forma a garantir uma maior conectividade e integração entre água (doce, salobra e salgada) e terra, e seus múltiplos usos. A presente tese foi desenvolvida com base neste contexto, apresentando e aplicando metodologias integradoras, seja na ecologia de paisagem (EP), seja na relação entre os ambientes dulcícola e terrestre. O objetivo principal deste trabalho foi o desenvolvimento de processos para planejamento ambiental em BHs, através do diagnóstico, compreensão e análise do funcionamento e dinâmica da paisagem e de ecossistemas de rios e córregos, apoiados no uso de geotecnologias. De acordo com os resultados obtidos, a BHGM ocupa uma área de 1260,36 km e 204,69 km de perímetro. É uma bacia com forma mais alongada que circular (KC = 1,6144e IC =0,4747 km/km) que indica uma menor susceptibilidade a enchentes em condições normais de precipitação exceto em eventos de intensidades anômalas. O mapeamento base (2007) realizado indicou que a bacia possuía 34,86% de uso antrópico e 64,04 % de remanescente florestal. Os dados de fitofisionomia potencial indicaram predominância da classe Florestas Ombrófila Densa Submontana (40%) e de Terras Baixas (39%). Foram estabelecidas para bacia 269 unidades de paisagem (integração da geomorfologia, geologia, fitofisionomia e uso da terra e cobertura vegetal (2007)) que junto com os dados de métrica de paisagem constituíram a proposta integrativa da tese para ecologia de paisagem. Em relação à qualidade ambiental foram adotados o índice de avaliação visual (IAV), o índice multimétrico físico-químico bacteriológico e o índice biótico estendido (IBE). A comparação entre estes índices demonstrou a confirmação entre os seus resultados para a maioria dos pontos amostrados nas áreas de referência e de pelo menos dois índices para os pontos intermediários e impactados. Foram propostos também dois cenários para a bacia: um considerando as condicionantes e medidas compensatórias vinculadas à licença prévia do complexo petroquímico do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (COMPERJ); e outro, sem considerar estas condições. O primeiro indicou a realização da restauração ecológica, seguindo as diretrizes do mapa síntese, integrada para restauração da paisagem.

Dietary variations in three co-occurring rockfish species off the Pacific Northwest during anomalous oceanographic events in 1998 and 1999

Stomach samples from three rockfish species, yellowtail (Sebastes f lavidus), widow (S. entomelas), and canary (S. pinniger) rockfish, seasonally collected off the Pacific Northwest in 1998 and 1999, provided quantitative information on the food habits of these species during and after the 1997–98 El Niño event. Although euphausiids were the most common major prey of all three predators, gelatinous zooplankton and fishes were the most commonly consumed prey items during some seasonal quarters. The influence of the El Niño event was evident in the diets. Anomalous prey items, including the southern euphausiid species Nyctiphanes simplex and juveniles of Pacific whiting (Merluccius productus) frequently appeared in the diets in the spring and summer of 1998. The results of stomach contents analyses, based on 905 stomach samples from 49 trawl hauls during seven commercial fishing trips and from 56 stations during research surveys, were consistent with the timing of occurrence and the magnitude of change in biomass of some zooplankton species reported from zooplankton studies in the northern California Current during the 1997–98 El Niño. Our findings indicate that the observed variations of prey groups in some rockfish diets may be a function of prey variability related to climate and environment changes.

Evaluating methods for estimating rare events with zero-heavy data: a simulation model estimating sea turtle bycatch in the pelagic longline fishery

Estimating rare events from zero-heavy data (data with many zero values) is a common challenge in fisheries science and ecology. For example, loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) and leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) account for less than 1% of total catch in the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. Nevertheless, the Southeast Fisheries Science Center (SEFSC) of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) is charged with assessing the effect of this fishery on these federally protected species. Annual estimates of loggerhead and leatherback bycatch in a fishery can affect fishery management and species conservation decisions. However, current estimates have wide confidence intervals, and their accuracy is unknown. We evaluate 3 estimation methods, each at 2 spatiotemporal scales, in simulations of 5 spatial scenarios representing incidental capture of sea turtles by the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. The delta-log normal method of estimating bycatch for calendar quarter and fishing area strata was the least biased estimation method in the spatial scenarios believed to be most realistic. This result supports the current estimation procedure used by the SEFSC.