A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

Estimation of the extreme flash flood evolution in Barcelona county from 1351 to 2005

Every year, flash floods cause economic losses and major problems for undertaking daily activity in the Catalonia region (NE Spain). Sometimes catastrophic damage and casualties occur. When a long term analysis of floods is undertaken, a question arises regarding the changing role of the vulnerability and the hazard in risk evolution. This paper sets out to give some information to deal with this question, on the basis of analysis of all the floods that have occurred in Barcelona county (Catalonia) since the 14th century, as well as the flooded area, urban evolution, impacts and the weather conditions for any of most severe events. With this objective, the identification and classification of historical floods, and characterisation of flash-floods among these, have been undertaken. Besides this, the main meteorological factors associated with recent flash floods in this city and neighbouring regions are well-known. On the other hand, the identification of rainfall trends that could explain the historical evolution of flood hazard occurrence in this city has been analysed. Finally, identification of the influence of urban development on the vulnerability to floods has been carried out. Barcelona city has been selected thanks to its long continuous data series (daily rainfall data series, since 1854; one of the longest rainfall rate series of Europe, since 1921) and for the accurate historical archive information that is available (since the Roman Empire for the urban evolution). The evolution of flood occurrence shows the existence of oscillations in the earlier and later modern-age periods that can be attributed to climatic variability, evolution of the perception threshold and changes in vulnerability. A great increase of vulnerability can be assumed for the period 1850¿1900. The analysis of the time evolution for the Barcelona rainfall series (1854¿2000) shows that no trend exists, although, due to changes in urban planning, flash-floods impact has altered over this time. The number of catastrophic flash floods has diminished, although the extraordinary ones have increased.

A flood geodatabase and its climatological applications: the case of Catalonia for the last century

Floods are the natural hazards that produce the highest number of casualties and material damage in the Western Mediterranean. An improvement in flood risk assessment and study of a possible increase in flooding occurrence are therefore needed. To carry out these tasks it is important to have at our disposal extensive knowledge on historical floods and to find an efficient way to manage this geographical data. In this paper we present a complete flood database spanning the 20th century for the whole of Catalonia (NE Spain), which includes documentary information (affected areas and damage) and instrumental information (meteorological and hydrological records). This geodatabase, named Inungama, has been implemented on a GIS (Geographical Information System) in order to display all the information within a given geographical scenario, as well as to carry out an analysis thereof using queries, overlays and calculus. Following a description of the type and amount of information stored in the database and the structure of the information system, the first applications of Inungama are presented. The geographical distribution of floods shows the localities which are more likely to be flooded, confirming that the most affected municipalities are the most densely populated ones in coastal areas. Regarding the existence of an increase in flooding occurrence, a temporal analysis has been carried out, showing a steady increase over the last 30 years.

A reflection about the social and technological aspects in flood risk management - the case of the Italian Civil Protection

The right of a person to be protected from natural hazards is a characteristic of the social and economical development of the society. This paper is a contribution to the reflection about the role of Civil Protection organizations in a modern society. The paper is based in the inaugural conference made by the authors on the 9th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms. Two major issues are considered. The first one is sociological; the Civil Protection organizations and the responsible administration of the land use planning should be perceived as reliable as possible, in order to get consensus on the restrictions they pose, temporary or definitely, on the individual free use of the territory as well as in the entire warning system. The second one is technological: in order to be reliable they have to issue timely alert and warning to the population at large, but such alarms should be as "true" as possible. With this aim, the paper summarizes the historical evolution of the risk assessment, starting from the original concept of "hazard", introducing the concepts of "scenario of event" and "scenario of risk" and ending with a discussion about the uncertainties and limits of the most advanced and efficient tools to predict, to forecast and to observe the ground effects affecting people and their properties. The discussion is centred in the case of heavy rains and flood events in the North-West of Mediterranean Region.

Some reflections on Geobotany and Vegetation mapping

uivalent Spanish and Catalan terms.

Rebuild Iowa Office Quarterly Report, January 2010

The RIO’S January 2010 Quarterly Report details the economic recovery strategy in housing; business; workforce development; infrastructure investments; individual services and guidance; local economic recovery; smart growth; mitigation planning; floodplain and watershed management; floodplain mapping; quality of life; and emergency management.The report also includes an updated selection of charts showing the flow of federal and state disaster recovery funding to the state, counties, cities and individuals affected by the 2008 disasters.

Rebuild Iowa Office Quarterly Report, April 2010

The RIO’S April 2010 Quarterly Report details the economic recovery strategy in housing; business; workforce development; infrastructure investments; individual services and guidance; local economic recovery; smart growth; mitigation planning; floodplain and watershed management; floodplain mapping; quality of life; and emergency management.The report also includes an updated selection of charts showing the flow of federal and state disaster recovery funding to the state, counties, cities and individuals affected by the 2008 disasters.

Rebuild Iowa Office Quarterly Report, July 2010

The RIO’S July 2010 Quarterly Report details the economic recovery strategy in housing; business; workforce development; infrastructure investments; individual services and guidance; local economic recovery; smart growth; mitigation planning; floodplain and watershed management; floodplain mapping; quality of life; and emergency management.The report also includes an updated selection of charts showing the flow of federal and state disaster recovery funding to the state, counties, cities and individuals affected by the 2008 disasters.

Rebuild Iowa Office Quarterly Report, October 2010

The RIO’S October 2010 Quarterly Report details the economic recovery strategy in housing; business; workforce development; infrastructure investments; individual services and guidance; local economic recovery; smart growth; mitigation planning; floodplain and watershed management; floodplain mapping; quality of life; and emergency management.The report also includes an updated selection of charts showing the flow of federal and state disaster recovery funding to the state, counties, cities and individuals affected by the 2008 disasters.

The Floods of 1993, Iowa Flood Disaster Report, Part 1.

This report summarises the statewide efforts in dealing with the disaster of the floods of 1993.

The Floods of 1993, Iowa Flood Disaster Report, Part 2.

This report summarises the statewide efforts in dealing with the disaster of the floods of 1993.

Flood Plain Management & Hazard Mitigation Task Force Report, August 2008

The Flood Plain Management and Hazard Mitigation Task Force emphasizes the long-term benefits of mitigation and management to the entire state in preventing or reducing damages from floods and other hazards faced in Iowa. Investments in efforts to manage watershed areas and to mitigate any damages from floods or other disaster events benefit individuals, families, communities, agriculture, business and industry, and certainly public entities and infrastructure. The Task Force encourages the Rebuild Iowa Advisory Commission to balance the immediate needs for rebuilding to include the beginning of the investments required to effectively mitigate future damage and maintain effective policy in Iowa’s watersheds. The significance of the damage seen in Iowa from the tornadoes, storms, and floods of 2008 include the loss of eighteen Iowans in disaster-related events. This alone should inspire investment in mitigation efforts for all hazards. Much of the damage resulting from the disasters can be tied to floodplain management and hazard mitigation, pointing the way toward enhanced efforts and new initiatives to safeguard lives, property, and communities’ economic health. Even so, it must be recognized that the weather events throughout last winter and spring added impetus to the rains and storms that ultimately resulted in record flooding. Some perspective must be maintained as planning progresses and significant investments in mitigation are considered to meet a specific level of safety and protection from future threats. The Task Force identified a number of issues, and four were agreed-upon as those with the highest priority to be addressed by the Task Force through a set of recommendations.

Supplemental Information to the August 2008 Flood Plain Management & Hazard Mitigation Task Force Report, August 2008

The Flood Plain Management and Hazard Mitigation Task Force emphasizes the long-term benefits of mitigation and management to the entire state in preventing or reducing damages from floods and other hazards faced in Iowa. Investments in efforts to manage watershed areas and to mitigate any damages from floods or other disaster events benefit individuals, families, communities, agriculture, business and industry, and certainly public entities and infrastructure. The Task Force encourages the Rebuild Iowa Advisory Commission to balance the immediate needs for rebuilding to include the beginning of the investments required to effectively mitigate future damage and maintain effective policy in Iowa’s watersheds. The significance of the damage seen in Iowa from the tornadoes, storms, and floods of 2008 include the loss of eighteen Iowans in disaster-related events. This alone should inspire investment in mitigation efforts for all hazards. Much of the damage resulting from the disasters can be tied to floodplain management and hazard mitigation, pointing the way toward enhanced efforts and new initiatives to safeguard lives, property, and communities’ economic health. Even so, it must be recognized that the weather events throughout last winter and spring added impetus to the rains and storms that ultimately resulted in record flooding. Some perspective must be maintained as planning progresses and significant investments in mitigation are considered to meet a specific level of safety and protection from future threats. The Task Force identified a number of issues, and four were agreed-upon as those with the highest priority to be addressed by the Task Force through a set of recommendations. Supplemental Information to the August 2008

Mapping cell-matrix stresses during stretch reveals inelastic reorganization of the cytoskeleton.

The mechanical properties of the living cell are intimately related to cell signaling biology through cytoskeletal tension. The tension borne by the cytoskeleton (CSK) is in part generated internally by the actomyosin machinery and externally by stretch. Here we studied how cytoskeletal tension is modified during stretch and the tensional changes undergone by the sites of cell-matrix interaction. To this end we developed a novel technique to map cell-matrix stresses during application of stretch. We found that cell-matrix stresses increased with imposition of stretch but dropped below baseline levels on stretch release. Inhibition of the actomyosin machinery resulted in a larger relative increase in CSK tension with stretch and in a smaller drop in tension after stretch release. Cell-matrix stress maps showed that the loci of cell adhesion initially bearing greater stress also exhibited larger drops in traction forces after stretch removal. Our results suggest that stretch partially disrupts the actin-myosin apparatus and the cytoskeletal structures that support the largest CSK tension. These findings indicate that cells use the mechanical energy injected by stretch to rapidly reorganize their structure and redistribute tension.

Late Jurassic continental flood basalt doleritic dykes in northwestern Cuba: remnants of the Gulf of Mexico opening

Accreted terranes, comprising a wide variety of Late Jurassic and Early Cretaceous igneous and sedimentary rocks are an important feature of Cuban geology. Their characterization is helpful for understanding Caribbean paleogeography. The Guaniguanico terrane (western Cuba) is formed by upper Jurassic platform sediments intruded by microgranular dolerite dykes. The geochemical characteristics of the dolerite whole rock samples and their minerals (augitic clinopyroxene, labradorite and andesine) are consistent with a tholeiitic affinity. Major and trace element concentrations as well as Nd, Sr and Pb isotopes show that these rocks also have a continental affinity. Sample chemistry indicates that these lavas are similar to a low Ti-P2O5 (LTi) variety of continental flood basalts (CFB) similar to the dolerites of Ferrar (Tasmania). They derived from mixing of a lithospheric mantle Source and an asthenopheric component similar to E-MORB with minor markers of crustal contamination and sediment assimilation. However, the small quantity of Cuban magmatic rocks, similarly to Tasmania, Antarctica and Siberia differs from other volumetrically important CFB occurrences Such as Parana and Deccan. These dolerites are dated as 165-150 Ma and were emplaced during the separation of the Yucatan block from South America. They could in fact be part of the Yucatan-South America margin through which the intrusive system was emplaced and which was later accreted to the Cretaceous arc of central Cuba and to the Palaeogene arc of eastern Cuba. These samples could therefore reflect the pre-rift stage between North and South America and the opening of the gulf of Mexico.