Aplicación de la regresión logística en la predicción empírica de fenómenos complejos en obras subterráneas : squeezing y rotura de pilares de carbón

La heterogeneidad del medio geológico introduce en el proyecto de obra subterránea un alto grado de incertidumbre que debe ser debidamente gestionado a fin de reducir los riesgos asociados, que son fundamentalmente de tipo geotécnico. Entre los principales problemas a los que se enfrenta la Mecánica de Rocas moderna en el ámbito de la construcción subterránea, se encuentran la fluencia de roca en túneles (squeezing) y la rotura de pilares de carbón. Es ampliamente conocido que su aparición causa importantes perjuicios en el coste y la seguridad de los proyectos por lo que su estudio, ha estado tradicionalmente vinculado a la predicción de su ocurrencia. Entre las soluciones existentes para la determinación de estos problemas se encuentran las que se basan en métodos analíticos y numéricos. Estas metodologías son capaces de proporcionar un alto nivel de representatividad respecto del comportamiento geotécnico real, sin embargo, su utilización solo es posible cuando se dispone de una suficiente caracterización geotécnica y por tanto de una detallada definición de los parámetros que alimentan los complejos modelos constitutivos y criterios de rotura que los fenómenos estudiados requieren. Como es lógico, este nivel de definición solo es posible cuando se alcanzan etapas avanzadas de proyecto, incluso durante la propia construcción, a fin de calibrar adecuadamente los parámetros introducidos en los modelos, lo que supone una limitación de uso en etapas iniciales, cuando su predicción tiene verdadero sentido. Por su parte, los métodos empíricos permiten proporcionar soluciones a estos complejos problemas de un modo sencillo, con una baja parametrización y, dado su eminente enfoque observacional, de gran fiabilidad cuando se implementan sobre condiciones de contorno similares a las originales. La sencillez y escasez de los parámetros utilizados permiten a estas metodologías ser utilizadas desde las fases preliminares del proyecto, ya que estos constituyen en general, información habitual de fácil y económica adquisición. Este aspecto permite por tanto incorporar la predicción desde el principio del proceso de diseño, anticipando el riesgo en origen. En esta tesis doctoral, se presenta una nueva metodología empírica que sirve para proporcionar predicciones para la ocurrencia de squeezing y el fallo de pilares de carbón basada en una extensa recopilación de información de casos reales de túneles y minas en las que ambos fenómenos fueron evaluados. Esta información, recogida de referencias bibliográficas de prestigio, ha permitido recopilar una de las más extensas bases de datos existentes hasta la fecha relativa a estos fenómenos, lo que supone en sí mismo una importante contribución sobre el estado del arte. Con toda esta información, y con la ayuda de la teoría de clasificadores estadísticos, se ha implementado sobre las bases de datos un clasificador lineal de tipo regresión logística que permite hacer predicciones sobre la ocurrencia de ambos fenómenos en términos de probabilidad, y por tanto ponderar la incertidumbre asociada a la heterogeneidad incorporada por el medio geológico. Este aspecto del desarrollo es el verdadero valor añadido proporcionado por la tesis y la principal ventaja de la solución propuesta respecto de otras metodologías empíricas. Esta capacidad de ponderación probabilística permite al clasificador constituir una solución muy interesante como metodología para la evaluación de riesgo geotécnico y la toma de decisiones. De hecho, y como ejercicio de validación práctica, se ha implementado la solución desarrollada en un modelo coste-beneficio asociado a la optimización del diseño de pilares involucrados en una de mina “virtual” explotada por tajos largos. La capacidad del clasificador para cuantificar la probabilidad de fallo del diseño, junto con una adecuada cuantificación de las consecuencias de ese fallo, ha permitido definir una ley de riesgo que se ha incorporado al balance de costes y beneficios, que es capaz, a partir del redimensionamiento iterativo del sistema de pilares y de la propia configuración de la mina, maximizar el resultado económico del proyecto minero bajo unas condiciones de seguridad aceptables, fijadas de antemano. Geological media variability introduces to the subterranean project a high grade of uncertainty that should be properly managed with the aim to reduce the associated risks, which are mainly geotechnical. Among the major problems facing the modern Rock Mechanics in the field of underground construction are both, the rock squeezing while tunneling and the failure of coal pillars. Given their harmfulness to the cost and safety of the projects, their study has been traditionally linked to the determination of its occurrence. Among the existing solutions for the determination of these problems are those that are based on analytical and numerical methods. Those methodologies allow providing a high level of reliability of the geotechnical behavior, and therefore a detailed definition of the parameters that feed the complex constitutive models and failure criteria that require the studied phenomena. Obviously, this level of definition is only possible when advanced stages of the project are achieved and even during construction in order to properly calibrate the parameters entered in the models, which suppose a limited use in early stages, when the prediction has true sense. Meanwhile, empirical methods provide solutions to these complex problems in a simple way, with low parameterization and, given his observational scope, with highly reliability when implemented on similar conditions to the original context. The simplicity and scarcity of the parameters used allow these methodologies be applied in the early stages of the project, since that information should be commonly easy and cheaply to get. This aspect can therefore incorporate the prediction from the beginning of the design process, anticipating the risk beforehand. This thesis, based on the extensive data collection of case histories of tunnels and underground mines, presents a novel empirical approach used to provide predictions for the occurrence of both, squeezing and coal pillars failures. The information has been collected from prestigious references, providing one of the largest databases to date concerning phenomena, a fact which provides an important contribution to the state of the art. With all this information, and with the aid of the theory of statistical classifiers, it has been implemented on both databases, a type linear logistic regression classifier that allows predictions about the occurrence of these phenomena in terms of probability, and therefore weighting the uncertainty associated with geological variability. This aspect of the development is the real added value provided by the thesis and the main advantage of the proposed solution over other empirical methodologies. This probabilistic weighting capacity, allows being the classifier a very interesting methodology for the evaluation of geotechnical risk and decision making. In fact, in order to provide a practical validation, we have implemented the developed solution within a cost-benefit analysis associated with the optimization of the design of coal pillar systems involved in a "virtual" longwall mine. The ability of the classifier to quantify the probability of failure of the design along with proper quantification of the consequences of that failure, has allowed defining a risk law which is introduced into the cost-benefits model, which is able, from iterative resizing of the pillar system and the configuration of the mine, maximize the economic performance of the mining project under acceptable safety conditions established beforehand.

Soldier caste-specific gene expression in the mandibular glands of Hodotermopsis japonica (Isoptera: Termopsidae)

Although “polymorphic castes” in social insects are well known as one of the most important phenomena of polyphenism, few studies of caste-specific gene expressions have been performed in social insects. To identify genes specifically expressed in the soldier caste of the Japanese damp-wood termite Hodotermopsis japonica, we employed the differential-display method using oligo(dT) and arbitrary primers, compared mRNA from the heads of mature soldiers and pseudergates (worker caste), and identified a clone (PCR product) 329 bp in length termed SOL1. Northern blot analysis showed that the SOL1 mRNA is about 1.0 kb in length and is expressed specifically in mature soldiers, but not in pseudergates, even in the presoldier induction by juvenile hormone analogue, suggesting that the product is specific for terminally differentiated soldiers. By using the method of 5′- and 3′-rapid amplification of cDNA ends, we isolated the full length of SOL1 cDNA, which contained an ORF with a putative signal peptide at the N terminus. The sequence showed no significant homology with any other known protein sequences. In situ hybridization analysis showed that SOL1 is expressed specifically in the mandibular glands. These results strongly suggest that the SOL1 gene encodes a secretory protein specifically synthesized in the mandibular glands of the soldiers. Histological observations revealed that the gland actually develops during the differentiation into the soldier caste.

Evolution of genome–phenome diversity under environmental stress

The genomic era revolutionized evolutionary biology. The enigma of genotypic-phenotypic diversity and biodiversity evolution of genes, genomes, phenomes, and biomes, reviewed here, was central in the research program of the Institute of Evolution, University of Haifa, since 1975. We explored the following questions. (i) How much of the genomic and phenomic diversity in nature is adaptive and processed by natural selection? (ii) What is the origin and evolution of adaptation and speciation processes under spatiotemporal variables and stressful macrogeographic and microgeographic environments? We advanced ecological genetics into ecological genomics and analyzed globally ecological, demographic, and life history variables in 1,200 diverse species across life, thousands of populations, and tens of thousands of individuals tested mostly for allozyme and partly for DNA diversity. Likewise, we tested thermal, chemical, climatic, and biotic stresses in several model organisms. Recently, we introduced genetic maps and quantitative trait loci to elucidate the genetic basis of adaptation and speciation. The genome–phenome holistic model was deciphered by the global regressive, progressive, and convergent evolution of subterranean mammals. Our results indicate abundant genotypic and phenotypic diversity in nature. The organization and evolution of molecular and organismal diversity in nature at global, regional, and local scales are nonrandom and structured; display regularities across life; and are positively correlated with, and partly predictable by, abiotic and biotic environmental heterogeneity and stress. Biodiversity evolution, even in small isolated populations, is primarily driven by natural selection, including diversifying, balancing, cyclical, and purifying selective regimes, interacting with, but ultimately overriding, the effects of mutation, migration, and stochasticity.

Effect of water vapour condensation on the radon content in subsurface air in a hypogeal inactive-volcanic environment in Galdar cave, Spain

Fluctuations of trace gas activity as a response to variations in weather and microclimate conditions were monitored over a year in a shallow volcanic cave (Painted Cave, Galdar, Canary Islands, Spain). 222Rn concentration was used due to its greater sensitivity to hygrothermal variations than CO2 concentration. Radon concentration in the cave increases as effective vapour condensation within the porous system of the rock surfaces inside the cave increases due to humidity levels of more than 70%. Condensed water content in pores was assessed and linked to a reduction in the direct passage of trace gases. Fluctuations in radon activity as a response to variations in weather and microclimate conditions were statistically identified by clustering entropy changes on the radon signal and parameterised to predict radon concentration anomalies. This raises important implications for other research fields, including the surveillance of shallow volcanic and seismic activity, preventive conservation of cultural heritage in indoor spaces, indoor air quality control and studies to improve understanding of the role of subterranean terrestrial ecosystems as reservoirs and/or temporary sources of trace gases.

Boston, Massachusetts, proposed subway route, 1895 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Plan showing proposed route of subway, by the Boston Transit Commission. It was published by Geo. H. Walker & Co. in Feb. 1895. Scale [ca. 1:2,400]. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Massachusetts State Plane Coordinate System, Mainland Zone (in Feet) (Fipszone 2001). All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows proposed subway route and stations from Causeway St. along Tremont St. to Boylston St., Boston, Massachusetts. It shows also features such as streets, station platforms, surface level and subterranean tracks, and more. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps of Massachusetts from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates (1755-1922), scales, and purposes. The digitized selection includes maps of: the state, Massachusetts counties, town surveys, coastal features, real property, parks, cemeteries, railroads, roads, public works projects, etc.

World Beats : Beat Generation Writing and the Worlding of U.S. Literature /

A study of the Beat-era writers in a global context. This title was made Open Access by libraries from around the world through Knowledge Unlatched.

An account of missionary success in the island of Formosa: published in London in 1650 and now reprinted with copious appendices.

"Of the conversion of five thousand and nine hundred East Indians in the isle Formosa... related by M.C. Sibellius": p. [15]-46.

Chicago.

At head of title: Chicago public works: a history.

Iwo Jima Photo Album, Image 19

Subterranean area with block stone walls and ceiling made of tree limbs. Caption; "Reinforced Japanese cave."

A Review of the Environmental and Health Effects of Termiticides under Australian Conditions

There exists a major cost issue as regards termite damage to wooden structures. A factor in this cost has been the increasing trend towards slab-on-ground construction. Current literature has been reviewed in relation to concerns about the possible public/environmental health consequences of the repeated use of termiticides in large quantities. The previous, current and projected future use patterns of termiticides are reviewed in the context of techniques appropriate for termite control and treatment priorities. The phasing out of organochlorine termiticides in Australia was undertaken to minimise impact of these substances on the environment and to a lesser extent on public health. These persistent chemicals were replaced by substances with high activity but relatively low persistence in the soil. There has also been an increase in the use of alternative methods (e.g. physical barriers) for the control of termites. The transition away from organochlorine termiticides has led to a realisation that significant information gaps exist with regard to replacement chemicals and other technologies. Although relatively persistent, the organochlorine chemicals have a limited lifespan in soils. Their concentrations are gradually attenuated by processes such as transport away from the point of application and biodegradation. Wooden structures originally treated with these substances will, with the passing of time, be at risk of termite infestation. The only available option is re-treatment with chemicals currently registered for termite control. Thus, there are likely to be substantial future increases associated with the cost of re-treatment and repairs of older slab-on-ground dwellings. More information is required on Australian termite biology, taxonomy and ecology. The risks of termite infestation need to be evaluated, both locally and nationally so that susceptible or high risk areas, structures and building types can be identified and preventive measures taken in terms of design and construction. Building regulations and designs need to be able to reduce or eliminate high-risk housing; and eliminate or reduce conditions that are attractive to termites and/or facilitate termite infestation.

Rhizoctonia crown and root rot of the pasture legume, sulla (Hedysarum coronarium)

Rhizoctonia solani AG-2-2 was isolated from wilting and dying plants of sulla ( Hedysarum coronarium), which is currently being assessed in eastern and southern Australia for its potential as a pasture and forage legume. Infected plants in the field had extensive rotting of the taproot, lateral roots and crown. Koch's postulates were fulfilled using three inoculation methods. The disease may pose a considerable threat to the potential use of H. coronarium in the dryland, grazing farming systems of Australia, with resistance offering the most viable option for minimising its impact.

The Politics of Decentralizing National Parks Management in the Philippines

International donors and state bureaucrats in the developing world have promoted decentralization reform as the primary means to achieve equitable, efficient and sustainable natural resource management. Relatively few studies, however, consider the power interests at stake. Why do state agencies decentralize power, what political patterns unfold, and how do outcomes affect the responses of resource users? This paper explores decentralization reform by investigating the political processes behind the Philippine state's decisions to transfer authority over national parks management to local government units. Drawing on a case of devolved management at Puerto Princesa Subterranean River National Park, Palawan Island, we examine how political motives situated at different institutional scales affect the broader process of decentralization, the structure of management institutions, and overall livelihood security. We demonstrate how power struggles between the Philippine state and City Government of Palawan over the right to manage the national park have impacted the livelihood support offered by community-based conservation. We conclude that decentralization may offer empowering resu

Developmental Pathways in Microcerotermes turneri (Termitidae: Termitinae): Biometric Descriptors of Worker Caste and Instar

The foraging process of location and exploitation of food in complex termite societies is in part reliant upon unequal division of specific tasks amongst its members (polyethism). To conduct studies assessing the role of individuals in foraging activities it is necessary to have descriptors of worker caste and instar. Here we provide biometric descriptors of specific caste and instar for worker caste and instars of Microcerotermes turneri (Froggatt) (Termitidae: Termitinae) for the worker castes (male and female) for the identification of individuals in laboratory assays applicable across multiple nests. The use of head width for determining sex of workers was successful across multiple nests. The length of the first three flagellum segments of the antenna and tibia three could be used to determine worker instar.

Thermal evolution of the ore-hosting Isa Superbasin: Central and Northern Lawn Hill Platform

Hydrocarbon migration pathways and organic mineral matter associations were used to identify brine pathways in Paleoproterozic to early Mesoproterozoic rocks from the Lawn Hill platform, Mount Isa. Several types of organic matter are identified, and their thermal imprints are used to reconstruct the thermal history of the northern to central parts of the Isa superbasin. Three major thermal hydrothermal episodes are recognized from the organic maturation studies. Isotherm plots on a 175-km-long structural-sedimentological north-south section of the Isa superbasin highlight specific fault systems that acted as hot fluid conduits during the geologic history of the basin. Some of these systems indicate continuing activity into the south Nicholson basin, supported by the presence of low reflectance (type B) bitumen. This bitumen has not been overprinted by later hydrothermal episodes and therefore represents the latest thermal event. Along the north-south profile a general southward increase in temperature is evident. The lowest temperatures are recorded in proximity to the basin margin on the southern flank of the Murphy inlier. Thermal processes and their sequence of events in the basin are recorded by organic maturation, subsequent hydrocarbon generation, its migration and destruction coincident with transport and precipitation of minerals. As some timing and trapping mechanisms for minerals may have analogues with hydrocarbon entrapment, relative timing of processes leading to organic maturation, hydrocarbon generation and migration are utilized in this study to enhance understanding of ore-grade mineralization. In the Proterozoic successions of the Mount Isa basin multiple hydrocarbon generation events are recognized. These events record the transient passage of potential metal-bearing fluids rather than background conductive heat flow from the basement. Such hydrothermal fluids are responsible for inverse maturation profiles in the vicinity of the Termite Range fault and extreme maturation (reflectance values) up to 6 percent Ro at the Grevillea prospect. At Century, intermediate Ro values of

Timing and chemistry of fluid-flow events in the Lawn Hill Platform, Northern Australia

Mudrocks and carbonates of the Isa superbasin in the Lawn Hill platform in northern Australia host major base metal sulfide mineralization, including the giant strata-bound Century Zn-Pb deposit. Mineral paragenesis, stable isotope, and K-Ar dating studies demonstrate that long-lived structures such as the Termite Range fault acted as hot fluid conduits several times during the Paleoproterozoic and Mesoproterozoic in response to major tectonic events. Illite and chlorite crystallinity studies suggest the southern part of the platform has experienced higher temperatures (up to 300 degrees C) than similar stratigraphic horizons in the north. The irregular downhole variation of illite crystallinity values provides further information oil the thermal regime in the basin and shows that clay formation was controlled not only by temperature increase with depth but also by high water/rock ratios along relatively permeable zones. K-Ar dating of illite, in combination with other data, may indicate three major thermal events in the central and northern Lawn Hill platform Lit 1500, 1440 to 1400, and 1250 to 1150 Ma. This study did not detect the earlier Century base metal mineralizing event at 1575 Ma. 1500 Ma ages are recorded only in the south and correspond to the age of the Late Isan orogeny and deposition of the Lower Roper superbasin. They may reflect exhumation of a provenance region. The 1440 to 1300 Ma ages are related to fault reactivation and a thermal pulse at similar to 1440 to 1400 Ma possibly accompanied by fluid flow, with subsequent enhanced cooling possibly due to thermal relaxation or further crustal exhumation. The youngest thermal and/or fluid-flow event at 1250 to 1150 Ma is recorded mainly to the cast of the Tern-lite Range fault and may be related to the assembly of the Rodinian supercontinent. Fluids in equilibrium with illite that formed over a range of temperatures, at different times in different parts of the platform. have relatively uniform oxygen isotope compositions and more variable hydrogen isotope compositions (delta O-18 = 3.5-9.7 parts per thousand V-SMOW; delta D = -94 to -36 parts per thousand V-SMOW). The extent of the 180 enrichment and the variably depleted hydrogen isotope compositions suggest the illite interacted with deep-basin hypersaline brines that were composed of evaporated seawater and/or highly evolved meteoric water. Siderite is the most abundant iron-rich gangue phase in the Century Zn-Pb deposit, which is surrounded by all extensive ferroan carbonate alteration halo. Modeling suggests that the ore siderite formed at temperatures of 120 degrees to 150 degrees C, whereas siderite and ankerite in the alteration halo formed at temperatures of 150 degrees to 180 degrees C. The calculated isotopic compositions of the fluids are consistent with O-18-rich basinal brines and mixed inorganic and organic carbon Sources (6180 = 3-10 parts per thousand V-SMOW, delta C-13 = -7 to -3 parts per thousand V-PDB). in the northeast Lawn Hill platform carbonate-rich rocks preserve marine to early diagenetic carbon and oxygen isotope compositions, whereas ferroan carbonate cements in siltstones and shales in the Desert Creek borehole are O-18 and C-13 depleted relative to the sedimentary carbonates. The good agreement between temperature estimates from illite crystallinity and organic reflectance (160 degrees-270 degrees C) and inverse correlation with carbonate delta O-18 values indicates that organic maturation and carbonate precipitation in the northeast Lawn Hill platform resulted from interaction with the 1250 to 1150 Ma fluids. The calculated isotopic compositions of the fluid are consistent with evolved basinal brine (delta O-18 = 5.1-9.4 parts per thousand V-SMOW; delta C-13 = -13.2 to -3.7 parts per thousand V-PDB) that contained a variable organic carbon component from the oxidation and/or hydrolysis of organic matter in the host sequence. The occurrence of extensive O-18- and C-13-depleted ankerite and siderite alteration in Desert Creek is related to the high temperature of the 1250 to 1150 Ma fluid-flow event in the northeast Lawn Hill platform, in contrast to the lower temperature fluids associated with the earlier Century Zn-Pb deposit in the central Lawn Hill platform.