Heterogeneity and event dependence in the analysis of sickness absence

Sickness absence (SA) is an important social, economic and public health issue. Identifying and understanding the determinants, whether biological, regulatory or, health services-related, of variability in SA duration is essential for better management of SA. The conditional frailty model (CFM) is useful when repeated SA events occur within the same individual, as it allows simultaneous analysis of event dependence and heterogeneity due to unknown, unmeasured, or unmeasurable factors. However, its use may encounter computational limitations when applied to very large data sets, as may frequently occur in the analysis of SA duration. To overcome the computational issue, we propose a Poisson-based conditional frailty model (CFPM) for repeated SA events that accounts for both event dependence and heterogeneity. To demonstrate the usefulness of the model proposed in the SA duration context, we used data from all non-work-related SA episodes that occurred in Catalonia (Spain) in 2007, initiated by either a diagnosis of neoplasm or mental and behavioral disorders. As expected, the CFPM results were very similar to those of the CFM for both diagnosis groups. The CPU time for the CFPM was substantially shorter than the CFM. The CFPM is an suitable alternative to the CFM in survival analysis with recurrent events,especially with large databases.

Étude des sédiments quaternaires, de la molasse et sa tectonique, dans le Grand Lac (Léman) à partir de données sismiques 2D et 3D

RESUME L'Institut de Géophysique de l'Université de Lausanne a développé au cours de ces dernières années un système d'acquisition de sismique réflexion multitrace à haute résolution 2D et 3D. L'objectif de cette thèse était de poursuivre ce développement tout améliorant les connaissances de la géologie sous le lac Léman, en étudiant en particulier la configuration des grands accidents sous-lacustres dans la Molasse (Tertiaire) qui forme l'essentiel du substratum des formations quaternaires. En configuration 2D, notre système permet d'acquérir des profils sismiques avec une distance inter-CDP de 1,25 m. La couverture varie entre 6 et 18 selon le nombre de traces et la distance inter-tir. Le canon à air (15/15 eu. in.), offre une résolution verticale de 1,25 ni et une pénétration maximale de 300 m sous le fond de l'eau. Nous avons acquis au total plus de 400 km de sections 2D dans le Grand Lac et le Haut Lac entre octobre 2000 et juillet 2004. Une campagne de sismique 3D a fourni des données au large d'Evian sur une surface de 442,5 m sur 1450 m, soit 0,64 km2. La navigation ainsi que le positionnement des hydrophones et de la source ont été réalisés avec des GPS différentiels. Nous avons utilisé un traitement sismique conventionnel, sans appliquer d'AGC et en utilisant une migration post-stack. L'interprétation du substratum antéquaternaire est basée sur l'identification des sismofaciès, sur leurs relations avec les unités géologiques adjacentes au lac, ainsi que sur quelques données de forages. Nous obtenons ainsi une carte des unités géologiques dans le Grand Lac. Nous précisons la position du chevauchement subalpin entre la ville de Lausanne, sur la rive nord, et le bassin de Sciez, sur la rive sud. Dans la Molasse de Plateau, nous avons identifié les décrochements de Pontarlier et de St. Cergue ainsi que plusieurs failles non reconnues jusqu'ici. Nous avons cartographié les accidents qui affectent la Molasse subalpine ainsi que le plan de chevauchement du flysch sur la Molasse près de la rive sud du lac. Une nouvelle carte tectonique de la région lémanique a ainsi pu être dressée. L'analyse du substratum ne montre pas de failles suggérant une origine tectonique de la cuvette lémanique. Par contre, nous suggérons que la forme du creusement glaciaire, donc de la forme du lac Léman, a été influencée par la présence de failles dans le substratum antéquaternaire. L'analyse des sédiments quaternaires nous a permis de tracer des cartes des différentes interfaces ou unités qui les composent. La carte du toit du substratum antéquaternaire montre la présence de chenaux d'origine glaciaire dont la profondeur maximale atteint la cote -200 ni. Leur pente est dirigée vers le nord-est, à l'inverse du sens d'écoulement actuel des eaux. Nous expliquons cette observation par l'existence de circulations sous-glaciaires d'eau artésienne. Les sédiments glaciaires dont l'épaisseur maximale atteint 150 ni au centre du lac ont enregistré les différentes récurrences glaciaires. Dans la zone d'Evian, nous mettons en évidence la présence de lentilles de sédiments glaciolacustres perchées sur le flanc de la cuvette lémanique. Nous avons corrélé ces unités avec des données de forage et concluons qu'il s'agit du complexe inférieur de la pile sédimentaire d'Evian. Celui-ci, âgé de plus de 30 000 ans, serait un dépôt de Kame associé à un lac périglaciaire. La sismique réflexion 3D permet de préciser l'orientation de l'alimentation en matériel détritique de l'unité. La finesse des images obtenues nous permet également d'établir quels types d'érosion ont affecté certaines unités. Les sédiments lacustres, dont l'épaisseur maximale imagée atteint plus de 225 m et sans doute 400 ni sous le delta du Rhône, indiquent plusieurs mécanismes de dépôts. A la base, une mégaturbidite, épaisse d'une trentaine de mètres en moyenne, s'étend entre l'embouchure de la Dranse et le delta du Rhône. Au-dessus, la décantation des particules en suspension d'origine biologique et détritique fournit l'essentiel des sédiments. Dans la partie orientale du lac, les apports détritiques du Rhône forment un delta qui prograde vers l'ouest en s'imbriquant avec les sédiments déposés par décantation. La structure superficielle du delta a brutalement évolué, probablement à la suite de l'évènement catastrophique du Tauredunum (563 A.D.). Sa trace probable se marque par la présence d'une surface érosive que nous avons cartographiée. Le delta a ensuite changé de géométrie, avec notamment un déplacement des chenaux sous-lacustres. Sur l'ensemble de nos sections sismiques, nous n'observons aucune faille dans les sédiments quaternaires qui attesterait d'une tectonique postglaciaire du substratum. ABSTRACT During the last few years the institute of Geophysics of the University of Lausanne cleveloped a 2D and 3D high-resolution multichannel seismic reflection acquisition system. The objective of the present work was to carry on this development white improving our knowledge of the geology under Lake Geneva, in particular by studying the configuration of the large accidents affecting the Tertiary Molasse that makes up the basement of most Quaternary deposits. In its 2D configuration, our system makes it possible to acquire seismic profiles with a CDP interval of 1.25 m. The fold varies from 6 to 18 depending on the number of traces and the shooting interval. Our air gun (15/15 cu. in.) provides a vertical resolution of 1.25 m and a maximum penetration depth of approximately 300 m under water bottom. We acquired more than 400 km of 2D sections in the Grand Lac and the Haut Lac between October 2000 and July 2004. A 3D seismic survey off the city of Evian provided data on a surface of 442.5 m x 1450 m (0.64 km2). Ship's navigation as well as hydrophone- and source positioning were carried out with differential GPS. The seismic data were processed following a conventional sequence without .applying AGC and using post-stack migration. The interpretation of the pre-Quaternary substratum is based on sismofacies, on their relationships with terrestrial geological units and on some borehole data. We thus obtained a map of the geological units in the Grand Lac. We defined the location of the subalpine thrust from Lausanne, on the north shore, to the Sciez Basin, on the south shore. Within the Molasse de Plateau, we identified the already know Pontarlier and St Cergue transforms Fault as well as faults. We mapped faults that affect subalpine Molasse as well as the thrust fault plane between alpine flysch and Molasse near the lake's south shore. A new tectonic map of the Lake Geneva region could thus be drawn up. The substratum does not show faults indicating a tectonic origin for the Lake Geneva Basin. However, we suggest that the orientation of glacial erosion, and thus the shape of Lake Geneva, vas influenced by the presence of faults in the pre-Quaternary basement. The analysis of Quaternary sediments enabled us to draw up maps of various discontinuities or internal units. The top pre-Quaternary basement map shows channels of glacial origin, the deepest of them reaching an altitude of 200 m a.s.l. The channel's slopes are directed to the North-East, in opposite direction of the present water flow. We explain this observation by the presence of artesian subglacial water circulation. Glacial sediments, the maximum thickness of which reaches 150 m in the central part of the lake, record several glacial recurrences. In the Evian area, we found lenses of glacio-lacustrine sediments set high up on the flank of the Lake Geneva Bassin. We correlated these units with on-land borehole data and concluded that they represent the lower complex of the Evian sedimentary pile. The lower complex is aider than 30 000 years, and it could be a Kame deposit associated with a periglacial lake. Our 3D seismic reflexion survey enables us to specify the supply direction of detrital material in this unit. With detailed seismic images we established how some units were affected by different erosion types. The lacustrine sediments we imaged in Lake Geneva are thicker than 225 m and 400 m or more Linder the Rhone Delta. They indicate several depositional mechanisms. Their base is a major turbidite, thirty meters thick on average, that spreads between the Dranse mouth and the Rhone delta. Above this unit, settling of suspended biological and detrital particles provides most of the sediments. In the eastern part of the lake, detrital contribution from the Rhone builds a delta that progrades to the west and imbricates with the settling sediments. The shallow structure of the Rhone delta abruptly evolved, probably after the catastrophic Tauredunum event (563 A.D.). It probably coincides with an erosive surface that we mapped. As a result, the delta geometry changed, in particular associated with a displacement of water bottom channels. In all our seismic sections, we do not observe fault in the Quaternary sediments that would attest postglacial tectonic activity in the basement.

ViralZone: recent updates to the virus knowledge resource.

ViralZone (http://viralzone.expasy.org) is a knowledge repository that allows users to learn about viruses including their virion structure, replication cycle and host-virus interactions. The information is divided into viral fact sheets that describe virion shape, molecular biology and epidemiology for each viral genus, with links to the corresponding annotated proteomes of UniProtKB. Each viral genus page contains detailed illustrations, text and PubMed references. This new update provides a linked view of viral molecular biology through 133 new viral ontology pages that describe common steps of viral replication cycles shared by several viral genera. This viral cell-cycle ontology is also represented in UniProtKB in the form of annotated keywords. In this way, users can navigate from the description of a replication-cycle event, to the viral genus concerned, and the associated UniProtKB protein records.

Lake dwellers occupation gap in Lake Geneva (France-Switzerland) possibly explained by an earthquake-mass movement-tsunami event during Early Bronze Age

High-resolution seismic and sediment core data from the 'Grand Lac' basin of Lake Geneva reveal traces of repeated slope instabilities with one main slide-evolved mass-flow (minimum volume 0.13 km3) that originated from the northern lateral slope of the lake near the city of Lausanne. Radiocarbon dating of organic remains sampled from the top of the main deposit gives an age interval of 1865-1608 BC. This date coincides with the age interval for a mass movement event described in the 'Petit Lac' basin of Lake Geneva (1872-1622 BC). Because multiple mass movements took place at the same time in different parts of the lake, we consider the most likely trigger mechanism to be a strong earthquake (Mw 6) that occurred in the period between 1872 and 1608 BC. Based on numerical simulations, we show the major deposit near Lausanne would have generated a tsunami with local wave heights of up to 6 m. The combined effects of the earthquake and the following tsunami provide a possible explanation for a gap in lake dwellers occupation along the shores of Lake Geneva revealed by dendrochronological dating of two palafitte archaeological sites.

Automatic Recognition of Leaves by Shape Detection Pre-Processing with Ica

In this work we present a simulation of a recognition process with perimeter characterization of a simple plant leaves as a unique discriminating parameter. Data coding allowing for independence of leaves size and orientation may penalize performance recognition for some varieties. Border description sequences are then used to characterize the leaves. Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is then applied in order to study which is the best number of components to be considered for the classification task, implemented by means of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Obtained results with ICA as a pre-processing tool are satisfactory, and compared with some references our system improves the recognition success up to 80.8% depending on the number of considered independent components.

Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

A tutorial review of electrical neuroimaging from group-average to single-trial event-related potentials.

This tutorial review details some of the recent advances in signal analyses applied to event-related potential (ERP) data. These "electrical neuroimaging" analyses provide reference-independent measurements of response strength and response topography that circumvent statistical and interpretational caveats of canonical ERP analysis methods while also taking advantage of the greater information provided by high-density electrode montages. Electrical neuroimaging can be applied across scales ranging from group-averaged ERPs to single-subject and single-trial datasets. We illustrate these methods with a tutorial dataset and place particular emphasis on their suitability for studies of clinical and/or developmental populations.

Ferromagnetic shape memory alloys: structural and thermal properties

The most extensively studied Heusler alloys are those based on the Ni-Mn-Ga system. However, to overcome the high cost of Gallium and the usually low martensitic transformation temperature, the search for Ga-free alloys has been recently attempted, particularly, by introducing In, Sn or Sb. In this work, two alloys (Mn50Ni35.5In14.5 and Ni50Mn35In15) have been obtained by melt spinning. We outline their structural and thermal behaviour. Mn50Ni35.5In14.5 alloy has the transformation above room temperature whereas Ni50Mn35In15 does not have this transformation in the temperature range here analyzed

Community Water Sampling Event

Summary of water monitoring conducted by the City of Bondurant and Bondurant-Farrar school students of sites in and around Bondurant.

Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0

Mesoscale numerical analysis of the historical November 1982 heavy precipitation event over Andorra (Eastern Pyrenees)

From 6 to 8 November 1982 one of the most catastrophic flash-flood events was recorded in the Eastern Pyrenees affecting Andorra and also France and Spain with rainfall accumulations exceeding 400 mm in 24 h, 44 fatalities and widespread damage. This paper aims to exhaustively document this heavy precipitation event and examines mesoscale simulations performed by the French Meso-NH non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Large-scale simulations show the slow-evolving synoptic environment favourable for the development of a deep Atlantic cyclone which induced a strong southerly flow over the Eastern Pyrenees. From the evolution of the synoptic pattern four distinct phases have been identified during the event. The mesoscale analysis presents the second and the third phase as the most intense in terms of rainfall accumulations and highlights the interaction of the moist and conditionally unstable flows with the mountains. The presence of a SW low level jet (30 m s-1) around 1500 m also had a crucial role on focusing the precipitation over the exposed south slopes of the Eastern Pyrenees. Backward trajectories based on Eulerian on-line passive tracers indicate that the orographic uplift was the main forcing mechanism which triggered and maintained the precipitating systems more than 30 h over the Pyrenees. The moisture of the feeding flow mainly came from the Atlantic Ocean (7-9 g kg-1) and the role of the Mediterranean as a local moisture source was very limited (2-3 g kg-1) due to the high initial water vapour content of the parcels and the rapid passage over the basin along the Spanish Mediterranean coast (less than 12 h).

Atomic Ordering and Martensitic Transitions in Cu-Zn-Al Shape Memory Alloys

We present results from both, calorimetric and dilatometric studies of the isothermal ordering process taking place in a Cu-Zn-Al shape memory alloy after quenches from Tq temperatures ranging from 350 K to 1200 K. The dissipated energy and the length variations of the system are obtained during the process. The change of these quantities in the whole process have been compared with the difference [MATH] between Ms, measured after the relaxation and Ms measured just after the quench. We obtain that these three quantities present, as a function of Tq, the same qualitative behaviour. These changes are then associated with changes of the L21 ordering after the quench in the system. The relaxational process does not follow a single exponential decay. Instead, a continuous slowing down is observed. A relaxation time [MATH] has been defined to characterize the relaxation rate. We show that [MATH] depends on both the annealing and the quenching (Tq [MATH] 800 K) temperatures through an Arrhenius law.

Rapid marine recovery after the end-Permian mass-extinction event in the absence of marine anoxia

A new Early Triassic marine fauna is described from the Central Oman Mountains. The fauna is Griesbachian in age, on the basis of abundant conodonts and ammonoids, and was deposited in an oxygenated seamount setting off the Arabian platform margin. It is the first Griesbachian assemblage from a well-oxygenated marine setting and thus provides a test for the hypothesis that widespread anoxia prevented rapid recovery. The earliest Griesbachian (parvus zone) contains a low-diversity benthic fauna dominated by the bivalves Promyalina and Claraia. A similar level of recovery characterizes the immediate postextinction interval worldwide. However, the middle upper Griesbachian sedimentary rocks (isarcica and catinata zones) contain an incredibly diverse benthic fauna of bivalves, gastropods, articulate brachiopods, a new undescribed crinoid, echinoids, and ostracods. This fauna is more diverse and ecologically complex than the typical middle to late Griesbachian faunas described from oxygen-restricted settings worldwide. The level of postextinction recovery observed in the Oman fauna is not recorded elsewhere until the Spathian. These data support the hypothesis that the apparent delay in recovery after the end-Permian extinction event was due to widespread and prolonged benthic oxygen restriction: in the absence of anoxia, marine recovery is much faster.