A candidate M31/M32 intergalactic microlensing event

We report the discovery of a microlensing candidate projected 2'54

A short-timescale candidate microlensing event in the point-agape pixel lensing survey of M31

We report the discovery of a short-duration microlensing candidate in the northern field of the POINT-AGAPE pixel lensing survey toward M31. Almost certainly, the source star has been identified on Hubble Space Telescope archival images, allowing us to infer an Einstein crossing time of t(E) = 10.4 days, a maximum magnification of A(max) similar to 18, and a lens-source proper motion mu (rel) > 0.3 mu as day(-1). The event has a projected separation of 8' from the center of M31, beyond the bulk of the stellar lens population. There are three plausible identifications/locations for the lensing object: a massive compact halo object (MACHO) in either M31 or the Milky Way, or a star in the M31 disk. The most probable mass is 0.06 M-. for an M31 MACHO, 0.02 M-. for a Milky Way MACHO, and 0.2 M-. for an M31 stellar lens. While the stellar interpretation is possible, the MACHO interpretation is the most probable for halo fractions above 20%.

The developmental character of cardiac autonomic responses to an acute noxious event in 4- and 8-month-old healthy infants

Heart rate (HR) has been widely studied as a measure of an individual's response to painful stimuli. It remains unclear whether changes in mean HR or the variability of HR are specifically related to the noxious stimulus (i.e. pain). Neither is it well understood how such changes reflect underlying neurologic control mechanisms that produce these responses, or how these mechanisms change during the first year of life. To study the changes in cardiac autonomic modulation that occur with acute pain and with age during early infancy, the relationship between respiratory activity and short-term variations of HR (i.e. respiratory sinus arrhythmia) was quantified in a longitudinal study of term born healthy infants who underwent a finger lance blood collection at 4 months of age (n = 24) and again at 8 months of age (n = 20). Quantitative respiratory activity and HR were obtained during baseline, lance, and recovery periods. Time and frequency domain analyses from 2.2-min epochs of data yielded mean values, spectral measures of low (0.04-0.15 Hz) and high (0.15-0.80 Hz) frequency power (LF and HF), and the LF/HF ratio. To determine sympathetic and parasympathetic cardiac activity, the transfer relation between respiration and HR was used. At both 4 and 8 months, mean HR increased significantly with the noxious event (p > 0.01). There were age-related differences in the pattern of LF, HF, and LF/HF ratio changes. Although these parameters all decreased (p > 0.01) at 4 months, LF and LF/HF increased at 8 months and at 8 months HF remained stable in response to the noxious stimulus. Transfer gain changes with the lance demonstrated a change from predominant vagal baseline to a sympathetic condition at both ages. The primary finding of this study is that a response to an acute noxious stimulus appears to produce an increase in respiratory-related sympathetic HR control and a significant decrease in respiratory-related parasympathetic control at both 4 and 8 months. Furthermore, with increasing age, the sympathetic and parasympathetic changes appear to be less intense, but more sustained.

Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background. From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates, across the populations. Methods. In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings. Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation. Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Model selection for prognostic time-to-event gene signature discovery with applications in early breast cancer data

Model selection between competing models is a key consideration in the discovery of prognostic multigene signatures. The use of appropriate statistical performance measures as well as verification of biological significance of the signatures is imperative to maximise the chance of external validation of the generated signatures. Current approaches in time-to-event studies often use only a single measure of performance in model selection, such as logrank test p-values, or dichotomise the follow-up times at some phase of the study to facilitate signature discovery. In this study we improve the prognostic signature discovery process through the application of the multivariate partial Cox model combined with the concordance index, hazard ratio of predictions, independence from available clinical covariates and biological enrichment as measures of signature performance. The proposed framework was applied to discover prognostic multigene signatures from early breast cancer data. The partial Cox model combined with the multiple performance measures were used in both guiding the selection of the optimal panel of prognostic genes and prediction of risk within cross validation without dichotomising the follow-up times at any stage. The signatures were successfully externally cross validated in independent breast cancer datasets, yielding a hazard ratio of 2.55 [1.44, 4.51] for the top ranking signature.

North Atlantic marine radiocarbon reservoir ages through Heinrich event H4: A new method for marine age model construction

Cooling and sinking of dense saline water in the Norwegian–Greenland Sea is essential for the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water. The convection in the Norwegian–Greenland Sea allows for a northward flow of warm surface water and southward transport of cold saline water. This circulation system is highly sensitive to climate change and has been shown to operate in different modes. In ice cores the last glacial period is characterized by millennial-scale Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) events of warm interstadials and cold stadials. Similar millennial-scale variability (linked to D–O events) is evident from oceanic cores, suggesting a strong coupling of the atmospheric and oceanic circulations system. Particularly long-lasting cold stadials correlate with North Atlantic Heinrich events, where icebergs released from the continents caused a spread of meltwater over the northern North Atlantic and Nordic seas. The meltwater layer is believed to have caused a stop or near-stop in the deep convection, leading to cold climate. The spreading of meltwater and changes in oceanic circulation have a large influence on the carbon exchange between atmosphere and the deep ocean and lead to profound changes in the 14C activity of the surface ocean. Here we demonstrate marine 14C reservoir ages (R) of up to c. 2000 years for Heinrich event H4. Our R estimates are based on a new method for age model construction using identified tephra layers and tie-points based on abrupt interstadial warmings.

Hydroclimatic changes during the 8.2 ka event inferred from Irish subfossil pines

A significant cold event, derived from the Greenland ice cores, took place between 8200 and 8000 cal. BP. Modeling of the event suggests that higher northern latitudes would have experienced considerable decreases in precipitation and that Ireland would have witnessed one of the greatest depressions. However, no well-dated proxy record exists from the British Isles to test the model results. Here we present independent evidence for a phase of major pine recruitment on Irish bogs at around 8150 cal. BP. Dendrochronological dating of subfossil trees from three sites reveal synchronicity in germination across the region, indicative of a regional forcing, and allows for high-precision radiocarbon based dates. The inner-rings of 40% of all samples from the north of Ireland dating to the period 8,500-7,500 cal. BP fall within a 25-year window. The concurrent colonization of pine on peatland is interpreted as drier conditions in the region and provide the first substantive proxy data in support of a significant hydrological change in the north of Ireland accompanying the 8.2 ka event. Our results also indicate that the apparent temporal asynchrony between anomalies in proxy records at the time could be a result of differences in dating methods.

Hydroclimatic changes during the 8.2 ka event revealed by Irish pines

A pivotal cold event, deduced from the Greenland ice cores, took place between 8200 and 8000 cal. BP. Modelling of this climatic episode suggests that higher northern latitudes would have also experienced substantial reduction in rainfall and that Ireland would have observed a notable decline. No well-dated proxy record exists from the British Isles to test the model results. We present significant independent data for a phase of increased Scots pine initiation on Irish bogs at around 8150 cal. BP. Dendrochronological dating of sub-fossil Scots pine trees from three locations reveals synchronicity in germination across the area, indicative of a regional forcing, and allows for high-precision radiocarbon based dates. The starting rings of 40% of all samples from the north of Ireland dating to the period 8500-7500 cal. BP fall within a period of 25 years. The present colonisation model of Scots pine on peatland is interpreted as increasing drier conditions in the region and provides the first meaningful proxy data in support of a significant hydrological change in the north of Ireland accompanying the 8.2 ka event. The dating uncertainties associated with the Irish Scots pine record and the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) do not allow for any overlap between the two. The results indicate that the discrepancy could be a result of dating inaccuracy that could have affected analysis of prior proxy alignments.