An evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for value-at-risk estimation

Market risk exposure plays a key role for nancial institutions risk management. A possible measure for this exposure is to evaluate losses likely to incurwhen the price of the portfolio's assets declines using Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates, one of the most prominent measure of nancial downside market risk. This paper suggests an evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for VaR estimation. The approach is based on an extension of the possibilistic fuzzy c-means clustering and functional fuzzy rule-based modeling, which employs memberships and typicalities to update clusters and creates new clusters based on a statistical control distance-based criteria. ePFM also uses an utility measure to evaluate the quality of the current cluster structure. Computational experiments consider data of the main global equity market indexes of United States, London, Germany, Spain and Brazil from January 2000 to December 2012 for VaR estimation using ePFM, traditional VaR benchmarks such as Historical Simulation, GARCH, EWMA, and Extreme Value Theory and state of the art evolving approaches. The results show that ePFM is a potential candidate for VaR modeling, with better performance than alternative approaches.

Using geostatistical analysis to evaluate the presence of Rotylenchulus reniformis in cotton crops in Brazil: Economic implications

In recent years, the productivity of cotton in Brazil has been progressively decreasing, often the result of the reniform nematode Rotylenchulus reniformis. This species call reduce crop productivity by up to 40%. Nematodes can be controlled by nematicides but, because of expense and toxicity, application of nematicides to large crop areas may be undesirable. In this Work. a methodology using geostatistics for quantifying the risk of nematicide application to small crop areas is proposed. This risk, in economic terms, can be compared to nematicide cost to develop an optimal strategy for Precision Farming, Soil (300 cm(3)) was sampled in a regular network from a R. reniformis-infested area that was a cotton monoculture for 20 years. The number of nematodes in each sample was counted. The nematode number per volume of soil was characterized using geostatistics, and 100 conditional simulations were conducted. Based on the simulations, risk maps were plotted showing the areas where nematicide should be applied in a Precision Farming context. The methodology developed can be applied to farming in countries that ale highly dependent on agriculture, with useful economic implications.

Quality of life and its association with cardiovascular risk factors in a community health care program population

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate quality of life in a population that attended a specific community event on health care education, and to investigate the association of their quality of life with the presence of cardiovascular risk factors INTRODUCTION: Interest in health-related quality of life is growing worldwide as a consequence of increasing rates of chronic disease. However, little is known about the association between quality of life and cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: This study included 332 individuals. Demographics, blood pressure, body mass index, and casual glycemia were evaluated. The brief version of the World Health Organization Quality of Life questionnaire on quality of life was given to them. The medians of the scores obtained for the physical, psychological, emotional, and environmental domains were used as cutoffs to define higher and lower scores. A multinomial logistic regression model was used to define the parameters associated with lower scores. RESULTS: Diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, and obesity were associated with lower scores in the physical domain. Dyslipidemia was also associeted with lower scores in the psychological domain. Male gender and regular physical activity had protective effects on quality of life. Aging was inversely associated with decreased quality of life in the environmental domain. CONCLUSION: The presence of cardiovascular risk factors is related to a decreased quality of life. Conversely, male gender and regular physical activity had protective effects on quality of life. These findings suggest that exercising should be further promoted by health-related public programs, with a special focus on women.

Autoimmune thyroid disease as a risk factor for angioedema in patients with chronic idiopathic urticaria: a case-control study

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparison of risk factors among blood donors, volunteers and replacement individuals, infected or not by hepatitis C virus

Hepatitis C is transmitted primarily parenterally by contaminated blood and is often associated with: intravenous drug abuse, invasive procedures, blood transfusions, acupuncture, tattooing, and alcohol and tobacco use. This study aimed to quantify and evaluate the risk factors among blood donors, volunteer blood donors and replacement individuals, infected or not by the C virus. The main transmission routes of C virus were identified in 55 men and 25 women (GI) monitored by the Ambulatory Unit of the Department of Tropical Diseases, Botucatu Medical School, and in 24 men and 26 women (GII), all active blood donors at the Bauru State Hospital Transfusional Agency. Both groups were similar in: tobacco and alcohol consumption, sexual behavior, tattooing and illicit drug use. The duration of alcohol and tobacco consumption and blood transfusions in GI were longer, whereas the option for steady partners, condom use, disposable materials and piercings were predominant in GII. In conclusion, the risk factors for hepatitis C demonstrate the necessity of health policies that act on the primary and secondary prevention levels (respectively, reduction of infection incidence and hepatopathy risk).

Chlamydial infection in a high risk population: association with vaginal flora patterns

This study aimed to determine the frequency of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) infection among high risk Brazilian women and evaluate its association with vaginal flora patterns.This was a cross-sectional study, performed in an outpatient clinic of Bauru State Hospital, So Paulo, Brazil. A total of 142 women were included from 2006 to 2008. Inclusion criteria was dyspareunia, pain during bimanual exam, presence of excessive cervical mucus, cervical ectopy or with three or more episodes of abnormal vaginal flora (AVF) in the previous year before enrollment. Endocervical CT testing was performed by PCR. Vaginal swabs were collected for microscopic assessment of the microbial flora pattern. Gram-stained smears were classified in normal, intermediate or bacterial vaginosis (BV), and recognition of Candida sp. morphotypes. Wet mount smears were used for detection of Trichomonas vaginalis and aerobic vaginitis (AV).Thirty-four of 142 women (23.9%) tested positive for CT. AVF was found in 50 (35.2%) cases. The most frequent type of AVF was BV (17.6%). CT was strongly associated with the presence of AV (n = 7, 4.9%, P = 0.018), but not BV (n = 25, 17.6%, P = 0.80) or intermediate flora (n = 18, 12.7%, P = 0.28).A high rate of chlamydial infection was found in this population. Chlamydia infection is associated with aerobic vaginitis.

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Chlamydia trachomatis Cervicitis in Pregnant Women at the Genital Tract Infection in Obstetrics Unit Care at Botucatu Medical School, São Paulo State University - UNESP, Brazil

Objective. To evaluate the prevalence of and risk factors for Chlamydia trachomatis cervicitis in pregnant women seen at the Genital Tract Infection in Obstetrics Unit Care in Botucatu Medical School, São Paulo State University - UNESP.Materials and Methods. Between June 2006 and February 2008, 101 pregnant women were included in this study. During the gynecologic examination, cervical secretions were collected using cytobrush Plus GT (CooperSurgical Inc) to assess C. trachomatis using polymerase chain reaction. Vaginal flora were examined by Gram stain, and socio-demographic data were extracted from medical records.Results. of the 101 patients, 26 (25.7%) were positive for C. trachomatis. The median age of the infected group was 24 years (range = 13-40 y), and 48.5% of them had abnormal vaginal flora. The presence of chlamydial infection was associated with smoking (odds ratio [OR] = 2.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.01-7.19), residing in a city with fewer than 100,000 inhabitants (OR = 2.86, 95% CI = 1.03-7.94), presence of condyloma acuminatum (p = .03), and presence of discreet inflammation on Pap smear (p = .02).Conclusions. The prevalence of C. trachomatis is high in pregnant women seen at the Genital Infection Unit Care, UNESP, and is related to many risk factors. Therefore, its screening is extremely important in reducing obstetrical and neonatal complications.

Association between anthropometric indicators of body fat and metabolic risk markers in post-menopausal women

Objective. to evaluate anthropometric indicators of body fat and their association with metabolic risk markers in postmenopausal women.Methods. A cross-sectional study with 80 Brazilian women (40-70 years) was carried out. Body mass index (BMI = weight/height(2)), waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) were obtained for anthropometric evaluation. Trunk fat mass (TFM) was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. The following metabolic variables were evaluated: total cholesterol (TC), HDL, LDL, triglycerides (TG), as well as glycemia and insulin to determine insulin resistance (HOMA-IR).Results. Overweight and obesity were observed in 81% of the women. Values of WC >88 cm were observed in 68.5% of the women. on average, TC, LDL and TG levels were above normal levels in 60, 50 and 42.5% of the women, respectively; and HDL was normal in 82.5%. IR was observed in 37.5% of the women. Positive correlations were found between anthropometric indicators and TFM (P < 0.05). WC was most correlated with TFM (r = 0.92), followed by BMI (r = 0.88) and by WHR (r = 0.48; P < 0.05). All anthropometric indicators and TFM showed significant negative correlations with HDL and significant positive correlations with HOMA-IR (P < 0.05). Only WHR was significantly associated with dysglycemia (R(2) = 12%), hypertriglyceridemia (R(2) = 17%) and decreased HDL (R(2) = 27%). WC was significantly associated with HOMA-IR (R(2) = 34%).Conclusion. WC and WHR are anthropometric measures that showed strong correlation with TFM and with metabolic risk markers in postmenopausal women.

Vaginal Flora Alterations and Clinical Symptoms in Low-Risk Pregnant Women

Background: To evaluate associations between alterations in vaginal flora and clinical symptoms in low-risk pregnant women. Methods: Vaginal specimens from 245 pregnant women were analyzed by microscopy for vaginal flora. Signs and symptoms of vaginal infection were determined by patient interviews and gynecologic examinations. Results: Abnormal vaginal flora was identified in 45.7% of the subjects. The final clinical diagnoses were bacterial vaginosis (21.6%), vaginal candidosis (10.2%), intermediate vaginal flora (5.2%), aerobic vaginitis (2.9%), mixed flora (2.9%) and other abnormal findings (2.9%). The percentage of women with or without clinical signs or symptoms was not significantly different between these categories. The presence of vaginal odor or vaginal discharge characteristics was not diagnostic of any specific flora alteration; pruritus was highly associated with candidosis (p < 0.0001). Compared to women with normal flora, pruritus was more prevalent in women with candidosis (p < 0.0001), while vaginal odor was associated with bacterial vaginosis (p = 0.0026). Conclusion: The prevalence of atypical vaginal flora is common in our low-risk pregnant population and is not always associated with pathology. The occurrence of specific signs or symptoms does not always discriminate between women with different types of atypical vaginal flora or between those with abnormal and normal vaginal flora. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel

Metabolic syndrome and its associated risk factors in Brazilian postmenopausal women

Objective To evaluate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its associated risk factors in Brazilian postmenopausal women.Methods In this cross-sectional study, a total of 368 postmenopausal women, aged 40-75 years, seeking health care at a public outpatient center in Southeastern Brazil, were included. According to the US National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) guidelines, MetS was diagnosed in subjects with three or more of the following: waist circumference >= 88 cm, blood pressure >= 130/85 mHg, triglycerides >= 150 mg/dl, high density lipoprotein cholesterol <50 mg/dl and glucose >= 110 mg/dl. Data on past medical history, tobacco use, anthropometric indicators, and values of C-reactive protein (CRP) were collected. Multivariate analysis, using a logistic regression model (odds ratio, OR) was used to evaluate the influence of various simultaneous MetS risk factors.Results The prevalence of having at least three, four and five MetS diagnostic criteria were met in 39.6%, 16.8% and 3.8% of the cases, respectively. The most prevalent risk factor was abdominal obesity, affecting 62.5% of women. The risk of MetS increased with a personal history of diabetes (OR 5.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.82-12.54), hypertension (OR 4.52, 95% CI 2.89-7.08), cardiovascular disease (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.18-3.94) and high CRP (>1 mg/dl) (OR 3.35, 95% CI 1.65-6.79). Plasma CRP levels increased with the number of MetS components present. Age, time since menopause and smoking had no influence, while hormone therapy reduced MetS risk (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.42-0.97).Conclusion Metabolic syndrome was highly prevalent among Brazilian postmenopausal women seeking gynecologic health care. Abdominal obesity, diabetes, hypertension and high CRP were strong MetS predictors and hormone therapy appeared to play a protective role for this condition.

Mild gestational hyperglycaemia as a risk factor for metabolic syndrome in pregnancy and adverse perinatal outcomes

Objective The aims of this study were to evaluate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS) in a cohort of pregnant women with a wide range of glucose tolerance, pre-pregnancy risk factors for MS during pregnancy and the effects of MS in the occurrence of adverse perinatal outcomes.Research Design and Methods One hundred and thirty six women with positive screening for gestational diabetes (GDM) were classified by two diagnostic methods: glycaemic profile and 100 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) as normoglycaemic, mild gestational hyperglycaemic, GDM, and overt GDM. Markers of insulin resistance were measured between 24-28 and 36th week of gestation, and 6 weeks after delivery.Results The prevalence of MS was 0; 20.0; 23.5 and 36.4% in normoglycaemic, mild hyperglycaemic, GDM and overt GDM groups, respectively. Previous history of GDM with or without insulin use, body mass index (BMI) >= 25, hypertension, family history of diabetes in first-degree relatives, non-Caucasian ethnicity, history of prematurity and polyhydramnios were statistically significant pre-pregnancy predictors for MS in the index pregnancy, that by its turn increased the occurrence of adverse perinatal outcomes (p = 0.01).Conclusions The prevalence of MS increases with the worsening of glucose tolerance and is an independent predictor of adverse perinatal outcomes; impaired glycaemic profile identifies pregnancies with important metabolic abnormalities that are linked to the occurrence of adverse perinatal outcomes even in the presence of a normal OGTT, in patients that are not currently classified as having GDM. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

DNA damage and aberrant crypt foci as putative biomarkers to evaluate the chemopreventive effect of annatto (Bixa orellana L.) in rat colon carcinogenesis

Chemoprevention opens new perspectives in the prevention of cancer and other degenerative diseases. Use of target-organ biological models at the histological and genetic levels can markedly facilitate the identification of such potential chemopreventive agents. Colon cancer is one of the highest incidence rates throughout the world and some evidences have indicated carotenoids as possible agents that decrease the risk of colorectal cancer. In the present study, we evaluate the activity of annatto (Bixa orellaria L.), a natural food colorant rich in carotenoid, on the formation of aberrant crypt foci (ACF) induced by dimethy1hydrazine (DMH) in rat colon. Further, we investigate, the effect of annatto on DMH-induced DNA damage, by the comet assay. Male Wistar rats were given s.c. injections of DMH (40 mg/kg body wt.) twice a week for 2 weeks to induce ACE They also received experimental diets containing annatto at 20, 200 or 1000 ppm for five 5 weeks before (pre-treatment), or 10 weeks after (post-treatment) DMH treatment. In both protocols the rats were sacrificed on week 15th. For the comet assay, the animals were fed with the same experimental diets for 2 weeks. Four hours before the sacrifice, the animals received an s.c. injection of DMH (40 mg/kg body wt.). Under such conditions, dietary administration of 1000 ppm annatto neither induce DNA damage in blood and colon cells nor aberrant crypt foci in rat distal colon. Conversely, annatto was successful in inhibiting the number of crypts/colon (animal), but not in the incidence of DMH-induced ACF, mainly when administered after DMH. However, no antigenotoxic effect was observed in colon cells. These findings suggest possible chemopreventive effects of annatto through their modulation of the cryptal cell proliferation but not at the initiation stage of colon carcinogenesis. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Calcium intake and its relationship with risk of overweight and obesity in adolescents

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Metabolic syndrome and dietary components are associated with coronary artery disease risk score in free-living adults: a cross-sectional study

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Prevalence and risk factors for urinary incontinence in healthy pregnant Brazilian women

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)