Belize: effects of climate change on agriculture

Incluye Bibliografía

Assessment of the damage caused by flood rains and landslides in association with hurricane Michelle, october 2001: implications for economic, social and environmental development

Preface This study was prepared for the Government of Jamaica following the significant physical damage and economic losses that the country sustained as a result of flood rains associated with the development of Hurricane Michelle. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) submitted a request for assistance in undertaking a social, environmental and economic impact assessment to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on 14 November 2001. ECLAC responded with haste and modified its work plan to accommodate the request. A request for training in the use of the ECLAC Methodology to be delivered to personnel in Jamaica was deferred until the first quarter of 2002, as it was impossible to mount such an initiative at such short notice. This appraisal considers the consequences of the three instances of heavy rainfall that brought on the severe flooding and loss of property and livelihoods. The study was prepared by three members of the ECLAC Natural Disaster Damage Assessment Team over a period of one week in order to comply with the request that it be presented to the Prime Minister on 3 December 2001. The team has endeavoured to complete a workload that would take two weeks with a team of 15 members working assiduously with data already prepared in preliminary form by the national emergency stakeholders. There is need for training in disaster assessment as evidenced by the data collected by the Jamaican officials engaged in the exercise. Their efforts in the future will be more focused and productive after they have received training in the use of the ECLAC Methodology. This study undertakes a sectoral analysis leading to an overall assessment of the damage. It appraises the macroeconomic and social effects and proposes some guidelines for action including mitigating actions subsequent to the devastation caused by the weather system. The team is grateful for the efforts of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM), the associated government ministries and agencies, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), the Planning Institute of Jamaica and the Inter American Development Bank (IDB) for assistance rendered to the team. Indeed, it is the recommendation of the team that STATIN is poised to play a pivotal role in any disaster damage assessment and should be taken on board in that regard. The direct and indirect damages have been assessed in accordance with the methodology developed by ECLAC (1). The results presented are based on the mission's estimates. The study incorporates the information made available to the team and evidence collected in interviews and visits to affected locations. It is estimated that the magnitude of the losses exceeds the country's capacity to address reparations and mitigation without serious dislocation of its development trajectory. The government may wish to approach the international community for assistance in this regard. This appraisal is therefore designed to provide the government and the international community with guidelines for setting national and regional priorities in rehabilitation and reconstruction or resettlement programmes. A purely economic conception of the problem would be limited. A more integrated approach would have a human face and consider the alleviation of human suffering in the affected areas while attending to the economic and fiscal fallout of the disaster. Questions of improved physical planning, watershed management, early warning, emergency response and structural preparedness for evacuation and sheltering the vulnerable population are seen as important considerations for the post disaster phase. Special attention and priority should be placed on including sustainability and increased governance criteria in making social and productive investments, and on allocating resources to the reinforcing and retrofitting of vulnerable infrastructure, basic lifelines and services as part of the reconstruction and rehabilitation strategy. The Jamaican society and government face the opportunity of undertaking action with the benefit of revised paradigms, embarking on institutional, legal and structural reforms to reduce economic, social and environmental vulnerability. The history of flood devastation in the very areas of Portland and St. Mary shows a recurrence of flooding. Accounts of flooding from the earliest recorded accounts pertaining to 1837 are available. Recurrences in 1937, 1940, 1943 and 2001 indicate an ever-present probability of recurrence of similar events. The Government may wish to consider the probable consequences of a part of its population living in flood plains and address its position vis-à­¶is land use and the probability of yet another recurrence of flood rains. (1) ECLAC/IDNDR, Manual for estimating the Socio-Economic Effects of Natural Disasters, May,1999.

Estimativas de valores econômicos para sistemas de recria e engorda de bovinos Nelore e cruzados

Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV

Infrastructure, integration and equity: The social impact of the health and public transportation infrastructure.

Academicians and practitioners generally agree that there is a positive correlation between more and better infrastructure and economic growth. From the broader perspective of development, attempts have been made in the literature to identify the different theoretical connections and the empirical patterns that link infrastructure to productivity, on the one hand, and those that link it to social inclusion and equity, on the other hand. Infrastructure contributes to development in different ways. The capital involved is not homogeneous, nor is its effect on the distributive aspects. Water and sanitation have a particularly strong association with the health of the general population and with infant mortality, early childhood health, learning abilities and the acquisition of labour skills. With respect to transportation, the reduction of costs and travel times has a direct economic impact on economic activities of production and domestic and international distribution. That infrastructure also has a social and distributive role to play by reducing the number of fatal accidents and serious injuries in the sectors that are naturally most susceptible to them, namely, the poor. Under the broad umbrella of infrastructure, we can include a number of facilities that make possible the provision of certain services. Some of these facilities require very significant fixed capital investments; some of them are residential, while others are not necessarily. What they all have in common is the existence of networks (transportation, wiring, pipelines) and a strong convergence of physical capital and/or technology, as well as the need for major investments in periodic maintenance.

The impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

The main aim of this study is to estimate the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A typical tourism demand function, with tourist arrivals as the dependent variable, is used in the analysis. To establish the baseline, the period under analysis is 1989-2007 and the independent variables are destination country GDP per capita and consumer price index, source country GDP, oil prices to proxy transportation costs between source and destination countries. At this preliminary stage the climate variables are used separately to augment the tourism demand function to establish a relationship, if any, among the variables. Various econometric models (single OLS models for each country, pooled regression, GMM estimation and random effects panel models) were considered in an attempt to find the best way to model the data. The best fit for the data (1989-2007) is the random effects panel data model augmented by both climate variables, i.e. temperature and precipitation. Projections of all variables in the model for the 2008-2100 period were done using forecasting techniques. Projections for the climate variables were undertaken by INSMET. The cost of climate change to the tourism sector was estimated under three scenarios: A2, B2 and BAU (the mid-point of the A2 and B2 scenarios). The estimated costs to tourism for the Caribbean subregion under the three scenarios are all very high and ranges from US$43.9 billion under the B2 scenario to US$46.3 billion under the BAU scenario.

The impact of climate change on the macroeconomy in the Caribbean

In this study, an attempt is made to assess the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A methodological approach proposed by Dell et al. (2008) is used in preference to the traditional Integrated Assessment Models. The evolution of climate variables and of the macroeconomy of each of the nine countries over the period 1970 to 2006 is analyzed and preliminary evidence of a relationship between the macroeconomy and climate change is examined. The preliminary investigation uses correlation, Granger causality and simple regression methods. The preliminary evidence suggests that there is some relationship but that the direction of causation between the macroeconomy and the climate variables is indeterminate. The main analysis involves the use of a panel data (random effects) model which fits the historical data (1971-2007) very well. Projections of economic growth from 2008 to 2099 are done on the basis of four climate scenarios: the International Panel on Climate Change A2, B2, a hybrid A2B2 (the mid-point of A2 and B2), and a ‘baseline’ or ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, which assumes that the growth rate in the period 2008-2099 is the same as the average growth rate over the period 1971-2007. The best average growth rate is under the B2 scenario, followed by the hybrid A2B2 and A2 scenarios, in that order. Although negative growth rates eventually dominate, they are largely positive for a long time. The projections all display long-run secular decline in growth rates notwithstanding short-run upward trends, including some very sharp ones, moving eventually from declining positive rates to negative ones. The costs associated with the various scenarios are all quite high, rising to as high as a present value (2007 base year) of US$14 billion in 2099 (constant 1990 prices) for the B2 scenario and US$21 billion for the BAU scenario. These costs were calculated on the basis of very conservative estimates of the cost of environmental degradation. Mitigation and adaptation costs are likely to be quite high though a small fraction of projected total investment costs.

The economics of climate change in the Caribbean

The present volume captures the results of the studies conducted during Phase 2 of the RECCC project to date. Chapter 1 provides the contextual framework within which the assessments were conducted and Chapter 2 focuses on the emissions scenarios as set out by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results of the economic assessments of the impacts of climate change on the agricultural, coastal and marine, energy and transportation, health, freshwater resources and tourism sectors in the Caribbean subregion are presented in Chapters 3 to 9, respectively. The report concludes with an examination of adaptation strategies and key policy recommendations for policymakers, in Chapter 10.

Utilização de procedimentos multivariados no consumo de água e energia elétrica em habitações sociais com sistema de aquecimento solar

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

The Economic Impacts of Tourism in Ouro Preto, MG, Brazil

The tourism spending like other activities has direct and secondary effects on the economy, and presents complex interaction with other activities deserving a special treatment for measuring its contribution to the global result of production and consumption. In this paper, it is used the Money Generation Model to measure the global economic impact of tourism sales in Ouro Preto, this method is not so limited by the data and it is able to produce good approximations to reality. It was not possible to adopt the WTO methodology due to data limitation. The results revealed the real importance of tourism for Ouro Preto, representing up to 10.4% of GDP in 2002, up to 21.8% of tax revenues in 2004, and approximately 11% of the region’s population in 2002 was related to tourism sales. Some actions can be outlined from these results in order to illustrate the current economic reality of the tourism in Ouro Preto. It is also possible to improve the tourist planning accomplished by the local City Hall in a coherent way with the economic results generated by the tourism.

Análise econômica da eficiência da produção de cana-de-açúcar de fornecedores do Estado do Paraná

The sugarcane industry has been important in the Brazilian economy since the colonial period. The search for alternative energy sources has gained more prominence, by offering a product generating clean energy. With the opening of the Brazilian economy, the sector has undergone transformations operating in a free market environment requiring greater efficiency and competitiveness of those involved in order to stay in business. This scenario is producer/supplier independent, and social aspects related to their stay in the market. Although its share in sugarcane production is smaller than the plant itself, it is still considerable having reached around 20% to 25% in 2008 by employing labor, also production factors had an important economic impact in the regions where they operate. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the economic efficiency and production of independent sugarcane producers in the state of Paraná through the DEA model. The Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a nonparametric technique that, using linear programming constructs production borders from production units that employ similar technological processes to transform inputs into outputs.The results showed that of the total surveyed, 13.56% had maximum efficiency (an efficiency score equal to 1). The average efficiency under variable returns to scale (BCC-DEA) was 0.71024. One can thus conclude that for the majority of the samples collected, it might be better use of available resources to the in order to obtain the economic efficiency of the production process.

SEASONAL, HABITAT AND SEX-SPECIFIC PATTERNS OF FOOD UTILIZATION BY RED-WINGED BLACKBIRDS (Agelaius phoeniceous) IN EASTERN ONTARIO AND THEIR ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE

Crop depredation by red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) causes serious economic losses to agricultural crops each year in both Canada and the United States. The concentration of vulnerable, monocultural crops, particularly corn, during periods when large flocks of blackbirds congregate in roosting areas prior to migration has invariably led to heavy feeding pressure (Stone et al., 1972; Wiens and Dyer, 1975; Tyler et al., 1978). Efforts to reduce damage levels by mechanical and chemical dispersal agents have been largely unsuccessful, at least in terms of a long-term solution to the problem. Recently, the lethal control of blackbird populations using surfactants has been proposed. However, the potential repercussions of the removal of substantial numbers of birds from northern breeding areas are virtually unknown (Robertson et al., 1978). Much of the research dealing with the feeding ecology of red-winged blackbirds has been limited to fall and winter periods when large aggregations of birds are actively involved in crop depredation (Goddad, 1969; Williams, 1976; Dolbeer et al., 1978) or pose a potential health hazard (Monroe and Cronholm, 1976). However, what is not known is the degree to which the removal of deleterious weed seed and insect pests cited in several studies (Bird and Smith, 1964; Mott et al., 1972; Robertson et al., 1978) might be of potential value to agriculture. The issue of whether the benefits derived from redwing foraging compensate for the negative aspects associated with crop depredation and health hazards remains largely unresolved. The present study attempted to evaluate the pest status of this species using diet information derived from food habits analysis conducted during the residency of red- winged blackbirds in a northern breeding area. By determining how the feeding ecology of red-winged blackbirds varies on a seasonal basis, among different breeding habitats and between sexes, we hoped to determine more realistically which segments of the population might be responsible for the greatest benefits or detriments and, thereby, more accurately evaluate the economic impact of the species as a whole. To achieve this aim, the study provides an accurate description of the common insects and weed pests utilized by redwings. By determining the relative proportions of those items known to be detrimental, we hoped to illustrate, at least qualitatively, the degree to which redwing foraging is comprised of both beneficial and harmful components.

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact of saxagliptine as additional therapy to metformin for the treatment of diabetes mellitus type 2 in the Brazilian private health system

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact of saxagliptine as additional therapy to metformin for the treatment of diabetes mellitus type 2 in the Brazilian private health system Objectives: To compare costs and clinical benefits of three additional therapies to metformin (MF) for patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2). Methods: A discrete event simulation model seas built to estimate the cost-utility ratio (cost per quality-adjusted life years [QALY)) of saxagliptine as an additional therapy to MF when compared to rosiglitazone or pioglitazone. A budget impact model (BIM) was built to simulate the economic impact of saxagliptine use in the context of the Brazilian private health system. Results: The acquiring medication costs for the hypothetical patient group analyzed in a time frame of three years, were R$ 10,850,185, R$ 14,836,265 and R$ 14,679,099 for saxagliptine, pioglitazone and rosiglitazone, respectively. Saxagliptine showed lower costs and greater effectiveness in both comparisons, with projected savings for the first three years of R$ 3,874 and R$ 3,996, respectively. The BIM estimated cumulative savings of R$ 417,958 with the repayment of saxagliptine in three years from the perspective of a health plan with 1,000,000 covered individuals. Conclusion: From the perspective of private paying source, the projection is that adding saxagliptine with MF save costs when compared with the addition of rosiglitazone or pioglitazone in patients with DM2 that have not reached the HbA1c goal with metformin monotherapy. The BIM of including saxagliptine in the reimbursement lists of health plans indicated significant savings on the three-year horizon.

Alla ricerca della sostenibilità: lo sviluppo dell'agricoltura dall'Unità d'Italia alla Green Economy

L’elaborato finale presentato per la tesi di Dottorato analizza e riconduce a unitarietà, per quanto possibile, alcune delle attività di ricerca da me svolte durante questi tre anni, il cui filo conduttore è l'impatto ambientale delle attività umane e la promozione dello sviluppo sostenibile. Il mio filone di ricerca è stato improntato, dal punto di vista di politica economica, sull'analisi storica dello sviluppo del settore agricolo dall'Unità d'Italia ai giorni nostri e dei cambiamenti avvenuti in contemporanea nel contesto socio-economico e territoriale nazionale, facendo particolare riferimento alle tematiche legate ai consumi e alla dipendenza energetica ed all'impatto ambientale. Parte della mia ricerca è stata, infatti, incentrata sull'analisi dello sviluppo della Green Economy, in particolare per quanto riguarda il settore agroalimentare e la produzione di fonti di energia rinnovabile. Enfasi viene posta sia sulle politiche implementate a livello comunitario e nazionale, sia sul cambiamento dei consumi, in particolare per quanto riguarda gli acquisti di prodotti biologici. La Green Economy è vista come fattore di sviluppo e opportunità per uscire dall'attuale contesto di crisi economico-finanziaria. Crisi, che è strutturale e di carattere duraturo, affiancata da una crescente problematica ambientale dovuta all'attuale modello produttivo, fortemente dipendente dai combustibili fossili. Difatti la necessità di cambiare paradigma produttivo promuovendo la sostenibilità è visto anche in ottica di mitigazione del cambiamento climatico e dei suoi impatti socio-economici particolare dal punto di vista dei disastri ambientali. Questo punto è analizzato anche in termini di sicurezza internazionale e di emergenza umanitaria, con riferimento al possibile utilizzo da parte delle organizzazioni di intervento nei contesti di emergenza di tecnologie alimentate da energia rinnovabile. Dando così una risposta Green ad una problematica esacerbata dall'impatto dello sviluppo delle attività umane.

Treatment failure in pneumonia: Impact of antibiotic treatment and cost analysis

The aim of this study was to investigate treatment failure (TF) in hospitalised community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) patients with regard to initial antibiotic treatment and economic impact. CAP patients were included in two open, prospective multicentre studies assessing the direct costs for in-patient treatment. Patients received treatment either with moxifloxacin (MFX) or a nonstandardised antibiotic therapy. Any change in antibiotic therapy after >72 h of treatment to a broadened antibiotic spectrum was considered as TF. Overall, 1,236 patients (mean ± SD age 69.6 ± 16.8 yrs, 691 (55.9%) male) were included. TF occurred in 197 (15.9%) subjects and led to longer hospital stay (15.4 ± 7.3 days versus 9.8 ± 4.2 days; p < 0.001) and increased median treatment costs (€2,206 versus €1,284; p<0.001). 596 (48.2%) patients received MFX and witnessed less TF (10.9% versus 20.6%; p < 0.001). After controlling for confounders in multivariate analysis, adjusted risk of TF was clearly reduced in MFX as compared with β-lactam monotherapy (adjusted OR for MFX 0.43, 95% CI 0.27-0.68) and was more comparable with a β-lactam plus macrolide combination (BLM) (OR 0.68, 95% CI 0.38-1.21). In hospitalised CAP, TF is frequent and leads to prolonged hospital stay and increased treatment costs. Initial treatment with MFX or BLM is a possible strategy to prevent TF, and may thus reduce treatment costs.

Impact of low vision on well-being in 10 European countries

BACKGROUND: Because of the growing life expectancy in developed countries and the exponential increase in vision loss with increasing age, a growing number of elderly persons will eventually suffer from visual impairment and blindness. This paper describes the association between self-reported vision and well-being in individuals aged 50 years and older and their families. METHODS: Using binary logistic regressions on data from the 2004 Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we analysed the association between self-reported corrected vision in general, corrected distance vision and corrected reading vision on 11 variables capturing emotional well-being, future hopes and perspectives, and concentration on daily activities. RESULTS: For 22,486 individuals from 10 European countries, aged 64.23 +/- 10.52 years, lower vision was associated with a highly significant negative impact on all measured aspects of well-being. CONCLUSIONS: These data from a large population base in Europe provide evidence that persons with low vision have a higher probability of concentration problems during reading and entertainment; losing interest and enjoyment in their activities; feeling fatigued, irritable, sad, and tearful; having less hope for the future; and wishing for death. Effective measures of early detection, prevention, rehabilitation, education and research, as well as a holistic view of a patient, could help counter these problems, thereby improving mental and physical health and reducing the economic impact of low vision.