Decision making in patients with acute abdominal pain at a university and at a rural hospital: Does the value of abdominal sonography differ?

Introduction and objectives Abdominal sonography is regarded as a quick and effective diagnostic tool for acute abdominal pain in emergency medicine. However, final diagnosis is usually based on a combination of various clinical examinations and radiography. The role of sonography in the decision making process at a hospital with advanced imaging capabilities versus a hospital with limited imaging capabilities but more experienced clinicians is unclear. The aim of this pilot study was to assess the relative importance of sonography and its influence on the clinical management of acute abdominal pain, at two Swiss hospitals, a university hospital (UH) and a rural hospital (RH). Methods 161 patients were prospectively examined clinically. Blood tests and sonography were performed in all patients. Patients younger than 18 years and patients with trauma were excluded. In both hospitals, the diagnosis before and after ultrasonography was registered in a protocol. Certainty of the diagnosis was expressed on a scale from 0% to 100%. The decision processes used to manage patients before and after they underwent sonography were compared. The diagnosis at discharge was compared to the diagnosis 2 – 6 weeks thereafter. Results Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of sonography were high: 94%, 88% and 91%, respectively. At the UH, management after sonography changed in only 14% of cases, compared to 27% at the RH. Additional tests were more frequently added at the UH (30%) than at the RH (18%), but had no influence on the decision making process-whether to operate or not. At the UH, the diagnosis was missed in one (1%) patient, but in three (5%) patients at the RH. No significant difference was found between the two hospitals in frequency of management changes due to sonography or in the correctness of the diagnosis. Conclusion Knowing that sonography has high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy in the diagnosis of acute abdominal pain, one would assume it would be an important diagnostic tool, particularly at the RH, where tests/imaging studies are rare. However, our pilot study indicates that sonography provides important diagnostic information in only a minority of patients with acute abdominal pain. Sonography was more important at the rural hospital than at the university hospital. Further costly examinations are generally ordered for verification, but these additional tests change the final treatment plan in very few patients.

Self-assessment insufficiently predicts performance in emergency skills

Background: Residents demonstrate a broad range of performance levels for clinical skills, with some at an inadequate level. Adequate self-assessment is important for life long learning. However, its accuracy is questioned extensively. The aim of this study was to evaluate how far the residents’ self-assessment predicts their performance in an expert assessment of emergency skills. Summary of work: Twelve skills were identified as being relevant for the emergency duties of residents in smaller hospitals. Fifteen first-year residents from the departments of internal medicine and general surgery at a district hospital rated their performance on a questionnaire (self-assessment). This was followed by a structured, practical in vivo assessment by an anaesthesiologist (expert assessment). For both, a visual analogue scale from 0 to 10 was used, on which 0 stands for novice and 10 for expert. Predictive validity was described by Spearman’s correlation, which was significant in 3 out of 12 skills only. Median correlation (r) was 0.50 (range 0.16 to 0.93). Conclusion: At the beginning of postgraduate training, self-assessment alone is not sufficient to guide self-directed learning. Take-home message: At the beginning of their residency, physicians need structured feedback in emergency skills which can be offered by anaesthesiologists.

Dual dispatch early defibrillation in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in a mixed urban–rural population

Aims The effects of a system based on minimally trained first responders (FR) dispatched simultaneously with the emergency medical services (EMS) of the local hospital in a mixed urban and rural area in Northwestern Switzerland were examined. Methods and results In this prospective study 500 voluntary fire fighters received a 4-h training in basic-life-support using automated-external-defibrillation (AED). FR and EMS were simultaneously dispatched in a two-tier rescue system. During the years 2001–2008, response times, resuscitation interventions and outcomes were monitored. 1334 emergencies were included. The FR reached the patients (mean age 60.4 ± 19 years; 65% male) within 6 ± 3 min after emergency calls compared to 12 ± 5 min by the EMS (p < 0.0001). Seventy-six percent of the 297 OHCAs occurred at home. Only 3 emergencies with resuscitation attempts occurred at the main railway station equipped with an on-site AED. FR were on the scene before arrival of the EMS in 1166 (87.4%) cases. Of these, the FR used AED in 611 patients for monitoring or defibrillation. CPR was initiated by the FR in 164 (68.9% of 238 resuscitated patients). 124 patients were defibrillated, of whom 93 (75.0%) were defibrillated first by the FR. Eighteen patients (of whom 13 were defibrillated by the FR) were discharged from hospital in good neurological condition. Conclusions Minimally trained fire fighters integrated in an EMS as FR contributed substantially to an increase of the survival rate of OHCAs in a mixed urban and rural area.

Dog Bite Injuries: Primary and Secondary Emergency Department Presentations-A Retrospective Cohort Study

Dog bites in humans are a complex problem, embracing both public health and animal welfare. The primary aim of this study is to examine primary and secondary presentations related to dog bite injuries in adults. Methods. We retrospectively assessed all adult patients admitted with a dog bite injury to the Emergency Department of Bern University Hospital. Results. A total of 431 patients were eligible for the study. Forty-nine (11.4%) of all patients were admitted with secondary presentations. Bites to the hands were most common (177, 41.1%). All patients (47, 100%) with secondary presentations were admitted because of signs of infection. The median time since the dog bite was 3.8 days (SD 3.9, range 1–21). Thirty-one patients had already been treated with antibiotic; coamoxicillin was the most common primary antibiotic therapy (27/47 patients, 57.4%). Patients with injuries to the hand were at increased risk of secondary presentations (OR 2.08, 95% CI 1.21–3.55, < 0.006). Conclusion. Dog bite injuries to the hands are a major problem. They often lead to infectious complications. Immediate antibiotic therapy should carefully be evaluated for each patient.

The diabetic child in the emergency room

The WHO announced diabetes mellitus as one of the main threats to human health in the 21st century. In children and adolescents the prevalence of both the autoimmune type 1 and the obesity-related type 2 diabetes is increasing. Common to all types of diabetes is an absolute or relative lack of insulin to keep glucose homeostasis under control. Thus children and adolescents with newly diagnosed diabetes present with hyperglycemia which is often accompanied by ketoacidosis bearing the risk of cerebral edema. Children and adolescents with known diabetes treated with insulin or orale antidiabetic agents may also suffer from hyperglycemia or even ketoacidosis during times of non-compliance with diet and drugs or during concomitant illnesses. Hyperglycemia with ketoacidosis is an emergency situation for which patients need to be admitted to the next hospital for administration of insulin, fluids and potassium. In contrast, insulin treatment in diabetic patients may also lead to a hypoglycemia, the sudden drop in blood glucose, at any moment. Thus recognition and correction of mild hypoglycemia should be familiar to every diabetic child and their caretaker. Severe hypoglycemia with or without seizures may bring the diabetic child in a sudden emergency situation for which the administration of glucagon intramuscularly or glucose intravenously is mandatory. After every severe hypoglycemia the insulin and diet regimen of the diabetic child or adolescent must be reviewed with the diabetes specialist. For unexplained hypoglycemia or major treatment adjustments the diabetic child or adolescent may need to be readmitted to the diabetic ward of a hospital to avoid repeat, potentially life-threatening hypoglycemia.

Image and imaging an emergency department: expense and benefit of different quality assessment methods

Introduction. In this era of high-tech medicine, it is becoming increasingly important to assess patient satisfaction. There are several methods to do so, but these differ greatly in terms of cost, time, and labour and external validity. The aim of this study is to describe and compare the structure and implementation of different methods to assess the satisfaction of patients in an emergency department. Methods. The structure and implementation of the different methods to assess patient satisfaction were evaluated on the basis of a 90-minute standardised interview. Results. We identified a total of six different methods in six different hospitals. The average number of patients assessed was 5012, with a range from 230 (M5) to 20 000 patients (M2). In four methods (M1, M3, M5, and M6), the questionnaire was composed by a specialised external institute. In two methods, the questionnaire was created by the hospital itself (M2, M4).The median response rate was 58.4% (range 9-97.8%). With a reminder, the response rate increased by 60% (M3). Conclusion. The ideal method to assess patient satisfaction in the emergency department setting is to use a patient-based, in-emergency department-based assessment of patient satisfaction, planned and guided by expert personnel.

High-Sensitive Troponin Measurement in Emergency Department Patients Presenting with Syncope: A Retrospective Analysis

OBJECTIVE To study the relevance of high-sensitive troponin measurements in the acute workup in patients admitted to the emergency department of a large university hospital due to syncope. METHODS In this retrospective study all patients admitted to the emergency department because of syncope of the Inselspital, University Hospital Bern between 01 August 2010 and 31 October 2012, with serial determination of high-sensitive troponin (baseline and three hours control) were included. Of all identified patients we obtained data on demographics, laboratory data, ECG as well as on outcome. A change in high-sensitive troponin in the three hours control of +/-30% compared to baseline was considered significant. RESULTS A total of 121 patients with a mean age of 67 years (SD 16) were included in the study. 79 patients (65%) were male and 42 (35%) were female. There was no significant difference in the median high sensitive-troponin level at baseline and in the three hours control (0.01 mcg/L [0.003 to 0.022] versus 0.011 mcg/L [0.003 to 0.022], p = 0.47). Median percent change in high-sensitive troponin level between baseline and control was 0% (-9.1 to 5). 51 patients (42%) had elevated high-sensitive troponin levels at baseline with 7 patients (6%) showing a dynamic of +/-30% change from the baseline measurement in the 3 hours control. 3 of these patients received coronary angiography due to the dynamic in high-sensitive troponin, none of whom needed intervention for coronary revascularization. CONCLUSIONS On basis of the current study, where no single patient took benefit from determination of high-sensitive troponin, measurement of cardiac troponins should be reserved for patients with syncope presenting with symptoms suggestive for the presence of an acute cardiac syndrome.

Drug-related emergency department visits by elderly patients presenting with non-specific complaints

BACKGROUND Since drug-related emergency department (ED) visits are common among older adults, the objectives of our study were to identify the frequency of drug-related problems (DRPs) among patients presenting to the ED with non-specific complaints (NSC), such as generalized weakness and to evaluate responsible drug classes. METHODS Delayed type cross-sectional diagnostic study with a prospective 30 day follow-up in the ED of the University Hospital Basel, Switzerland. From May 2007 until April 2009, all non-trauma patients presenting to the ED with an Emergency Severity Index (ESI) of 2 or 3 were screened and included, if they presented with non-specific complaints. After having obtained complete 30-day follow-up, two outcome assessors reviewed all available information, judged whether the initial presentation was a DRP and compared their judgment with the initial ED diagnosis. Acute morbidity ("serious condition") was allocated to individual cases according to predefined criteria. RESULTS The study population consisted of 633 patients with NSC. Median age was 81 years (IQR 72/87), and the mean Charlson comorbidity index was 2.5 (IQR 1/4). DRPs were identified in 77 of the 633 cases (12.2%). At the initial assessment, only 40% of the DRPs were correctly identified. 64 of the 77 identified DRPs (83%) fulfilled the criteria "serious condition". Polypharmacy and certain drug classes (thiazides, antidepressants, benzodiazepines, anticonvulsants) were associated with DRPs. CONCLUSION Elderly patients with non-specific complaints need to be screened systematically for drug-related problems. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00920491.

Ambulatory care adverse events and preventable adverse events leading to a hospital admission.

BACKGROUND: Most healthcare in the US is delivered in the ambulatory care setting, but the epidemiology of errors and adverse events in ambulatory care is understudied. METHODS: Using the population-based data from the Colorado and Utah Medical Practices Study, we identified adverse events that occurred in an ambulatory care setting and led to hospital admission. Proportions with 95% CIs are reported. RESULTS: We reviewed 14,700-hospital discharge records and found 587 adverse events of which 70 were ambulatory care adverse events (AAEs) and 31 were ambulatory care preventable adverse events (APAEs). When weighted to the general population, there were 2608 AAEs and 1296 (44.3%) APAEs in Colorado and Utah, USA, in 1992. APAEs occurred most commonly in physicians' offices (43.1%, range 46.8-27.8), the emergency department (32.3%, 46.1-18.5) and at home (13.1%, 23.1-3.1). APAEs in day surgery were less common (7.1%, 13.6-0.6) but caused the greatest harm to patients. The types of APAEs were broadly distributed among missed or delayed diagnoses (36%, 50.2-21.8), surgery (24.1%, 36.7-11.5), non-surgical procedures (14.6%, 25.0-4.2), medication (13.1%, 23.1-3.1) and therapeutic events (12.3%, 22.0-2.6). Overall, 10% of the APAEs resulted in serious permanent injury or death. The proportion of APAEs that resulted in death was 31.8% for general internal medicine, 22.5% for family practice and 16.7% for emergency medicine. CONCLUSION: An estimated 75,000 hospitalisations per year are due to preventable adverse events that occur in outpatient settings in the US, resulting in 4839 serious permanent injuries and 2587 deaths.

Emergency stabilization of the pelvic ring: Clinical comparison between three different techniques

Background: Emergency devices for pelvic ring stabilization include circumferential sheets, pelvic binders, and c-clamps. Our knowledge of the outcome of these techniques is currently based on limited information. Methods: Using the dataset of the German Pelvic Trauma Registry, demographic and injury-associated characteristics as well as the outcome of pelvic fracture patients after sheet, binder, and c-clamp treatment was compared. Outcome parameters included transfusion requirement of packed red blood cells, length of hospital stay, mortality, and incidence of lethal pelvic bleeding. Results: Two hundred seven of 6137 (3.4%) patients documented in the German Pelvic Trauma Registry between April 30th 2004 and January 19th 2012 were treated by sheets, binders, or c-clamps. In most cases, c-clamps (69%) were used, followed by sheets (16%), and binders (15%). The median age was significantly lower in patients treated with binders than in patients treated with sheets or c-clamps (26 vs. 47 vs. 42 years, p = 0.01). Sheet wrapping was associated with a significantly higher incidence of lethal pelvic bleeding compared to binder or c-clamp stabilization (23% vs. 4% vs. 8%). No significant differences between the study groups were found in sex, fracture type, blood haemoglobin concentration, arterial blood pressure, Injury Severity Score, the incidence of additional pelvic packing and arterial embolization, need of red blood cell transfusion, length of hospitalisation, and mortality. Conclusions: The data suggest that emergency stabilization of the pelvic ring by binders and c-clamps is associated with a lower incidence of lethal pelvic bleeding compared to sheet wrapping.

Factors determining the use of universal precautions by emergency department nurses

The Health Belief Model (HBM) provided the theoretical framework for examining Universal Precautions (UP) compliance factors by Emergency Department nurses. A random sample of Emergency Nurses Association (ENA) clinical nurses (n = 900) from five states (New York, New Jersey, California, Texas, and Florida), were surveyed to explore the factors related to their decision to comply with UP. Five-hundred-ninety-eight (598) useable questionnaires were analyzed. The responders were primarily female (84.9%), hospital based (94.6%), staff nurses (66.6%) who had a mean 8.5 years of emergency nursing experience. The nurses represented all levels of hospitals from rural (4.5%) to urban trauma centers (23.7%). The mean UP training hours was 3.0 (range 0-38 hours). Linear regression was used to analyze the four hypotheses. The first hypothesis evaluating perceived susceptibility and seriousness with reported UP use was not significant (p = $>$.05). Hypothesis 2 tested perceived benefits with internal and external barriers. Both perceived benefits and internal barriers as well as the overall regression were significant (F = 26.03, p = $<$0.001). Hypothesis 3 which tested modifying factors, cues to action, select demographic variables, and the main effects of the HBM with self reported UP compliance, was also significant (F = 12.39, p = $<$0.001). The additive effects were tested by use of a stepwise regression that assessed the contribution of each of the significant variables. The regression was significant (F = 12.39, p = $<$0.001) and explained 18% of the total variance. In descending order of contribution, the significant variables related to compliance were: internal barriers (t = $-$6.267; p = $<$0.001) such as the perception that because of the nature of the emergency care environment there is sometimes inadequate time to put on UP; cues to action (t = 3.195; p = 0.001) such as posted reminder signs or verbal reminders from peers; the number of Universal Precautions training hours (t = 3.667; p = $<$0.001) meaning that as the number of training hours increase so does compliance; perceived benefits (t = 3.466; p = 0.001) such as believing that UP will provide adequate barrier protection; and perceived susceptibility (t = 2.880; p = 0.004) such as feeling that they are at risk of exposure. ^

Risk, outcomes, and cost of emergency center visits in cancer patients

Cancer is a chronic disease that often necessitates recurrent hospitalizations, a costly pattern of medical care utilization. In chronically ill patients, most readmissions are for treatment of the same condition that caused the preceding hospitalization. There is concern that rather than reducing costs, earlier discharge may shift costs from the initial hospitalization to emergency center visits. ^ This is the first descriptive study to measure the incidence of emergency center visits (ECVs) after hospitalization at The University of M. D. Anderson Cancer Center (UTMDACC), to identify the risk factors for and outcomes of these ECVs, and to compare 30-day all-cause mortality and costs for episodes of care with and without ECVs. ^ We identified all hospitalizations at UTMDACC with admission dates from September 1, 1993 through August 31, 1997 which met inclusion criteria. Data were electronically obtained primarily from UTMDACC's institutional database. Demographic factors, clinical factors, duration of the index hospitalization, method of payment for care, and year of hospitalization study were variables determined for each hospitalization. ^ The overall incidence of ECVs was 18%. Forty-five percent of ECVs resulted in hospital readmission (8% of all hospitalizations). In 1% of ECVs the patient died in the emergency center, and for the remaining 54% of ECVs the patient was discharged home. Risk factors for ECVs were marital status, type of index hospitalization, cancer type, and duration of the index hospitalization. The overall 30-day all-cause mortality rate was 8.6% for hospitalizations with an ECV and 5.3% for those without an ECV. In all subgroups, the 30-day all-cause mortality rate was higher for groups with ECVs than for those without ECVs. The most important factor increasing cost was having an ECV. In all patient subgroups, the cost per episode of care with an ECV was at least 1.9 times the cost per episode without an ECV. ^ The higher costs and poorer outcomes of episodes of care with ECVs and hospital readmissions suggest that interventions to avoid these ECVs or mitigate their costs are needed. Further research is needed to improve understanding of the methodological issues involved in relation to health care issues for cancer patients. ^

State of Emergency Medicine in Switzerland: a national profile of emergency departments in 2006

BACKGROUND Emergency departments (EDs) are an essential component of any developed health care system. There is, however, no national description of EDs in Switzerland. Our objective was to establish the number and location of EDs, patient visits and flow, medical staff and organization, and capabilities in 2006, as a benchmark before emergency medicine became a subspecialty in Switzerland. METHODS In 2007, we started to create an inventory of all hospital-based EDs with a preliminary list from the Swiss Society of Emergency and Rescue Medicine that was improved with input from ED physicians nationwide. EDs were eligible if they offered acute care 24 h per day, 7 days per week. Our goal was to have 2006 data from at least 80% of all EDs. The survey was initiated in 2007 and the 80% threshold reached in 2012. RESULTS In 2006, Switzerland had a total of 138 hospital-based EDs. The number of ED visits was 1.475 million visits or 20 visits per 100 inhabitants. The median number of visits was 8,806 per year; 25% of EDs admitted 5,000 patients or less, 31% 5,001-10,000 patients, 26% 10,001-20,000 patients, and 17% >20,000 patients per year. Crowding was reported by 84% of EDs with >20,000 visits/year. Residents with limited experience provided care for 77% of visits. Imaging was not immediately available for all patients: standard X-ray within 15 min (70%), non-contrast head CT scan within 15 min (38%), and focused sonography for trauma (70%); 67% of EDs had an intensive care unit within the hospital, and 87% had an operating room always available. CONCLUSIONS Swiss EDs were significant providers of health care in 2006. Crowding, physicians with limited experience, and the heterogeneity of emergency care capabilities were likely threats to the ubiquitous and consistent delivery of quality emergency care, particularly for time-sensitive conditions. Our survey establishes a benchmark to better understand future improvements in Swiss emergency care.

Optimizing Triage and Hospitalization in Adult General Medical Emergency Patients. The Triage Project

Background: Patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) currently face inacceptable delays in initial treatment, and long, costly hospital stays due to suboptimal initial triage and site-of-care decisions. Accurate ED triage should focus not only on initial treatment priority, but also on prediction of medical risk and nursing needs to improve site-of-care decisions and to simplify early discharge management. Different triage scores have been proposed, such as the Manchester triage system (MTS). Yet, these scores focus only on treatment priority, have suboptimal performance and lack validation in the Swiss health care system. Because the MTS will be introduced into clinical routine at the Kantonsspital Aarau, we propose a large prospective cohort study to optimize initial patient triage. Specifically, the aim of this trial is to derive a three-part triage algorithm to better predict (a) treatment priority; (b) medical risk and thus need for in-hospital treatment; (c) post-acute care needs of patients at the most proximal time point of ED admission. Methods/design: Prospective, observational, multicenter, multi-national cohort study. We will include all consecutive medical patients seeking ED care into this observational registry. There will be no exclusions except for non-adult and non-medical patients. Vital signs will be recorded and left over blood samples will be stored for later batch analysis of blood markers. Upon ED admission, the post-acute care discharge score (PACD) will be recorded. Attending ED physicians will adjudicate triage priority based on all available results at the time of ED discharge to the medical ward. Patients will be reassessed daily during the hospital course for medical stability and readiness for discharge from the nurses and if involved social workers perspective. To assess outcomes, data from electronic medical records will be used and all patients will be contacted 30 days after hospital admission to assess vital and functional status, re-hospitalization, satisfaction with care and quality of life measures. We aim to include between 5000 and 7000 patients over one year of recruitment to derive the three-part triage algorithm. The respective main endpoints were defined as (a) initial triage priority (high vs. low priority) adjudicated by the attending ED physician at ED discharge, (b) adverse 30 day outcome (death or intensive care unit admission) within 30 days following ED admission to assess patients risk and thus need for in-hospital treatment and (c) post acute care needs after hospital discharge, defined as transfer of patients to a post-acute care institution, for early recognition and planning of post-acute care needs. Other outcomes are time to first physician contact, time to initiation of adequate medical therapy, time to social worker involvement, length of hospital stay, reasons fordischarge delays, patient’s satisfaction with care, overall hospital costs and patients care needs after returning home. Discussion: Using a reliable initial triage system for estimating initial treatment priority, need for in-hospital treatment and post-acute care needs is an innovative and persuasive approach for a more targeted and efficient management of medical patients in the ED. The proposed interdisciplinary , multi-national project has unprecedented potential to improve initial triage decisions and optimize resource allocation to the sickest patients from admission to discharge. The algorithms derived in this study will be compared in a later randomized controlled trial against a usual care control group in terms of resource use, length of hospital stay, overall costs and patient’s outcomes in terms of mortality, re-hospitalization, quality of life and satisfaction with care.

Validation and reclassification of MGAP and GAP in hospital settings using data from the Trauma Audit and Research Network.

BACKGROUND Recently, two simple clinical scores were published to predict survival in trauma patients. Both scores may successfully guide major trauma triage, but neither has been independently validated in a hospital setting. METHODS This is a cohort study with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome to validate two new trauma scores-Mechanism, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Age, and Pressure (MGAP) score and GCS, Age and Pressure (GAP) score-using data from the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network. First, an assessment of discrimination, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration, comparing mortality rates with those originally published, were performed. Second, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios for prognostic score performance. Third, we propose new cutoffs for the risk categories. RESULTS A total of 79,807 adult (≥16 years) major trauma patients (2000-2010) were included; 5,474 (6.9%) died. Mean (SD) age was 51.5 (22.4) years, median GCS score was 15 (interquartile range, 15-15), and median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 9 (interquartile range, 9-16). More than 50% of the patients had a low-risk GAP or MGAP score (1% mortality). With regard to discrimination, areas under the ROC curve were 87.2% for GAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.7-87.7) and 86.8% for MGAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.2-87.3). With regard to calibration, 2,390 (3.3%), 1,900 (28.5%), and 1,184 (72.2%) patients died in the low, medium, and high GAP risk categories, respectively. In the low- and medium-risk groups, these were almost double the previously published rates. For MGAP, 1,861 (2.8%), 1,455 (15.2%), and 2,158 (58.6%) patients died in the low-, medium-, and high-risk categories, consonant with results originally published. Reclassifying score point cutoffs improved likelihood ratios, sensitivity and specificity, as well as areas under the ROC curve. CONCLUSION We found both scores to be valid triage tools to stratify emergency department patients, according to their risk of death. MGAP calibrated better, but GAP slightly improved discrimination. The newly proposed cutoffs better differentiate risk classification and may therefore facilitate hospital resource allocation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Prognostic study, level II.