Ecological and economic consequences of hypoxia: Topic 2 Report for the Integrated Assessment on Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico

In this report we have attempted to evaluate the ecological and economic consequences of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Although our initial approach was to rely on published accounts, we quickly realized that the body of published literature deahng with hypoxia was limited, and we would have to conduct our own exploratory analysis of existing Gulf data, or rely on published accounts from other systems to infer possible or potential effects of hypoxia. For the economic analysis, we developed a conceptual model of how hypoxia-related impacts could affect fisheries. Our model included both supply and demand components. The supply model had two components: (1) a physical production function for fish or shrimp, and (2) the cost of fishing. If hypoxia causes the cost of a unit of fishing effort to change, then this will result in a shift in supply. The demand model considered how hypoxia might affect the quality of landed fish or shrimp. In particular, the market value per pound is lower for small shrimp than for large shrimp. Given the limitations of the ecological assessment, the shallow continental shelf area affected by hypoxia does show signs of hypoxia-related stress. While current ecological conditions are a response to a variety of stressors, the effects of hypoxia are most obvious in the benthos that experience mortality, elimination of larger long-lived species, and a shifting of productivity to nonhypoxic periods (energy pulsing). What is not known is whether hypoxia leads to higher productivity during productive periods, or simply to a reduction of productivity during oxygen-stressed periods. The economic assessment based on fisheries data, however, failed to detect effects attributable to hypoxia. Overall, fisheries landings statistics for at least the last few decades have been relatively constant. The failure to identify clear hypoxic effects in the fisheries statistics does not necessarily mean that they are absent. There are several possibilities: (1) hypoxic effects are small relative to the overall variability in the data sets evaluated; (2) the data and the power of the analyses are not adequate; and (3) currently there are no hypoxic effects on fisheries. Lack of identified hypoxic effects in available fisheries data does not imply that effects would not occur should conditions worsen. Experience with other hypoxic zones around the globe shows that both ecological and fisheries effects become progressively more severe as hypoxia increases. Several large systems around the globe have suffered serious ecological and economic consequences from seasonal summertime hypoxia; most notable are the Kattegat and Black Sea. The consequences range from localized loss of catch and recruitment failure to complete system-wide loss of fishery species. If experiences in other systems are applicable to the Gulf of Mexico, then in the face of worsening hypoxic conditions, at some point fisheries and other species will decline, perhaps precipitously.

Increased toxicity of Karenia brevis during phosphate limited growth: ecological and evolutionary implications

Karenia brevis is the dominant toxic red tide algal species in the Gulf of Mexico. It produces potent neurotoxins (brevetoxins [PbTxs]), which negatively impact human and animal health, local economies, and ecosystem function. Field measurements have shown that cellular brevetoxin contents vary from 1–68 pg/cell but the source of this variability is uncertain. Increases in cellular toxicity caused by nutrient-limitation and inter-strain differences have been observed in many algal species. This study examined the effect of P-limitation of growth rate on cellular toxin concentrations in five Karenia brevis strains from different geographic locations. Phosphorous was selected because of evidence for regional P-limitation of algal growth in the Gulf of Mexico. Depending on the isolate, P-limited cells had 2.3- to 7.3-fold higher PbTx per cell than P-replete cells. The percent of cellular carbon associated with brevetoxins (%C-PbTx) was ~ 0.7 to 2.1% in P-replete cells, but increased to 1.6–5% under P-limitation. Because PbTxs are potent anti-grazing compounds, this increased investment in PbTxs should enhance cellular survival during periods of nutrient-limited growth. The %C-PbTx was inversely related to the specific growth rate in both the nutrient-replete and P-limited cultures of all strains. This inverse relationship is consistent with an evolutionary tradeoff between carbon investment in PbTxs and other grazing defenses, and C investment in growth and reproduction. In aquatic environments where nutrient supply and grazing pressure often vary on different temporal and spatial scales, this tradeoff would be selectively advantageous as it would result in increased net population growth rates. The variation in PbTx/cell values observed in this study can account for the range of values observed in the field, including the highest values, which are not observed under N-limitation. These results suggest P-limitation is an important factor regulating cellular toxicity and adverse impacts during at least some K. brevis blooms.

Ecological condition of coastal ocean waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico: 2011

In August 2011, the NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS) conducted an assessment of the status of ecological condition of soft-bottom habitat and overlying waters of the continental shelf in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). The original sampling design included 50 randomly selected sites from the Mississippi River delta to the U.S./Mexican border, representing a total area of 111,162 square kilometers; however, vessel failures and inclement weather precluded sampling at 16 sites in the western-most part of the study region. Sampling was completed at the remaining 34 sites in offshore waters between the Mississippi River delta and Freeport, Texas, representing an estimated 75,591 square kilometers. Field sampling followed standard methods and indicators applied in prior NOAA coastal studies and EPA’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) and National Coastal Assessment (NCA). A key feature adopted from these studies was the incorporation of a random probabilistic sampling design. Such a design provides a basis for making unbiased statistical estimates of the spatial extent of ecological condition relative to various measured indicators and corresponding thresholds of concern. Indicators included multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition (benthic fauna, fish tissue contaminant levels). Water depths ranged from 13 – 83 m throughout the study area. About 9 % of the area had sediments composed of sands (< 20 % silt+clay), 47 % of the area was composed of intermediate muddy sands (20 – 80 % silt+clay), and 44 % of the sampled area consisted of mud (> 80 % silt+clay). About 50 % of the area (represented by 17 sites) had sediment total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations < 5 mg/g and all of the sites sampled had levels of TOC < 20 mg/g, well below the range associated with potentially harmful effects to benthic fauna (> 50 mg/g). Surface salinities ranged from 23.4 – 36.5 psu, with salinity generally increasing with distance west of the Mississippi River delta. Bottom salinities varied between 31.1 and 36.5 psu, with lowest values occurring at shallow, inner-shelf stations. Surface-water temperatures varied between 29.8 and 31.5 ºC, while near-bottom waters ranged in temperature from 19.4 – 31 ºC. An index of density stratification (Δσt) indicated that portions of coastal shelf waters in the northwestern GOM at the time of this sampling were strongly stratified. Values of Δσt at 19 of the 34 sites sampled in this study (56 % of the study area) ranged from 2.2 to 12.4, which is within the range considered to be indicative of strong vertical stratification (Δσt > 2). Stratification was strongest close to the Mississippi River delta, and decreased with distance west of the delta.

Support for integrated ecosystem assessments of NOAA’s National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS): assessment of ecological condition and stressor impacts in subtidal waters of the Sapelo Island National Estuarine Research Reserve

A study was conducted in June 2009 to assess the current status of ecological condition and potential human-health risks throughout subtidal estuarine waters of the Sapelo Island National Estuarine Research Reserve (SINERR) along the coast of Georgia. Samples were collected for multiple indicators of ecosystem condition, including water quality (dissolved oxygen, salinity, temperature, pH, nutrients and chlorophyll, suspended solids, fecal coliform bacteria and coliphages), sediment quality (granulometry, organic matter content, chemical contaminant concentrations), biological condition (diversity and abundance of benthic fauna, fish tissue contaminant levels and pathologies), and human dimensions (fish-tissue contaminant levels relative to human-health consumption limits, various aesthetic properties). Use of a probabilistic sampling design facilitated the calculation of statistics to estimate the spatial extent of the Reserve classified according to various categories (i.e., Good, Fair, Poor) of ecological condition relative to established thresholds of these indicators, where available. Overall, the majority of subtidal habitat in the SINERR appeared to be healthy, with over half (56.7 %) of the Reserve area having water quality, sediment quality, and benthic biological condition indicators rated in the healthy to intermediate range of corresponding guideline thresholds. None of the stations sampled had one or more indicators in all three categories rated as poor/degraded. While these results are encouraging, it should be noted that one or more indicators were rated as poor/degraded in at least one of the three categories over 40% of the Reserve study area, represented by 12 of the 30 stations sampled. Although measures of fish tissue chemical contamination were not included in any of the above estimates, a number of trace metals, pesticides, polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were found at low yet detectable levels in some fish at stations where fish were caught. Levels of mercury and total PCBs in some fish specimens fell within EPA guideline values considered safe, given a consumption rate of no more than four fish meals per month. Moreover, PCB congener profiles in sediments and fish in the SINERR exhibit a relative abundance of higher-chlorinated homologs which are uniquely characteristic of Aroclor 1268. It has been well-documented that sediments and fish in the creeks and marshes near the LCP Chemicals Superfund site, near Brunswick, Georgia, also display this congener pattern associated with Aroclor 1268, a highly chlorinated mixture of PCBs used extensively at a chlor-alkali plant that was in operation at the LCP site from 1955-1994. This report provides results suggesting that the protected habitats lying within the boundaries of the SINERR may be experiencing the effects of a legacy of chemical contamination at a site over 40km away. These effects, as well as other potential stressors associated with increased development of nearby coastal areas, underscore the importance of establishing baseline ecological conditions that can be used to track potential changes in the future and to guide management and stewardship of the otherwise relatively unspoiled ecosystems of the SINERR.

Ecological condition of coastal ocean waters of the U.S. continental shelf off South Florida: 2007

A study was initiated with field work in May 2007 to assess the status of ecological condition and stressor impacts throughout the U.S. continental shelf off South Florida, focusing on soft-bottom habitats, and to provide this information as a baseline for evaluating future changes due to natural or human-induced disturbances. The boundaries of the study region extended from Anclote Key on the western coast of Florida to West Palm Beach on the eastern coast of Florida, inclusive of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), and from navigable depths along the shoreline seaward to the shelf break (~100m). The study incorporated standard methods and indicators applied in previous national coastal monitoring programs — U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) and National Coastal Assessment (NCA) — including multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition. Synoptic sampling of the various indicators provided an integrative weight-of-evidence approach to assessing condition at each station and a basis for examining potential associations between presence of stressors and biological responses. A probabilistic sampling design, which included 50 stations distributed randomly throughout the region, was used to provide a basis for estimating the spatial extent of condition relative to the various measured indicators and corresponding assessment endpoints (where available). The study was conducted through a large cooperative effort by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), EPA, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NOAA/Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, FKNMS, and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC). The majority of the South Florida shelf had high levels of dissolved oxygen (DO) in near-bottom water (> 5 mg L-1) indicative of “good” water quality.. DO levels in bottom waters exceeded this upper threshold at 98.8% throughout the coastal-ocean survey area. Only 1.2% of the region had moderate DO levels (2-5 mg/L) and no part of the survey area had DO <2.0 mg/L. In addition, offshore waters throughout the region had relatively low levels of total suspended solids (TSS), nutrients, and chlorophyll a indicative of oligotrophic conditions. Results suggested good sediment quality as well. Sediments throughout the region, which ranged from sands to intermediate muddy sands, had low levels of total organic carbon (TOC) below bioeffect guidelines for benthic organisms. Chemical contaminants in sediments were also mostly at low, background levels. For example, none of the stations had chemicals in excess of corresponding Effects-Range Median (ERM) probable bioeffect values or more than one chemical in excess of lower-threshold Effects-Range Low (ERL) values. Cadmium was the only chemical that occurred at moderate concentrations between corresponding ERL and ERM values. Sixty fish samples from 28 stations were collected and analyzed for chemical contaminants. Eleven of these samples (39% of sites) had moderate levels of contaminants, between lower and upper non-cancer human-health thresholds, and ten (36% of sites) had high levels of contaminants above the upper threshold.

Modeling seabird group size: implications for ecological impact assessments

The purpose of this project is to model seabird flock size data to provide recommendations to the Bureau of Ocean and Energy Management for offshore wind turbine placement. Our hypothesis is that ecological characteristics influence which statistical distribution will provide the best fit to seabird flock size data. To test this, seabird species can be grouped based on shared ecological traits, such as foraging mechanism or diet.

Ecological Condition of Coastal Ocean Waters within Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary: 2008

In June 2008, the NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS), in conjunction with the EPA National Health and Environmental Effects Laboratory (NHEERL), conducted an assessment of the status of ecological condition of soft-bottom habitat and overlying waters within the boundaries of Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (SBNMS). The sanctuary lies approximately 20 nautical miles east of Boston, MA in the southwest Gulf of Maine between Cape Ann and Cape Cod and encompassing 638 square nautical miles (2,181 km2). A total of 30 stations were targeted for sampling using standard methods and indicators applied in prior NOAA coastal studies and EPA’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) and National Coastal Assessment (NCA). A key feature adopted from these studies was the incorporation of a random probabilistic sampling design. Such a design provides a basis for making unbiased statistical estimates of the spatial extent of ecological condition relative to various measured indicators and corresponding thresholds of concern. Indicators included multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition (benthic fauna, fish tissue contaminant levels). Depths ranged from 31 – 137 m throughout the study area. About 76 % of the area had sediments composed of sands (< 20 % silt-clay), 17 % of the area was composed of intermediate muddy sands (20 – 80 % silt-clay), and 7 % of the sampled area consisted of mud (> 80 % siltclay). About 70 % of the area (represented by 21 sites) had sediment total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations < 5 mg/g and all but one site (located in Stellwagen Basin) had levels of TOC < 20 mg/g, which is well below the range potentially harmful to benthic fauna (> 50 mg/g). Surface salinities ranged from 30.6 – 31.5 psu, with the majority of the study region (approximately 80 % of the area) having surface salinities between 30.8 and 31.4 psu. Bottom salinities varied between 32.1 and 32.5 psu, with bottom salinities at all sites having values above the range of surface salinities. Surface-water temperatures varied between 12.1 and 16.8 ºC, while near-bottom waters ranged in temperature from 4.4 – 6.2 ºC. An index of density stratification (Δσt) indicated that the waters of SBNMS were stratified at the time of sampling. Values of Δσt at 29 of the 30 sites sampled in this study (96.7 % of the study area) varied from 2.1 – 3.2, which is within the range considered to be indicative of strong vertical stratification (Δσt > 2) and typical of the western Gulf of Maine in summer. Levels of dissolved oxygen (DO) were confined to a fairly narrow range in surface (8.8 – 10.4 mg/L) and bottom (8.5 – 9.6 mg/L) waters throughout the survey area. These levels are within the range considered indicative of good water quality (> 5 mg/L) with respect to DO. None of these waters had DO at low levels (< 2 mg/L) potentially harmful to benthic fauna and fish.

A baseline assessment of the ecological resources of Jobos Bay, Puerto Rico

This baseline assessment of Jobos Bay and surrounding marine ecosystems consists of a two part series. The first report (Zitello et al., 2008) described the characteristics of the Bay and its watershed, including modeling work related to nutrients and sediment fluxes, based on existing data. The second portion of this assessment, presented in this document, presents the results of new field studies conducted to fill data gaps identified in previous studies, to provide a more complete characterization of Jobos Bay and the surrounding coral reef ecosystems. Specifically, the objective was to establish baseline values for the distribution of habitats, nutrients, contaminants, fi sh, and benthic communities. This baseline assessment is the first step in evaluating the effectiveness in changes in best management practices in the watershed. This baseline assessment is part of the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP), which is a multi-agency effort to quantify the environmental benefits of conservation practices used by agricultural producers participating in selected U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) conservation programs. Partners in the CEAP Jobos Bay Special Emphasis Watershed (SEW) included USDA’s Agricultural Research Service (ARS) and the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Government of Puerto Rico. The project originated from an on-going collaboration between USDA and NOAA on the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force. The Jobos Bay watershed was chosen because the predominant land use is agriculture, including agricultural lands adjacent to the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (JBNERR or Reserve), one of NOAA’s 26 National Estuarine Research Reserves (NERR). This report is organized into six chapters that represent a suite of interrelated studies. Chapter 1 provides a short introduction to Jobos Bay, including the land use and hydrology of the watershed. Chapter 2 is focused on benthic mapping and provides the methods and results of newly created benthic maps for Jobos Bay and the surrounding coral reef ecosystem. Chapter 3 presents the results of new surveys of fish, marine debris, and reef communities of the system. Chapter 4 is focused on the distribution of chemical contaminants in sediments within the Bay and corals outside of the Bay. Chapter 5 focuses on quantifying nutrient and pesticide concentrations in the surface waters at the Reserve’s System-Wide Monitoring Program (SWMP) sites. Chapter 6 is a brief summary discussion that highlights key findings of the entire suite of studies.

An ecological correction to marine reserves boundaries in the US Virgin Islands

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are important tools for management of marine ecosystems. While desired, ecological and biological criteria are not always feasible to consider when establishing protected areas. In 2001, the Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument (VICR) in St. John, US Virgin Islands was established by Executive Order. VICR boundaries were based on administrative determination of Territorial Sea boundaries and land ownership at the time of the Territorial Submerged Lands Act of 1974. VICR prohibits almost all fishing and other extractive uses. Surveys of habitat and fishes inside and outside of VICR were conducted in 2002-07. Based on these surveys, areas outside VICR had significantly more hard corals; greater habitat complexity; and greater richness, abundance and biomass of reef fishes than areas within VICR, further supporting results from 2002-2004 (Monaco et al., 2007). The administrative (political) process used to establish VICR did not allow a robust ecological characterization of the area to determine the boundaries of the MPA. Efforts are underway to increase amounts of complex reef habitat within VICR by swapping a part of VICR that has little coral reef habitat for a Territorially-owned area within VICR that contains a coral reef with higher coral cover.

An ecological characterization of the marine resources of Vieques, Puerto Rico Part II: Field studies of habitats, nutrients, contaminants, fish, and benthic communities

Since the 1940s, portions of the Island of Vieques, Puerto Rico have been used by the United States Navy (USN) as an ammunition support detachment and bombing and maneuver training range. In April 2001, the USN began phasing out military activities on the island and transferring military property to the U.S. Department of the Interior, the Municipality of Vieques, and the Puerto Rico Conservation Trust. A small number of studies have been commissioned by the USN in the past few decades to assess selected components of the coral reef ecosystem surrounding the island; however, these studies were generally of limited geographic scope and short duration. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), in consultation with NOAA’s Office of Response and Restoration (OR&R) and other local and regional experts, conducted a more comprehensive characterization of coral reef ecosystems, contaminants, and nutrient distribution patterns around Vieques. This work was conducted using many of the same protocols as ongoing monitoring work underway elsewhere in the U.S. Caribbean and has enabled comparisons among coral reef ecosystems in Vieques and other locations in the region. This characterization of Vieques’ marine ecosystems consists of a two part series. First, available information on reefs, fish, birds, seagrasses, turtles, mangroves, climate, geology, currents, and human uses from previous studies was gathered and integrated into a single document comprising Part I of this two part series (Bauer et al. 2008). For Part II of the series, presented in this document, new field studies were conducted to fill data gaps identified in previous studies, to provide an island-wide characterization, and to establish baseline values for the distribution of habitats, nutrients, contaminants, fish, and benthic communities. An important objective underlying this suite of studies was to quantify any differences in the marine areas adjacent to the former and current land-use zoning around Vieques. Specifically of interest was the possibility that either Naval (e.g., practice bombing, munitions storage) or civilian activities (e.g., sewage pollutants, overfishing) could have a negative impact on adjacent marine resources. Measuring conditions at this time and so recently after the land transfer was essential because present conditions are likely to be reflective of past land-use practices. In addition, the assessment will establish benchmark conditions that can be influenced by the potentially dramatic future changes in land-use practices as Vieques considers its development. This report is organized into seven chapters that represent a suite of interrelated studies. Chapter 1 provides a short introduction to the island setting, the former and current land-use zoning, and how the land zoning was used to spatially stratify much of the sampling. Chapter 2 is focused on benthic mapping and provides the methods, accuracy assessment, and results of newly created benthic maps for Vieques. Chapter 3 presents the results of new surveys of fish, marine debris, and reef communities on hardbottom habitats around the island. Chapter 4 presents results of flora and fauna surveys in selected bays and lagoons. Chapter 5 examines the distribution of nutrients in lagoons, inshore, and offshore waters around the island. Chapter 6 is focused on the distribution of chemical contaminants in sediments and corals. Chapter 7 is a brief summary discussion that highlights key findings of the entire suite of studies.

An ecological characterization of the marine resources of Vieques, Puerto Rico. Part I: Historical data synthesis

From the 1940s until 2003, portions of the island of Vieques, a municipality within the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, were used by the US Navy as a base and training facility, resulting in development and zoning history that differ in comparison to other Caribbean islands. The majority of former Navy lands are now under the jurisdiction of the Department of the Interior’s Fish and Wildlife Service as a National Wildlife Refuge, while a smaller percentage of land was transferred to the Vieques municipality and the Puerto Rico Conservation Trust. An analysis of the distribution and status of the marine resources is timely in light of the recent land transfer, increases in development and tourism, and potential changes in marine zoning around the island. To meet this need, NOAA’s Biogeography Branch, in cooperation with the Office of Response and Restoration and other local and regional partners, conducted Part I of an ecological characterization to integrate historical data and research into a synthesis report. The overall objective of this report is to provide resource managers and residents a comprehensive characterization of the marine resources of Vieques to support research, monitoring, and management. For example, knowledge of the spatial distribution of physical features, habitats, and biological communities is necessary to make an informed decision of the establishment and placement of a marine protected area (MPA). The report is divided into chapters based on the physical environment (e.g., climate, geology, bathymetry), habitat types (e.g., reefs and hardbottom, seagrasses, mangroves) and major faunal groups (e.g. fish, turtles, birds). Each section includes five subsections: an overview, description of the relevant literature, methods of analysis, information on the distribution, status and trends of the particular resource, and a discussion of ecological linkages with other components of the Vieques marine ecosystem and surrounding environment. The physical environment of Vieques is similar to other islands within the Greater Antilles chain, with some distinctions. The warm, tropical climate of Vieques, mediated by the northeasterly trade winds, is characterized by a dry season (December-April) and a rainy season (May-November), the latter of which is characterized by the occasional passage of tropical cyclones. Compared to mainland Puerto Rico, Vieques is characterized by lower elevation, less annual precipitation, and higher average temperatures. The amount of annual precipitation also varies spatially within Vieques, with the western portion of the island receiving higher amounts of rainfall than further east. While the North Equatorial Current dominates the circulation pattern in the Greater Antilles region, small scale current patterns specific to Vieques are not as well characterized. These physical processes are important factors mitigating the distribution and composition of marine benthic habitats around Vieques. In general, the topography of Vieques is characterized by rolling hills. Mt. Pirata, the tallest point at 301 m, is located near the southwest coast. In the absence of island wide sedimentation measurements, information on land cover, slope, precipitation, and soil type were used to estimate relative erosion potential and sediment delivery for each watershed. While slope and precipitation amount are the primary driving factors controlling runoff, land use practices such as urban development, military activity, road construction, and agriculture can increase the delivery of pollution and sediments to coastal waters. Due to the recent land transfer, increased development and tourism is expected, which may result in changes in the input of sediments to the coastal environment.

Report of the special session of "Chesapeake Bay Ecological Forecasting: Moving Ecosystem Modeling from Research to Operation" of the 2010 Chesapeake Modeling Symposium

Moving ecosystem modeling from research to applications and operations has direct management relevance and will be integral to achieving the water quality and living resource goals of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay Executive Order. Yet despite decades of ecosystem modeling efforts of linking climate to water quality, plankton and fish, ecological models are rarely taken to the operational phase. In an effort to promote operational ecosystem modeling and ecological forecasting in Chesapeake Bay, a meeting was convened on this topic at the 2010 Chesapeake Modeling Symposium (May, 10-11). These presentations show that tremendous progress has been made over the last five years toward the development of operational ecological forecasting models, and that efforts in Chesapeake Bay are leading the way nationally. Ecological forecasts predict the impacts of chemical, biological, and physical changes on ecosystems, ecosystem components, and people. They have great potential to educate and inform not only ecosystem management, but also the outlook and opinion of the general public, for whom we manage coastal ecosystems. In the context of the Chesapeake Bay Executive Order, ecological forecasting can be used to identify favorable restoration sites, predict which sites and species will be viable under various climate scenarios, and predict the impact of a restoration project on water quality.