Combining propensity and influence models for product adoption prediction

This paper studies the problem of selecting users in an online social network for targeted advertising so as to maximize the adoption of a given product. In previous work, two families of models have been considered to address this problem: direct targeting and network-based targeting. The former approach targets users with the highest propensity to adopt the product, while the latter approach targets users with the highest influence potential – that is users whose adoption is most likely to be followed by subsequent adoptions by peers. This paper proposes a hybrid approach that combines a notion of propensity and a notion of influence into a single utility function. We show that targeting a fixed number of high-utility users results in more adoptions than targeting either highly influential users or users with high propensity.

Reassessing the earthquake hazard in Kerala based on the historical and current seismicity

Given the lack of proper constraints in understanding earthquake mechanisms in the cratonic interiors and the general absence of good quality database, here we reassess the seismic hazard in the province of Kerala, a part of the aEuro cent stable continental interioraEuro cent, based on an improved historical and instrumental database. The temporal pattern of the current seismicity suggests that > 60% of the microtremors in Kerala occurs with a time lag after the peak rainfall, indicating that hydroseismicity may be a plausible model to explain the low-level seismicity in this region. Further, an increment in overall seismicity rate in the region in the recent years is explained as due to increased anthropogenic activities, which includes changes in hydrological pathways as a consequence of rapid landscape changes. Our analyses of the historical database eliminate a few events that are ascribed to this region; this exercise has also led to identification of a few events, not previously noted. The improved historical database essentially suggests that the central midland region is more prone to seismic activity compared to other parts of Kerala. This region appears to have generated larger number of significant earthquakes; the most prominent being the multiple events (doublets) of 1856 and 1953, whose magnitudes are comparable to that of the 2000/2001 (central Kerala) events. Occurrences of these historical events and the recent earthquakes, and the local geology indicative of pervasive faulting as shown by widely distributed pseudotachylite veins suggest that the NNW-SSE trending faults in central midland Kerala may host discrete potentially active sources that may be capable of generating light to moderate size earthquakes. The frequency of earthquakes in central Kerala evident from the historical database requires that the seismic codes stipulated for this region are made mandatory.

New approach to improved detection and tracking performance in track-while-scan radars. Part 3: Performance prediction, optimisation and testing

The paper presents, in three parts, a new approach to improve the detection and tracking performance of a track-while-scan radar. Part 1 presents a review of the current status of the subject. Part 2 details the new approach. It shows how a priori information provided by the tracker can be used to improve detection. It also presents a new multitarget tracking algorithm. In the present Part, analytical derivations are presented for assessing, a priori, the performance of the TWS radar system. True track initiation, false track initiation, true track continuation and false track deletion characteristics have been studied. It indicates how the various thresholds can be chosen by the designer to optimise performance. Simulation results are also presented.

Non-destructive prediction of 'Hass' avocado dry matter via FT-NIR spectroscopy.

BACKGROUND: The inability to consistently guarantee internal quality of horticulture produce is of major importance to the primary producer, marketers and ultimately the consumer. Currently, commercial avocado maturity estimation is based on the destructive assessment of percentage dry matter (%DM), and sometimes percentage oil, both of which are highly correlated with maturity. In this study the utility of Fourier transform (FT) near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was investigated for the first time as a non-invasive technique for estimating %DM of whole intact 'Hass' avocado fruit. Partial least squares regression models were developed from the diffuse reflectance spectra to predict %DM, taking into account effects of intra-seasonal variation and orchard conditions. RESULTS: It was found that combining three harvests (early, mid and late) from a single farm in the major production district of central Queensland yielded a predictive model for %DM with a coefficient of determination for the validation set of 0.76 and a root mean square error of prediction of 1.53% for DM in the range 19.4-34.2%. CONCLUSION: The results of the study indicate the potential of FT-NIRS in diffuse reflectance mode to non-invasively predict %DM of whole 'Hass' avocado fruit. When the FT-NIRS system was assessed on whole avocados, the results compared favourably against data from other NIRS systems identified in the literature that have been used in research applications on avocados.

Evaluate traffic noise level based on traffic microsimulation combined with a refined classic noise prediction method

In this paper, a refined classic noise prediction method based on the VISSIM and FHWA noise prediction model is formulated to analyze the sound level contributed by traffic on the Nanjing Lukou airport connecting freeway before and after widening. The aim of this research is to (i) assess the traffic noise impact on the Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (NUAA) campus before and after freeway widening, (ii) compare the prediction results with field data to test the accuracy of this method, (iii) analyze the relationship between traffic characteristics and sound level. The results indicate that the mean difference between model predictions and field measurements is acceptable. The traffic composition impact study indicates that buses (including mid-sized trucks) and heavy goods vehicles contribute a significant proportion of total noise power despite their low traffic volume. In addition, speed analysis offers an explanation for the minor differences in noise level across time periods. Future work will aim at reducing model error, by focusing on noise barrier analysis using the FEM/BEM method and modifying the vehicle noise emission equation by conducting field experimentation.

Electrode kinetics of a nickel/cadmium cell and failure-mode prediction. Estimation of equivalent resistance of an internal short

A quantitative expression has been obtained for the equivalent resistance of an internal short in rechargeable cells under constant voltage charging.

Analysis of proteins with the `hot dog' fold: Prediction of function and identification of catalytic residues of hypothetical proteins

Background: The hot dog fold has been found in more than sixty proteins since the first report of its existence about a decade ago. The fold appears to have a strong association with fatty acid biosynthesis, its regulation and metabolism, as the proteins with this fold are predominantly coenzyme A-binding enzymes with a variety of substrates located at their active sites. Results: We have analyzed the structural features and sequences of proteins having the hot dog fold. This study reveals that though the basic architecture of the fold is well conserved in these proteins, significant differences exist in their sequence, nature of substrate and oligomerization. Segments with certain conserved sequence motifs seem to play crucial structural and functional roles in various classes of these proteins. Conclusion: The analysis led to predictions regarding the functional classification and identification of possible catalytic residues of a number of hot dog fold-containing hypothetical proteins whose structures were determined in high throughput structural genomics projects.

Prediction of Compressibility of Overconsolidated Uncemented Soils

Overconsolidated soils exhibit a bilinear e-log p relationship. During virgin compression, microstructural units form larger stable groups, thereby reducing the operating specific surface and, in turn, net osmotic repulsive forces in the soil. The rebound portion of the e-log p curve is consequently flatter. The generalized relationship for compressibility of uncemented soils in the overconsolidated state has been developed in the form of e/eL = 1.122 = 0.188 log pc - 0.0463 log p in which e/eL is the generalized soil state parameter, pc is the preconsolidation pressure in kPa, p is the effective overburden pressure in kPa, e is the in situ void ratio, and eL is the void ratio corresponding to the liquid limit water content (wLG). This relationship can be usefully employed to predict both the preconsolidation pressure and compressibility responses of overconsolidated uncemented soils.

Prediction of Breakdown Voltages of Binary Gas Mixtures in Uniform Electric Fields

A simple equation to predict the breakdown voltages for binary mixtures (Vmix) of electronegative gases (SF6, CCl2F2) and buffer gases (N2, N2O, CO2, air) under uniform electric field has been proposed. Values of Vmix evaluated using this equation for mixtures of SF6-N2, SF6-air, SF6-N2O, SF6-CO2 and CCl2F2-N2 over a wide range of pd show an excellent agreement with the experimentally measured data available in the literature.

Simultaneous prediction of acidity parameters (pH and titratable acidity) in Kefir using near infrared reflectance spectroscopy.

Acidity in terms of pH and titratable acids influences the texture and flavour of fermented dairy products, such as Kefir. However, the methods for determining pH and titratable acidity (TA) are time consuming. Near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy is a non-destructive method, which simultaneously predicts multiple traits from a single scan and can be used to predict pH and TA. The best pH NIR calibration model was obtained with no spectral pre-treatment applied, whereas smoothing was found to be the best pre-treatment to develop the TA calibration model. Using cross-validation, the prediction results were found acceptable for both pH and TA. With external validation, similar results were found for pH and TA, and both models were found to be acceptable for screening purposes.

Markers of systemic inflammation in diagnostics and in prediction of outcome of community-acquired infection

Sepsis is associated with a systemic inflammatory response. It is characterised by an early proinflammatory response and followed by a state of immunosuppression. In order to improve the outcome of patients with infection and sepsis, novel therapies that influence the systemic inflammatory response are being developed and utilised. Thus, an accurate and early diagnosis of infection and evaluation of immune state are crucial. In this thesis, various markers of systemic inflammation were studied with respect to enhancing the diagnostics of infection and of predicting outcome in patients with suspected community-acquired infection. A total of 1092 acutely ill patients admitted to a university hospital medical emergency department were evaluated, and 531 patients with a suspicion of community-acquired infection were included for the analysis. Markers of systemic inflammation were determined from a blood sample obtained simultaneously with a blood culture sample on admission to hospital. Levels of phagocyte CD11b/CD18 and CD14 expression were measured by whole blood flow cytometry. Concentrations of soluble CD14, interleukin (IL)-8, and soluble IL-2 receptor α (sIL-2Rα) were determined by ELISA, those of sIL-2R, IL-6, and IL-8 by a chemiluminescent immunoassay, that of procalcitonin by immunoluminometric assay, and that of C-reactive protein by immunoturbidimetric assay. Clinical data were collected retrospectively from the medical records. No marker of systemic inflammation, neither CRP, PCT, IL-6, IL-8, nor sIL-2R predicted bacteraemia better than did the clinical signs of infection, i.e., the presence of infectious focus or fever or both. IL-6 and PCT had the highest positive likelihood ratios to identify patients with hidden community-acquired infection. However, the use of a single marker failed to detect all patients with infection. A combination of markers including a fast-responding reactant (CD11b expression), a later-peaking reactant (CRP), and a reactant originating from inflamed tissues (IL-8) detected all patients with infection. The majority of patients (86.5%) with possible but not verified infection showed levels exceeding at least one cut-off limit of combination, supporting the view that infection was the cause of their acute illness. The 28-day mortality of patients with community-acquired infection was low (3.4%). On admission to hospital, the low expression of cell-associated lipopolysaccharide receptor CD14 (mCD14) was predictive for 28-day mortality. In the patients with severe forms of community-acquired infection, namely pneumonia and sepsis, high levels of soluble CD14 alone did not predict mortality, but a high sCD14 level measured simultaneously with a low mCD14 raised the possibility of poor prognosis. In conclusion, to further enhance the diagnostics of hidden community-acquired infection, a combination of inflammatory markers is useful; 28-day mortality is associated with low levels of mCD14 expression at an early phase of the disease.

Prediction of bubble growth rates and departure volumes in nucleate boiling at isolated sites

A model has been developed to predict heat transfer rates and sizes of bubbles generated during nucleate pool boiling. This model assumes conduction and a natural convective heat transfer mechanism through the liquid layer under the bubble and transient conduction from the bulk liquid. The temperature of the bulk liquid in the vicinity of the bubble is obtained by assuming a turbulent natural convection process from the hot plate to the liquid bulk. The shape of the bubble is obtained by equilibrium analysis. The bubble departure condition is predicted by a force balance equation. Good agreement has been found between the bubble radii predicted by the present theory and the ones obtained experimentally.

Liveweight prediction from hip height, condition score, fetal age and breed in tropical female cattle

Hip height, body condition, subcutaneous fat, eye muscle area, percentage Bos taurus, fetal age and diet digestibility data were collected at 17 372 assessments on 2181 Brahman and tropical composite (average 28% Brahman) female cattle aged between 0.5 and 7.5 years of age at five sites across Queensland. The study validated the subtraction of previously published estimates of gravid uterine weight to correct liveweight to the non-pregnant status. Hip height and liveweight were linearly related (Brahman: P<0.001, R-2 = 58%; tropical composite P<0.001, R-2 = 67%). Liveweight varied by 12-14% per body condition score (5-point scale) as cows differed from moderate condition (P<0.01). Parallel effects were also found due to subcutaneous rump fat depth and eye muscle area, which were highly correlated with each other and body condition score (r = 0.7-0.8). Liveweight differed from average by 1.65-1.66% per mm of rump fat depth and 0.71-0.76% per cm(2) of eye muscle area (P<0.01). Estimated dry matter digestibility of pasture consumed had no consistent effect in predicting liveweight and was therefore excluded from final models. A method developed to estimate full liveweight of post-weaning age female beef cattle from the other measures taken predicted liveweight to within 10 and 23% of that recorded for 65 and 95% of cases, respectively. For a 95% chance of predicted group average liveweight (body condition score used) being within 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1% of actual group average liveweight required 23, 36, 62, 137 and 521 females, respectively, if precision and accuracy of measurements matches that used in the research. Non-pregnant Bos taurus female cattle were calculated to be 10-40% heavier than Brahmans at the same hip height and body condition, indicating a substantial conformational difference. The liveweight prediction method was applied to a validation population of 83 unrelated groups of cattle weighed in extensive commercial situations on 119 days over 18 months (20 917 assessments). Liveweight prediction in the validation population exceeded average recorded liveweight for weigh groups by an average of 19 kg (similar to 6%) demonstrating the difficulty of achieving accurate and precise animal measurements under extensive commercial grazing conditions.

Prediction of frequency and amplitude of foundations at resonance

This note presents the statistical analysis carried out on some of the available experimental results to predict the resonant frequency and maximum displacement amplitude of a machine foundation – soil system under vertical vibration as a function of the size and weight of the foundation and of the excitation level. A total of 442 experimental results of Fry, Novak, and Raman have been analysed using nonlinear regression analysis. The results obtained compared well with predictions obtained from the popular theoretical models, and the coefficient of correlation obtained from the analysis was satisfactory in most of the cases.