984 resultados para EQUITY PREMIUM PREDICTION


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PREFACE The concept of an international symposium on rural education arose from a meeting between members of the SiMERR National Centre, Australia and the NURI Teacher Education Innovation Centre (NURI-TEIC) at Kongju National University, Korea in 2007. Despite the very different national contexts, the teams were struck by the similarities of the challenges facing rural schools in the two countries, and curious about the degree to which these challenges were shared by other countries. At a subsequent meeting in Australia in December 2007, the two centre Directors - Professor John Pegg (SiMERR) and Professor Youn-Kee Im (NURI-TEIC) - agreed on a framework for the first International Symposium for Innovation in Rural Education (ISFIRE). This volume consists of the keynotes and refereed papers presented at ISFIRE 2009. The papers provide insights into rural education in Australia, Bhutan, Canada, Korea, Norway, South Africa and the United States along the following themes: 1. Promoting rural policy initiatives; 2. Nurturing the rural teacher experience; 3. Enhancing rural student experience and growth; 4. Optimising the curriculum; 5. Improving resources in rural schools; and 6. Addressing special issues in rural education. The authors and titles of a further 23 presentations based on refereed abstracts only are listed at the end of this volume. The abstracts for these presentations can be found in the symposium Program. The academics and practitioners who came together for this symposium are passionate about rural education and have dedicated their time and capacities to working for the benefit of rural teachers, students and communities. The papers in this volume offer direction not only for Australia and South Korea, who jointly hosted this symposium, but for all countries in which rural education is contested ground. The keynotes in particular contribute rich perspectives on rural education trends, policies and practices. We hope that this volume generates a greater appreciation of the advantages of rural education and the many innovative approaches being implemented to meet its challenges.

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MapReduce frameworks such as Hadoop are well suited to handling large sets of data which can be processed separately and independently, with canonical applications in information retrieval and sales record analysis. Rapid advances in sequencing technology have ensured an explosion in the availability of genomic data, with a consequent rise in the importance of large scale comparative genomics, often involving operations and data relationships which deviate from the classical Map Reduce structure. This work examines the application of Hadoop to patterns of this nature, using as our focus a wellestablished workflow for identifying promoters - binding sites for regulatory proteins - Across multiple gene regions and organisms, coupled with the unifying step of assembling these results into a consensus sequence. Our approach demonstrates the utility of Hadoop for problems of this nature, showing how the tyranny of the "dominant decomposition" can be at least partially overcome. It also demonstrates how load balance and the granularity of parallelism can be optimized by pre-processing that splits and reorganizes input files, allowing a wide range of related problems to be brought under the same computational umbrella.

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This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.

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Australia has been populated for more than 40,000 years with Indigenous Australians joined by European settlers only 230 years ago. The first settlers consisted of convicts from more than 28 countries and members of the British army who arrived in 1788 to establish a British penal colony. Mass migration in the nineteenth century with one and a half million immigrants from Europe, principally from the United Kingdom and Ireland (Haines and Shlomowitz, 1992), established the continent as an Anglo society in the Pacific. In the twentieth century immigrants came from many European countries and in the latter decades from many parts of Asia and the Middle East (Collins, 1991, pp.10-13). In the 21st century Australia has an ethnically and culturally diverse population. The original Indigenous population of Australia accounts for approximately 460,000 or 2.5 per cent of the total population (ABS, 2006a). Estimates are that around 4.5m. persons in the population (close to 20 per cent), were born outside Australia with the majority of these arriving from Europe, principally the United Kingdom, and New Zealand (ABS, 2006b). Like many other countries, Australia has a legacy of discrimination and inequality in employment. Propelled by racist ideologies and the male breadwinner ideology, Indigenous Australians, and non-European immigrants, and women were barred from certain jobs and paid less for their work than any white male counterpart. These conditions were legally sanctioned through the industrial relations system and other laws in the nineteenth and first half of the twentieth century. Since the 1960s a dramatic change has occurred in social policy and national legislation and Australia today has an extensive array of laws which forbid employment discrimination on race, ethnicity, gender and many other characteristics, and other approaches which promote proactive organizational plans and actions to achieve equity in employment. This chapter outlines these developments.

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Recent research at the Queensland University of Technology has investigated the structural and thermal behaviour of load bearing Light gauge Steel Frame (LSF) wall systems made of 1.15 mm G500 steel studs and varying plasterboard and insulation configurations (cavity and external insulation) using full scale fire tests. Suitable finite element models of LSF walls were then developed and validated by comparing with test results. In this study, the validated finite element models of LSF wall panels subject to standard fire conditions were used in a detailed parametric study to investigate the effects of important parameters such as steel grade and thickness, plasterboard screw spacing, plasterboard lateral restraint, insulation materials and load ratio on their performance under standard fire conditions. Suitable equations were proposed to predict the time–temperature profiles of LSF wall studs with eight different plasterboard-insulation configurations, and used in the finite element analyses. Finite element parametric studies produced extensive fire performance data for the LSF wall panels in the form of load ratio versus time and critical hot flange (failure) temperature curves for eight wall configurations. This data demonstrated the superior fire performance of externally insulated LSF wall panels made of different steel grades and thicknesses. It also led to the development of a set of equations to predict the important relationship between the load ratio and the critical hot flange temperature of LSF wall studs. Finally this paper proposes a simplified method to predict the fire resistance rating of LSF walls based on the two proposed set of equations for the load ratio–hot flange temperature and the time–temperature relationships.

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We study two problems of online learning under restricted information access. In the first problem, prediction with limited advice, we consider a game of prediction with expert advice, where on each round of the game we query the advice of a subset of M out of N experts. We present an algorithm that achieves O(√(N/M)TlnN ) regret on T rounds of this game. The second problem, the multiarmed bandit with paid observations, is a variant of the adversarial N-armed bandit game, where on round t of the game we can observe the reward of any number of arms, but each observation has a cost c. We present an algorithm that achieves O((cNlnN) 1/3 T2/3+√TlnN ) regret on T rounds of this game in the worst case. Furthermore, we present a number of refinements that treat arm- and time-dependent observation costs and achieve lower regret under benign conditions. We present lower bounds that show that, apart from the logarithmic factors, the worst-case regret bounds cannot be improved.

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It is clear that where a disease affects men and women differently, research on potential therapies or cures should include both men and women and should examine whether the therapy is effective and safe for both sexes. In this paper we consider whether there is an appropriate role for law in regulating to ensure an examination of these sex- and gender-specific aspects in health research. We consider the relative advantages and disadvantages of pursuing a regulatory approach to achieving gender equity in the field of women's health by exploring first, the meaning of gender equity, and second, the regulatory mechanisms that might be best suited to promoting the goal of gender equity. Within our examination of different regulatory forms and mechanisms, we also interrogate the shift from gender-neutral provisions relating to sex in favor of generalized notions of fairness that remove any specific consideration of sex.

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Jackson (2005) developed a hybrid model of personality and learning, known as the learning styles profiler (LSP) which was designed to span biological, socio-cognitive, and experiential research foci of personality and learning research. The hybrid model argues that functional and dysfunctional learning outcomes can be best understood in terms of how cognitions and experiences control, discipline, and re-express the biologically based scale of sensation-seeking. In two studies with part-time workers undertaking tertiary education (N equals 137 and 58), established models of approach and avoidance from each of the three different research foci were compared with Jackson's hybrid model in their predictiveness of leadership, work, and university outcomes using self-report and supervisor ratings. Results showed that the hybrid model was generally optimal and, as hypothesized, that goal orientation was a mediator of sensation-seeking on outcomes (work performance, university performance, leader behaviours, and counterproductive work behaviour). Our studies suggest that the hybrid model has considerable promise as a predictor of work and educational outcomes as well as dysfunctional outcomes.

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Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an ffective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction odels are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads’ STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS) for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.

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The Australian Taxation Office (AT)) attempted to challenge both the private equity fund reliance on double tax agreements and the assertion that profits were capital in nature in its dispute with private equity group TPG. Failure to resolve the dispute resulted in the ATO issuing two taxation determinations: TD 2010/20 which states that the general anti-avoidance provisions can apply to arrangements designed to alter the intended effect of Australia's international tax agreements net; and TD 2010/21 which states that the profits on the sale of shares in a company group acquired in a leveraged buyout is assessable income. The purpose of this article is to determine the effectiveness of the administrative rulings regime as a regulatory strategy. This article, by using the TPG-Myer scenario and subsequent tax determinations as a case study, collects qualitative data which is then analysed (and triangulated) using tonal and thematic analysis. Contemporaneous commentary of private equity stakeholders, tax professionals, and media observations are analysed and evaluated within a framework of responsive regulation and utilising the current ATO compliance model. Contrary to the stated purpose of the ATO rulings regime to alleviate complexities in Australian taxation law and provide certainty to taxpayers, and despite the de facto law status afforded these rulings, this study found that the majority of private equity stakeholders and their advisors perceived that greater uncertainty was created by the two determinations. Thus, this study found that in the context of private equity fund investors, a responsive regulation measure in the form of taxation determinations was not effective.

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Purpose The aim of this study was to assess the predictive validity of three accelerometer prediction equations (Freedson et aL, 1997; Trost et aL, 1998; Puyau et al., 2002) for energy expenditure (EE) during overland walking and running in children and adolescents. Methods 45 healthy children and adolescents aged 10-18 completed the following protocol, each task 5-mins in duration, with a 5-min rest period in between; walking normally; walking briskly; running easily and running fast. During each task participants wore MTI (WAM 7164) Actigraphs on the left and right hips. VO2 was monitored breath by breath using the Cosmed K4b2 portable indirect calorimetry system. For each prediction equation, difference scores were calculated as EE measured minus EE predicted. The percentage of 1-min epochs correctly categorized as light (<3 METs), moderate (3-5.9 METs), and vigorous (≥6 METS) was also calculated. Results The Freedson and Trost equations consistently overestimated MET level. The level of overestimation was statistically significant across all tasks for the Freedson equation, and was significant for only the walking tasks for the Trost equation. The Puyau equation consistently underestimated AEE with the exception of the walking normally task. In terms of categorisation, the Freedson equation (72.8% agreement) demonstrated better agreement than the Puyau (60.6%). Conclusions These data suggest that the three accelerometer prediction equations do not accurately predict EE on a minute-by-minute basis in children and adolescents during overland walking and running. However, the cut points generated by these equations maybe useful for classifying activity as either, light, moderate, or vigorous.

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This article develops methods for spatially predicting daily change of dissolved oxygen (Dochange) at both sampled locations (134 freshwater sites in 2002 and 2003) and other locations of interest throughout a river network in South East Queensland, Australia. In order to deal with the relative sparseness of the monitoring locations in comparison to the number of locations where one might want to make predictions, we make a classification of the river and stream locations. We then implement optimal spatial prediction (ordinary and constrained kriging) from geostatistics. Because of their directed-tree structure, rivers and streams offer special challenges. A complete approach to spatial prediction on a river network is given, with special attention paid to environmental exceedances. The methodology is used to produce a map of Dochange predictions for 2003. Dochange is one of the variables measured as part of the Ecosystem Health Monitoring Program conducted within the Moreton Bay Waterways and Catchments Partnership.

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This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

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Current national reforms in Australian higher education have prioritised efforts to reduce educational disadvantage within a vernacular expression of neoliberal education policy. Student-equity policy in universities is enmeshed in a set of competitive student recruitment relations. This raises practice-based tensions as universities strive to meet specific institutional targets for low-socio-economic status (SES) and Indigenous student participation, whilst broadening participation more generally within the sector. This paper seeks empirically to trace the activation and appropriation of federal policy through two sites of higher education policy practices: a state government-sponsored equity practitioner body and two differently positioned universities, Dawson and McIllwraith, as they engage with low-SES schools. Working together Dorothy Smith’s insights into the textually mediated activation of local practices, Levinson and colleagues’ concept of the local appropriation of authorised policy, and Bourdieu’s notion of the contested field, we demonstrate that the generation of state level and institutionally specific policies for student-equity practices not only articulates to federal policy, but also appropriates the ruling relations of mandated policy. Further, the scope of these creative local appropriations is organised within a hierarchical academic field through which particular institutional imperatives, as well as the needs of low-SES students, are negotiated. The analysis demonstrates the vernacularisation of policy in the national rearticulation of global discourses, in appropriation at the level of the state body and in the practices of equity workers.