Modulation of equatorial Pacific westerly/easterly wind events by the Madden-Julian oscillation and convectively-coupled Rossby waves

Synoptic wind events in the equatorial Pacific strongly influence the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution. This paper characterizes the spatio-temporal distribution of Easterly (EWEs) and Westerly Wind Events (WWEs) and quantifies their relationship with intraseasonal and interannual large-scale climate variability. We unambiguously demonstrate that the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Convectively-coupled Rossby Waves (CRW) modulate both WWEs and EWEs occurrence probability. 86 % of WWEs occur within convective MJO and/or CRW phases and 83 % of EWEs occur within the suppressed phase of MJO and/or CRW. 41 % of WWEs and 26 % of EWEs are in particular associated with the combined occurrence of a CRW/MJO, far more than what would be expected from a random distribution (3 %). Wind events embedded within MJO phases also have a stronger impact on the ocean, due to a tendency to have a larger amplitude, zonal extent and longer duration. These findings are robust irrespective of the wind events and MJO/CRW detection methods. While WWEs and EWEs behave rather symmetrically with respect to MJO/CRW activity, the impact of ENSO on wind events is asymmetrical. The WWEs occurrence probability indeed increases when the warm pool is displaced eastward during El Niño events, an increase that can partly be related to interannual modulation of the MJO/CRW activity in the western Pacific. On the other hand, the EWEs modulation by ENSO is less robust, and strongly depends on the wind event detection method. The consequences of these results for ENSO predictability are discussed.

Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming

The destructive environmental and socio-economic impacts of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation1, 2 (ENSO) demand an improved understanding of how ENSO will change under future greenhouse warming. Robust projected changes in certain aspects of ENSO have been recently established3, 4, 5. However, there is as yet no consensus on the change in the magnitude of the associated sea surface temperature (SST) variability6, 7, 8, commonly used to represent ENSO amplitude1, 6, despite its strong effects on marine ecosystems and rainfall worldwide1, 2, 3, 4, 9. Here we show that the response of ENSO SST amplitude is time-varying, with an increasing trend in ENSO amplitude before 2040, followed by a decreasing trend thereafter. We attribute the previous lack of consensus to an expectation that the trend in ENSO amplitude over the entire twenty-first century is unidirectional, and to unrealistic model dynamics of tropical Pacific SST variability. We examine these complex processes across 22 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) database10, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The nine most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on the time-varying response and reveal that the non-unidirectional behaviour is linked to a longitudinal difference in the surface warming rate across the Indo-Pacific basin. Our results carry important implications for climate projections and climate adaptation pathways.

Mid-holocene and last glacial maximum climate simulations with the IPSL model-part I: comparing IPSLCM5A to IPSLCM4

The climates of the mid-Holocene (MH), 6,000 years ago, and of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21,000 years ago, have extensively been simulated, in particular in the framework of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparion Project. These periods are well documented by paleo-records, which can be used for evaluating model results for climates different from the present one. Here, we present new simulations of the MH and the LGM climates obtained with the IPSL_CM5A model and compare them to our previous results obtained with the IPSL_CM4 model. Compared to IPSL_CM4, IPSL_CM5A includes two new features: the interactive representation of the plant phenology and marine biogeochemistry. But one of the most important differences between these models is the latitudinal resolution and vertical domain of their atmospheric component, which have been improved in IPSL_CM5A and results in a better representation of the mid-latitude jet-streams. The Asian monsoon’s representation is also substantially improved. The global average mean annual temperature simulated for the pre-industrial (PI) period is colder in IPSL_CM5A than in IPSL_CM4 but their climate sensitivity to a CO2 doubling is similar. Here we show that these differences in the simulated PI climate have an impact on the simulated MH and LGM climatic anomalies. The larger cooling response to LGM boundary conditions in IPSL_CM5A appears to be mainly due to differences between the PMIP3 and PMIP2 boundary conditions, as shown by a short wave radiative forcing/feedback analysis based on a simplified perturbation method. It is found that the sensitivity computed from the LGM climate is lower than that computed from 2 × CO2 simulations, confirming previous studies based on different models. For the MH, the Asian monsoon, stronger in the IPSL_CM5A PI simulation, is also more sensitive to the insolation changes. The African monsoon is also further amplified in IPSL_CM5A due to the impact of the interactive phenology. Finally the changes in variability for both models and for MH and LGM are presented taking the example of the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is very different in the PI simulations. ENSO variability is damped in both model versions at the MH, whereas inconsistent responses are found between the two versions for the LGM. Part 2 of this paper examines whether these differences between IPSL_CM4 and IPSL_CM5A can be distinguished when comparing those results to palaeo-climatic reconstructions and investigates new approaches for model-data comparisons made possible by the inclusion of new components in IPSL_CM5A.

The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?

Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (“high-top”) and models that do not (“low-top”). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (Dec-Mar) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation/ENSO and the Quasi-biennial Oscillation/QBO) and how they relate to predictive skill on intra-seasonal to seasonal timescales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high-latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.

Stochastic simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation activity

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do inter-annual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948-2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880-2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948-1972 (3.4 events year(-1)) and two regimes of high activity in 1973-1989 (3.9 events) and 1990-2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880-1895 (3.4 events), low activity in 1896 1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918-1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880-1895), 0.076 (1896-1917), 0.197 (1918-1947) and 0.193 (1948-1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s, this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973-1989) and 0.510 (1990-2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales.

The Impacts of Inter-El Nino Variability on the Tropical Atlantic and Northeast Brazil Climate

In this study, observations and numerical simulations are used to investigate how different El Nino events affect the development of SST anomalies in the Atlantic and how this relates to the Brazilian northeast (NE) precipitation. The results show that different types of El Nino have different impacts on the SST anomalies of the equatorial and tropical South Atlantic but a similar SST response in the tropical North Atlantic. Strong and long (weak and short) El Ninos with the main heating source located in the eastern (central) Pacific generate cold (warm) anomalies in the cold tongue and Benguela upwelling regions during boreal winter and spring. When the SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial and tropical South Atlantic are cold (warm), the meridional SST gradient across the equator is positive (negative) and the ITCZ is not allowed (allowed) to move southward during the boreal spring; as a consequence, the precipitation is below (above) the average over the NE. Thus, strong and long (weak and short) El Ninos are followed by dry (wet) conditions in the NE. During strong and long El Ninos, changes in the Walker circulation over the Atlantic and in the Pacific-South Atlantic (PSA) wave train cause easterly wind anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic, which in turn activate the Bjerknes mechanism, establishing the cold tongue in boreal spring and summer. These easterly anomalies are also responsible for the Benguela upwelling. During short and weak El Ninos, westerly wind anomalies are present in the western equatorial Atlantic accompanied by warm anomalies in the eastern equatorial and tropical South Atlantic; a positive phase of the South Atlantic dipole develops during boreal winter. The simulations highlight the importance of ocean dynamics in establishing the correct slope of the equatorial thermocline and SST anomalies, which in turn determine the correct rainfall response over the NE.

Frequency of extreme rainfall events in Southern Brazil modulated by interannual and interdecadal variability

The frequency of extreme rainfall events in Southern Brazil is impacted by Ell Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes, especially in austral spring. There are two areas in which this impact is more significant: one is on the coast, where extreme events are more frequent during El Nino (EN) and the other one extends inland, where extreme events increase during EN and decrease during La Nina (LN). Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with severe rainfall in those areas are similar (opposite) to anomalous patterns characteristic of EN (LN) episodes, indicating why increase (decrease) of extreme events in EN (LN) episodes is favoured. The most recurrent precipitation patterns during extreme rainfall events in each of these areas are disclosed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and evidence the separation between extreme events in these areas: a severe precipitation event generally does not occur simultaneously in the coast and inland, although they may Occur inland and in the coastal region in sequence. Although EN predominantly enhances extreme rainfall, there are EN years in which fewer severe events occur than the average of neutral years, and also the enhancement of extreme rainfall is not uniform for different EN episodes, because the interdecadal non-ENSO variability also modulates significantly the frequency of extreme events in Southern Brazil. The inland region, which is more affected, shows increase (decrease) of extreme rainfall in association with the negative (positive) phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, with the negative (positive) phase of the Pacific Multidecadal Variability and with the positive (negative) phase of the Pacific Interdecadal Variability. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Evidence of a genetic bottleneck in an El Nino affected population of South American fur seals, Arctocephalus australis

The South American fur seal, Arctocephalus australis, was one of the earliest otariid seals to be exploited by humans: at least 6000 years ago on the Atlantic coast and 4000 on the Pacific coast of South America. More than 750,000 fur seals were killed in Uruguay until 1991. However, a climatological phenomenon-the severe 1997-1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-was responsible for the decline of 72% Of the Peruvian fur seal population due to starvation as a consequence of warming of sea-surface temperatures and primary productivity reduction. Currently, there is no precise information on global population size or on the species` conservation status. The present study includes the first bottleneck test for the Pacific and Atlantic populations of A. australis based on the analysis of seven microsatellite loci. Genetic bottleneck compromises the evolutionary potential of a population to respond to environmental changes. The perspective becomes even more alarming due to current global warming models that predict stronger and more frequent ENSO events in the future. Our analysis found moderate support for deviation from neutrality-equilibrium for the Pacific population of fur seals and none for the Atlantic population. This difference among population reflects different demographic histories, and is consistent with a greater reduction in population size in the Pacific. Such an event could be a result of the synergic effects of recurrent ENSO events and the anthropogenic impact (sealing and prey overfishing) on this population.

RailsTNE : En multimodal informationsplattform i ett interorganisatoriskt nätverk

Att utreda möjligheterna att etablera dataförsörjning riktade mot multimodala transporttjänster är idag av största intresse. Det är också intressant att försöka utnyttja de standarder som tagits fram när en dataförsörjningskedja ska etableras. Detta examensarbete genomfördes på Triona AB i Borlänge. Triona har utvecklat databasen Transport Network Engine (TNE), som idag används för att läsa in data från Nationella VägDataBasen (NVDB) och från skogsnäringen. Målet med arbetet var att ta fram en informationsmodell, som beskriver hur ett transportnät med nätanknutna data, som stödjer multimodala transporter och resor, kan lagras i TNE. En förlängning av målet blev att, utifrån ett givet användarfall, etablera dataförsörjning till TNE och lägga in de nödvändiga datamängderna. TNE bygger på ESRI:s produkter och funktionalitet för hantering av geografisk information och informationsmodell och datahantering i TNE baseras på internationella och svenska standarder. Idag finns all information om järnvägsnätet hos Banverket och det finns ingen koppling mellan Banverkets databas Baninformationssystemet (BIS) och Vägverkets databas NVDB. För att den kopplingen ska kunna ske, krävs att de båda verken kan samarbeta som två stora organisationer i ett väl fungerande nätverk. Ett så kallat interorganisatoriskt nätverk. Det akademiska syftet var att föreslå en arkitekturstrategi som stödjer ett sådant nätverk. Vi upptäckte att arkitekturstrategierna IRM och VBS är uppbyggda för att inrikta sig på enskilda organisationer, och det visade sig svårt att följa en specifik strategi inom ett nätverk med flera organisationer. I vårt användarfall måste nätverket mellan Banverket, Vägverket och Stora Enso samarbeta över organisationsgränserna. Därför behövs en strategi för ett interorganisatoriskt samarbete så att informationen kan struktureras på ett gemensamt sätt. Vi föreslår ett antal idealtypskriterier som vi utgått efter i struktureringen av systemarkitekturen. Den innehåller en informationsmodell för både väg- och järnvägsdata som följer standarden SS 63 70 04. Arbetet avgränsades till att endast innehålla de datamängder som användarfallet kräver. Vi har analyserat KombiTIF-rapporten som är ett avslutat projekt styrt av Banverket på uppdrag av Näringsdepartementet. Rapporten ger ett förslag på en lösning i form av en arena som ska göra data tillgänglig för användning. Vi väljer att se TNE-plattformen som en realisering av denna arena. Enligt vårt förslg så ska TNE-plattformen hämta in det mest grundläggande datat om järnvägsnät och nätanknuten data från BIS och standardiserad information om vägnät och nätanknuten data från NVDB via ett gränssnitt. I framtiden är det möjligt att på samma sätt ta in andra trafiknät såsom Sjöfartsverket, Luftfartsverket och Rikstrafiken. Vi arbetade efter en egen metod som vi tog fram med valda delar från andra metoder; kartläggning, perspektivanalys, verksamhetsanalys, utveckling och utvärdering. Arbetet genomfördes iterativt i de fem olika faserna.

Influence of hardwood, softwoodand fractionated pulp in a stratifiedthree-layered fine paper : Lövved, barrved och fraktionerad massa ochdess inverkan på ett treskiktat finpapper

Four different trials of stratified three-layered fine paper, of sulphate pulp, were performed to investigate if stratified fine fraction or fibres from birch can improve the properties of a paper compared to a reference sheet. All trials had five different scenarios and each scenario was calendered with different linear load. All sheets had a grammage of 80 g/m2.In the first trial, the paper contained birch, pine and filler of calciumcarbonate (marble), and was manufactured with the pilot paper machine XPM and the stratified headbox Formator at RCF (Stora Enso Research Center in Falun). The furnish consisted of 75% birch and 25% pine.The second trial contained coated sheets with paper from trial one as the base paper. The coating slip contained calciumcarbonate and clay and the amount was approximately 10-12 g/m2.The third trial, also with birch and pine but without filler, was performed at STFI (Skogsindustrins Tekniska Forskningsinstitut in Stockholm) with the laboratory scaled paper machine StratEx and the stratified headbox AQ-vanes. The furnish consisted of 75% birch and 25% pine, except for one scenario which contained of 75% pine and 25% birch.The last trial contained fractionated pulp of birch and pine and was performed at STFI. 50% was fine fraction and 50% was coarse fraction.This test does not show any clear benefits of making stratified sheets of birch and pine when it comes to properties such as bending stiffness, tensile index and surface smoothness. The retention can be improved with birch in the surface plies. It is possible that the formation can be improved with birch in the surface plies and pine in the middle ply. It is also possible that fine fraction in the surface plies and coarse fraction in the middle ply can improve both surface smoothness and bending stiffness. The results in this test are shown with confidence intervals which points out the difficulties of analysing sheets manufactured with a pilot paper machine or a laboratory scaled paper machine.

ICC-profilers funktionalitet vid byte av tryckfärgskvalitet

This degree theme work aims to evaluate the present ICC-profile and printing ink of Dalarnas Tidningar AB. The companyhas changed printing ink quality and wants to evaluate how the present ICC-profile work with the new printingink. Four different ICC-profiles were included in the comparison.One test printing was accomplished with two different separations. Two new ICC-profile was created, as a comparingmaterial. An densitometer was used to measure the technical parameters of the printing. IT8-charts and RGB-chartswas measured with spectrophotometer. La*b*-values, CMYK-values, graybalance curves, color deflections and colorgamuts was compared on screen and on the printed material.Materials from an earlier testprinting and evalution, made by Stora Enso Kvarnsveden AB 2003, was used to evaluatethe function of Dalarnas Tidningar AB´s ICC-profile with the present printing ink quality. The IT8-chart from todaystestprinting was oppened in a program for textediting to have access to La*b*- and CMYK values. The values from theearlier testprinting was supplied from Stora Enso Kvarnsveden AB.The result of this work shows that the ICC-profile from the company, compared with de other profiles, reproduce darkershadow regions which can make loss of details. An higher saturation is recieved in the red and yellow area while thegreen and blue area lose its intensity. The profile gave images which are some contrastless and with a flat reproduction.Today printing ink quality gives more saturation and intensity in the yellow and blue area compared with former printingink. The dark tone reproduces with decreased luminance, however.

Utvärdering av mätmetoder för att fastställa lackmängden vid offsettryckning on-line

This project has been made in cooperation with Stora Enso Research Centre Falun (Research). Thebackground of the project is that Research has customers who demand a method to measure the quantityof varnish online in offset printing. The aim with the project is to investigate if any test method correlateswith the quantity of varnish and to improve the understanding of the variables in the varnishingunit. The goal with the project is to develop a functional method. Two printing trials have beenperformed. The aim with the first trial was to investigate how different factors in the printer influencedthe quantity of varnish using reduced factoranalysis. The aim of the second trial was to analyse onlya reduced numbers of factors in the varnishing unit. The methods that were used to measure the varnishingquantity are weighing, IR-analysis, gloss, whiteness and brightness. Results from the projectshow that the weighing method does not work in this study due to basis weight variations of the sheets.The results from weighing did not agree with the results from the other methods. On the other handthere is a strong correation between the IR- and the glossmethods.

Utformning av operatörsverktyg för åskådliggörande av rörliga kostnader

Syftet med detta arbete som utförts på Kvarnsvedens pappersbruk i Borlänge har varit att framställa ett operatörsverktyg. Ett operatörsverktyg som ska åskådliggöra processens rörliga kostnader, som kan benämnas en produktkalkyl för stunden. Verktyget skall senare möjliggöra förbättrade utsikter för kontroll, styrning och uppföljning av rörliga kostnader inom företaget samt öka möjligheterna till att minska de rörliga kostnaderna som är kopplade till processen. Massafabriken på Kvarnsvedens pappersbruk och pappersmaskin 11 har utgjort arbetets grundläggande måltavlor för operatörsverktyget. Arbetet innefattade kartläggning och granskning av pappersprocessen för att skapa en så heltäckande bild av uppdragsbeskrivningen som möjligt. När processen studerats och processflöden kartlagts mer ingående påbörjades utvecklandet av operatörsverktyget. Vidare utfördes en litteraturundersökning för att urskilja potentiella handlingsalternativ vid utformningen av operatörsverktyget samt för en ökad förståelse för verksamheten och ämnesområdet. I dagsläget saknas direkt återkoppling, i realtid, för den kontinuerliga utvecklingen av de rörliga kostnaderna eftersom nuvarande uppföljning är baserad på månadsrapporter. Operatörsverktyget som arbetet utmynnade i kommer med hög sannolikhet vara av betydelse för utvecklingen av verksamheten på företaget. Operatörsverktyget kommer även att understödja både styrningen och kontrollen av processens rörliga kostnader. Förhoppningen är att verktyget skall fungera som ett hjälpmedel i arbetet med att optimera arbetet och processen. Några av de fördelar som operatörsverktyget förväntas ge är bland annat att operativa prestationer omedelbart kan kopplas till företagets resultat, ett snabbt synliggörande av exempelvis resultat vilket öppnar för faktabaserad beslutsstrategi samt att viktig information inte behöver gå förlorad. Operatörsverktyget kan framöver anpassas och utnyttjas på fler av verksamhetens pappersmaskiner.

Técnicas de detecção de Sniffers

A área de Detecção de Intrusão, apesar de muito pesquisada, não responde a alguns problemas reais como níveis de ataques, dim ensão e complexidade de redes, tolerância a falhas, autenticação e privacidade, interoperabilidade e padronização. Uma pesquisa no Instituto de Informática da UFRGS, mais especificamente no Grupo de Segurança (GSEG), visa desenvolver um Sistema de Detecção de Intrusão Distribuído e com características de tolerância a falhas. Este projeto, denominado Asgaard, é a idealização de um sistema cujo objetivo não se restringe apenas a ser mais uma ferramenta de Detecção de Intrusão, mas uma plataforma que possibilite agregar novos módulos e técnicas, sendo um avanço em relação a outros Sistemas de Detecção atualmente em desenvolvimento. Um tópico ainda não abordado neste projeto seria a detecção de sniffers na rede, vindo a ser uma forma de prevenir que um ataque prossiga em outras estações ou redes interconectadas, desde que um intruso normalmente instala um sniffer após um ataque bem sucedido. Este trabalho discute as técnicas de detecção de sniffers, seus cenários, bem como avalia o uso destas técnicas em uma rede local. As técnicas conhecidas são testadas em um ambiente com diferentes sistemas operacionais, como linux e windows, mapeando os resultados sobre a eficiência das mesmas em condições diversas.

Variabilidade espaço-temporal dos deslocamentos da linha de costa no Rio Grande do Sul

O comportamento antagônico dos deslocamentos anuais da linha de costa coincide com os eventos de ENSO. Foi observado também que a linha de costa tende a retornar a sua forma e posição anteriores, sazonalmente no litoral sul, anualmente no litoral médio e a cada 19 meses no litoral norte. A variabilidade espacial na resposta da linha de costa às mudanças sazonais e interanuais deve-se a uma combinação de fatores, incluindo granulometria, orientação da linha de costa e transporte sedimentar ao longo da costa. A análise regional da costa do RS permitiu classificá-la em quatro classes de manejo: (1) áreas de manejo crítico, ocorrem em 177 km ou 29% da costa do RS e consistem basicamente nas áreas urbanizadas, concentradas principalmente no litoral norte, (2) áreas prioritárias, ocorrem em 198 km ao longo do litoral médio, ocupando 32% da costa do RS, (3) áreas latentes ocorrem em 65 km ou 10% da costa, localizados no litoral sul entre o Hermenegildo e o Albardão e (4) áreas naturais, ao longo de 178 km ou 29% da costa gaúcha, encontradas no litoral central e sul.