EVALUATING INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE TO ASSIST FACILITY MANAGEMENT TOWARD SUSTAINABLE SYSTEMS

Civil infrastructure provides essential services for the development of both society and economy. It is very important to manage systems efficiently to ensure sound performance. However, there are challenges in information extraction from available data, which also necessitates the establishment of methodologies and frameworks to assist stakeholders in the decision making process. This research proposes methodologies to evaluate systems performance by maximizing the use of available information, in an effort to build and maintain sustainable systems. Under the guidance of problem formulation from a holistic view proposed by Mukherjee and Muga, this research specifically investigates problem solving methods that measure and analyze metrics to support decision making. Failures are inevitable in system management. A methodology is developed to describe arrival pattern of failures in order to assist engineers in failure rescues and budget prioritization especially when funding is limited. It reveals that blockage arrivals are not totally random. Smaller meaningful subsets show good random behavior. Additional overtime failure rate is analyzed by applying existing reliability models and non-parametric approaches. A scheme is further proposed to depict rates over the lifetime of a given facility system. Further analysis of sub-data sets is also performed with the discussion of context reduction. Infrastructure condition is another important indicator of systems performance. The challenges in predicting facility condition are the transition probability estimates and model sensitivity analysis. Methods are proposed to estimate transition probabilities by investigating long term behavior of the model and the relationship between transition rates and probabilities. To integrate heterogeneities, model sensitivity is performed for the application of non-homogeneous Markov chains model. Scenarios are investigated by assuming transition probabilities follow a Weibull regressed function and fall within an interval estimate. For each scenario, multiple cases are simulated using a Monte Carlo simulation. Results show that variations on the outputs are sensitive to the probability regression. While for the interval estimate, outputs have similar variations to the inputs. Life cycle cost analysis and life cycle assessment of a sewer system are performed comparing three different pipe types, which are reinforced concrete pipe (RCP) and non-reinforced concrete pipe (NRCP), and vitrified clay pipe (VCP). Life cycle cost analysis is performed for material extraction, construction and rehabilitation phases. In the rehabilitation phase, Markov chains model is applied in the support of rehabilitation strategy. In the life cycle assessment, the Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) tools are used in estimating environmental emissions for all three phases. Emissions are then compared quantitatively among alternatives to support decision making.

Infiltración y erosión

Esta monografía se enmarca en el manejo de los recursos hídricos en grandes redes de riego. En ella se describe el caso del río Mendoza, en la provincia homónima, el que fuera regulado en el año 2002. Este río nace en la Cordillera de los Andes, y presenta un importante arrastre de sólidos en suspensión, los que actualmente son retenidos en gran medida por el embalse Potrerillos. Las “aguas claras" que se erogan del embalse producen problemas erosivos, los que a su vez estarían ocasionando una mayor infiltración en los canales, y con ello un incremento en la recarga de acuíferos en ciertas zonas, así como problemas derivados del ascenso de la freática en otras. Se citan procesos ocurridos en otros distritos de riego frente a la regulación de los ríos, para concluir que el del río Mendoza es un caso susceptible de sufrir ciertos per-juicios, ya señalados en la Manifestación General de Impacto Ambiental del embalse Potrerillos, los que actualmente se están presentando en la red de riego. A partir de los estudios de sedimentología en el río Mendoza, se hace un análisis técnico de los fenómenos asociados al cambio de las características físicas del agua. Luego se describen los procesos erosivos, de acuerdo con la hidráulica clásica. Se define la Eficiencia de conducción (Ec), la infiltración en canales y su importancia en distintos distritos de riego, para luego mencionar los estudios realizados en el área del río Mendoza. Se analiza el desarrollo espacial que ha tenido el oasis, la escasa programación que tuvo su traza y la antigüedad de la misma. La descripción de los suelos permite concluir acerca de la importancia de su estructura y del papel que juegan las porciones finas, aún en minoría, que integran las distintas clases texturales con respecto a la Ec. Se describen los criterios con que se distribuye el agua en Mendoza, analizándose los caudales distribuidos actualmente, para relacionarlos con los niveles freáticos. Se mencionan además distintas acciones encaradas por la provincia para mitigar los efectos de las aguas claras. El análisis de los métodos utilizados para medir la Ec, permite apreciar el estado de la ciencia al respecto. Un análisis de las ventajas y de las desventajas de los distintos métodos, y de los resultados que con ellos se obtienen, permite concluir que el método de entradas y salidas es el que mejor se adapta en Mendoza, incluyendo además aspectos metodológicos de la medición. También se concluye en que la Ec. está insuficientemente evaluada; las fracciones finas de los suelos en muchos casos gravitan más que la textura frente a la Ec; por ello, se considera que el estudio de la Ec en las distintas áreas de manejo es necesario para entender los procesos de revenición y recarga de acuíferos, y que las pérdidas administrativas pueden gravitar más que la Ec. Se recomienda continuar con los trabajos de evaluación de Ec, al ser necesarios para todas las actividades en la cuenca; se desaconseja en este río el ajuste de modelos de predicción de Ec; las características de los suelos obligan a interpretar y aplicar con criterio la bibliografía internacional, pero aún así no se pueden hacer generalizaciones acerca de de la Ec en Mendoza.

Geochemistry and isotopes at DSDP Site 76-533

Concentrations and d34S and d13C values were determined on SO4, HCO3, CO2, and CH4 in interstitial water and gas samples from the uppermost 400 m of sediment on the Blake Outer Ridge. These measurements provide the basis for detailed interpretation of diagenetic processes associated with anaerobic respiration of electrons generated by organic- matter decomposition. The sediments are anaerobic at very shallow depths (<1 m) below the seafloor. Sulfate reduction is confined to the uppermost 15 m of sediment and results in a significant outflux of oxidized carbon from the sediments. At the base of the sulfate reduction zone, upward-diffusing CH4 is being oxidized, apparently in conjunction with SO4 reduction. CH4 generation by CO2 reduction is the most important metabolic process below the 15-m depth. CO2 removal is more rapid than CO2 input over the depth interval from 15 to 100 m, and results in a slight decrease in HCO3 concentration accompanied by a 40 per mil positive shift in d13C. The differences among coexisting CH4, CO2, and HCO3 are consistent with kinetic fractionation between CH4 and dissolved CO2, and equilibrium fractionation between CO2 and HCO3. At depths greater than 100 m, the rate of input of CO2 (d13C = -25 per mil) exceeds by 2 times the rate of removal of CO2 by conversion to CH4 (d13C of -60 to -65 per mil). This results in an increase of dissolved HCO3 concentration while maintaining d13C of HCO3 relatively constant at +10 per mil. Non-steady-state deposition has resulted in significantly higher organic carbon contents and unusually high (70 meq/l) pore-water alkalinities below 150 m. These high alkalinities are believed to be related more to spontaneous decarboxylation reactions than to biological processes. The general decrease in HCO3 concentration with constant d13C over the depth interval of 200 to 400 m probably reflects increased precipitation of authigenic carbonate. Input-output carbon isotope-mass balance calculations, and carbonate system equilibria in conjunction with observed CO2-CH4 ratios in the gas phase, independently suggest that CH4 concentrations on the order of 100 mmol/kg are present in the pore waters of Blake Outer Ridge sediments. This quantity of CH4 is believed to be insufficient to saturate pore waters and stabilize the CH4*6H2O gas hydrate. Results of these calculations are in conflict with the physical recovery of gas hydrate from 238 m, and with the indirect evidence (seismic reflectors, sediment frothing, slightly decreasing salinity and chlorinity with depth, and pressure core barrel observations) of gas-hydrate occurrence in these sediments. Resolution of this apparent conflict would be possible if CH4 generation were restricted to relatively thin (1-10 m) depth intervals, and did not occur uniformly at all depths throughout the sediment column, or if another methanogenic process (e.g., acetate fermentation) were a major contributor of gas.

Towards the Compilation of a Consistent Asian International I-O Table--The Report of the General Survey on National I-O Tables--

This paper reports on the survey of the characteristic features of national input-output tables compiled by the member countries of the Asian International Input-Output Table project. In making any inter-regional tables, the presentation format of each constituent table has to be carefully studied in order to design a common adjustment rule. The survey was conducted in the period of 2003-04, with invaluable cooperation from each collaborating institution of the project. Some analytical findings are drawn from the survey results, such as the similarity between each national table and the Japanese table, the responsiveness to the 1993 SNA, and the major areas of conflict regarding the presentation format.

Interindustrial Structure in the Asia-Pacific Region: Growth and Integration, by Using 2000 AIO Table

Over the past 20 years Asian countries have achieved a certain degree of economic growth and at the same time deepened spatial interdependence. In January 2006, IDE completed the 2000 Asian International Input-Output Table, which covers eight major East Asian countries/regions as well as Japan and the United States. Given the dynamic changes in the economies of East Asia, this paper attempts to summarize the characteristics and their patterns of change in industrial structures and trade structures of the countries/regions in the Asia-Pacific region from the three viewpoints of time, space, and industry, by using the AIO table for 1985, 1990, 1995, and 2000.

Rules of Origin and Local Content in East Asia

Rules of Origin (RoO) are an integral part of all trade rules. In order to be eligible for Common Effective Preferential Tariffs (CEPT) under AFTA and similar arrangements under the ASEAN-China FTA, a product must satisfy the conditions relative to local content. The paper tries to calculate local content as well as cumulative local content in East Asian economies, with use of the Asian International Input-Output Tables; it also investigates factors of change in local content by applying decomposition analysis. The paper finds that the cumulation rule increased local content of the electronics industry more significantly than local content of the automotive industry, and the contribution of the cumulation rule increased in the period 1990-2000, due to rising dependency on neighboring ASEAN countries and China.

Transport Sector and Regional Price Differentials: A SCGE Model for Chinese Provinces

With regression formulas replaced by equilibrium conditions, a spatial CGE model can substantially reduce data requirements. Detailed regional analyses are thus possible in countries where only limited regional statistics are available. While regional price differentials play important roles in multi-regional settings, transport does not receive much attention in existing models. This paper formulates a spatial CGE model that explicitly considers the transport sector and FOB/CIF prices. After describing the model, performance of our model is evaluated by comparing the benchmark equilibrium for China with survey-based regional I-O and interregional I-O tables for 1987. The structure of Chinese economies is summarized using information obtained from the benchmark equilibrium computation. This includes regional and sectoral production distributions and price differentials. The equilibrium for 1997 facilitates discussion of changes in regional economic structures that China has experienced in the decade.

Pitfalls of location choice analysis : the finished goods producer versus the intermediate goods producer

In literature related to firm location choice, estimation equations are derived from the model of finished goods producers, but producer types are generally not considered. Research presented in this paper shows that the use of equations derived from such models against intermediate goods producers results in several problems.

Trade Coefficients and the Role of Elasticity in a Spatial CGE Model Based on the Armington Assumption

The Armington Assumption in the context of multi-regional CGE models is commonly interpreted as follows: Same commodities with different origins are imperfect substitutes for each other. In this paper, a static spatial CGE model that is compatible with this assumption and explicitly considers the transport sector and regional price differentials is formulated. Trade coefficients, which are derived endogenously from the optimization behaviors of firms and households, are shown to take the form of a potential function. To investigate how the elasticity of substitutions affects equilibrium solutions, a simpler version of the model that incorporates three regions and two sectors (besides the transport sector) is introduced. Results indicate: (1) if commodities produced in different regions are perfect substitutes, regional economies will be either autarkic or completely symmetric and (2) if they are imperfect substitutes, the impact of elasticity on the price equilibrium system as well as trade coefficients will be nonlinear and sometimes very sensitive.

Cost Reduction Effects of "pseudo FTAs" in Asia -Application of a price model based on a multilateral I/O table-

This paper examines the repercussion effects on the production cost of industries in Asian countries when some countries eliminate tariffs and import commodity taxes on all imports. This kind of analysis is related in some sense to that measuring the effects of FTAs on economies, and thus may be considered as an analysis of “pseudo FTAs.” Examining a number of combinations of “pseudo FTAs” between China, Japan, and ASEAN, it is found that the case of China plus Japan plus ASEAN is the most effective “pseudo FTA” of the combinations in terms of production cost reduction. The method is a form of price model based on the Asian International Input-Output Table. Almost no studies on price models related to multilateral I/O tables have been implemented thus far.

Measuring smile curves in global value chains

The concept and logic of the "smile curve" in the context of global value chains has been widely used and discussed at the individual firm level, but rarely identified and investigated at the country and industry levels by using real data. This paper proposes an idea, based on an inter-country input-output model, to consistently measure both the strength and length of linkages between producers and consumers along global value chains. This idea allows for better identification and mapping of smile curves for countries and industries according to their positions and degrees of participation in a given conceptual value chain. Using the 1995-2011 World Input-Output Tables, several conceptual value chains are investigated, including exports of electrical and optical equipment from China and Mexico and exports of automobiles from Japan and Germany. The identified smile curves provide a very intuitive and visual image, which can significantly improve our understanding of the roles played by different countries and industries in global value chains. Further, the smile curves help identify the benefits gained by these countries and industries through their participation in global trade.

Application of the Extended Kalman filter to fuzzy modeling: Algorithms and practical implementation

Modeling phase is fundamental both in the analysis process of a dynamic system and the design of a control system. If this phase is in-line is even more critical and the only information of the system comes from input/output data. Some adaptation algorithms for fuzzy system based on extended Kalman filter are presented in this paper, which allows obtaining accurate models without renounce the computational efficiency that characterizes the Kalman filter, and allows its implementation in-line with the process

X-parameters based analytical design of non-linear microwave circuits Application to oscillator design

Resumen El diseño clásico de circuitos de microondas se basa fundamentalmente en el uso de los parámetros s, debido a su capacidad para caracterizar de forma exitosa el comportamiento de cualquier circuito lineal. La relación existente entre los parámetros s con los sistemas de medida actuales y con las herramientas de simulación lineal han facilitado su éxito y su uso extensivo tanto en el diseño como en la caracterización de circuitos y subsistemas de microondas. Sin embargo, a pesar de la gran aceptación de los parámetros s en la comunidad de microondas, el principal inconveniente de esta formulación reside en su limitación para predecir el comportamiento de sistemas no lineales reales. En la actualidad, uno de los principales retos de los diseñadores de microondas es el desarrollo de un contexto análogo que permita integrar tanto el modelado no lineal, como los sistemas de medidas de gran señal y los entornos de simulación no lineal, con el objetivo de extender las capacidades de los parámetros s a regímenes de operación en gran señal y por tanto, obtener una infraestructura que permita tanto la caracterización como el diseño de circuitos no lineales de forma fiable y eficiente. De acuerdo a esta filosofía, en los últimos años se han desarrollado diferentes propuestas como los parámetros X, de Agilent Technologies, o el modelo de Cardiff que tratan de proporcionar esta plataforma común en el ámbito de gran señal. Dentro de este contexto, uno de los objetivos de la presente Tesis es el análisis de la viabilidad del uso de los parámetros X en el diseño y simulación de osciladores para transceptores de microondas. Otro aspecto relevante en el análisis y diseño de circuitos lineales de microondas es la disposición de métodos analíticos sencillos, basados en los parámetros s del transistor, que permitan la obtención directa y rápida de las impedancias de carga y fuente necesarias para cumplir las especificaciones de diseño requeridas en cuanto a ganancia, potencia de salida, eficiencia o adaptación de entrada y salida, así como la determinación analítica de parámetros de diseño clave como el factor de estabilidad o los contornos de ganancia de potencia. Por lo tanto, el desarrollo de una formulación de diseño analítico, basada en los parámetros X y similar a la existente en pequeña señal, permitiría su uso en aplicaciones no lineales y supone un nuevo reto que se va a afrontar en este trabajo. Por tanto, el principal objetivo de la presente Tesis consistiría en la elaboración de una metodología analítica basada en el uso de los parámetros X para el diseño de circuitos no lineales que jugaría un papel similar al que juegan los parámetros s en el diseño de circuitos lineales de microondas. Dichos métodos de diseño analíticos permitirían una mejora significativa en los actuales procedimientos de diseño disponibles en gran señal, así como una reducción considerable en el tiempo de diseño, lo que permitiría la obtención de técnicas mucho más eficientes. Abstract In linear world, classical microwave circuit design relies on the s-parameters due to its capability to successfully characterize the behavior of any linear circuit. Thus the direct use of s-parameters in measurement systems and in linear simulation analysis tools, has facilitated its extensive use and success in the design and characterization of microwave circuits and subsystems. Nevertheless, despite the great success of s-parameters in the microwave community, the main drawback of this formulation is its limitation in the behavior prediction of real non-linear systems. Nowadays, the challenge of microwave designers is the development of an analogue framework that allows to integrate non-linear modeling, large-signal measurement hardware and non-linear simulation environment in order to extend s-parameters capabilities to non-linear regimen and thus, provide the infrastructure for non-linear design and test in a reliable and efficient way. Recently, different attempts with the aim to provide this common platform have been introduced, as the Cardiff approach and the Agilent X-parameters. Hence, this Thesis aims to demonstrate the X-parameter capability to provide this non-linear design and test framework in CAD-based oscillator context. Furthermore, the classical analysis and design of linear microwave transistorbased circuits is based on the development of simple analytical approaches, involving the transistor s-parameters, that are able to quickly provide an analytical solution for the input/output transistor loading conditions as well as analytically determine fundamental parameters as the stability factor, the power gain contours or the input/ output match. Hence, the development of similar analytical design tools that are able to extend s-parameters capabilities in small-signal design to non-linear ap- v plications means a new challenge that is going to be faced in the present work. Therefore, the development of an analytical design framework, based on loadindependent X-parameters, constitutes the core of this Thesis. These analytical nonlinear design approaches would enable to significantly improve current large-signal design processes as well as dramatically decrease the required design time and thus, obtain more efficient approaches.