Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.

Parameterisation of bivalve functional traits for mechanistic eco-physiological dynamic energy budget (DEB) models

Mechanistic models such as those based on dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory are emergent ecomechanics tools to investigate the extent of fitness in organisms through changes in life history traits as explained by bioenergetic principles. The rapid growth in interest around this approach originates from the mechanistic characteristics of DEB, which are based on a number of rules dictating the use of mass and energy flow through organisms. One apparent bottleneck in DEB applications comes from the estimations of DEB parameters which are based on mathematical and statistical methods (covariation method). The parameterisation process begins with the knowledge of some functional traits of a target organism (e. g. embryo, sexual maturity and ultimate body size, feeding and assimilation rates, maintenance costs), identified from the literature or laboratory experiments. However, considering the prominent role of the mechanistic approach in ecology, the reduction of possible uncertainties is an important objective. We propose a revaluation of the laboratory procedures commonly used in ecological studies to estimate DEB parameters in marine bivalves. Our experimental organism was Brachidontes pharaonis. We supported our proposal with a validation exercise which compared life history traits as obtained by DEBs (implemented with parameters obtained using classical laboratory methods) with the actual set of species traits obtained in the field. Correspondence between the 2 approaches was very high (>95%) with respect to estimating both size and fitness. Our results demonstrate a good agreement between field data and model output for the effect of temperature and food density on age-size curve, maximum body size and total gamete production per life span. The mechanistic approach is a promising method of providing accurate predictions in a world that is under in creasing anthropogenic pressure.

Temporal changes in plankton of the North Sea: community shifts and environmental drivers

This paper analyses long-term and seasonal changes in the North Sea plankton community during the period 1970 to 2008. Based on Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) data covering 38 yr, major changes in both phytoplankton and zooplankton abundance and community structure were identified. Regime changes were detected around 1978, 1989 and 1998. The first 2 changes have been discussed in the literature and are defined as a cold episodic event (1978) and a regime shift towards a warm dynamic regime (1989). The effect of these 2 regime changes on plankton indicators was assessed and checked against previous studies. The 1998 change represents a shift in the abundance and seasonal patterns of dinoflagellates and the dominant zooplankton group, the neritic copepods. Furthermore, environmental factors such as air temperature, wind speed and the North Atlantic water inflow were identified as potential drivers of change in seasonal patterns, and the most-likely environmental causes for detected changes were assessed. We suggest that a change in the balance of dissolved nutrients driven by these environmental factors was the cause of the latest change in plankton community structure, which in turn could have affected the North Sea fish community.

Climate-induced changes in the North Sea Decapoda over the last 60 years

In the mid-1980s the North Sea ecosystem experienced a climate-induced regime shift that has favoured decapods and detritivores in the benthos and jellyfish in the plankton over commercial fisheries. Here, we investigate changes among the Decapoda in the North Sea plankton over the last 60 yr. Decapods are important predators in the plankton and the benthos where they can influence productivity and structure communities. In the North Sea it has been suggested that a climate-driven increase in decapod abundance has been important in propagating the climate signal through the North Sea food web. We show that climate-induced changes in the Decapoda in the central and southern North Sea include the presence of new warm-water taxa, changes in the abundance and proportions of commercial species of shrimp, and an earlier occurrence of decapod larvae in the plankton compared with the period 1981–1983. Notable amongst the warm-water taxa appearing in the North Sea is the predatory swimming crab Polybius henslowii that can swarm in large numbers when conditions are favourable and that is known to exhibit range shifts in response to fluctuations in hydroclimatic forcing. We suggest that climate-induced changes among North Sea decapods have played an important role in the trophic amplification of a climate signal and the development of the new North Sea dynamic regime. Understanding these changes is likely to be imperative for a successful ecosystem-based approach to the future management of North Sea fisheries at a time of climate change.

Biodiversity as a dynamic variable in the Gulf of Maine continuous plankton recorder transect

Studies relating biodiversity to ecosystem processes typically do not take into account changes in biodiversity through time. Marine systems are highly dynamic, with biodiversity changing at diel, seasonal and inter-decadal timescales. We examined the dynamics of biodiversity in the Gulf of Maine pelagic zooplankton community. Taxonomic data came from the Gulf of Maine continuous plankton recorder (CPR) transect, spanning the years 1961–2006. The CPR transect also contains coincident information on temperature and phytoplankton biomass (measured by the phytoplankton color index). Taxonomic richness varied at all timescales considered. The relationships between temperature and richness, and between phytoplankton and richness, also depended on temporal scale. The temperature–richness relationship was monotonic at the multi-decadal scale, and tended to be hump-shaped at finer scales; the productivity–richness relationship was hump-shaped at the multi-decadal scale, and tended to be monotonic at finer scales. Seasonal biodiversity dynamics were linked to temperature; inter-decadal biodiversity dynamics were linked to phytoplankton.

Simulation of Dynamic Operation of a Single-Cylinder Two-Stroke Engine

Presented is a study that expands the body of knowledge on the effect of in-cycle speed fluctuations on performance of small engines. It uses the engine and drivetrain models developed previously by Callahan, et al. (1) to examine a variety of engines. The predicted performance changes due to drivetrain effects are shown in each case, and conclusions are drawn from those results. The single-cylinder, high performance four-stroke engine showed significant changes in predicted performance compared to the prediction with zero speed fluctuation in the model. Measured speed fluctuations from a firing Yamaha YZ426 engine were applied to the simulation in addition to data from a simple free mass model. Both methods predicted similar changes in performance. The multiple-cylinder, high performance two-stroke engine also showed significant changes in performance depending on the firing configuration. With both engines, the change in performance diminished with increasing mean engine speed. The low output, single-cylinder two-stroke engine simulation showed only a negligible change in performance, even with high amplitude speed fluctuations. Because the torque versus engine speed characteristic for the engine was so flat, this was expected. The cross-charged, multi-cylinder two-stroke engine also showed only a negligible change in performance. In this case, the combination of a relatively high inertia rotating assembly and the multiple cylinder firing events within the revolution smoothing the torque pulsations reduced the speed fluctuation amplitude itself.

How optimal life history changes with the community size-spectrum

This paper derives optimal life histories for fishes or other animals in relation to the size spectrum of the ecological community in which they are both predators and prey. Assuming log-linear size-spectra and well known scaling laws for feeding and mortality, we first construct the energetics of the individual. From these we find, using dynamic programming, the optimal allocation of energy between growth and reproduction as well as the trade-off between offspring size and numbers. Optimal strategies were found to be strongly dependent on size spectrum slope. For steep size spectra (numbers declining rapidly with size), determinate growth was optimal and allocation to somatic growth increased rapidly with increasing slope. However, restricting reproduction to a fixed mating season changed optimal allocations to give indeterminate growth approximating a von Bertalanffy trajectory. The optimal offspring size was as small as possible given other restrictions such as newborn starvation mortality. For shallow size spectra, finite optimal maturity size required a decline in fitness for large size or age. All the results are compared with observed size spectra of fish communities to show their consistency and relevance.

Neuromuscular adaptation during skill acquisition on a two degree-of-freedom target-acquisition task: Dynamic movement

In this experiment, we examined the extent to which the spatiotemporal reorganization of muscle synergies mediates skill acquisition on a two degree-of-freedom (df) target-acquisition task. Eight participants completed five practice sessions on consecutive days. During each session they practiced movements to eight target positions presented by a visual display. The movements required combinations of flexion/extension and pronation/supination of the elbow joint complex. During practice sessions, eight targets displaced 5.4 cm from the start position ( representing joint excursions of 54) were presented 16 times. During pre- and posttests, participants acquired the targets at two distances (3.6 cm [36 degrees] and 7.2 cm [72 degrees]). EMG data were recorded from eight muscles contributing to the movements during the pre- and posttests. Most targets were acquired more rapidly after the practice period. Performance improvements were, in most target directions, accompanied by increases in the smoothness of the movement trajectories. When target acquisition required movement in both dfs, there were also practice-related decreases in the extent to which the trajectories deviated from a direct path to the target. The contribution of monofunctional muscles ( those producing torque in a single df) increased with practice during movements in which they acted as agonists. The activity in bifunctional muscles ( those contributing torque in both dfs) remained at pretest levels in most movements. The results suggest that performance gains were mediated primarily by changes in the spatial organization of muscles synergies. These changes were expressed most prominently in terms of the magnitude of activation of the monofunctional muscles.

Atomistic Insights into Rhodopsin Activation from a Dynamic Model

Rhodopsin, the light sensitive receptor responsible for blue-green vision, serves as a prototypical G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR). Upon light absorption, it undergoes a series of conformational changes that lead to the active form, metarhodopsin II (META II), initiating a signaling cascade through binding to the G protein transducin (G(t)). Here, we first develop a structural model of META II by applying experimental distance restraints to the structure of lumi-rhodopsin (LUMI), an earlier intermediate. The restraints are imposed by using a combination of biased molecular dynamics simulations and perturbations to an elastic network model. We characterize the motions of the transmembrane helices in the LUMI-to-META II transition and the rearrangement of interhelical hydrogen bonds. We then simulate rhodopsin activation in a dynamic model to study the path leading from LUMI to our META II model for wild-type rhodopsin and a series of mutants. The simulations show a strong correlation between the transition dynamics and the pharmacological phenotypes of the mutants. These results help identify the molecular mechanisms of activation in both wild type and mutant rhodopsin. While static models can provide insights into the mechanisms of ligand recognition and predict ligand affinity, a dynamic model of activation could be applicable to study the pharmacology of other GPCRs and their ligands, offering a key to predictions of basal activity and ligand efficacy.

Exoplanets or Dynamic Atmospheres? The Radial Velocity and Line Shape Variations of 51 Pegasi and tau Bootis

The stars 51 Pegasi and tau Bootis show radial velocity variations that have been interpreted as resulting from companions with roughly Jovian mass and orbital periods of a few days. Gray and Gray & Hatzes reported that the radial velocity signal of 51 Peg is synchronous with variations in the shape of the line lambda 6253 Fe I; thus, they argue that the velocity signal arises not from a companion of planetary mass but from dynamic processes in the atmosphere of the star, possibly nonradial pulsations. Here we seek confirming evidence for line shape or strength variations in both 51 Peg and tau Boo, using R = 50,000 observations taken with the Advanced Fiber Optic Echelle. Because of our relatively low spectral resolution, we compare our observations with Gray's line bisector data by fitting observed line profiles to an expansion in terms of orthogonal (Hermite) functions. To obtain an accurate comparison, we model the emergent line profiles from rotating and pulsating stars, taking the instrumental point-spread function into account. We describe this modeling process in detail. We find no evidence for line profile or strength variations at the radial velocity period in either 51 Peg or in tau Boo. For 51 Peg, our upper limit for line shape variations with 4.23 day periodicity is small enough to exclude with 10 sigma confidence the bisector curvature signal reported by Gray & Hatzes; the bisector span and relative line depth signals reported by Gray are also not seen, but in this case with marginal (2 sigma ) confidence. We cannot, however, exclude pulsations as the source of 51 Peg's radial velocity variation because our models imply that line shape variations associated with pulsations should be much smaller than those computed by Gray & Hatzes; these smaller signals are below the detection limits both for Gray & Hatzes's data and for our own. tau Boo's large radial velocity amplitude and v sin i make it easier to test for pulsations in this star. Again we find no evidence for periodic line shape changes, at a level that rules out pulsations as the source of the radial velocity variability. We conclude that the planet hypothesis remains the most likely explanation for the existing data.

The use of a dynamic truck-trailer drive-by system to monitor bridge damping

Bridge structures are continuously subject to degradation due to the environment, ageing and excess loading. Periodic monitoring of bridges is therefore a key part of any maintenance strategy as it can give early warning if a bridge becomes unsafe. This article investigates an alternative method for the monitoring of bridge dynamic behaviour: a truck-trailer vehicle system, with accelerometers fitted to the axles of the trailer. The method aims to detect changes in the damping of a bridge, which may indicate the existence of damage. A simplified vehicle-bridge interaction model is used in theoretical simulations to assess the effectiveness of the method in detecting those changes. The influence of road profile roughness on the vehicle vibration is overcome by recording accelerations from both axles of a trailer and then analysing the spectra of the difference in the accelerations between the two axles. The effectiveness of the approach in detecting damage simulated as a loss in stiffness is also investigated. In addition, the sensitivity of the approach to the vehicle speed, road roughness class, bridge span length, changes in the equal axle properties and noise is investigated.

Non-convex dynamic economic/environmental dispatch with plug-in electric vehicle loads

Electric vehicles are a key prospect for future transportation. A large penetration of electric vehicles has the potential to reduce the global fossil fuel consumption and hence the greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. However, the additional stochastic loads imposed by plug-in electric vehicles will possibly introduce significant changes to existing load profiles. In his paper, electric vehicles loads are integrated into an 5-unit system using a non-convex dynamic dispatch model. The actual infrastructure characteristics including valve-point effects, load balance constrains and transmission loss have been included in the model. Multiple load profiles are comparatively studied and compared in terms of economic and environmental impacts in order o identify patterns to charge properly. The study as expected shows ha off-peak charging is the best scenario with respect to using less fuels and producing less emissions.

Can the scaling behavior of electric conductivity be used to probe the self-organizational changes in solution with respect to the ionic liquid structure? The case of [C8MIM][NTf2]

Electrical conductivity of the supercooled ionic liquid [C8MIM][NTf2], determined as a function of temperature and pressure, highlights strong differences in its ionic transport behavior between low and high temperature regions. To date, the crossover effect which is very well known for low molecular van der Waals liquids has been rarely described for classical ionic liquids. This finding highlights that the thermal fluctuations could be dominant mechanisms driving the dramatic slowing down of ion motions near Tg. An alternative way to analyze separately low and high temperature dc-conductivity data using a density scaling approach was then proposed. Based on which a common value of the scaling exponent [gamma] = 2.4 was obtained, indicating that the applied density scaling is insensitive to the crossover effect. By comparing the scaling exponent [gamma] reported herein along with literature data for other ionic liquids, it appears that [gamma] decreases by increasing the alkyl chain length on the 1-alkyl-3-methylimidazolium-based ionic liquids. This observation may be related to changes in the interaction between ions in solution driven by an increase in the van der Waals type interaction by increasing the alkyl chain length on the cation. This effect may be related to changes in the ionic liquid nanostructural organization with the alkyl chain length on the cation as previously reported in the literature based on molecular dynamic simulations. In other words, the calculated scaling exponent [gamma] may be then used as a key parameter to probe the interaction and/or self-organizational changes in solution with respect to the ionic liquid structure.

Dynamic modelling of die melt temperature profile in polymer extrusion: Effects of process settings, screw geometry and material

Extrusion is one of the major methods for processing polymeric materials and the thermal homogeneity of the process output is a major concern for manufacture of high quality extruded products. Therefore, accurate process thermal monitoring and control are important for product quality control. However, most industrial extruders use single point thermocouples for the temperature monitoring/control although their measurements are highly affected by the barrel metal wall temperature. Currently, no industrially established thermal profile measurement technique is available. Furthermore, it has been shown that the melt temperature changes considerably with the die radial position and hence point/bulk measurements are not sufficient for monitoring and control of the temperature across the melt flow. The majority of process thermal control methods are based on linear models which are not capable of dealing with process nonlinearities. In this work, the die melt temperature profile of a single screw extruder was monitored by a thermocouple mesh technique. The data obtained was used to develop a novel approach of modelling the extruder die melt temperature profile under dynamic conditions (i.e. for predicting the die melt temperature profile in real-time). These newly proposed models were in good agreement with the measured unseen data. They were then used to explore the effects of process settings, material and screw geometry on the die melt temperature profile. The results showed that the process thermal homogeneity was affected in a complex manner by changing the process settings, screw geometry and material.

Experimental Investigation of the Detection of Bridge Dynamic Parameters using a Moving Vehicle

This paper investigates the feasibility of using an instrumented vehicle to detect bridge dynamic parameters, such as natural frequency and structural damping, in a scaled laboratory experiment. In the experiment, a scaled vehicle model crosses a steel girder which has been adopted as the bridge model. The bridge model also includes a scaled road surface profile. The effects of varying vehicle model mass and speed are investigated. The damping of the girder is also varied. The bridge frequency and changes in damping are detected in the vehicle acceleration response in the presence of a rough road surface profile.