Knowledge acquisition by networks of interacting agents in the presence of observation errors

In this work we investigate knowledge acquisition as performed by multiple agents interacting as they infer, under the presence of observation errors, respective models of a complex system. We focus the specific case in which, at each time step, each agent takes into account its current observation as well as the average of the models of its neighbors. The agents are connected by a network of interaction of Erdos-Renyi or Barabasi-Albert type. First, we investigate situations in which one of the agents has a different probability of observation error (higher or lower). It is shown that the influence of this special agent over the quality of the models inferred by the rest of the network can be substantial, varying linearly with the respective degree of the agent with different estimation error. In case the degree of this agent is taken as a respective fitness parameter, the effect of the different estimation error is even more pronounced, becoming superlinear. To complement our analysis, we provide the analytical solution of the overall performance of the system. We also investigate the knowledge acquisition dynamic when the agents are grouped into communities. We verify that the inclusion of edges between agents (within a community) having higher probability of observation error promotes the loss of quality in the estimation of the agents in the other communities.

Haplotype distribution of five nuclear genes based on network genealogies and Bayesian inference indicates that Trypanosoma cruzi hybrid strains are polyphyletic

Chagas disease is still a major public health problem in Latin America. Its causative agent, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be typed into three major groups, T. cruzi I, T. cruzi II and hybrids. These groups each have specific genetic characteristics and epidemiological distributions. Several highly virulent strains are found in the hybrid group; their origin is still a matter of debate. The null hypothesis is that the hybrids are of polyphyletic origin, evolving independently from various hybridization events. The alternative hypothesis is that all extant hybrid strains originated from a single hybridization event. We sequenced both alleles of genes encoding EF-1 alpha, actin and SSU rDNA of 26 T. cruzi strains and DHFR-TS and TR of 12 strains. This information was used for network genealogy analysis and Bayesian phylogenies. We found T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II to be monophyletic and that all hybrids had different combinations of T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II haplotypes plus hybrid-specific haplotypes. Bootstrap values (networks) and posterior probabilities (Bayesian phylogenies) of clades supporting the monophyly of hybrids were far below the 95% confidence interval, indicating that the hybrid group is polyphyletic. We hypothesize that T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II are two different species and that the hybrids are extant representatives of independent events of genome hybridization, which sporadically have sufficient fitness to impact on the epidemiology of Chagas disease.

Correlation of Modified Natural Rubber Properties by Artificial Neural Networks

Natural rubber (NR) is a raw material largely used by the modern industry; however, it is common that chemical modifications must be made to NR in order to improve properties such as hydrophobicity or mechanical resistance. This work deals with the correlation of properties of NR modified with dimethylaminoethylmethacrylate or methylmethacrylate as grafting agents. Dynamic-mechanical behavior and stress/strain relations are very important properties because they furnish essential characteristics of the material such as glass transition temperature and rupture point. These properties are concerned with different physical principles; for this reason, normally they are not related to each other. This work showed that they can be correlated by artificial neural networks (ANN). So, from one type of assay, the properties that as a rule only could be obtained from the other can be extracted by ANN correlation. POLYM. ENG. SCI., 49:499-505, 2009. (c) 2009 Society of Plastics Engineers

Gait Pattern Adaptation for an Active Lower-Limb Orthosis Based on Neural Networks

This work deals with neural network (NN)-based gait pattern adaptation algorithms for an active lower-limb orthosis. Stable trajectories with different walking speeds are generated during an optimization process considering the zero-moment point (ZMP) criterion and the inverse dynamic of the orthosis-patient model. Additionally, a set of NNs is used to decrease the time-consuming analytical computation of the model and ZMP. The first NN approximates the inverse dynamics including the ZMP computation, while the second NN works in the optimization procedure, giving an adapted desired trajectory according to orthosis-patient interaction. This trajectory adaptation is added directly to the trajectory generator, also reproduced by a set of NNs. With this strategy, it is possible to adapt the trajectory during the walking cycle in an on-line procedure, instead of changing the trajectory parameter after each step. The dynamic model of the actual exoskeleton, with interaction forces included, is used to generate simulation results. Also, an experimental test is performed with an active ankle-foot orthosis, where the dynamic variables of this joint are replaced in the simulator by actual values provided by the device. It is shown that the final adapted trajectory follows the patient intention of increasing the walking speed, so changing the gait pattern. (C) Koninklijke Brill NV, Leiden, 2011

FWM Constraints Management for Lightpath Establishment in GMPLS Networks

In all-optical networks, management of physical layer restrictions should collaborate in lightpath establishment. Label-Switched Path validation in Generalized MultiProtocol Label Switching on Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing network requires the treatment of the physical impairment-related parameters along the provisioned route. In this paper we propose, for the first time in our view, the generation of an optical layer database by simulation that specifically characterizes the dynamic FWM impairments for the lightpaths provisioned in a GMPLS/DWDM network.

A survey on key management mechanisms for distributed Wireless Sensor Networks

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) have a vast field of applications, including deployment in hostile environments. Thus, the adoption of security mechanisms is fundamental. However, the extremely constrained nature of sensors and the potentially dynamic behavior of WSNs hinder the use of key management mechanisms commonly applied in modern networks. For this reason, many lightweight key management solutions have been proposed to overcome these constraints. In this paper, we review the state of the art of these solutions and evaluate them based on metrics adequate for WSNs. We focus on pre-distribution schemes well-adapted for homogeneous networks (since this is a more general network organization), thus identifying generic features that can improve some of these metrics. We also discuss some challenges in the area and future research directions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The choice of the best among the shortest routes in transparent optical networks

This work introduces the problem of the best choice among M combinations of the shortest paths for dynamic provisioning of lightpaths in all-optical networks. To solve this problem in an optimized way (shortest path and load balance), a new fixed routing algorithm, named Best among the Shortest Routes (BSR), is proposed. The BSR`s performance is compared in terms of blocking probability and network utilization with Dijkstra`s shortest path algorithm and others algorithms proposed in the literature. The evaluated scenarios include several representative topologies for all-optical networking and different wavelength conversion architectures. For all studied scenarios, BSR achieved superior performance. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic models for computer viruses

Computer viruses are an important risk to computational systems endangering either corporations of all sizes or personal computers used for domestic applications. Here, classical epidemiological models for disease propagation are adapted to computer networks and, by using simple systems identification techniques a model called SAIC (Susceptible, Antidotal, Infectious, Contaminated) is developed. Real data about computer viruses are used to validate the model. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

A Dynamic Model of Hand-and-Foot Syndrome in Patients Receiving Capecitabine

For the purpose of developing a longitudinal model to predict hand-and-foot syndrome (HFS) dynamics in patients receiving capecitabine, data from two large phase III studies were used. Of 595 patients in the capecitabine arms, 400 patients were randomly selected to build the model, and the other 195 were assigned for model validation. A score for risk of developing HFS was modeled using the proportional odds model, a sigmoidal maximum effect model driven by capecitabine accumulation as estimated through a kinetic-pharmacodynamic model and a Markov process. The lower the calculated creatinine clearance value at inclusion, the higher was the risk of HFS. Model validation was performed by visual and statistical predictive checks. The predictive dynamic model of HFS in patients receiving capecitabine allows the prediction of toxicity risk based on cumulative capecitabine dose and previous HFS grade. This dose-toxicity model will be useful in developing Bayesian individual treatment adaptations and may be of use in the clinic.

The use of stochastic dynamic programming in optimal landscape reconstruction for metapopulations

A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

Elements of a methodology to assess the alignment of core-values in collaborative networks

Collaborative networks are typically formed by heterogeneous and autonomous entities, and thus it is natural that each member has its own set of core-values. Since these values somehow drive the behaviour of the involved entities, the ability to quickly identify partners with compatible or common core-values represents an important element for the success of collaborative networks. However, tools to assess or measure the level of alignment of core-values are lacking. Since the concept of 'alignment' in this context is still ill-defined and shows a multifaceted nature, three perspectives are discussed. The first one uses a causal maps approach in order to capture, structure, and represent the influence relationships among core-values. This representation provides the basis to measure the alignment in terms of the structural similarity and influence among value systems. The second perspective considers the compatibility and incompatibility among core-values in order to define the alignment level. Under this perspective we propose a fuzzy inference system to estimate the alignment level, since this approach allows dealing with variables that are vaguely defined, and whose inter-relationships are difficult to define. Another advantage provided by this method is the possibility to incorporate expert human judgment in the definition of the alignment level. The last perspective uses a belief Bayesian network method, and was selected in order to assess the alignment level based on members' past behaviour. An example of application is presented where the details of each method are discussed.

Dynamic artificial neural network for electricity market prices forecast

This paper presents an artificial neural network applied to the forecasting of electricity market prices, with the special feature of being dynamic. The dynamism is verified at two different levels. The first level is characterized as a re-training of the network in every iteration, so that the artificial neural network can able to consider the most recent data at all times, and constantly adapt itself to the most recent happenings. The second level considers the adaptation of the neural network’s execution time depending on the circumstances of its use. The execution time adaptation is performed through the automatic adjustment of the amount of data considered for training the network. This is an advantageous and indispensable feature for this neural network’s integration in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to the market negotiating players of MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets).

Logistic optimization in tourism networks

55th European Regional Science Association Congress, Lisbon, Portugal (25-28 August 2015).

Dynamic QoS-Aware coalition formation

Users of wireless devices increasingly demand access to multimedia content with speci c quality of service requirements. Users might tolerate di erent levels of service, or could be satis ed with di erent quality combinations choices. However, multimedia processing introduces heavy resource requirements on the client side. Our work tries to address the growing demand on resources and performance requirements, by allowing wireless nodes to cooperate with each other to meet resource allocation requests and handle stringent constraints, opportunistically taking advantage of the local ad-hoc network that is created spontaneously, as nodes move in range of each other, forming a temporary coalition for service execution. Coalition formation is necessary when a single node cannot execute a speci c service, but it may also be bene cial when groups perform more e ciently when compared to a single s node performance.