Studies on Energy Exchange and Upper Ocean Thermat Structure in Arabian Sea and Heat Transport in Northern Indian Ocean

The thesis focused Studies on Energy Exchange and Upper Ocean Thermal Structure in Arabian Sea and Heat Transport in Northern Indian Ocean. The present thesis is an attempt to understand the upper ocean thermal characteristics at selected areas in the western and eastern Arabian Sea in relation to surface energy exchange and dynamics, on a climatological basis. It is also aimed to examine, the relative importance of different processes in the evolution of SST at the western and eastern Arabian Sea. Short-term variations of energy exchange and upper ocean thermal structure are also investigated. Climatological studies of upper ocean thermal structure and surface energy exchange in the western and eastern parts of Arabian Sea bring out the similarities/differences and the causative factors for the observed features. Annual variation of zonally averaged heat advection in north Indian Ocean shows that maximum export of about 100 W/m2 occurs around 15ON during southwest monsoon season. This is due to large negative heat storage caused by intense upwelling in several parts of northern Indian Ocean. By and large, northern Indian Ocean is an area of heat export

Analysis of Pleistocene paleodrainage evolution in the Po Basin (Italy) by multivariate statistical techniques

In order to obtain a high-resolution Pleistocene stratigraphy, eleven continuously cored boreholes, 100 to 220m deep were drilled in the northern part of the Po Plain by Regione Lombardia in the last five years. Quantitative provenance analysis (QPA, Weltje and von Eynatten, 2004) of Pleistocene sands was carried out by using multivariate statistical analysis (principal component analysis, PCA, and similarity analysis) on an integrated data set, including high-resolution bulk petrography and heavy-mineral analyses on Pleistocene sands and of 250 major and minor modern rivers draining the southern flank of the Alps from West to East (Garzanti et al, 2004; 2006). Prior to the onset of major Alpine glaciations, metamorphic and quartzofeldspathic detritus from the Western and Central Alps was carried from the axial belt to the Po basin longitudinally parallel to the SouthAlpine belt by a trunk river (Vezzoli and Garzanti, 2008). This scenario rapidly changed during the marine isotope stage 22 (0.87 Ma), with the onset of the first major Pleistocene glaciation in the Alps (Muttoni et al, 2003). PCA and similarity analysis from core samples show that the longitudinal trunk river at this time was shifted southward by the rapid southward and westward progradation of transverse alluvial river systems fed from the Central and Southern Alps. Sediments were transported southward by braided river systems as well as glacial sediments transported by Alpine valley glaciers invaded the alluvial plain. Kew words: Detrital modes; Modern sands; Provenance; Principal Components Analysis; Similarity, Canberra Distance; palaeodrainage

A review of palaeoclimates and palaeoenvironments in the Levant and Eastern Mediterranean from 25,000 to 5000 years BP: setting the environmental background for the evolution of human civilisation

The southern Levant has a long history of human habitation and it has been previously suggested that climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene-Holocene stimulated changes in human behaviour and society. In order to evaluate such linkages, it is necessary to have a detailed understanding of the climate record. We have conducted an extensive and up-to-date review of terrestrial and marine climatic conditions in the Levant and Eastern Mediterranean during the last 25,000 years. We firstly present data from general circulation models (GCMs) simulating the climate for the last glacial maximum (LGM), and evaluate the output of the model by reference to geological climate proxy data. We consider the types of climate data available from different environments and proxies and then present the spatial climatic "picture" for key climatic events. This exercise suggests that the major Northern Hemisphere climatic fluctuations of the last 25,000 years are recorded in the Eastern Mediterranean and Levantine region. However, this review also highlights problems and inadequacies with the existing data. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Life cycle of the QBO-modulated 11-year solar cycle signals in the Northern Hemispheric winter

This paper provides some insights on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulated 11-year solar cycle (11-yr SC) signals in Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter temperature and zonal wind. Daily ERA-40 Reanalysis and ECMWF Operational data for the period of 1958-2006 were used to examine the seasonal evolution of the QBO-solar cycle relationship at various pressure levels up to the stratopause. The results show that the solar signals in the NH winter extratropics are indeed QBO-phase dependent, moving poleward and downward as winter progresses with a faster descent rate under westerly QBO than under easterly QBO. In the stratosphere, the signals are highly significant in late January to early March and have a life span of 30-50 days. Under westerly QBO, the stratospheric solar signals clearly lead and connect to those in the troposphere in late March and early April where they have a life span of 10 days. As the structure changes considerably from the upper stratosphere to the lower troposphere, the exact month when the maximum solar signals occur depends largely on the altitude chosen. For the low-latitude stratosphere, our analysis supports a vertical double-peaked structure of positive signature of the 11-yr SC in temperature, and demonstrates that this structure is further modulated by the QBO. These solar signals have a longer life span (3-4 months) in comparison to those in the extratropics. The solar signals in the lower stratosphere are stronger in early winter but weaker in late winter, while the reverse holds in the upper stratosphere.

Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

Model studies of the interannual variability of the northern-hemisphere stratospheric winter circulation: the role of the quasi-biennial oscillation

A series of experiments are described that examine the sensitivity of the northern-hemisphere winter evolution to the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The prime tool for the experiments is a stratosphere-mesosphere model. The model is integrated over many years with the modelled equatorial winds relaxed towards observed values in order to simulate a realistic QBO. In experiment A the equatorial winds are relaxed towards Singapore radiosonde observations in the height region 16-32 km. In contrast to previous modelling studies, the Holton-Tan relationship (warm/cold winters associated with easterly/westerly QBO winds in the lower stratosphere) is absent. However, in a second experiment (run B) in which the equatorial winds are relaxed towards rocketsonde data over the extended height range 16-58 km, a realistic Holton-Tan relationship is reproduced. A series of further studies are described that explore in more detail the sensitivity to various equatorial height regions and to the bottom-boundary forcing. The experiments suggest that the evolution of the northern-hemisphere winter circulation is sensitive to equatorial winds throughout the whole depth of the stratosphere and not just to the lower-stratospheric wind direction as previously assumed.

The effect of climate change on the variability of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex

With extreme variability of the Arctic polar vortex being a key link for stratosphere–troposphere influences, its evolution into the twenty-first century is important for projections of changing surface climate in response to greenhouse gases. Variability of the stratospheric vortex is examined using a state-of-the-art climate model and a suite of specifically developed vortex diagnostics. The model has a fully coupled ocean and a fully resolved stratosphere. Analysis of the standard stratospheric zonal mean wind diagnostic shows no significant increase over the twenty-first century in the number of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) from its historical value of 0.7 events per decade, although the monthly distribution of SSWs does vary, with events becoming more evenly dispersed throughout the winter. However, further analyses using geometric-based vortex diagnostics show that the vortex mean state becomes weaker, and the vortex centroid is climatologically more equatorward by up to 2.5°, especially during early winter. The results using these diagnostics not only characterize the vortex structure and evolution but also emphasize the need for vortex-centric diagnostics over zonally averaged measures. Finally, vortex variability is subdivided into wave-1 (displaced) and -2 (split) components, and it is implied that vortex displacement events increase in frequency under climate change, whereas little change is observed in splitting events.

On the drivers of inter-annual and decadal rainfall variability in Queensland, Australia

Queensland experiences considerable inter-annual and decadal rainfall variability, which impacts water-resource management, agriculture and infrastructure. To understand the mechanisms by which large-scale atmospheric and coupled air–sea processes drive these variations, empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to 1900–2010 seasonal Queensland rainfall. Fields from observations and the 20th Century Reanalysis are regressed onto the EOT timeseries to associate the EOTs with large-scale drivers. In winter, spring and summer the leading, state-wide EOTs are highly correlated with the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation modulates the summer ENSO teleconnection. In autumn, the leading EOT is associated with locally driven, late-season monsoon variations, while ENSO affects only tropical northern Queensland. Examining EOTs beyond the first, southeastern Queensland and the Cape York peninsula emerge as regions of coherent rainfall variability. In the southeast, rainfall anomalies respond to the strength and moisture content of onshore easterlies, controlled by Tasman Sea blocking. The summer EOT associated with onshore flow and blocking has been negative since 1970, consistent with the observed decline in rainfall along the heavily populated coast. The southeastern Queensland EOTs show considerable multi-decadal variability, which is independent of large-scale drivers. Summer rainfall in Cape York is associated with tropical-cyclone activity.

Klaus - an exceptional winter storm over northern Iberia and southern France

The synoptic evolution and impacts of storm ‘Klaus’ that affected Europe on 23–24 January 2009 are assessed. Klaus was the costliest weather hazard event worldwide during 2009. Peak wind gusts reached 55ms-1 (107kn), accompanied by heavy rain, snow and flooding across Northern Iberia and southern France. Klaus underwent explosive development between the Azores and the Iberian Peninsula at an unusually low latitude. This development was supported by an extended and intense polar jet across the North Atlantic Basin, strong upper-air divergence associated with a second jet streak and an extraordinary export of tropical moisture into the genesis region. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Influence of the Tibetan Plateau uplift on the Asian monsoon-arid environment evolution

As one of the most important geological events in Cenozoic era, the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has had profound influences on the Asian and global climate and environment evolution. During the past four decades, many scholars from China and abroad have studied climatic and environmental effects of the TP uplift by using a variety of geological records and paleoclimate numerical simulations. The existing research results enrich our understanding of the mechanisms of Asian monsoon changes and interior aridification, but so far there are still a lot of issues that need to be thought deeply and investigated further. This paper attempts to review the research on the influence of the TP uplift on the Asian monsoon-arid environment, summarize three types of numerical simulations including bulk-plateau uplift, phased uplift and sub-regional uplift, and especially to analyze regional differences in responses of climate and environment to different forms of tectonic uplifts. From previous modeling results, the land-sea distribution and the Himalayan uplift may have a large effect in the establishment and development of the South Asian monsoon. However, the formation and evolution of the monsoon in northern East Asia, the intensified dryness north of the TP and enhanced Asian dust cycle may be more closely related to the uplift of the main body, especially the northern part of the TP. In this review, we also discuss relative roles of the TP uplift and other impact factors, origins of the South Asian monsoon and East Asian monsoon, feedback effects and nonlinear responses of climatic and environmental changes to the plateau uplift. Finally, we make comparisons between numerical simulations and geological records, discuss their uncertainties, and highlight some problems worthy of further studying.

A continuum model of melt pond evolution on Arctic sea ice

[1] During the Northern Hemisphere summer, absorbed solar radiation melts snow and the upper surface of Arctic sea ice to generate meltwater that accumulates in ponds. The melt ponds reduce the albedo of the sea ice cover during the melting season, with a significant impact on the heat and mass budget of the sea ice and the upper ocean. We have developed a model, designed to be suitable for inclusion into a global circulation model (GCM), which simulates the formation and evolution of the melt pond cover. In order to be compatible with existing GCM sea ice models, our melt pond model builds upon the existing theory of the evolution of the sea ice thickness distribution. Since this theory does not describe the topography of the ice cover, which is crucial to determining the location, extent, and depth of individual ponds, we have needed to introduce some assumptions. We describe our model, present calculations and a sensitivity analysis, and discuss our results.

Ice-stream initiation, duration and thinning on James Ross Island, northern Antarctic Peninsula

Predicting the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change requires an understanding of the ice streams that dominate its dynamics. Here we use cosmogenic isotope exposure-age dating (26Al, 10Be and 36Cl) of erratic boulders on ice-free land on James Ross Island, north-eastern Antarctic Peninsula, to define the evolution of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice in the adjacent Prince Gustav Channel. These data include ice-sheet extent, thickness and dynamical behaviour. Prior to ∼18 ka, the LGM Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet extended to the continental shelf-edge and transported erratic boulders onto high-elevation mesas on James Ross Island. After ∼18 ka there was a period of rapid ice-sheet surface-lowering, coincident with the initiation of the Prince Gustav Ice Stream. This timing coincided with rapid increases in atmospheric temperature and eustatic sea-level rise around the Antarctic Peninsula. Collectively, these data provide evidence for a transition from a thick, cold-based LGM Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to a thinner, partially warm-based ice sheet during deglaciation.

Experimental evolution for generalists and specialists reveals multivariate genetic constraints on thermal reaction norms

Theory predicts the emergence of generalists in variable environments and antagonistic pleiotropy to favour specialists in constant environments, but empirical data seldom support such generalist–specialist trade-offs. We selected for generalists and specialists in the dung fly Sepsis punctum (Diptera: Sepsidae) under conditions that we predicted would reveal antagonistic pleiotropy and multivariate trade-offs underlying thermal reaction norms for juvenile development. We performed replicated laboratory evolution using four treatments: adaptation at a hot (31 °C) or a cold (15 °C) temperature, or under regimes fluctuating between these temperatures, either within or between generations. After 20 generations, we assessed parental effects and genetic responses of thermal reaction norms for three correlated life-history traits: size at maturity, juvenile growth rate and juvenile survival. We find evidence for antagonistic pleiotropy for performance at hot and cold temperatures, and a temperature-mediated trade-off between juvenile survival and size at maturity, suggesting that trade-offs associated with environmental tolerance can arise via intensified evolutionary compromises between genetically correlated traits. However, despite this antagonistic pleiotropy, we found no support for the evolution of increased thermal tolerance breadth at the expense of reduced maximal performance, suggesting low genetic variance in the generalist–specialist dimension.

Impacts of uplift of northern Tibetan Plateau and formation of Asian inland deserts on regional climate and environment

Based on the geological evidence that the northern Tibetan Plateau (NTP) had an uplift of a finite magnitude since the Miocene and the major Asian inland deserts formed in the early Pliocene, a regional climate model (RegCM4.1) with a horizontal resolution of 50 km was used to explore the effects of the NTP uplift and the related aridification of inland Asia on regional climate. We designed three numerical experiments including the control experiment representing the present-day condition, the high-mountain experiment representing the early Pliocene condition with uplifted NTP but absence of the Asian inland deserts, and the low-mountain experiment representing the mid-Miocene condition with reduced topography in the NTP (by as much as 2400 m) and also absence of the deserts. Our simulation results indicated that the NTP uplift caused significant reductions in annual precipitation in a broad region of inland Asia north of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) mainly due to the enhanced rain shadow effect of the mountains and changes in the regional circulations. However, four mountainous regions located in the uplift showed significant increases in precipitation, stretching from the Pamir Plateau in the west to the Qilian Mountains in the east. These mountainous areas also experienced different changes in the rainfall seasonality with the greatest increases occurring during the respective rainy seasons, predominantly resulted from the enhanced orographically forced upwind ascents. The appearance of the major deserts in the inland Asia further reduced precipitation in the region and led to increased dust emission and deposition fluxes, while the spatial patterns of dust deposition were also changed, not only in the regions of uplift-impacted topography, but also in the downwind regions. One major contribution from this study is the comparison of the simulation results with 11 existing geological records representing the moisture conditions from Miocene to Pliocene. The comparisons revealed good matches between the simulation results and the published geological records. Therefore, we conclude that the NTP uplift and the related formation of the major deserts played a controlling role in the evolution of regional climatic conditions in a broad region in inland Asia since the Miocene.

The development of soil organic matter in restored biodiverse Jarrah forests of South-Western Australia as determined by ASE and GCMS

Background, aim and scope Soil organic matter (SOM) is known to increase with time as landscapes recover after a major disturbance; however, little is known about the evolution of the chemistry of SOM in reconstructed ecosystems. In this study, we assessed the development of SOM chemistry in a chronosequence (space for time substitution) of restored Jarrah forest sites in Western Australia. Materials and methods Replicated samples were taken at the surface of the mineral soil as well as deeper in the profile at sites of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 17 years of age. A molecular approach was developed to distinguish and quantify numerous individual compounds in SOM. This used accelerated solvent extraction in conjunction with gas chromatography mass spectrometry. A novel multivariate statistical approach was used to assess changes in accelerated solvent extraction (ASE)-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GCMS) spectra. This enabled us to track SOM developmental trajectories with restoration time. Results Results showed total carbon concentrations approached that of native forests soils by 17 years of restoration. Using the relate protocol in PRIMER, we demonstrated an overall linear relationship with site age at both depths, indicating that changes in SOM chemistry were occurring. Conclusions The surface soils were seen to approach native molecular compositions while the deeper soil retained a more stable chemical signature, suggesting litter from the developing diverse plant community has altered SOM near the surface. Our new approach for assessing SOM development, combining ASE-GCMS with illuminating multivariate statistical analysis, holds great promise to more fully develop ASE for the characterisation of SOM.