Hero's journey in bifurcation diagram

The hero's journey is a narrative structure identified by several authors in comparative studies on folklore and mythology. This storytelling template presents the stages of inner metamorphosis undergone by the protagonist after being called to an adventure. In a simplified version, this journey is divided into three acts separated by two crucial moments. Here we propose a discrete-time dynamical system for representing the protagonist's evolution. The suffering along the journey is taken as the control parameter of this system. The bifurcation diagram exhibits stationary, periodic and chaotic behaviors. In this diagram, there are transition from fixed point to chaos and transition from limit cycle to fixed point. We found that the values of the control parameter corresponding to these two transitions are in quantitative agreement with the two critical moments of the three-act hero's journey identified in 10 movies appearing in the list of the 200 worldwide highest-grossing films. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Non-Markovian stochastic processes and their applications: from anomalous diffusion to time series analysis

This work provides a forward step in the study and comprehension of the relationships between stochastic processes and a certain class of integral-partial differential equation, which can be used in order to model anomalous diffusion and transport in statistical physics. In the first part, we brought the reader through the fundamental notions of probability and stochastic processes, stochastic integration and stochastic differential equations as well. In particular, within the study of H-sssi processes, we focused on fractional Brownian motion (fBm) and its discrete-time increment process, the fractional Gaussian noise (fGn), which provide examples of non-Markovian Gaussian processes. The fGn, together with stationary FARIMA processes, is widely used in the modeling and estimation of long-memory, or long-range dependence (LRD). Time series manifesting long-range dependence, are often observed in nature especially in physics, meteorology, climatology, but also in hydrology, geophysics, economy and many others. We deepely studied LRD, giving many real data examples, providing statistical analysis and introducing parametric methods of estimation. Then, we introduced the theory of fractional integrals and derivatives, which indeed turns out to be very appropriate for studying and modeling systems with long-memory properties. After having introduced the basics concepts, we provided many examples and applications. For instance, we investigated the relaxation equation with distributed order time-fractional derivatives, which describes models characterized by a strong memory component and can be used to model relaxation in complex systems, which deviates from the classical exponential Debye pattern. Then, we focused in the study of generalizations of the standard diffusion equation, by passing through the preliminary study of the fractional forward drift equation. Such generalizations have been obtained by using fractional integrals and derivatives of distributed orders. In order to find a connection between the anomalous diffusion described by these equations and the long-range dependence, we introduced and studied the generalized grey Brownian motion (ggBm), which is actually a parametric class of H-sssi processes, which have indeed marginal probability density function evolving in time according to a partial integro-differential equation of fractional type. The ggBm is of course Non-Markovian. All around the work, we have remarked many times that, starting from a master equation of a probability density function f(x,t), it is always possible to define an equivalence class of stochastic processes with the same marginal density function f(x,t). All these processes provide suitable stochastic models for the starting equation. Studying the ggBm, we just focused on a subclass made up of processes with stationary increments. The ggBm has been defined canonically in the so called grey noise space. However, we have been able to provide a characterization notwithstanding the underline probability space. We also pointed out that that the generalized grey Brownian motion is a direct generalization of a Gaussian process and in particular it generalizes Brownain motion and fractional Brownain motion as well. Finally, we introduced and analyzed a more general class of diffusion type equations related to certain non-Markovian stochastic processes. We started from the forward drift equation, which have been made non-local in time by the introduction of a suitable chosen memory kernel K(t). The resulting non-Markovian equation has been interpreted in a natural way as the evolution equation of the marginal density function of a random time process l(t). We then consider the subordinated process Y(t)=X(l(t)) where X(t) is a Markovian diffusion. The corresponding time-evolution of the marginal density function of Y(t) is governed by a non-Markovian Fokker-Planck equation which involves the same memory kernel K(t). We developed several applications and derived the exact solutions. Moreover, we considered different stochastic models for the given equations, providing path simulations.

Inverse Static Analysis of Massive Parallel Arrays of Three-State Actuators via Artificial Intelligence

Massive parallel robots (MPRs) driven by discrete actuators are force regulated robots that undergo continuous motions despite being commanded through a finite number of states only. Designing a real-time control of such systems requires fast and efficient methods for solving their inverse static analysis (ISA), which is a challenging problem and the subject of this thesis. In particular, five Artificial intelligence methods are proposed to investigate the on-line computation and the generalization error of ISA problem of a class of MPRs featuring three-state force actuators and one degree of revolute motion.

The long arm of time pressure at work: Cognitive failure and commuting near-accidents

This study tests whether cognitive failures mediate effects of work-related time pressure and time control on commuting accidents and near-accidents. Participants were 83 employees (56% female) who each commuted between their regular place of residence and place of work using vehicles. The Workplace Cognitive Failure Scale (WCFS) asked for the frequency of failure in memory function, failure in attention regulation, and failure in action execution. Time pressure and time control at work were assessed by the Instrument for Stress Oriented Task Analysis (ISTA). Commuting accidents in the last 12 months were reported by 10% of participants, and half of the sample reported commuting near-accidents in the last 4 weeks. Cognitive failure significantly mediated the influence of time pressure at work on near-accidents even when age, gender, neuroticism, conscientiousness, commuting duration, commuting distance, and time pressure during commuting were controlled for. Time control was negatively related to cognitive failure and neuroticism, but no association with commuting accidents or near-accidents was found. Time pressure at work is likely to increase cognitive load. Time pressure might, therefore, increase cognitive failures during work and also during commuting. Hence, time pressure at work can decrease commuting safety. The result suggests a reduction of time pressure at work should improve commuting safety.

BAYESIAN PHASE I DOSE FINDING IN CANCER TRIALS

This dissertation explores phase I dose-finding designs in cancer trials from three perspectives: the alternative Bayesian dose-escalation rules, a design based on a time-to-dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) model, and a design based on a discrete-time multi-state (DTMS) model. We list alternative Bayesian dose-escalation rules and perform a simulation study for the intra-rule and inter-rule comparisons based on two statistical models to identify the most appropriate rule under certain scenarios. We provide evidence that all the Bayesian rules outperform the traditional ``3+3'' design in the allocation of patients and selection of the maximum tolerated dose. The design based on a time-to-DLT model uses patients' DLT information over multiple treatment cycles in estimating the probability of DLT at the end of treatment cycle 1. Dose-escalation decisions are made whenever a cycle-1 DLT occurs, or two months after the previous check point. Compared to the design based on a logistic regression model, the new design shows more safety benefits for trials in which more late-onset toxicities are expected. As a trade-off, the new design requires more patients on average. The design based on a discrete-time multi-state (DTMS) model has three important attributes: (1) Toxicities are categorized over a distribution of severity levels, (2) Early toxicity may inform dose escalation, and (3) No suspension is required between accrual cohorts. The proposed model accounts for the difference in the importance of the toxicity severity levels and for transitions between toxicity levels. We compare the operating characteristics of the proposed design with those from a similar design based on a fully-evaluated model that directly models the maximum observed toxicity level within the patients' entire assessment window. We describe settings in which, under comparable power, the proposed design shortens the trial. The proposed design offers more benefit compared to the alternative design as patient accrual becomes slower.

Orbital control on carbonate-lignite cycles on sediment core KAP-107 in the Ptolemais Basin, northern Greece

Time control is essential for the reconstruction of geological processes. We use a combination of relative and absolute methods to establish the chronology and related paleoclimatic processes for Late Neogene lacustrine sediment from the Ptolemais Basin, northern Greece. We determined changes in magnetic polarity and correlated them to the global magnetic polarity time scale, which again is calibrated by radiometric methods, to provide a low-resolution age model for the Upper Miocene to Lower Pliocene (7 - 3 Ma). Sedimentary successions show rhythmic alterations of lignites, clays, and marls. Using photospetrometry we measured this variability at 1-cm resolution, and correlated the pattern to known changes in earth's orbital parameters, namely to eccentricity and precession. For 230-m long borehole KAP-107 from the Amynteon Sub-Basin we obtained a high-resolution age model that spans 2 myr from 5.1 to 3.1 Ma, with age control points at insolation maxima (20-kyr resolution). We recommend using photospectrometry as reliable tool to establish orbital-based chronologies and to reconstruct paleoclimate variability at high resolution.

Novel Inductor‐less Conversion Strategy Based on Multiphase Transformer‐Coupled Converters: Analysis, Design and Applications

There are many the requirements that modern power converters should fulfill. Most of the applications where these converters are used, demand smaller converters with high efficiency, improved power density and a fast dynamic response. For instance, loads like microprocessors demand aggressive current steps with very high slew rates (100A/mus and higher); besides, during these load steps, the supply voltage of the microprocessor should be kept within tight limits in order to ensure its correct performance. The accomplishment of these requirements is not an easy task; complex solutions like advanced topologies - such as multiphase converters- as well as advanced control strategies are often needed. Besides, it is also necessary to operate the converter at high switching frequencies and to use capacitors with high capacitance and low ESR. Improving the dynamic response of power converters does not rely only on the control strategy but also the power topology should be suited to enable a fast dynamic response. Moreover, in later years, a fast dynamic response does not only mean accomplishing fast load steps but output voltage steps are gaining importance as well. At least, two applications that require fast voltage changes can be named: Low power microprocessors. In these devices, the voltage supply is changed according to the workload and the operating frequency of the microprocessor is changed at the same time. An important reduction in voltage dependent losses can be achieved with such changes. This technique is known as Dynamic Voltage Scaling (DVS). Another application where important energy savings can be achieved by means of changing the supply voltage are Radio Frequency Power Amplifiers. For example, RF architectures based on ‘Envelope Tracking’ and ‘Envelope Elimination and Restoration’ techniques can take advantage of voltage supply modulation and accomplish important energy savings in the power amplifier. However, in order to achieve these efficiency improvements, a power converter with high efficiency and high enough bandwidth (hundreds of kHz or even tens of MHz) is necessary in order to ensure an adequate supply voltage. The main objective of this Thesis is to improve the dynamic response of DC-DC converters from the point of view of the power topology. And the term dynamic response refers both to the load steps and the voltage steps; it is also interesting to modulate the output voltage of the converter with a specific bandwidth. In order to accomplish this, the question of what is it that limits the dynamic response of power converters should be answered. Analyzing this question leads to the conclusion that the dynamic response is limited by the power topology and specifically, by the filter inductance of the converter which is found in series between the input and the output of the converter. The series inductance is the one that determines the gain of the converter and provides the regulation capability. Although the energy stored in the filter inductance enables the regulation and the capability of filtering the output voltage, it imposes a limitation which is the concern of this Thesis. The series inductance stores energy and prevents the current from changing in a fast way, limiting the slew rate of the current through this inductor. Different solutions are proposed in the literature in order to reduce the limit imposed by the filter inductor. Many publications proposing new topologies and improvements to known topologies can be found in the literature. Also, complex control strategies are proposed with the objective of improving the dynamic response in power converters. In the proposed topologies, the energy stored in the series inductor is reduced; examples of these topologies are Multiphase converters, Buck converter operating at very high frequency or adding a low impedance path in parallel with the series inductance. Control techniques proposed in the literature, focus on adjusting the output voltage as fast as allowed by the power stage; examples of these control techniques are: hysteresis control, V 2 control, and minimum time control. In some of the proposed topologies, a reduction in the value of the series inductance is achieved and with this, the energy stored in this magnetic element is reduced; less stored energy means a faster dynamic response. However, in some cases (as in the high frequency Buck converter), the dynamic response is improved at the cost of worsening the efficiency. In this Thesis, a drastic solution is proposed: to completely eliminate the series inductance of the converter. This is a more radical solution when compared to those proposed in the literature. If the series inductance is eliminated, the regulation capability of the converter is limited which can make it difficult to use the topology in one-converter solutions; however, this topology is suitable for power architectures where the energy conversion is done by more than one converter. When the series inductor is eliminated from the converter, the current slew rate is no longer limited and it can be said that the dynamic response of the converter is independent from the switching frequency. This is the main advantage of eliminating the series inductor. The main objective, is to propose an energy conversion strategy that is done without series inductance. Without series inductance, no energy is stored between the input and the output of the converter and the dynamic response would be instantaneous if all the devices were ideal. If the energy transfer from the input to the output of the converter is done instantaneously when a load step occurs, conceptually it would not be necessary to store energy at the output of the converter (no output capacitor COUT would be needed) and if the input source is ideal, the input capacitor CIN would not be necessary. This last feature (no CIN with ideal VIN) is common to all power converters. However, when the concept is actually implemented, parasitic inductances such as leakage inductance of the transformer and the parasitic inductance of the PCB, cannot be avoided because they are inherent to the implementation of the converter. These parasitic elements do not affect significantly to the proposed concept. In this Thesis, it is proposed to operate the converter without series inductance in order to improve the dynamic response of the converter; however, on the other side, the continuous regulation capability of the converter is lost. It is said continuous because, as it will be explained throughout the Thesis, it is indeed possible to achieve discrete regulation; a converter without filter inductance and without energy stored in the magnetic element, is capable to achieve a limited number of output voltages. The changes between these output voltage levels are achieved in a fast way. The proposed energy conversion strategy is implemented by means of a multiphase converter where the coupling of the phases is done by discrete two-winding transformers instead of coupledinductors since transformers are, ideally, no energy storing elements. This idea is the main contribution of this Thesis. The feasibility of this energy conversion strategy is first analyzed and then verified by simulation and by the implementation of experimental prototypes. Once the strategy is proved valid, different options to implement the magnetic structure are analyzed. Three different discrete transformer arrangements are studied and implemented. A converter based on this energy conversion strategy would be designed with a different approach than the one used to design classic converters since an additional design degree of freedom is available. The switching frequency can be chosen according to the design specifications without penalizing the dynamic response or the efficiency. Low operating frequencies can be chosen in order to favor the efficiency; on the other hand, high operating frequencies (MHz) can be chosen in order to favor the size of the converter. For this reason, a particular design procedure is proposed for the ‘inductorless’ conversion strategy. Finally, applications where the features of the proposed conversion strategy (high efficiency with fast dynamic response) are advantageus, are proposed. For example, in two-stage power architectures where a high efficiency converter is needed as the first stage and there is a second stage that provides the fine regulation. Another example are RF power amplifiers where the voltage is modulated following an envelope reference in order to save power; in this application, a high efficiency converter, capable of achieving fast voltage steps is required. The main contributions of this Thesis are the following: The proposal of a conversion strategy that is done, ideally, without storing energy in the magnetic element. The validation and the implementation of the proposed energy conversion strategy. The study of different magnetic structures based on discrete transformers for the implementation of the proposed energy conversion strategy. To elaborate and validate a design procedure. To identify and validate applications for the proposed energy conversion strategy. It is important to remark that this work is done in collaboration with Intel. The particular features of the proposed conversion strategy enable the possibility of solving the problems related to microprocessor powering in a different way. For example, the high efficiency achieved with the proposed conversion strategy enables it as a good candidate to be used for power conditioning, as a first stage in a two-stage power architecture for powering microprocessors.

A general stability criterion for switched linear systems having stable and unstable subsystems

We report conditions on a switching signal that guarantee that solutions of a switched linear systems converge asymptotically to zero. These conditions are apply to continuous, discrete-time and hybrid switched linear systems, both those having stable subsystems and mixtures of stable and unstable subsystems.

Variable threshold algorithm for division of labor analyzed as a dynamical system

Division of labor is a widely studied aspect of colony behavior of social insects. Division of labor models indicate how individuals distribute themselves in order to perform different tasks simultaneously. However, models that study division of labor from a dynamical system point of view cannot be found in the literature. In this paper, we define a division of labor model as a discrete-time dynamical system, in order to study the equilibrium points and their properties related to convergence and stability. By making use of this analytical model, an adaptive algorithm based on division of labor can be designed to satisfy dynamic criteria. In this way, we have designed and tested an algorithm that varies the response thresholds in order to modify the dynamic behavior of the system. This behavior modification allows the system to adapt to specific environmental and collective situations, making the algorithm a good candidate for distributed control applications. The variable threshold algorithm is based on specialization mechanisms. It is able to achieve an asymptotically stable behavior of the system in different environments and independently of the number of individuals. The algorithm has been successfully tested under several initial conditions and number of individuals.

“Tell Me Who You Hang with and I’ll Tell You What You Are:” Gang Identity, Organization, and Desistance

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Warranty and discrete preventive maintenance

Preventive maintenance actions over the warranty period have an impact on the warranty servicing cost to the manufacturer and the cost to the buyer of fixing failures over the life of the product after the warranty expires. However, preventive maintenance costs money and is worthwhile only when these costs exceed the reduction in other costs. The paper deals with a model to determine when preventive maintenance actions (which rejuvenate the unit) carried out at discrete time instants over the warranty period are worthwhile. The cost of preventive maintenance is borne by the buyer. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structural change in macroeconomic time series: A complex systems perspective

We demonstrate that the process of generating smooth transitions Call be viewed as a natural result of the filtering operations implied in the generation of discrete-time series observations from the sampling of data from an underlying continuous time process that has undergone a process of structural change. In order to focus discussion, we utilize the problem of estimating the location of abrupt shifts in some simple time series models. This approach will permit its to address salient issues relating to distortions induced by the inherent aggregation associated with discrete-time sampling of continuous time processes experiencing structural change, We also address the issue of how time irreversible structures may be generated within the smooth transition processes. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Termination of real-time programs: Definitely, definitely not, or maybe

Real-time control programs are often used in contexts where (conceptually) they run forever. Repetitions within such programs (or their specifications) may either (i) be guaranteed to terminate, (ii) be guaranteed to never terminate (loop forever), or (iii) may possibly terminate. In dealing with real-time programs and their specifications, we need to be able to represent these possibilities, and define suitable refinement orderings. A refinement ordering based on Dijkstra's weakest precondition only copes with the first alternative. Weakest liberal preconditions allow one to constrain behaviour provided the program terminates, which copes with the third alternative to some extent. However, neither of these handles the case when a program does not terminate. To handle this case a refinement ordering based on relational semantics can be used. In this paper we explore these issues and the definition of loops for real-time programs as well as corresponding refinement laws.

Pragmatic approach to the development of robust real-time protocols

This research is concerned with the development of distributed real-time systems, in which software is used for the control of concurrent physical processes. These distributed control systems are required to periodically coordinate the operation of several autonomous physical processes, with the property of an atomic action. The implementation of this coordination must be fault-tolerant if the integrity of the system is to be maintained in the presence of processor or communication failures. Commit protocols have been widely used to provide this type of atomicity and ensure consistency in distributed computer systems. The objective of this research is the development of a class of robust commit protocols, applicable to the coordination of distributed real-time control systems. Extended forms of the standard two phase commit protocol, that provides fault-tolerant and real-time behaviour, were developed. Petri nets are used for the design of the distributed controllers, and to embed the commit protocol models within these controller designs. This composition of controller and protocol model allows the analysis of the complete system in a unified manner. A common problem for Petri net based techniques is that of state space explosion, a modular approach to both the design and analysis would help cope with this problem. Although extensions to Petri nets that allow module construction exist, generally the modularisation is restricted to the specification, and analysis must be performed on the (flat) detailed net. The Petri net designs for the type of distributed systems considered in this research are both large and complex. The top down, bottom up and hybrid synthesis techniques that are used to model large systems in Petri nets are considered. A hybrid approach to Petri net design for a restricted class of communicating processes is developed. Designs produced using this hybrid approach are modular and allow re-use of verified modules. In order to use this form of modular analysis, it is necessary to project an equivalent but reduced behaviour on the modules used. These projections conceal events local to modules that are not essential for the purpose of analysis. To generate the external behaviour, each firing sequence of the subnet is replaced by an atomic transition internal to the module, and the firing of these transitions transforms the input and output markings of the module. Thus local events are concealed through the projection of the external behaviour of modules. This hybrid design approach preserves properties of interest, such as boundedness and liveness, while the systematic concealment of local events allows the management of state space. The approach presented in this research is particularly suited to distributed systems, as the underlying communication model is used as the basis for the interconnection of modules in the design procedure. This hybrid approach is applied to Petri net based design and analysis of distributed controllers for two industrial applications that incorporate the robust, real-time commit protocols developed. Temporal Petri nets, which combine Petri nets and temporal logic, are used to capture and verify causal and temporal aspects of the designs in a unified manner.

The design of robust protocols for distributed real-time systems

Modern distributed control systems comprise of a set of processors which are interconnected using a suitable communication network. For use in real-time control environments, such systems must be deterministic and generate specified responses within critical timing constraints. Also, they should be sufficiently robust to survive predictable events such as communication or processor faults. This thesis considers the problem of coordinating and synchronizing a distributed real-time control system under normal and abnormal conditions. Distributed control systems need to periodically coordinate the actions of several autonomous sites. Often the type of coordination required is the all or nothing property of an atomic action. Atomic commit protocols have been used to achieve this atomicity in distributed database systems which are not subject to deadlines. This thesis addresses the problem of applying time constraints to atomic commit protocols so that decisions can be made within a deadline. A modified protocol is proposed which is suitable for real-time applications. The thesis also addresses the problem of ensuring that atomicity is provided even if processor or communication failures occur. Previous work has considered the design of atomic commit protocols for use in non time critical distributed database systems. However, in a distributed real-time control system a fault must not allow stringent timing constraints to be violated. This thesis proposes commit protocols using synchronous communications which can be made resilient to a single processor or communication failure and still satisfy deadlines. Previous formal models used to design commit protocols have had adequate state coverability but have omitted timing properties. They also assumed that sites communicated asynchronously and omitted the communications from the model. Timed Petri nets are used in this thesis to specify and design the proposed protocols which are analysed for consistency and timeliness. Also the communication system is mcxielled within the Petri net specifications so that communication failures can be included in the analysis. Analysis of the Timed Petri net and the associated reachability tree is used to show the proposed protocols always terminate consistently and satisfy timing constraints. Finally the applications of this work are described. Two different types of applications are considered, real-time databases and real-time control systems. It is shown that it may be advantageous to use synchronous communications in distributed database systems, especially if predictable response times are required. Emphasis is given to the application of the developed commit protocols to real-time control systems. Using the same analysis techniques as those used for the design of the protocols it can be shown that the overall system performs as expected both functionally and temporally.