Soziale Unterschiede in der vor- und nachgeburtlichen Sterblichkeit: Schweiz 1979-1985. [Social differences in the prenatal and postnatal mortality: Switzerland 1979-1985].

The influence of social factors on birthweight and fetal and infant mortality was investigated in the Swiss birth cohort from 1979-85 (N = 519,933). The proportion of newborns with low-birthweight (less than 2500 g) was higher in lower social classes. Stillbirth-rate, neonatal and postneonatal mortality were higher in lower social classes, too. When controlling for birthweight, the increase in mortality in the lower social classes became somewhat less striking. Marked social differences in perinatal mortality were found in the newborns with normal weight, whereas almost no difference could be detected in the low-birthweight-group.

Spatial variation in the temporal change of male and female melanic ornamentation in the barn owl.

Because the magnitude of selection can vary between sexes and in space and time, sexually antagonistic selection is difficult to demonstrate. In a Swiss population of barn owls (Tyto alba), a heritable eumelanic colour trait (size of black spots on ventral feathers) was positively selected with respect to yearling survival only in females. It remains unclear whether the absence of negative selection in males is typical in this species. To tackle this issue indirectly, we measured the size of black spots in 1733 skin specimens collected by museums from 1816 to 2001 in seven European countries and in the Middle-East. The temporal change in spot size was sex- and country-specific. In males, spots became smaller particularly in three countries (Middle-East, Italy and Switzerland). In females, the size of spots increased significantly in two countries (UK and Spain) and decreased in two others (Germany and Switzerland). Because migration and phenotypic plasticity cannot explain these results, selection is the most likely cause. The weaker temporal change in spot size in females than males may be because of the combined effect of strong genetic correlation between the sexes and stronger negative selection in males than positive selection in females. We thus suggest that in the barn owl, spot size (or genetically correlated traits) is sexually antagonistically selected and that its pattern of selection may account for the maintenance of its variation and sexual dimorphism.

Etat de santé de la population valaisanne 2010

Sur mandat du Service de la santé publique, l'Observatoire valaisan de la santé (OVS) publie le 4e Rapport sur l'état de santé de la population valaisanne. Selon ce rapport, la population du canton bénéficie d'un très bon état de santé général. L'espérance de vie y est une des meilleures au monde. Les maladies cardiovasculaires et les cancers continuent d'être responsables de près de 2/3 des décès. Pour diminuer l'impact de ces maladies, il est nécessaire de poursuivre sur la voie d'une politique de promotion de la santé et de prévention active et ciblée. Le Conseil d'Etat a adopté un programme-cadre allant dans ce sens. Réalisé par l'OVS en collaboration avec l'Institut universitaire de médecine sociale et préventive de Lausanne (IUMSP), le rapport sur l'état de santé livre une photographie sanitaire de la population valaisanne. Il sert de document de référence au gouvernement pour définir les axes de la politique de promotion de la santé et de prévention pour les années 2011-2014.

Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under 21st-century climate change

Quantitative estimates of the range loss of mountain plants under climate change have so far mostly relied on static geographical projections of species' habitat shifts(1-3). Here, we use a hybrid model(4) that combines such projections with simulations of demography and seed dispersal to forecast the climate-driven spatio-temporal dynamics of 150 high-mountain plant species across the European Alps. This model predicts average range size reductions of 44-50% by the end of the twenty-first century, which is similar to projections from the most 'optimistic' static model (49%). However, the hybrid model also indicates that population dynamics will lag behind climatic trends and that an average of 40% of the range still occupied at the end of the twenty-first century will have become climatically unsuitable for the respective species, creating an extinction debt(5,6). Alarmingly, species endemic to the Alps seem to face the highest range losses. These results caution against optimistic conclusions from moderate range size reductions observed during the twenty-first century as they are likely to belie more severe longer-term effects of climate warming on mountain plants.

Shift in cytotype frequency and niche space in the invasive plant Centaurea maculosa.

Polyploidy is often assumed to increase the spread and thus the success of alien plant species, but few empirical studies exist. We tested this hypothesis with Centaurea maculosa Lam., a species native to Europe and introduced into North America approximately 120 years ago where it became highly invasive. We analyzed the ploidy level of more than 2000 plants from 93 native and 48 invasive C. maculosa populations and found a pronounced shift in the relative frequency of diploid and tetraploid cytotypes. In Europe diploid populations occur in higher frequencies than tetraploids and only four populations had both cytotypes, while in North America diploid plants were found in only one mixed population and thus tetraploids clearly dominated. Our results showed a pronounced shift in the climatic niche between tetraploid populations in the native and introduced range toward drier climate in North America and a similar albeit smaller shift between diploids and tetraploids in the native range. The field data indicate that diploids have a predominately monocarpic life cycle, while tetraploids are often polycarpic. Additionally, the polycarpic life-form seems to be more prevalent among tetraploids in the introduced range than among tetraploids in the native range. Our study suggests that both ploidy types of C. maculosa were introduced into North America, but tetraploids became the dominant cytotype with invasion. We suggest that the invasive success of C. maculosa is partly due to preadaptation of the tetraploid cytotype in Europe to drier climate and possibly further adaptation to these conditions in the introduced range. The potential for earlier and longer seed production associated with the polycarpic life cycle constitutes an additional factor that may have led to the dominance of tetraploids over diploids in the introduced range.

The genetic structure of metapopulations and conservation biology.

A range of models describing metapopulations is surveyed and their implications for conservation biology are described. An overview of the use of both population genetic elements and demographic theory in metapopulation models is given. It would appear that most of the current models suffer from either the use of over-simplified demography or the avoidance of selectively important genetic factors. The scale for which predictions are made by the various models is often obscure. A conceptual framework for describing metapopulations by utilising the concept of fitness of local populations is provided and some examples are given. The expectation that any general theory, such as that of metapopulations, can make useful predictions for particular problems of conservation is examined and compared with the prevailing 'state of the art' recommendations.

Inferring landscape effects on dispersal from genetic distances: how far can we go?

Functional connectivity affects demography and gene dynamics in fragmented populations. Besides species-specific dispersal ability, the connectivity between local populations is affected by the landscape elements encountered during dispersal. Documenting these effects is thus a central issue for the conservation and management of fragmented populations. In this study, we compare the power and accuracy of three methods (partial correlations, regressions and Approximate Bayesian Computations) that use genetic distances to infer the effect of landscape upon dispersal. We use stochastic individual-based simulations of fragmented populations surrounded by landscape elements that differ in their permeability to dispersal. The power and accuracy of all three methods are good when there is a strong contrast between the permeability of different landscape elements. The power and accuracy can be further improved by restricting analyses to adjacent pairs of populations. Landscape elements that strongly impede dispersal are the easiest to identify. However, power and accuracy decrease drastically when landscape complexity increases and the contrast between the permeability of landscape elements decreases. We provide guidelines for future studies and underline the needs to evaluate or develop approaches that are more powerful.

La Ley de Estabilidad Presupuestaria en el largo plazo: efecto del ciclo demográfico

La actual situación económica y las perspectivas presupuestarias a largo plazo han suscitado una discusión acerca de la conveniencia de la Ley de Estabilidad Presupuestaria. Este trabajo, empleando contabilidad generacional, evalúa la sostenibilidad de la política fiscal española ampliando el horizonte temporal más allá del ciclo de los negocios, considerando los efectos del ciclo demográfico. Los resultados muestran que, aunque el proceso de consolidación fiscal ha mejorado ostensiblemente la situación financiera de las AA.PP, se sigue trasladando al futuro una deuda implí­cita sustancial

The effect of innovation and sex-specific migration on neutral cultural differentiation

Studies of behaviour are increasingly focusing on acquisition of traits through cultural inheritance. Comparison of patterns of spatial population structure (FST) between neutral genetic loci and behavioural or cultural traits can been used to test hypotheses about demography, life history, and the mechanisms of inheritance/transmission of these traits in humans, chimpanzees and other animals. Here, we develop analytical expectations to show how FST in cultural traits can differ strongly from that measured at neutral genetic markers if migration is largely restricted to one sex but social learning is predominantly modelled on the other (e.g. males migrate, females serve as models for cultural traits), if one individual is the learning model for many, or if rates of innovation (individual learning) are high or rates of social learning are low. We discuss how comparisons of FST between genetic loci and behavioural traits can be applied to evaluate the importance of innovation in shaping patterns of cultural differentiation, as even low rates of innovation can considerably reduce FST, relative to observed structure at neutral genetic loci. Our results also suggest that differentiation in neutral cultural traits should occur over much smaller scales in species with male migration and female enculturation (or the reverse).

El reemplazo por las migraciones: natalidad y fecundidad de los extranjeros en España

Resulta muy difícil estimar el aporte al crecimiento natural de las personas venidas de fueras y nuevos residentes, de acuerdo con la propuesta de Naciones Unidas. Históricamente, No ha habido acuerdo acerca de la fecundidad de los migrantes. Andorka consideró que la migración producía un efecto depresor en la fecundidad. Estudios sobre la fecundidad de los migrantes internos en la sociedad catalana han mostrado el contraste entre un creciente indicador sintético de fecundidad (ISF) y un efecto reducido en la fecundidad longitudinal. Un intento de explicación basado en el tiempo, nacimientos pospuestos y adaptación, se presenta. Se trata de una combinación de la propuesta de Andorka del efecto depresor de la fecundidad, con un segundo tiempo de recuperación en destino. Esta Hipótesis en dos Tiempos (H2T) tiene carácter tentativo. Considera sólo un efecto de calendario. Se utilizan datos oficiales de la Encuesta de Fecundidad de 1999, de un Censo anterior y de natalidad. La H2T se considera una explicación posible de las altas tasas de natalidad de Europa y América.Estimaciones sobre la evolución de los nacimientos futuros de mujeres extranjeras, en al menos dos escenarios, son contemplados al final del artículo.

Embarazos de adolescentes extranjeras en España: ser madre o abortar

Las adolescentes extranjeras son madres, más frecuentemente que las españolas. Eso implica una futura desigualdad en la continuación de los estudios, en el acceso a una mejor calificación y por ende, empleo y futuros ingresos. Las razones que se apuntan son normalmente, culturales: el sexo fuera del matrimonio está mejor aceptado en ciertas culturas extra-europeas -aunque no en otras- y por ende, sus consecuencias, también.El objetivo de este trabajo es poner en evidencia el riesgo de embarazo y de ser madres a tan temprana edad, del colectivo de adolescentes extranjeras -sin distinción de origen- en el contexto de una sociedad europea, la española.Se trata de construir y analizar indicadores de fecundidad y de IVE (Interrupción voluntaria del embarazo), compararlos con las adolescentes locales o el conjunto de adolescentes que viven en España, con el fin de delimitar un problema de salud cuyas opciones de salida implican un marco de valores. Lo reciente de las migraciones extranjeras y de las reunificaciones familiares hace pensar que las adolescenteshan sido socializadas en la sociedad de origen y viven ahora, en otro contexto y en otras circunstancias. Por lo pronto,la diferencia de niveles y las tendencias, se apartan de lo observado para el conjunto de España.

Movimientos sociales e identificación demográfica de sujetos étnicos: una mirada desde Argentina

Contar a las personas que forman grupos o subpoblaciones no es un proceso neutro. Se ha reconocido que está condicionado por factores sociales. El relativo reciente interés de las autoridades de diversos países por conocer con más exactitud sus poblaciones nativas, con el fin de definir y llevar a cabo políticas concretas, ha dado como resultado un tratamiento específico en el recuento y cuantificación de estas poblaciones y la incorporación de preguntas censales, así como la realización de encuestas especiales para poder conocer estos grupos. Desde hace años y como consecuencia de una política de corrección, se ha optado por la autoidentificación como método para incorporar a los individuos en los diversos grupos de adscripción; o sea, la declaración del individuo sobre su pertenencia o no al grupo. Esto ha provocado algunos problemas, pero básicamente, se ha considerado la mejor opción.La hipótesis de este trabajo pone en relación al menos dos procesos que interactúan en una relación positiva de incremento. Por una parte, se reconoce un incremento de sujetos que no puede obedecer a los componentes del crecimiento de la población (e.j. migración). Por la otra, más personas se reconocen como indígenas. En un proceso de retro-alimentación, el reconocimiento de sus derechos y la realización de planes específicos, se acompaña de un incremento en la identificación de los individuos con el grupo.En este trabajo, se toma como ejemplo la evolución de las mediciones de los pueblos indígenas en la República Argentina. Cuando se explotaron los resultados del Censo del 2001, que ha vuelto a incorporar la pregunta, se pudo construir una muestra y realizar la Encuesta Complementaria de pueblos indígenas (ECPI) cuyos resultados han sido publicados. Los objetivos de este trabajo serían, en primer lugar, constatar el crecimiento de los efectivos, más allá de los factores demográficos usuales. En segundo lugar, analizar los resultados en la ECPI (2004-05) sobre cuestiones como pertenencia, descendencia y autoidentificación.

Case complexity and clinical outcome in diabetes mellitus. A prospective study using the INTERMED.

The aim of this study was to assess a population of patients with diabetes mellitus by means of the INTERMED, a classification system for case complexity integrating biological, psychosocial and health care related aspects of disease. The main hypothesis was that the INTERMED would identify distinct clusters of patients with different degrees of case complexity and different clinical outcomes. Patients (n=61) referred to a tertiary reference care centre were evaluated with the INTERMED and followed 9 months for HbA1c values and 6 months for health care utilisation. Cluster analysis revealed two clusters: cluster 1 (62%) consisting of complex patients with high INTERMED scores and cluster 2 (38%) consisting of less complex patients with lower INTERMED. Cluster 1 patients showed significantly higher HbA1c values and a tendency for increased health care utilisation. Total INTERMED scores were significantly related to HbA1c and explained 21% of its variance. In conclusion, different clusters of patients with different degrees of case complexity were identified by the INTERMED, allowing the detection of highly complex patients at risk for poor diabetes control. The INTERMED therefore provides an objective basis for clinical and scientific progress in diabetes mellitus. Ongoing intervention studies will have to confirm these preliminary data and to evaluate if management strategies based on the INTERMED profiles will improve outcomes.

Informe del Consell Social de la Llengua Catalana sobre polítiques de foment del català entre la joventut

S'hi fa una diagnosi aprofundida de la situació sociolingüí­stica catalana actual centrada en els usos lingüí­stics dels joves i el seu ecosistema de determinació. Alhora s'hi proposen mesures concretes de política lingüística en diversos camps, importants per a fer possible l'extensió de l'ús del català  en aquest segment generacional.

Evolutionary history of the greater white-toothed shrew (Crocidura russula) inferred from analysis of mtDNA, Y, and X chromosome markers.

We investigate the evolutionary history of the greater white-toothed shrew across its distribution in northern Africa and mainland Europe using sex-specific (mtDNA and Y chromosome) and biparental (X chromosome) markers. All three loci confirm a large divergence between eastern (Tunisia and Sardinia) and western (Morocco and mainland Europe) lineages, and application of a molecular clock to mtDNA divergence estimates indicates a more ancient separation (2.25 M yr ago) than described by some previous studies, supporting claims for taxonomic revision. Moroccan ancestry for the mainland European population is inconclusive from phylogenetic trees, but is supported by greater nucleotide diversity and a more ancient population expansion in Morocco than in Europe. Signatures of rapid population expansion in mtDNA, combined with low X and Y chromosome diversity, suggest a single colonization of mainland Europe by a small number of Moroccan shrews >38 K yr ago. This study illustrates that multilocus genetic analyses can facilitate the interpretation of species' evolutionary history but that phylogeographic inference using X and Y chromosomes is restricted by low levels of observed polymorphism.