Fuzzy rule-based system for evaluation of uncertainty transaction in cassava chain

A fuzzy ruled-based system was developed in this study and resulted in an index indicating the level of uncertainty related to commercial transactions between cassava growers and their dealers. The fuzzy system was developed based on Transaction Cost Economics approach. The fuzzy system was developed from input variables regarding information sharing between grower and dealer on “Demand/purchase Forecasting”, “Production Forecasting” and “Production Innovation”. The output variable is the level of uncertainty regarding the transaction between seller and buyer agent, which may serve as a system for detecting inefficiencies. Evidences from 27 cassava growers registered in the Regional Development Offices of Tupa and Assis, São Paulo, Brazil, and 48 of their dealers supported the development of the system. The mathematical model indicated that 55% of the growers present a Very High level of uncertainty, 33% present Medium or High. The others present Low or Very Low level of uncertainty. From the model, simulations of external interferences can be implemented in order to improve the degree of uncertainty and, thus, lower transaction costs.

Development of a measuring-control system for energy monitoring in low power

In this thesis a control system for an intelligent low voltage energy grid is presented, focusing on the control system created by using a multi-agent approach which makes it versatile and easy to expand according to the future needs. The control system is capable of forecasting the future energy consumption and decisions making on its own without human interaction when countering problems. The control system is a part of the St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University’s smart grid project that aims to create a smart grid for the university’s own use. The concept of the smart grid is interesting also for the consumers as it brings new possibilities to control own energy consumption and to save money. Smart grids makes it possible to monitor the energy consumption in real-time and to change own habits to save money. The intelligent grid also brings possibilities to integrate the renewable energy sources to the global or the local energy production much better than the current systems. Consumers can also sell their extra power to the global grid if they want.

A field survey of crop management practices and distribution of ALS resistant Euphorbia heterophylla in two states in southern Brazil

Herbicide resistance was reported in Brazil almost ten years ago. One of the main weeds with herbicide resistance is wild poinsettia (Euphorbia heterophylla). This work evaluates the distribution of ALS-resistant E. heterophylla in two states in southern Brazil and determines the major contributing management causes for weed resistance selection in the area. E. heterophylla seeds from 148 sites located in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul were sampled during 2001 and 2002. Farmers provided specific site data for weed control, tillage system, crop rotation and harvesting operations during previous years. ALS resistant E. heterophylla biotypes were found widely distributed in the survey area. Data analysis suggests seed dissemination is unlikely to explain the widespread distribution of resistance. The most probable factor for the selection of the resistant E. heterophylla is the persistent high use of ALS-inhibiting herbicides over time. Indirect evidence is presented demonstrating the need to educate legislators and farmers about the importance of herbicide mixtures as a strategy to prevent herbicide resistance.

Growth and nutrient concentration in coffee root system under weed species competition

The effects of competition of six weed species on growth, nutrient concentration and nutrient content of coffee plant root system under greenhouse conditions were evaluated. Thirty days after coffee seedling transplantation into 12 L pots with soil level area of 6.5 dm². Weeds were transplanted or sowed in these pots, at densities of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 plants per pot. The duration of competition (or weedy periods) from weed transplantation or emergence until plant harvesting, at the weed preflowering stage, were (in days): 77 (Bidens pilosa), 180 (Commelina diffusa), 82 (Leonurus sibiricus), 68 (Nicandra physaloides), 148 (Richardia brasiliensis) and 133 (Sida rhombifolia). Dry matter of coffee plants was linearly reduced with increasing B. pilosa and S. rhombifolia density, with pronounced effect of B. pilosa. C. diffusa was the only weed species whose increasing density in the pots did not diminish crop root dry matter. L. sibiricus, N. physaloides and R. brasiliensis reduced root dry matter of coffee plants by 75, 52 and 47%, respectively, as compared to the weed-free treatment, regardless of weed density. Under competition, even though weed species showed lower macronutrient concentration in the roots (except for P), they accumulated 4.2 (N), 12.3 (P), 4.3 (K), 5.5 (Ca), 7.6 (Mg) and 4.4 (S) times more nutrients in the roots than the coffee plants. Crop and weed nutrient concentration, as well as competition degrees greatly varied depending on both weed species and densities.

Weed control via intercropping with gliricidia: II. corn crop

A reduction in herbicide use is one of modern agriculture's main interests and several alternatives are being investigated with this objective, including intercropping. Gliricídia (Gliricidia sepium) mulch has no allelopathic effect on corn or beans but significantly decreased the population of some weed species. The objective of this study was to evaluate green ear and grain yield in corn cultivars as a response to weed control achieved via intercropping with gliricidia. A completely randomized block design with five replicates and split-plots was used. Cultivars AG 1051, AG 2060, BRS 2020, and PL 6880 (assigned to plots) were submitted to the following treatments: no hoeing, hoeing (performed at 20 and 40 days after sowing the corn), and corn intercropped with gliricidia. Gliricidia was grown in a transplanting system to ensure uniform germination and fast establishment in the field. Seeding was made in 200-cell trays with one seed per cell (35 mL volume). The plants emerged two to three days after sowing and were transplanted to a permanent site two to three days after emergence. Corn was sown on the same day gliricidia was transplanted. Sixteen weed species occurred at different frequencies, with uneven distribution in the experimental area. Cultivars AG 1051 and AG 2060 were the best with reference to most characteristics employed to evaluate green corn yield. Cultivar AG 1051 provided the highest grain yield. The highest green ear yield and grain yield values were obtained with hoeing. However, the fact that intercropped plots showed intermediate yield between the values obtained for hoed and non-hoed plots indicates that gliricidia was beneficial to corn, and exerted a certain level of weed control.

Upland rice yield as affected by previous summer crop rotation (soybean or upland rice) and glyphosate management on cover crops

The appropriate chemical management of cover crops in no-tillage aims to obtain greater benefits with its employment in agricultural systems. The objective of this study was to assess upland rice yield as affected by the previous summer crop, species and desiccation timing of cover crops by glyphosate. Sown cover crops were sown (November 2007), followed by rice in half of the experimental area and soybean in the other half (November 2008). After the harvesting of these crops, the same cover crops were sown again (March 2009) and followed by upland rice in the total area (November 2009). The experiment consisted of the combination of five cover crops (fallow, Panicum maximum, Brachiaria ruziziensis, B. brizantha and Pennisetum glaucum), four desiccation timings (30, 20, 10 and 0 days before rice sowing), and two antecedents of the summer crop (rice or soybean) under no-tillage system (NTS), plus two control treatments at conventional tillage system (CTS). Cover crops significantly affect rice grain yield and its components. There is a significant tendency to highest yield when cover crop desiccation is conducted farther from the rice sowing date (from 2,577.1 kg ha-1 - desiccation at rice sowing to 3,115.30 kg ha-1 - desiccation 30 days before rice sowing). Soybean as an antecedent of summer crop allows better upland rice yield (3,754 kg ha-1) than rice as an antecedent of summer crop (2,635 kg ha-1); fallow/soybean/fallow (4,507 kg ha-1) and millet/soybean/millet (4,765 kg ha-1) rotation at no-tillage system, and incorporated fallow /soybean/ incorporated fallow (4,427 kg ha-1) at conventional tillage system allow the highest rice yield; upland rice yield is similar at no-till (3,194 kg ha-1) and till system (2,878 kg ha-1).

Interactions between soybean and weeds in a replacement series system, considering the effects of water stress

Due to the increase of water deficiency in many farm regions and its meaning on weed interference, competitive interactions between soybean and three weeds were evaluated under water stress (20 to 40 days after transplanting) and no stress conditions. Three independent experiments were carried out in a growth chamber, being each one composed by the weeds Alternanthera tenella, Tridax procumbens or Digitaria ciliaris, along with the crop, in which soil water condition and plant composition effects were evaluated while in competition. A replacement series system was used, including both monoculture of each species and a mixture with a ratio of 50% between weed and soybean. A completely randomized design was used in factorial arrangement, with treatments distributed in three levels for plant composition factor (soybean and weeds monocultures, in addition to the soybean + weed mixture) and two levels for the water factor (with or without stress), amounting six treatments in each experiment. Soybean dry mass was higher than weed dry mass, when growing without water stress. However, under water stress conditions, the dry mass of soy was reduced in all experiments, mainly in the D. ciliaris comparative experiment. Water restriction was also significant in the plants' photosynthesis reduction in most of the experiments, reducing leaf area duration and efficiency of water use. Analysing all variables shows greater weed tolerance than soybean when submitted to water deficit and with distinct changes of their interactions and mechanism of competition, in each experiment.

Corn and soybean yields as affected by cover crops and herbicide timing under no-tillage system

To achieve better results in the no-tillage system (NTS), it is important to properly manage the cover crop prior to planting by using herbicides, usually glyphosate. The effect of glyphosate on plant coverage is slow, and plants take a few days to die completely. Thus, when applying the herbicide on the same day of planting soybean or corn, cover crops are still alive and standing, causing initial shading on seedlings of the crop and delaying its establishment. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the effect of distinct cover crops and their timing of desiccation prior to planting soybean or corn, on crop yield and yield components. Two experiments were installed, one for soybean and another for corn. Each experiment consisted in combining three cover crops (Brachiaria brizantha, common bean or millet) chemically desiccated at two timings before planting the crop (15 or 0 days before planting) under no-tillage system (NTS). Experiments were installed in a completely randomized block design with five replications. Brachiaria brizantha produced the highest amount of biomass; common bean and millet as cover crops allowed higher soybean grain yields; herbicide application under common bean, millet and Brachiaria brizantha 15 days before planting soybean allowed higher crop grain yields; desiccation timing of common bean did not affect corn grain yield; Brachiaria brizantha should be desiccated 15 days before planting corn to allow maximum grain yield; when millet was used as a cover crop, glyphosate application at planting of corn allowed the highest grain yield.

Wild onion (Asphodelus tenuifolius) competition in rainfed chickpea-chickpea cropping system

Chickpea yield potential is limited by weed competition in typical chickpea growing areas of Pakistan where zero tillage crop grown on moisture conserved from rains received during the months of September and August. The objective of this work was to evaluate the growth and yield characteristics of chickpea grown in coexistence with increasing densities of wild onion (Asphodelus tenuifolius). The experiment was comprised of six density levels viz. zero, 20, 40, 80, 160 and 320 plants m-2 of A. tenuifolius. A decrease in chickpea primary and secondary branches per plant, pods per plant, seeds per pod, 100-seed weight and seed yield was observed due to more accumulation of dry matter per increasing densities of A. tenuifolius. The increase in A. tenuifolius density accelerated chickpea yield losses and reached the maximum values of 28, 35, 42, 50, 58 and 96% at 20, 40, 80, 160 and 320 A. tenuifolius plants m-2, respectively. The yield loss estimation model showed that chickpea losses with infinite A. tenuifolius density were 60%. Yield reduction could be predicted by 2.52% with increase of one A. tenuifolius plant m-2. It is concluded that A. tenuifolius has a strong influence on chickpea seed yield and showed a linear response at the range of densities studied.

Volunteer RR® corn management in roundup ready® soybean-corn succession system

The present study evaluated the effects of cover crops (Pennisetum glaucum, Crotalaria spectabilis and Urochloa ruziziensis) associated with the application of herbicides {glyphosate; (glyphosate + haloxyfop-R); (glyphosate + fluazifop-p-butyl); (glyphosate + imazethapyr) and (glyphosate + imazaquin)} in soybean desiccation management for volunteer RR® corn control. The experiment was conducted under field conditions at Sinop-MT, during the 2013/2014 crop season, in a randomized complete blocks design with factorial scheme and four replications. The following parameter were evaluated: dry matter of cover crops and ground coverage rate, control of volunteer RR® corn present at the time of desiccation, dry matter, height and intoxication level on soybean plants caused by herbicides at 7, 14 and 28 days after emergence (DAE), control of volunteer RR® corn derived from emergence fluxes subsequent to desiccation management and soybean yield. The joint application of (glyphosate + haloxyfop-R) provided the best level of volunteer RR® corn control present at the time of desiccation. Satisfactory control (80%) of volunteer corn was obtained with the application of (glyphosate + imazethapyr). This treatment displayed an additional residual effect of imazethapyr, which efficiently controled volunteer RR® corn derived from fluxes subsequent to desiccation management, especially in treatments performed under U. ruziziensis straw. None of the herbicides used in desiccation management caused any significant effect on dry matter, height and phytotoxicity of soybean plants at 7, 14 and 28 DAE nor on grain yield.

Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Spectrum of stock price behavior - NYSE case study

The desire to create a statistical or mathematical model, which would allow predicting the future changes in stock prices, was born many years ago. Economists and mathematicians are trying to solve this task by applying statistical analysis and physical laws, but there are still no satisfactory results. The main reason for this is that a stock exchange is a non-stationary, unstable and complex system, which is influenced by many factors. In this thesis the New York Stock Exchange was considered as the system to be explored. A topological analysis, basic statistical tools and singular value decomposition were conducted for understanding the behavior of the market. Two methods for normalization of initial daily closure prices by Dow Jones and S&P500 were introduced and applied for further analysis. As a result, some unexpected features were identified, such as a shape of distribution of correlation matrix, a bulk of which is shifted to the right hand side with respect to zero. Also non-ergodicity of NYSE was confirmed graphically. It was shown, that singular vectors differ from each other by a constant factor. There are for certain results no clear conclusions from this work, but it creates a good basis for the further analysis of market topology.

Development of project cash flow forecasting process

Process management refers to improving the key functions of a company. The main functions of the case company - project management, procurement, finance, and human resource - use their own separate systems. The case company is in the process of changing its software. Different functions will use the same system in the future. This software change causes changes in some of the company’s processes. Project cash flow forecasting process is one of the changing processes. Cash flow forecasting ensures the sufficiency of money and prepares for possible changes in the future. This will help to ensure the company’s viability. The purpose of the research is to describe a new project cash flow forecasting process. In addition, the aim is to analyze the impacts of the process change, with regard to the project control department’s workload and resources through the process measurement, and how the impacts take the department’s future operations into account. The research is based on process management. Processes, their descriptions, and the way the process management uses the information, are discussed in the theory part of this research. The theory part is based on literature and articles. Project cash flow and forecasting-related benefits are also discussed. After this, the project cash flow forecasting as-is and to-be processes are described by utilizing information, obtained from the theoretical part, as well as the know-how of the project control department’s personnel. Written descriptions and cross-functional flowcharts are used for descriptions. Process measurement is based on interviews with the personnel – mainly cost controllers and department managers. The process change and the integration of two processes will allow work time for other things, for example, analysis of costs. In addition to the quality of the cash flow information will improve compared to the as-is process. Analyzing the department’s other main processes, department’s roles, and their responsibilities should be checked and redesigned. This way, there will be an opportunity to achieve the best possible efficiency and cost savings.

Oxidative enzymes activity in sugarcane juice as a function of the planting system

In Brazil, the largest producer of sugarcane in the world, the industrial process transforms this crop into ethanol and/or granulated sugar. Some cultivars exhibit enzymatic browning in the extracted sugarcane juice at levels harmful to the manufacturing process of white granulated sugar. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of sugarcane straw used as soil coverage, the use of different planting systems, and treatments with hydrogel polymer on enzymatic activity. The cultivar RB 86 7515 was sampled for 8 months; the first sample was obtained by cutting the upper portion of the stalk at the internode, which was taken to the laboratory for determination of the enzymatic activity of polyphenoloxidase (PPO) and peroxidase (POD). The soil coverage with different forms of straw as well as the planting systems did not change the enzymatic activity of polyphenoloxidase (PPO) and peroxidase (POD). The polyphenoloxidase (PPO) activity increased with the use of a polymer due to increased polyphenoloxidase (PPO) activity in the groove system. The enzymes studied showed changes in activity during the experimental period. The production of sugar at the end of the season (August to November) avoids the periods of highest enzymatic activity.

Heat Demand Forecasting Models’ Development: Use of Data Mining Tools in SQL Server Analysis Services

This thesis introduces heat demand forecasting models which are generated by using data mining algorithms. The forecast spans one full day and this forecast can be used in regulating heat consumption of buildings. For training the data mining models, two years of heat consumption data from a case building and weather measurement data from Finnish Meteorological Institute are used. The thesis utilizes Microsoft SQL Server Analysis Services data mining tools in generating the data mining models and CRISP-DM process framework to implement the research. Results show that the built models can predict heat demand at best with mean average percentage errors of 3.8% for 24-h profile and 5.9% for full day. A deployment model for integrating the generated data mining models into an existing building energy management system is also discussed.

Population Characteristics of Prawns in Natural and Selective Stocking System

present work deals with the various aspects of population characteristics of penaeus indicus ,Metapenaeus dobsoni and metapenaeus monoceros during their nursery phase in tidal ponds and adjacent backwaters.Importance of the present study is to suggest scientific basis for the management of penaeid resources in tidal ponds and backwaters based on their biological characteristics to ensure better yield.Seasonal closure of fishing will be effective in improving the size of the shrimp at harvest.Hydrology of tidal ponds varied with location, but showed a common seasonal pattem.Seasonal variation in temperature was very small. It fluctuated between 27.5 to 32.3°C in tidalponds and 26.9 to 29.9°C in open backwaters.Improvement of nursery habitats with due consideration for biological requirements of the resource will ensure better growth, survival and abundance of the stock.The recruitment, growth and emigration data of prawns from their nurseries can be used successfully for fishery forecasting. projecting juvenile growth forward through time, it is possible to establish, which cohort contributes to offshore fishery each year. So, by interpreting the recruitment and growth data of species in their nurseries with offshore catch data, fishery can be forecasted successfully.