Impacts of changing climate and land use on vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean ecosystem: insights from paleoecology and dynamic modeling

Forests near the Mediterranean coast have been shaped by millennia of human disturbance. Consequently, ecological studies relying on modern observations or historical records may have difficulty assessing natural vegetation dynamics under current and future climate. We combined a sedimentary pollen record from Lago di Massacciucoli, Tuscany, Italy with simulations from the LandClim dynamic vegetation model to determine what vegetation preceded intense human disturbance, how past changes in vegetation relate to fire and browsing, and the potential of an extinct vegetation type under present climate. We simulated vegetation dynamics near Lago di Massaciucoli for the last 7,000 years using a local chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction with combinations of three fire regimes (small infrequent, large infrequent, small frequent) and three browsing intensities (no browsing, light browsing, and moderate browsing), and compared model output to pollen data. Simulations with low disturbance support pollen-inferred evidence for a mixed forest dominated by Quercus ilex (a Mediterranean species) and Abies alba (a montane species). Whereas pollen data record the collapse of A. alba after 6000 cal yr bp, simulated populations expanded with declining summer temperatures during the late Holocene. Simulations with increased fire and browsing are consistent with evidence for expansion by deciduous species after A. alba collapsed. According to our combined paleo-environmental and modeling evidence, mixed Q. ilex and A. alba forests remain possible with current climate and limited disturbance, and provide a viable management objective for ecosystems near the Mediterranean coast and in regions that are expected to experience a mediterranean-type climate in the future.

Land use change and nitrogen feedbacks constrain the trajectory of the land carbon sink

Our understanding of Earth's carbon climate system depends critically upon interactions between rising atmospheric CO2, changing land use, and nitrogen limitation on vegetation growth. Using a global land model, we show how these factors interact locally to generate the global land carbon sink over the past 200 years. Nitrogen constraints were alleviated by N2 fixation in the tropics and by atmospheric nitrogen deposition in extratropical regions. Nonlinear interactions between land use change and land carbon and nitrogen cycling originated from three major mechanisms: (i) a sink foregone that would have occurred without land use conversion; (ii) an accelerated response of secondary vegetation to CO2 and nitrogen, and (iii) a compounded clearance loss from deforestation. Over time, these nonlinear effects have become increasingly important and reduce the present-day net carbon sink by ~40% or 0.4 PgC yr−1.

Role of Urbanization, Land-Use Diversity, and Livestock Intensification in Zoonotic Emerging Infectious Diseases

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) continue to significantly threaten human and animal health. While there has been some progress in identifying underlying proximal driving forces and causal mechanisms of disease emergence, the role of distal factors is most poorly understood. This article focuses on analyzing the statistical association between highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and urbanization, land-use diversity and poultry intensification. A special form of the urban transition—peri-urbanization—was hypothesized as being associated with ‘hot-spots’ of disease emergence. Novel metrics were used to characterize these distal risk factors. Our models, which combined these newly proposed risk factors with previously known natural and human risk factors, had a far higher predictive performance compared to published models for the first two epidemiological waves in Viet Nam. We found that when relevant risk factors are taken into account, urbanization is generally not a significant independent risk factor. However, urbanization spatially combines other risk factors leading to peri-urban places being the most likely ‘hot-spots’. The work highlights that peri-urban areas have highest levels of chicken density, duck and geese flock size diversity, fraction of land under rice, fraction of land under aquaculture compared to rural and urban areas. Land-use diversity, which has previously never been studied in the context of HPAI H5N1, was found to be a significant risk factor. Places where intensive and extensive forms of poultry production are collocated were found to be at greater risk.

Effects of elevation and land use on the biomass of trees, shrubs and herbs at Mount Kilimanjaro

The protection and sustainable management of forest carbon stocks, particularly in the tropics, is a key factor in the mitigation of global change effects. However, our knowledge of how land use and elevation affect carbon stocks in tropical ecosystems is very limited. We compared aboveground biomass of trees, shrubs and herbs for eleven natural and human-influenced habitat types occurring over a wide elevation gradient (866–4550 m) at the world's highest solitary mountain, Mount Kilimanjaro. Thanks to the enormous elevation gradient, we covered important natural habitat types, e.g., savanna woodlands, montane rainforest and afro-alpine vegetation, as well as important land-use types such as maize fields, grasslands, traditional home gardens, coffee plantations and selectively logged forest. To assess tree and shrub biomass with pantropical allometric equations, we measured tree height, diameter at breast height and wood density and to assess herbaceous biomass, we sampled destructively. Among natural habitats, tree biomass was highest at intermediate elevation in the montane zone (340 Mg ha−1), shrub biomass declined linearly from 7 Mg ha−1 at 900 m to zero above 4000 m, and, inverse to tree biomass, herbaceous biomass was lower at mid-elevations (1 Mg ha−1) than in savannas (900 m, 3 Mg ha−1) or alpine vegetation (above 4000 m, 6 Mg ha−1). While the various land-use types dramatically decreased woody biomass at all elevations, though to various degrees, herbaceous biomass was typically increased. Our study highlights tropical montane forest biomass as important aboveground carbon stock and quantifies the extent of the strong aboveground biomass reductions by the major land-use types, common to East Africa. Further, it shows that elevation and land use differently affect different vegetation strata, and thus the matrix for other organisms.

Land use intensification alters ecosystem multifunctionality via loss of biodiversity and changes to functional composition

Global change, especially land-use intensification, affects human well-being by impacting the deliv-ery of multiple ecosystem services (multifunctionality). However, whether biodiversity loss is amajor component of global change effects on multifunctionality in real-world ecosystems, as inexperimental ones, remains unclear. Therefore, we assessed biodiversity, functional compositionand 14 ecosystem services on 150 agricultural grasslands differing in land-use intensity. We alsointroduce five multifunctionality measures in which ecosystem services were weighted according torealistic land-use objectives. We found that indirect land-use effects, i.e. those mediated by biodi-versity loss and by changes to functional composition, were as strong as direct effects on average.Their strength varied with land-use objectives and regional context. Biodiversity loss explainedindirect effects in a region of intermediate productivity and was most damaging when land-useobjectives favoured supporting and cultural services. In contrast, functional composition shifts,towards fast-growing plant species, strongly increased provisioning services in more inherentlyunproductive grasslands.

Dry grasslands of Central-Eastern and South-Eastern Europe shaped by environmental heterogeneity and human land use – Editorial to the 10th Dry Grassland Special Feature

Der diesjährige 10. Trockenrasen-Sonderteil von Tuexenia beginnt mit einem Bericht über die aktuellen Aktivitäten der European Dry Grassland Group (EDGG). Zunächst geben wir einen Überblick über die Entwicklung der Mitgliederzahl. Dann berichten wir vom letzten European Dry Grassland Meeting in Tula (Russland, 2014) und vom letzten European Dry Grassland Field Workshop in Navarra (Spanien, 2014) und informieren über künftige Veranstaltungen der EDGG. Anschließend erläutern wir die Publikationsaktivitäten der EDGG. Im zweiten Teil des Editorials geben wir eine Einführung zu den fünf Artikeln des diesjährigen Trockenrasen-Sonderteils. Zwei Artikel beschäftigen sich mit der Syntaxonomie von Trockenrasen in Ost- bzw. Südosteuropa: der eine präsentiert erstmalig eine Gesamtklassifikation der Trockenrasengesellschaften Serbiens und des Kosovo während der andere Originalaufnahmen sub-montaner Graslandgesellschaften aus den bislang kaum untersuchten ukrainischen Ostkarpaten analysiert. Zwei weitere Artikel behandeln Trockenrasen-Feuchtwiesen-Komplexe im ungarischen Tiefland: Der eine behandelt den Einfluss der Landnutzung auf die Phytodiversität von Steppen und Feuchtwiesen, der andere den Einfluss von Niederschlagsschwankungen in einem Zeitraum von drei Jahren auf die Ausbildung salzbeeinflusster Steppen-Feuchtwiesen-Komplexe. Der fünfte Artikel analysiert landnutzungsbedingte Veränderungen des Graslands des Tsentralen-Balkan-Nationalparks in Bulgarien über einen Zeitraum von 65 Jahren

A brief project completion report of "Pilot project on participatory planning of sustainable land use in Chancho Obi Kebele"

Description of project activities and accountancy report.

Climatic change and contemporaneous land-use phases north and south of the Alps 2300 BC to 800 AD

Fluctuations in the Δ14C curve and subsequent gaps of archaeological findings at 800–650 and 400–100 BC in western and central Europe may indicate major climate-driven land-abandonment phases. To address this hypothesis radiocarbon-dated sediments from four lakes in Switzerland were studied palynologically. Pollen analysis indicates contemporaneous phases of forest clearances and of intensified land-use at 1450–1250 BC, 650–450 BC, 50 BC–100 AD and around 700 AD. These land-use expansions coincided with periods of warm climate as recorded by the Alpine dendroclimatic and Greenland oxygen isotope records. Our results suggest that harvest yields would have increased synchronously over wide areas of central and southern Europe during periods of warm and dry climate. Combined interpretation of palaeoecological and archaeological findings suggests that higher food production led to increased human populations. Positive long-term trends in pollen values of Cerealia and Plantago lanceolata indicate that technical innovations during the Bronze and Iron Age (e.g. metal ploughs, scythes, hay production, fertilising methods) gradually increased agricultural productivity. The successful adoption of yield-increasing advances cannot be explained by climatic determinism alone. Combined with archaeological evidence, our results suggest that despite considerable cycles of spatial and demographic reorganisation (repeated land abandonments and expansions, as well as large-scale migrations and population decreases), human societies were able to shift to lower subsistence levels without dramatic ruptures in material culture. However, our data imply that human societies were not able to compensate rapidly for harvest failures when climate deteriorated. Agriculture in marginal areas was abandoned, and spontaneous reforestations took place on abandoned land south and north of the Alps. Only when the climate changed again to drier and warmer conditions did a new wide-spread phase of forest clearances and field extensions occur, allowing the reoccupation of previously abandoned areas. Spatial distribution of cereal cultivation and growth requirements of Cerealia species suggest that increases in precipitation were far more decisive in driving crop failures over central and southern Europe than temperature decreases.

Vegetation and fire history of coastal north-eastern Sardinia (Italy) under changing Holocene climates and land use

Little is known about the vegetation and fire history of Sardinia, and especially the long-term history of the thermo-Mediterranean belt that encompasses its entire coastal lowlands. A new sedimentary record from a coastal lake based on pollen, spores, macrofossils and microscopic charcoal analysis is used to reconstruct the vegetation and fire history in north-eastern Sardinia. During the mid-Holocene (c. 8,100–5,300 cal bp), the vegetation around Stagno di Sa Curcurica was characterised by dense Erica scoparia and E. arborea stands, which were favoured by high fire activity. Fire incidence declined and evergreen broadleaved forests of Quercus ilex expanded at the beginning of the late Holocene. We relate the observed vegetation and fire dynamics to climatic change, specifically moister and cooler summers and drier and milder winters after 5,300 cal bp. Agricultural activities occurred since the Neolithic and intensified after c. 7,000 cal bp. Around 2,750 cal bp, a further decline of fire incidence and Erica communities occurred, while Quercus ilex expanded and open-land communities became more abundant. This vegetation shift coincided with the historically documented beginning of Phoenician period, which was followed by Punic and Roman civilizations in Sardinia. The vegetational change at around 2,750 cal bp was possibly advantaged by a further shift to moister and cooler summers and drier and milder winters. Triggers for climate changes at 5,300 and 2,750 cal bp may have been gradual, orbitally-induced changes in summer and winter insolation, as well as centennial-scale atmospheric reorganizations. Open evergreen broadleaved forests persisted until the twentieth century, when they were partly substituted by widespread artificial pine plantations. Our results imply that highly flammable Erica vegetation, as reconstructed for the mid-Holocene, could re-emerge as a dominant vegetation type due to increasing drought and fire, as anticipated under global change conditions.