Automotive manufacturer risk analysis: meeting the automotive fuel economy standard. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

Modern tunnel practice, illustrated by examples taken from actual recent work in the United States and in foreign countries.

Appendix: Glossary of some of the more unusual terms used in tunneling: p. 301-307.

Action research to explore perceptions of risk in project management

Uses research in a major UK company on the introduction of an electronic document management system to explore perceptions of, and attitudes to, risk. Phenomenological methods were used; with subsequent dialogue transcripts evaluated with Winmax dialogue software, using an adapted theoretical framework based upon an analysis of the literature. The paper identifies a number of factors, and builds a framework, that should support a greater understanding of risk assessment and project management by the academic community and practitioners.

Noise trader risk and the welfare effects of privatization

Excessive volatility of asset prices like that generated in the 'noise trader' model of De Long et al. is one factor that plausibly might contribute to an explanation of the equity premium. We extend the De Long et al. model to allow for privatization of publicly-owned assets and assess the welfare effects of such privatization in the presence of excess volatility arising from noise traders' mistaken beliefs.

Desire to drink in low- and high-risk social drinkers: An experimental analogue of impaired control

This study used a novel cue exposure paradigm to investigate the differences between high- and low-risk drinkers in their desire to drink during a drinking session. Fifty-three self-selected participants were assigned to high- or low-risk drinking groups based on their self-reported consumption of alcohol, then compared on their desire to drink over a 90 min paced drinking session. High-risk drinkers showed increasing desire over the session, while low-risk drinkers' desire began to decrease after only a short drinking period. The perceived and actual effects of the alcohol did not appear to be able to account for the difference. Results are discussed with reference to issues of impaired control. Suggestions for future research directions are also offered.

The relationship between media reporting of suicide and actual suicide in Australia

This study aimed to determine whether media items about suicide were associated with differential increases in actual suicides. Data were available on 4635 suicide-related items appearing in Australian newspapers and on radio and television news and current affairs shows between March 2000 and February 2001. These data were combined with national data on completed suicides occurring during the same period, by a process that involved identifying the date and geographical reach of the media items and determining the number of suicides occurring in the same location in selected weeks pre- and post-item. Regression analyses were conducted to determine whether the likelihood of an increase in post-item suicides could be explained by particular item characteristics. We found that 39% of media items were followed by an increase in mate suicides, and 31% by an increase in female suicides. Media items were more likely to be associated with increases in both male and female suicides if they occurred in the context of multiple other reports on suicide (versus occurring in isolation), if they were broadcast on television (versus other media), and if they were about completed suicide (versus attempted suicide or suicidal ideation). Different item content appeared to be influential for males and females, with an increase in male suicides being associated with items about an individual's experience of suicide and opinion pieces, and an increase in female suicides being associated with items about mass- or murder-suicide. Item prominence and quality were not differentially associated with increases in male or female suicides. Further research on this topic is required, but in the meantime there is a need to remain vigilant about how suicide news is reported. Mental health professionals and suicide experts should collaborate with media professionals to try to balance 'public interest' against the risk of harm. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Risk of serious NSAID-related gastrointestinal events during long-term exposure: a systematic review

Objective: Exposure to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) is associated wit increased risk of serious gastrointestinal (GI) events compared with non-exposure. We investigated whether that risk is sustained over time. Data sources: Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (to 2002); MEDLINE, EMBASE, Derwent Drug File and Current Contents (1999-2002); manual searching of reviews (1999-2002). Study selection: From 479 search results reviewed and 221 articles retrieved, seven studies of patients exposed to prescription non-selective NSAIDs for more than 6 months and reporting time-dependent serious GI event rates were selected for quantitative data synthesis. These were stratified into two groups by study design. Data extraction: Incidence of GI events and number of patients at specific time points were extracted. Data synthesis: Meta-regression analyses were performed. Change in risk was evaluated by testing whether the slope of the regression line declined over time. Four randomised controlled trials (RCTs) provided evaluable data from five NSAID arms (aspirin, naproxen, two ibuprofen arms, and diclofenac). When the RCT data were combined, a small significant decline in annualised risk was seen: -0.005% (95% Cl, -0.008% to -0.001%) per month. Sensitivity analyses were conducted because there was disparity within the RCT data. The pooled estimate from three cohort studies showed no significant decline in annualised risk over periods up to 2 years: -0.003% (95% Cl, -0.008% to 0.003%) per month. Conclusions: Small decreases in risk over time were observed; these were of negligible clinical importance. For patients who need long-term (> 6 months) treatment, precautionary measures should be considered to reduce the net probability of serious GI events over the anticipated treatment duration. The effect of intermittent versus regular daily therapy on long-term risk needs further investigation.

Is modern medicine at risk of losing the plot?

Contemporary medicine has much to its credit, but has created an insatiable demand for new technologies and more health services, fed by commercial promotion, professional advocacy and sociopolitical pressure. Total health expenditure at the national level is now almost 10% of gross domestic product and is expected to top 16% by 2020. After recent inquiries into the failings of its public health system, the Queensland Government has committed itself to a 25% increase in expenditure on health over the next 5 years. But will it lead to better population health, and is it sustainable? The return-on-investment curve for modern health care may be flattening out, in an environment of growing numbers of older patients with chronic illnesses, maldistribution of services and hospital overcrowding. A change in thinking is required if current medical practice is to avoid imploding when confronted with the next major economic downturn. Health policy, service funding and clinical training must focus on critical appraisal of the effectiveness of health care technologies and the structure and financing of health care systems. Practising clinicians will be obliged to provide leadership in determining value for money in the choice of health care for specific patient populations and how that care is delivered.

Lifetime suicide risk in major depression: sex and age determinants

Background: Recent work has demonstrated that the lifetime suicide risk for patients with DSM IV Major Depression cannot mathematically approximate the accepted figure of 15%. Gender and age significantly affect both the prevalence of major depression and suicide risk, Methods: Gender and age stratified calculations were made on the entire population of the USA in 1994 using a mathematical algorithm. Sex specific corrections for under-reporting were incorporated into the design. Results: The lifetime suicide risks for men and women were 7% and 1%, respectively. The combined risk was 3.4%. The male:female ratio for suicide risk in major depression was 10:1 for youths under 25, and 5.6:1 for adults. Conclusions: Suicide in major depression is predominantly a male problem, although complacency towards female sufferers is to be avoided. Diagnosis of major depression is of limited help in predicting suicide risk compared to case specific factors. The male experience of depression that leads to suicide is often not identified as a legitimate medical complaint by either sufferers or professionals. Increasing help-accessing by males is a priority. Clinical implications: Patients with a history of hospitalisation; comorbidity, especially for substance abuse; and who are male, require greater vigilance for suicide risk. It may be that for males che threshold for diagnosing and treating major depression needs to be lowered. Limitations: This research is based on a mathematical algorithm to approximate a life-long longitudinal study that identifies community cases of depression. Our findings therefore rely on the validity of the statistics used. Extrapolation is limited to populations with an actual suicide rate of 17/100,000 or less and a lifetime prevalence of major depression of 17% or more. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Auditor's engagement risk and audit fees:the role of the audit firm alumni

This study explores the effect of the association of audit firm alumni with their alma mater on audit prices. The tests indicate that there is a moderate reduction of up to 21% in the level of audit fee when alumni (i.e., former employees) of the incumbent audit firm sit on the client board of directors which is consistent with the engagement risk theory. This suggests that there is an 'alumni effect' in the market for audit services. The findings hold only in the large company segment of the market. The results are robust to different model specifications and alternative samples. The sample comprises all executive and non-executive directors who run the UK quoted companies and are simultaneously ICAEW qualified chartered accountants. The study's implications for the accounting profession and the regulators are also discussed. © 2007 The Author Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Requirement for and optimisation of premium intraocular lenses

Premium intraocular lenses (IOLs) aim to surgically correct astigmatism and presbyopia following cataract extraction, optimising vision and eliminating the need for cataract surgery in later years. It is usual to fully correct astigmatism and to provide visual correction for distance and near when prescribing spectacles and contact lenses, however for correction with the lens implanted during cataract surgery, patients are required to purchase the premium IOLs and pay surgery fees outside the National Health Service in the UK. The benefit of using toric IOLs was thus demonstrated, both in standard visual tests and real-world situations. Orientation of toric IOLs during implantation is critical and the benefit of using conjunctival blood vessels for alignment was shown. The issue of centration of IOLs relative to the pupil was also investigated, showing changes with the amount of dilation and repeat dilation evaluation, which must be considered during surgery to optimize the visual performance of premium IOLs. Presbyopia is a global issue, of growing importance as life expectancy increases, with no real long-term cure. Despite enhanced lifestyles, changes in diet and improved medical care, presbyopia still presents in modern life as a significant visual impairment. The onset of presbyopia was found to vary with risk factors including alcohol consumption, smoking, UV exposure and even weight as well as age. A new technique to make measurement of accommodation more objective and robust was explored, although needs for further design modifications were identified. Due to dysphotopsia and lack of intermediate vision through most multifocal IOL designs, the development of a trifocal IOL was shown to minimize these aspects. The current thesis, therefore, emphasises the challenges of premium IOL surgery and need for refinement for optimum visual outcome in addition to outlining how premium IOLs may provide long-term and successful correction of astigmatism and presbyopia.

Real options in multinational decision-making:managerial awareness and risk implications

This paper addresses the theme of real options decision-making in multinational corporations (MNCs) and stresses the role of real options attention and managerial learning in company performance. Using a sample of 278 large MNCs with categorised degrees of managerial real options awareness, we examine the risk implications of switching options in multinational operations, and explore the extent to which the real options logic can be classified as “best practice” in decision-making and risk management. Our results reveal that MNCs which have high managerial awareness about their real options are able to reduce their downside risk through multinationality, organisational slack and other firm characteristics. This finding does not apply fully to MNCs without evidence of such an awareness. Also, although real options awareness does not systematically guarantee lower downside risk from operations, supplementary results indicate that MNCs with evidence of significant investment in the acquisition of real options knowledge tend to outperform competitors that are unaware of their real options. This suggests that if real options are explored and exploited appropriately, real options decision-making can result into superior performance for MNCs in the long-term.

Development of a risk-oriented strategic sourcing (ROSS) framework for the construction and electronics manufacturing industries

Strategic sourcing has increased in importance in recent years, and now plays an important role in companies’ planning. The current volatility in supply markets means companies face multiple challenges involving lock-in situations, supplier bankruptcies or supply security issues. In addition, their exposure can increase due to natural disasters, as witnessed recently in the form of bird flu, volcanic ash and tsunamis. Therefore, the primary focus of this study is risk management in the context of strategic sourcing. The study presents a literature review on sourcing based on the 15 years from 1998–2012, and considers 131 academic articles. The literature describes strategic sourcing as a strategic, holistic process in managing supplier relationships, with a long-term focus on adding value to the company and realising competitive advantage. Few studies discovered the real risk impact and status of risk management in strategic sourcing, and evaluation across countries and industries was limited, with the construction sector particularly under-researched. This methodology is founded on a qualitative study of twenty cases across Ger-many and the United Kingdom from the construction sector and electronics manufacturing industries. While considering risk management in the context of strategic sourcing, the thesis takes into account six dimensions that cover trends in strategic sourcing, theoretical and practical sourcing models, risk management, supply and demand management, critical success factors and the strategic supplier evaluation. The study contributes in several ways. First, recent trends are traced and future needs identified across the research dimensions of countries, industries and companies. Second, it evaluates critical success factors in contemporary strategic sourcing. Third, it explores the application of theoretical and practical sourcing models in terms of effectiveness and sustainability. Fourth, based on the case study findings, a risk-oriented strategic sourcing framework and a model for strategic sourcing are developed. These are based on the validation of contemporary requirements and a critical evaluation of the existing situation. It contemplates the empirical findings and leads to a structured process to manage risk in strategic sourcing. The risk-oriented framework considers areas such as trends, corporate and sourcing strategy, critical success factors, strategic supplier selection criteria, risk assessment, reporting, strategy alignment and reporting. The proposed model highlights the essential dimensions in strategic sourcing and guides us to a new definition of strategic sourcing supported by this empirical study.

Managing risk in enterprise resource planning projects

Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) projects are strategic and capital intensive, so failure may be costly and even cause bankruptcy of companies. Previous studies have proposed ways for improving implementation, but they are mostly generic and follow standardized project management practices as specified in various standards (e.g. the “project management body of knowledge” of the Project Management Institute). Because ERP is interdisciplinary (involving change management, project management and information technology management), it warrants a customized approach to managing risks throughout the life cycle of implementation and operation. Through a practical case study, this paper demonstrates a qualitative, user friendly approach to ERP project risk management. Firstly, through a literature review it identifies various risk factors in ERP implementation. Secondly, the risk management practices of a UK-based multinational consulting company in one of its clients are evaluated. The risk factors from the case study organization and literature are then compared and discussed.