An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and human settlements Sector in Barbados

This study assesses the potential economic impact of climate change on coastal human settlements in the Caribbean, with specific reference to Barbados, and evaluates the costs and benefits of undertaking various adaptation strategies. The aim is to assist Caribbean territories in developing the strategies and capacity needed to deal with the potential impact of severe weather events that are anticipated to occur with increased frequency and intensity as a result of climate change. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources.This research focuses on how human settlements distributed along the coast of Guyana, especially those in low elevation coastal zones (LECZ)are affected by these impacts. Focusing on three potential transmission sources - sea-level rise, stronger storm hazards and increased precipitation – the study considers the vulnerability of populations in the LECZ areas and estimates the overall threat posed by climate change to coastal populations and infrastructure. Vulnerability to climate change (measured as exposed assets) was estimated for four emission scenarios as outlined by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), namely the A1, A2, B1 and B2 scenarios for the period 2010 to 2100 and as detailed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), using global circulation models (GCM) and storm surge hazard maps.

Non-Markovianity through flow of information between a system and an environment

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The relationship between obesity, low back pain, and lumbar disc degeneration when genetics and the environment are considered: a systematic review of twin studies

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: The relationships between obesity and low back pain (LBP) and lumbar disc degeneration (LDD) remain unclear. It is possible that familial factors, including genetics and early environment, affect these relationships.PURPOSE: To investigate the relationship between obesity-related measures (eg, weight, body mass index [BMI]) and LBP and LDD using twin studies, where the effect of genetics and early environment can be controlled.STUDY DESIGN: A systematic review with meta-analysis.METHODS: MEDLINE, CINAHL, Scopus, Web of Science, and EMBASE databases were searched from the earliest records to August 2014. All cross-sectional and longitudinal observational twin studies identified by the search strategy were considered for inclusion. Two investigators independently assessed the eligibility, conducted the quality assessment, and extracted the data. Metaanalyses (fixed or random effects, as appropriate) were used to pool studies'estimates of association.RESULTS: In total, 11 articles met the inclusion criteria. Five studies were included in the LBP analysis and seven in the LDD analysis. For the LBP analysis, pooling of the five studies showed that the risk of having LBP for individuals with the highest levels of BMI or weight was almost twice that of people with a lower BMI (odds ratio [OR] 1.8; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6-2.0; I-2 = 0%). A dose-response relationship was also identified. When genetics and the effects of a shared early environment were adjusted for using a within-pair twin case-control analysis, pooling of three studies showed a reduced but statistically positive association between obesity and prevalence of LBP (OR 1.5; 95% CI 1.1-2.1; I-2 = 0%). However, the association was further diminished and not significant (OR 1.4; 95% CI 0.8-2.3; I-2 = 0%) when pooling included two studies on monozygotic twin pairs only. Seven studies met the inclusion criteria for LDD. When familial factors were not controlled for, body weight was positively associated with LDD in all five cross-sectional studies. Only two cross-sectional studies investigated the relationship between obesity-related measures and LDD accounting for familial factors, and the results were conflicting. One longitudinal study in LBP and three longitudinal studies in LDD found no increase in risk in obese individuals, whether or not familial factors were controlled for.CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this review suggest that genetics and early environment are possible mechanisms underlying the relationship between obesity and LBP; however, a direct causal link between these conditions appears to be weak. Further longitudinal studies using the twin design are needed to better understand the complex mechanisms underlying the associations between obesity, LBP, and LDD.

Teacher-learning process based on an immersive and interactive environment

This paper explores the benefits of using immersive and interactive multiprojection environments (CAVE) to visualize molecules, and how it improves users’ understanding. We have proposed and implemented a tool for teachers to manipulate molecules and another to edit molecules and assist students at home. The contribution of the present research project are these tool that allows investigating structures, properties and dynamics of a molecular system which are extremely complex and comprises millions of atoms. The experience is enriched through multimedia information associated with parts of the model; for example, videos and text can be linked to specific molecule, demonstrating some detail. This solution is based on a teaching-learning process.

Killer Whales and Marine Mammal Trends in The North Pacific—A Re-Examination of Evidence for Sequential Megafauna Collapse and the Prey-Switching Hypothesis

Springer et al. (2003) contend that sequential declines occurred in North Pacific populations of harbor and fur seals, Steller sea lions, and sea otters. They hypothesize that these were due to increased predation by killer whales, when industrial whaling’s removal of large whales as a supposed primary food source precipitated a prey switch. Using a regional approach, we reexamined whale catch data, killer whale predation observations, and the current biomass and trends of potential prey, and found little support for the prey-switching hypothesis. Large whale biomass in the Bering Sea did not decline as much as suggested by Springer et al., and much of the reduction occurred 50–100 yr ago, well before the declines of pinnipeds and sea otters began; thus, the need to switch prey starting in the 1970s is doubtful. With the sole exception that the sea otter decline followed the decline of pinnipeds, the reported declines were not in fact sequential. Given this, it is unlikely that a sequential megafaunal collapse from whales to sea otters occurred. The spatial and temporal patterns of pinniped and sea otter population trends are more complex than Springer et al. suggest, and are often inconsistent with their hypothesis. Populations remained stable or increased in many areas, despite extensive historical whaling and high killer whale abundance. Furthermore, observed killer whale predation has largely involved pinnipeds and small cetaceans; there is little evidence that large whales were ever a major prey item in high latitudes. Small cetaceans (ignored by Springer et al.) were likely abundant throughout the period. Overall, we suggest that the Springer et al. hypothesis represents a misleading and simplistic view of events and trophic relationships within this complex marine ecosystem.

Chicana, Indian and Sudanese Perspectives of Teaching in the Academy: Three Levels of Experience in the Teaching-Learning and Social Environment

“Women of color from any culture or country face additional barriers in predominantly white institutions. This panel presents perspectives and experiences of three women from three cultures and three different levels of academia—a Chicana Latino visiting professor, a graduate teaching assistant from India, and a Sudanese graduate research assistant.”

Coastal and shelf circulation in the vicinity of Camamu Bay (14 degrees S), Eastern Brazilian Shelf

The Camamu Bay (CMB) is located on the narrowest shelf along the South American coastline and close to the formation of two major Western Boundary Currents (WBC), the Brazil/North Brazil Current (BC/NBC). These WBC flow close to the shelf break/slope region and are expected to interact with the shelf currents due to the narrowness of the shelf. The shelf circulation is investigated in terms of current variability based on an original data set covering the 2002-2003 austral summer and the 2003 austral autumn. The Results show that the currents at the shelf are mainly wind driven, experiencing a complete reversal between seasons due to a similar change in the wind field. Currents at the inner-shelf have a polarized nature, with the alongshore velocity mostly driven by forcings at the sub-inertial frequency band and the cross-shore velocity mainly supra-inertially forced, with the tidal currents playing an important role at this direction. The contribution of the forcing mechanisms at the mid-shelf changes between seasons. During the summer, forcings in the two frequency bands are important to drive the currents with a similar contribution of the tidal currents. On the other hand, during the autumn season, the alongshore velocity is mostly driven by sub-inertial forcings and tidally driven currents still remain important in both directions. Moreover, during the autumn when the stratification is weaker, the response of the shelf currents to the wind forcing presents a barotropic signature. The meso-scale processes related to the WBC flowing at the shelf/slope region also affect the circulation within the shelf, which contribute to cause significant current reversals during the autumn season. Currents at the shelf-estuary connection are clearly supra-inertially forced with the tidal currents playing a key role in the generation of the along-channel velocities. The sub-inertial forcings at this location act mainly to drive the weak ebb currents which were highly correlated with both local and remote wind forcing during the summer season. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The importance of mesofauna and decomposition environment on leaf decomposition in three forests in southeastern Brazil

We examined the effects of soil mesofauna and the litter decomposition environment (above and belowground) on leaf decomposition rates in three forest types in southeastern Brazil. To estimate decomposition experimentally, we used litterbags with a standard substrate in a full-factorial experimental design. We used model selection to compare three decomposition models and also to infer the importance of forest type, decomposition environment, mesofauna, and their interactions on the decomposition process. Rather than the frequently used simple and double-exponential models, the best model to describe our dataset was the exponential deceleration model, which assumed a single organic compartment with an exponential decrease of the decomposition rate. Decomposition was higher in the wet than in the seasonal forest, and the differences between forest types were stronger aboveground. Regarding litter decomposition environment, decomposition was predominantly higher below than aboveground, but the magnitude of this effect was higher in the seasonal than in wet forests. Mesofauna exclusion treatments had slower decomposition, except aboveground into the Semi-deciduous Forest, where the mesofauna presence did not affect decomposition. Furthermore, the effect of mesofauna was stronger in the wet forests and belowground. Overall, our results suggest that, in a regional scale, both decomposers activity and the positive effect of soil mesofauna in decomposition are constrained by abiotic factors, such as moisture conditions.

Different lead sources in an abandoned uranium mine (Urgeirica - Central Portugal) and its environment impact - isotopic evidence

Different lead sources were identified in a large uranium tailings deposit (5Mton) in the Central Region of Portugal using lead isotopic ratios obtained by ICP-QMS. These ratios helped to clarify the different sources of Pb within the tailings deposit and the impact of the tailings on the surroundings. Ten depth profiles were used for isotopic characterization of the tailings deposit; the lead background signature was evaluated in seven regional rocks (granites) and was defined as being 28 +/- 1 mg kg(-1) for Pb bulk concentration and with isotopic ratios of 1.264(2) for Pb-206/Pb-207 and 1.962(7) for Pb-208/Pb-206. In order to understand Pb isotope distribution within the tailings deposit, simple mixing/mass balance models were used to fit experimental data, involving: (1) the background component; (2) uranium ores (pitchblende) characterized by the ratios Pb-206/Pb-207 of 1.914(3) and Pb-208/Pb-206 of 1.235(2); and (3) an unknown Pb source (named 'Fonte 5') characterized by the ratios Pb-206/Pb-207 of 3.079(7) and Pb-208/Pb-206 of 0.715(1). This unknown source showed high radiogenic ratios found in the water of some tailings depth profiles located in a very specific position in the dump. In terms of isotopic characterization, 69% of the deposit material resulted from the background source, 25% from uranium minerals and only 6% from other uranium mines in the region. Finally, the environment impact revealed that the pollution was focused only in the beginning of the stream and not in the surroundings, nor in the groundwater system. The lead in the water was found only in colloidal form with a clear pitchblende signature. Those data revealed possible remobilization phenomena along the bedside and margins of the watercourse.

Speciation and fractionation of Ca and the REE in fresh and marine waters

This study is concerned with speciation and fractionation of the rare earth elements (REE) and calcium (Ca) in aqueous solutions. The aim is to investigate the chemical states and physical sizes in which these elements can be present. The REE (including neodymium) and Ca have contrasting geochemical behavior in aqueous solutions. Ca is a major dissolved element, while the REE are trace components and highly reactive with aquatic particles. The major interests of the five papers included in this thesis are the following: · Papers I and V deal with the behavior of neodymium (Nd) and its isotopes in the Kalix River and some marine waters. · The diffusive gradients in thin-films (DGT) method is developed for measuring Ca and Mg in Paper II. · Paper III presents a speciation and fractionation study of Ca in the Kalix and Amazonian rivers. · The rare earth elements and their carrier phases are investigated in the Kalix river in Paper IV. For most elements a detailed study of speciation and fractionation can not be performed using only one method. This is due to the overall heterogeneity of the material, considering both size and chemical composition, which is present in aquatic solutions. During this project the aquatic geochemistry of the REE and Ca has been studied using mainly three methods; cross-flow filtration (CFF), field-flow fractionation (FFF) and diffusive gradients in thin-films (DGT). Field work has to a large part been conducted in the Kalix River, in northern Sweden, which is one of the last pristine river systems in Europe. Some field work has also been conducted in the Baltic Sea and the Arctic Ocean. Results from Amazonian rivers are also presented. These are the main conclusions from this work: The DGT technique works equally well for measuring Ca and Mg in natural waters as previously reported for trace metal. A significant colloidal phase for Ca could be detected in the Kalix River and in different Amazonian rivers. This was concluded independently using both CFF and FFF. Variations in REE signatures in the Kalix River suggests two different pathways for the REE during weathering and release form soil profiles and transport in the river. No significant variation in Nd-isotopic composition could be detected in the Kalix River although concentrations varied by a factor of ~10. This suggests that there is one major source for Nd in the river although different pathways for the REE may exist. A study of Nd in the Kalix River, the Baltic Sea and the Arctic Ocean showed that the isotopic compositions in the diffusible fractions were similar to water samples. However, the relative amount of diffusible Nd increased with salinity, probably reflecting the lower concentration of colloidal and particulate material in marine waters.

Speleogenesis and secondary cave minerals in quartz-sandstone and quartzite environment

The main objective of this research is to improve the comprehension of the processes controlling the formation of caves and karst-like morphologies in quartz-rich lithologies (more than 90% quartz), like quartz-sandstones and metamorphic quartzites. In the scientific community the processes actually most retained to be responsible of these formations are explained in the “Arenisation Theory”. This implies a slow but pervasive dissolution of the quartz grain/mineral boundaries increasing the general porosity until the rock becomes incohesive and can be easily eroded by running waters. The loose sands produced by the weathering processes are then evacuated to the surface through processes of piping due to the infiltration of waters from the fracture network or the bedding planes. To deal with these problems we adopted a multidisciplinary approach through the exploration and the study of several cave systems in different tepuis. The first step was to build a theoretical model of the arenisation process, considering the most recent knowledge about the dissolution kinetics of quartz, the intergranular/grain boundaries diffusion processes, the primary diffusion porosity, in the simplified conditions of an open fracture crossed by a continuous flow of undersatured water. The results of the model were then compared with the world’s widest dataset (more than 150 analyses) of water geochemistry collected till now on the tepui, in superficial and cave settings. All these studies allowed verifying the importance and the effectiveness of the arenisation process that is confirmed to be the main process responsible of the primary formation of these caves and of the karst-like superficial morphologies. The numerical modelling and the field observations allowed evaluating a possible age of the cave systems around 20-30 million of years.

Toxoplasma gondii in animals and the environment

Toxoplasma gondii is an obligate intracellular parasite capable of infecting virtually all warm-blooded species, including humans, but cats are the only definitive hosts. Humans or animals acquire T. gondii infection by ingesting food or water contaminated with sporulated oocysts or by ingesting tissue cysts containing bradyzoites. Toxoplasmosis has the highest human incidence among zoonotic parasitic diseases, but it is still considered an underreported zoonosis. The importance of T. gondii primary infection in livestock is related to the ability of the parasite to produce tissue cysts in infected animals, which may represent important sources of infection for humans. Consumption of undercooked mutton and pork are considered important sources of human Toxoplasma gondii. The first aim of this thesis was to develop a rapid and sensitive in- house indirect ELISA for the detection of antibodies against T. gondii in sheep sera. ROC-curve analysis showed high discriminatory power (AUC=0.999) and high sensitivity (99.4%) and specificity (99.8%) of the method. The ELISA was used to test a batch of sheep sera (375) collected in the Forli-Cesena district. The overall prevalence was estimated at 41.9% demonstrating that T. gondii infection is widely distributed in sheep reared in Forli-Cesena district. Since the epidemiological impact of waterborne transmission route of T.gondii to humans is now thought to be more significant than previously believed, the second aim of the thesis was to evaluate PCR based methods for detecting T. gondii DNA in raw and finished drinking water samples collected in Scotland. Samples were tested using a quantitative PCR on 529 bp repetitive elements. Only one raw water sample (0.3%), out of the 358 examined, tested T. gondii positive demonstrating that there is no evidence that tap water is a source of Toxoplasma infection in Scotland.