Pollen profile of sediment core Dethlingen, Germany

To better understand the environmental variability during the Holsteinian interglacial, we have palynologically analyzed a new core from Dethlingen, northern Germany, at a decadal resolution. Our data provide insights into the vegetation dynamics and thus also climate variability during the meso- to telocratic forest phases of the interglacial. Temperate mixed forests dominated the regional landscape throughout the Holsteinian. However, changes in the forest composition during the younger stages of the interglacial suggest a climatic transition towards milder conditions in winter. The strong presence of boreal floral elements during the older stages of the Holsteinian interglacial suggests a high seasonality. In contrast, during the younger stages the development of sub-Atlantic and Atlantic floral elements suggests increasingly warm and humid climatic conditions. Peak warming during the younger stage of the Holsteinian is marked by the maximum pollen abundances of Buxus, Abies, and Quercus. Although the vegetation dynamics suggest a general warming trend throughout the Holsteinian interglacial, abrupt as well as gradual changes in the relative abundances of temperate plants indicate considerable climatic variability. In particular, two marked declines in temperate taxa leading to the transient development of boreal and sub-temperate forests indicate short-term climatic oscillations that occurred within full interglacial conditions. The palynological signatures of these two regressive phases in vegetation development differ with regard to the expansion of pioneer trees, the abundances and rates of change of temperate taxa, and the presence of frost-sensitive taxa. These differences point to different mechanisms responsible for the individual regressive phases. Assuming a correlation of the interglacial at Dethlingen with Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, our data suggest that temperate forests prevailed in northern Germany during the younger parts of MIS 11c.

High-resolution FTIRS-inferred biogeochemical properties for MIS 11c in the sediment record of core ICDP5011-1 in Lake Elgygytgyn, NE Russia

Here we present a detailed multi-proxy record of the climate and environmental evolution at Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic during the period 430-395 ka covering the marine isotope stage (MIS) 12/11 transition and the thermal maximum of super interglacial MIS 11c. The MIS 12/11 transition at Lake El'gygytgyn is characterized by initial warming followed by a cold reversal implying similarities to the last deglaciation. The thermal maximum of MIS 11c is characterized by full and remarkably stable interglacial conditions with mean temperatures of the warmest month (MTWM) ranging between ca. 10-15 °C; annual precipitation (PANN) ranging between ca. 300-600 mm; strong in-lake productivity coinciding with dark coniferous forests in the catchment; annual disintegration of the lake ice cover; and full mixis of the water column. Such conditions persisted, according to our age model, for ca. 27 ± 8 kyr between ca. 425-398 ka. The Lake El'gygytgyn record closely resembles the climate pattern recorded in Lake Baikal (SE Siberia) sediments and Antarctic ice cores, implying interhemispheric climate connectivity during MIS 11c.

(Table 1) Calculated sea surface temperature of sediment core RC11-210

Proxy indicators of sea surface temperature and equatorial divergence based on radiolarian assemblage data, and of trade wind intensity based on eolian grain size data show similar aspects of variability during the late Pleistocene: All indicators fluctuate at higher frequencies than the 100,000-year glacial-interglacial cycle, display reduced amplitude variations since 300,000 years ago, exhibit a change in the record character at about 300,000 years ago (the mid-Brunhes climatic event), and have higher amplitude variations in sediments 300,000-850,000 years old. Time series analyses were conducted to determine the spectral character of each record (delta18O of planktonic foraminifer, sea surface temperature values, equatorial divergence indicators, and wind intensity indicators) and to quantify interrecord coherence and phase relationships. The record was divided at the 300,000-year clear change in climatic variability (nonstationarity). The delta18O-based time scale is better lower in the core so our spectral analyses concentrated on the interval from 402,000-774,000 years. The delta18O spectra show 100,000- and 41,000-year power in the younger portion, 0-300,000 years, and 100,000-, 41,000- and 23,000-year power in the older interval, all highly coherent and in phase with the SPECMAP average stacked isotope record. Unlike the isotope record the dominant period in both the eolian grain size and equatorial divergence indicators is 31,000 years. This period is also important in the sea surface temperature signal where the dominant spectral peak is 100,000 years. The 31,000-year spectral component is coherent and in phase between the eolian and divergence records, confirming the link between atmospheric and ocean surface circulation for the first time in the paleoclimate record. Since the 31,000-year power appears in independent data sets within this core and also appears in other equatorial records [J. Imbrie personal communication, 1987], we assume it to be real and representative of both a nonlinear response to orbital forcing, possibly a combination of orbital tilt and eccentricity, and some resonance phenomenon required to amplify the response at this period so that it appears as a dominant frequency component. The mid-Brunhes climatic event is an important aspect of these records, but its cause remains unknown.

Regional climate gradients in precipitation and temperature in response to climate teleconnections in the Greater Everglades ecosystem of South Florida

Precipitation and temperature in Florida responds to climate teleconnections from both the Pacific and Atlantic regions. In this region south of Lake Okeechobee, encompassing NWS Climate Divisions 5, 6, and 7, modern movement of surface waters are managed by the South Florida Water Management District and the US Army Corps of Engineers for flood control, water supply, and Everglades restoration within the constraints of the climatic variability of precipitation and evaporation. Despite relatively narrow, low-relief, but multi-purposed land separating the Atlantic Ocean from the Gulf of Mexico, South Florida has patterns of precipitation and temperature that vary substantially on spatial scales of 101–102 km. Here we explore statistically significant linkages to precipitation and temperature that vary seasonally and over small spatial scales with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Over the period from 1952 to 2005, ENSO teleconnections exhibited the strongest influence on seasonal precipitation. The Multivariate ENSO Index was positively correlated with winter (dry season) precipitation and explained up to 34 % of dry season precipitation variability along the southwest Florida coast. The AMO was the most influential of these teleconnections during the summer (wet season), with significant positive correlations to South Florida precipitation. These relationships with modern climate parameters have implications for paleoclimatological and paleoecological reconstructions, and future climate predictions from the Greater Everglades system.

Análise da variabilidade climática sobre a produtividade da soja no município de Bom Jesus (PI)

The climate is still main responsible for the variations soybean productivity (Glycine max (L.) Merrill), exerting a limiting action on these agricultural systems. The bomjesuense cerrado, this culture has proved, over the years, an increase of cultivated areas, however, productivity does not keep the same pace, going through periods of oscillations. Thus, although the crop is added to high technology, culture has great vulnerability to climatic adversities. Thus, the present study aims to analyze possible trends in meteorological variables, which can influence the soybean yield in Bom Jesus. For this purpose, different datasets were used, as follows: i) two periods of daily data (1984-2014 and 1974-2014), both obtained from the National Meteorological Institute (INMET); ii) climate normals from 1961-1990 as defined by INMET; iii) local agricultural production data of soybean-year (1997/1998 to 2012/2013) obtained from the Municipal Agricultural Production (PAM) dataset, which is management by Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The analysis procedures included calculations of climate normals for 1984 to 2014 period and some statistical applications, as follows: i) the Wilcoxon test, used to evaluate differences between climate normals (1961 to 1990 and 1984 to 2014); ii) the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, in order to analyze the linear trend of agrometeorological variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and diurnal range of temperature; iii) cluster analysis by Ward method and the Spearman correlation test (rs) to identify the relationship between agrometeorological variable and soybean annual productivity. We adopted a statistical significance level of 5%. The results indicate changes in seasonality of the 1984-2014 climatology with respect to past climatology for all variables analyzed, except for insolation and precipitation. However, the monthly analysis of precipitation indicate negative trend during October and positive trend in December, causing a delay in start of rainy season. If this trend is persistent this result must be considered in futures definitions of the soybean crop sowing date over the region studied. With Mann-Kendall test was possible to identify positive trends with statistical significance in maximum temperature for all month forming part of soybean cycle (from November to April), which in turn tends to cause adverse effects on crop physiology, and consequently impacts on the final yield. Was identified a significant positive correlation between soybean yield and precipitation observed in March, thus precipitation deficit in this month is harmful to the soybean crop development. No statistically significant correlation was identified among maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and DTR with annual soybean productivity due these range of meteorological variables are not limiting factors in the final soybean yield in Bom Jesus (PI). It is expected that this study will contribute to propose planning strategies considering the role of climate variability on soybean crop final yield.

Estimation of sea surface temperatures and salinity of ODP Site 177-1089 (Appendix A)

ODP Site 1089 is optimally located in order to monitor the occurrence of maxima in Agulhas heat and salt spillage from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean. Radiolarian-based paleotemperature transfer functions allowed to reconstruct the climatic history for the last 450 kyr at this location. A warm sea surface temperature anomaly during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 10 was recognized and traced to other oceanic records along the surface branch of the global thermohaline (THC) circulation system, and is particularly marked at locations where a strong interaction between oceanic and atmospheric overturning cells and fronts occurs. This anomaly is absent in the Vostok ice core deuterium, and in oceanic records from the Antarctic Zone. However, it is present in the deuterium excess record from the Vostok ice core, interpreted as reflecting the temperature at the moisture source site for the snow precipitated at Vostok Station. As atmospheric models predict a subtropical Indian source for such moisture, this provides the necessary teleconnection between East Antarctica and ODP Site 1089, as the subtropical Indian is also the source area of the Agulhas Current, the main climate agent at our study location. The presence of the MIS 10 anomaly in the delta13C foraminiferal records from the same core supports its connection to oceanic mechanisms, linking stronger Agulhas spillover intensity to increased productivity in the study area. We suggest, in analogy to modern oceanographic observations, this to be a consequence of a shallow nutricline, induced by eddy mixing and baroclinic tide generation, which are in turn connected to the flow geometry, and intensity, of the Agulhas Current as it flows past the Agulhas Bank. We interpret the intensified inflow of Agulhas Current to the South Atlantic as responding to the switch between lower and higher amplitude in the insolation forcing in the Agulhas Current source area. This would result in higher SSTs in the Cape Basin during the glacial MIS 10, due to the release into the South Atlantic of the heat previously accumulating in the subtropical and equatorial Indian and Pacific Ocean. If our explanation for the MIS 10 anomaly in terms of an insolation variability switch is correct, we might expect that a future Agulhas SSST anomaly event will further delay the onset of next glacial age. In fact, the insolation forcing conditions for the Holocene (the current interglacial) are very similar to those present during MIS 11 (the interglacial preceding MIS 10), as both periods are characterized by a low insolation variability for the Agulhas Current source area. Natural climatic variability will force the Earth system in the same direction as the anthropogenic global warming trend, and will thus lead to even warmer than expected global temperatures in the near future.

Table 1. Tree growth index and reconstructed precipitation series from 515 BC to AD 1993 based on the archaeological and living tree ring datasets from Dulan and Shenge, China

Annual precipitation for the last 2,500 years was reconstructed for northeastern Qinghai from living and archaeological juniper trees. A dominant feature of the precipitation of this area is a high degree of variability in mean rainfall at annual, decadal, and centennial scales, with many wet and dry periods that are corroborated by other paleoclimatic indicators. Reconstructed values of annual precipitation vary mostly from 100 to 300 mm and thus are no different from the modern instrumental record in Dulan. However, relatively dry years with below-average precipitation occurred more frequently in the past than in the present. Periods of relatively dry years occurred during 74-25 BC, AD 51-375, 426-500, 526-575, 626-700, 1100-1225, 1251-1325, 1451-1525, 1651-1750 and 1801-1825. Periods with a relatively wet climate occurred during AD 376-425, 576-625, 951-1050, 1351-1375, 1551-1600 and the present. This variability is probably related to latitudinal positions of winter frontal storms. Another key feature of precipitation in this area is an apparently direct relationship between interannual variability in rainfall with temperature, whereby increased warming in the future might lead to increased flooding and droughts. Such increased climatic variability might then impact human societies of the area, much as the climate has done for the past 2,500 years.

Long-term biogenic particle fluxes in the Bering Sea and the central subarctic Pacific Ocean

Time-series sediment traps were deployed for five consecutive years in two distinctively different subarctic marine environments. The centrally located subarctic pelagic Station SA (49°N, 174°W; water depth 5406 m) was simultaneously studied along with the marginal sea Station AB (53.5°N, 177°W; water depth 3788 m) in the Aleutian Basin of the Bering Sea. A mooring system was tethered to the sea-floor with a PARFLUX type trap with 13 sample bottles, which was placed at 600 m above the sea-floor at each of the two stations. Sampling intervals were synchronized at the stations, and they were generally set for 20 days during highly productive seasons, spring through fall, and 56 days during winter months of low productivity. Total mass fluxes, which consisted of mainly biogenic phases, were significantly greater at the marginal sea Station AB than at the pelagic Station SA for the first four years and moderately greater for the last year of the observations. This reflects the generally recognized higher productivity in the Bering Sea. Temporal excursion patterns of the mass fluxes at the two stations generally were in parallel, implying that temporal changes in their biological productivity are strongly governed by a large-scale seasonal climatic variability over the region rather than local phenomena. The primary reason for the difference in total mass flux at the two stations stems mainly from varying contributions of siliceous and calcareous planktonic assemblages. A significantly higher opal contribution at Station AB than at Station SA was mainly due to diatoms. Diatom fluxes at the marginal sea station were about twice those observed at the pelagic station, resulting in a very high opal contribution at Station AB. In contrast to the opal fluxes, CaCO3 fluxes at Station AB were slightly lower than at Station SA. The ratios of Corg/Cinorg were usually significantly greater than one in both regions, suggesting that preferentially greater organic carbon from cytoplasm than skeletal inorganic carbon was exported from the surface layers. Such a process, known as the biological pump, leads to a carbon sink which effectively lowers p CO2 in the surface layers and then allows a net flux of atmospheric CO2 into the surface layer. The efficiency of the biological pump is greater in the Bering Sea than at the open-ocean station.

Sea surface temperature reconstruction for sediment core M35003-4 in the western tropical North Atlantic

Planktonic foraminiferal census counts are used to construct high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) and subsurface (thermocline) temperature records at a core site in the Tobago Basin, Lesser Antilles. The record is used to document climatic variability at this tropical site in comparison to middle- and high-latitude sites and to test current concepts of cross-equatorial heat transports as a major player in interhemispheric climate variability. Temperatures are estimated using transfer function and modern analog techniques. Glacial - maximum cooling of 2.5°-3°C is indicated; maximum cooling by 4°C is inferred for isotope stage 3. The SST record displays millennial-scale variability with temperature jumps of up to 3°C and closely tracks the structure of ice-core Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles. SST variations in part of the record run opposite to the SST evolution at high northern latitude sites, pointing to thermohaline circulation and marine heat transport as an important factor driving SST in the tropical and high-latitude Atlantic, both on orbital and suborbital timescales.

(Fig. 4) Multiproxy data set of box core MSM5/5-712-1

A multiproxy data set of an AMS radiocarbon dated 46 cm long sediment core from the continental margin off western Svalbard reveals multidecadal climatic variability during the past two millennia. Investigation of planktic and benthic stable isotopes, planktic foraminiferal fauna, and lithogenic parameters aims to unveil the Atlantic Water advection to the eastern Fram Strait by intensity, temperatures, and salinities. Atlantic Water has been continuously present at the site over the last 2,000 years. Superimposed on the increase in sea ice/icebergs, a strengthened intensity of Atlantic Water inflow and seasonal ice-free conditions were detected at ~ 1000 to 1200 AD, during the well-known Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). However, temperatures of the MCA never exceeded those of the 20th century. Since ~ 1400 AD significantly higher portions of ice rafted debris and high planktic foraminifer fluxes suggest that the site was located in the region of a seasonal highly fluctuating sea ice margin. A sharp reduction in planktic foraminifer fluxes around 800 AD and after 1730 AD indicates cool summer conditions with major influence of sea ice/icebergs. High amounts of the subpolar planktic foraminifer species Turborotalia quinqueloba in size fraction 150-250 µm indicate strengthened Atlantic Water inflow to the eastern Fram Strait already after ~ 1860 AD. Nevertheless surface conditions stayed cold well into the 20th century indicated by low planktic foraminiferal fluxes. Most likely at the beginning of the 20th century, cold conditions of the terminating Little Ice Age period persisted at the surface whereas warm and saline Atlantic Water already strengthened, hereby subsiding below the cold upper mixed layer. Surface sediments with high abundances of subpolar planktic foraminifers indicate a strong inflow of Atlantic Water providing seasonal ice-free conditions in the eastern Fram Strait during the last few decades.

(Fig. 11c) Alkenones (di and tri alkenones of 37 carbons) from sediment core MD95-2043

The present paper is a synopsis of the research on the climatic evolution of the Western Mediterranean Sea developed within the MATER programme. The sea surface temperature (SST) evolution during the last glacial period, deglaciation and present interglacial have been examined in detail. Special attention has been focussed to millennial-centennial scale changes related to rapid global climatic oscillations. The results have shown the extreme sensitivity of the Western Mediterranean oceanography to this rapid climatic variability giving rise to amplified climatic signals, e.g. strong SST oscillation, that follow the changes recorded in the North Atlantic Ocean or in Greenland ice. Overall, the Western Mediterranean Sea appears to be an ideal environment for the study of the climatic processes occurring at high and intermediate latitudes.

Stable carbon and oxygen isotope record of foraminifera from DSDP Hole 30-289

Sediments accumulate on the sea floor far from land with rates of a few millimetres to a few centimetres per thousand years. Sediments have been accumulating under broadly similar conditions, subject to similar controls, for the past 10 8 years and more. In principle we should be able to study the distribution of climatic variance with frequencies over the range 10**-3 to 10**-7 cycles per year with comparative ease. In fact, nearly all our data are heavily weighted towards the youngest part of the geological record. We study frequencies higher than 10**-4 cycles per year in the special case of a Pleistocene interglacial (the present one), and frequencies in the range 10**-4 to 10**-5 cycles per year in the special case of an ice-age. Although these may be of more direct interest to mankind than earlier periods, it may well be that we will understand the causes of climatic variability better if we can examine their operation over a longer time scale and under different boundary conditions. Rather than review the available data, I have collected some new data to show the feasibility of gathering a data base for examining climatic variability without this usual bias toward the recent. The most widely applicable tool for extracting climatic information from deep-sea sediments is oxygen isotope analysis of calcium carbonate microfossils. It is generally possible to select from the sediment both specimens of benthonic Foraminifera (that is, those that lived in ocean deep water at the sediment-water interface) and specimens of planktonic Foraminifera (that is, those that lived and formed their shells near the ocean surface, and fell to the sediment after death). Thus one is able to monitor conditions at the surface and at depth at simultaneous moments in the geological past. The necessity to analyse calcareous microfossils restricts investigation to calcareous sediments, but even with this restriction in sediment type there are many factors governing the rate of sediment accumulation. On a global scale, sediment accumulates so as to balance the input to the oceans from continental erosion. Even when averaged globally, long-term accumulation rates have varied by almost a factor of ten (Davies et al., 1977, doi:10.1126/science.197.4298.53). At the regional scale, surface productivity and deep-water physical and chemical conditions also affect the sediment accumulation rate. Since all these are susceptible to variation and may well vary in response to climatic change as well as other factors, it is extremely hazardous to attempt to express any climatic variable as a function of time on the basis of measurements originally made as a function of depth in sediment. Although time has been used as a basis for plotting Figs. i-8, these should be regarded as freehand sketches of climatic history rather than as time-series plots.