Changes in biodiversity and vegetation composition in the central Swiss Alps during the transition from pristine forest to first farming

Aim: We investigate the response of vegetation composition and plant diversity to increasing land clearance, burning and agriculture at the Mesolithic–Neolithic transition (c. 6400–5000 bc) when first farming was introduced. Location: The Valais, a dry alpine valley in Switzerland. Methods: We combine high-resolution pollen, microscopic charcoal and sedimentological data to reconstruct past vegetation, fire and land use. Pollen evenness, rarefaction-based and accumulation-based palynological richness analyses were used to reconstruct past trends in plant diversity. Results: Our results show that from c. 5500 cal. yr bc, slash-and-burn activities created a more open landscape for agriculture, at the expense of Pinus and Betula forests. Land clearance by slash-and-burn promoted diverse grassland ecosystems, while on the long term it reduced woodland and forest diversity, affecting important tree species such as Ulmus and Tilia. Main conclusions: Understanding the resilience of Alpine ecosystems to past disturbance variability is relevant for future nature conservation plans. Our study suggests that forecasted land abandonment in the Alps will lead to pre-Neolithic conditions, with significant biodiversity losses in abandoned grassland ecosystems. Thus, management measures for biodiversity, such as ecological compensation areas, are needed in agricultural landscapes with a millennial history of human impact, such as the non-boreal European lowlands. Our study supports the hypothesis that species coexistence is maximized at an intermediate level of disturbances. For instance, species richness decreased when fire exceeded the quasi-natural variability observed during the Mesolithic times. Under a more natural disturbance regime, rather closed Pinus sylvestris and mixed oak forests would prevail.

North-south palaeohydrological contrasts in the central Mediterranean during the Holocene: tentative synthesis and working hypotheses

On the basis of a multi-proxy approach and a strategy combining lacustrine and marine records along a north–south transect, data collected in the central Mediterranean within the framework of a collaborative project have led to reconstruction of high-resolution and well-dated palaeohydrological records and to assessment of their spatial and temporal coherency. Contrasting patterns of palaeohydrological changes have been evidenced in the central Mediterranean: south (north) of around 40° N of latitude, the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by lake-level maxima (minima), during an interval dated to ca. 10 300–4500 cal BP to the south and 9000–4500 cal BP to the north. Available data suggest that these contrasting palaeohydrological patterns operated throughout the Holocene, both on millennial and centennial scales. Regarding precipitation seasonality, maximum humidity in the central Mediterranean during the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by humid winters and dry summers north of ca. 40° N, and humid winters and summers south of ca. 40° N. This may explain an apparent conflict between palaeoclimatic records depending on the proxies used for reconstruction as well as the synchronous expansion of tree species taxa with contrasting climatic requirements. In addition, south of ca. 40° N, the first millennium of the Holocene was characterised by very dry climatic conditions not only in the eastern, but also in the central- and the western Mediterranean zones as reflected by low lake levels and delayed reforestation. These results suggest that, in addition to the influence of the Nile discharge reinforced by the African monsoon, the deposition of Sapropel 1 has been favoured (1) by an increase in winter precipitation in the northern Mediterranean borderlands, and (2) by an increase in winter and summer precipitation in the southern Mediterranean area. The climate reversal following the Holocene climate optimum appears to have been punctuated by two major climate changes around 7500 and 4500 cal BP. In the central Mediterranean, the Holocene palaeohydrological changes developed in response to a combination of orbital, ice-sheet and solar forcing factors. The maximum humidity interval in the south-central Mediterranean started ca. 10 300 cal BP, in correlation with the decline (1) of the possible blocking effects of the North Atlantic anticyclone linked to maximum insolation, and/or (2) of the influence of the remnant ice sheets and fresh water forcing in the North Atlantic Ocean. In the north-central Mediterranean, the lake-level minimum interval began only around 9000 cal BP when the Fennoscandian ice sheet disappeared and a prevailing positive NAO-(North Atlantic Oscillation) type circulation developed in the North Atlantic area. The major palaeohydrological oscillation around 4500–4000 cal BP may be a non-linear response to the gradual decrease in insolation, with additional key seasonal and interhemispheric changes. On a centennial scale, the successive climatic events which punctuated the entire Holocene in the central Mediterranean coincided with cooling events associated with deglacial outbursts in the North Atlantic area and decreases in solar activity during the interval 11 700–7000 cal BP, and to a possible combination of NAO-type circulation and solar forcing since ca. 7000 cal BP onwards. Thus, regarding the centennial-scale climatic oscillations, the Mediterranean Basin appears to have been strongly linked to the North Atlantic area and affected by solar activity over the entire Holocene. In addition to model experiments, a better understanding of forcing factors and past atmospheric circulation patterns behind the Holocene palaeohydrological changes in the Mediterranean area will require further investigation to establish additional high-resolution and well-dated records in selected locations around the Mediterranean Basin and in adjacent regions. Special attention should be paid to greater precision in the reconstruction, on millennial and centennial timescales, of changes in the latitudinal location of the limit between the northern and southern palaeohydrological Mediterranean sectors, depending on (1) the intensity and/or characteristics of climatic periods/oscillations (e.g. Holocene thermal maximum versus Neoglacial, as well as, for instance, the 8.2 ka event versus the 4 ka event or the Little Ice Age); and (2) on varying geographical conditions from the western to the eastern Mediterranean areas (longitudinal gradients). Finally, on the basis of projects using strategically located study sites, there is a need to explore possible influences of other general atmospheric circulation patterns than NAO, such as the East Atlantic–West Russian or North Sea–Caspian patterns, in explaining the apparent complexity of palaeoclimatic (palaeohydrological) Holocene records from the Mediterranean area.

Determining the long-term changes in biodiversity and provisioning services along a transect from Central Europe to the Mediterranean

Climate, land use and fire are strong determinants of plant diversity, potentially resulting in local extinctions, including rare endemic and economically valuable species. While climate and land use are decisive for vegetation composition and thus the species pool, fire disturbance can lead to landscape fragmentation, affecting the provisioning of important ecosystem services such as timber and raw natural resources. We use multi-proxy palaeoecological data with high taxonomic and temporal resolution across an environmental gradient to assess the long-term impact of major climate shifts, land use and fire disturbance on past vegetation openness and plant diversity (evenness and richness). Evenness of taxa is inferred by calculating the probability of interspecific encounter (PIE) of pollen and spores and species richness by palynological richness (PRI). To account for evenness distortions of PRI, we developed a new palaeodiversity measure, which is evenness-detrended palynological richness (DE-PRI). Reconstructed species richness increases from north to south regardless of time, mirroring the biodiversity increase across the gradient from temperate deciduous to subtropical evergreen vegetation. Climatic changes after the end of the last ice age contributed to biodiversity dynamics, usually by promoting species richness and evenness in response to warming. The data reveal that the promotion of diverse open-land ecosystems increased when human disturbance became determinant, while forests became less diverse. Our results imply that the today’s biodiversity has been shaped by anthropogenic forcing over the millennia. Future management strategies aiming at a successful conservation of biodiversity should therefore consider the millennia-lasting role of anthropogenic fire and human activities.

Small aliquot and single grain IRSL and post-IR IRSL dating of fluvial and alluvial sediments from the Pativilca valley, Peru

Infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) and post-IR IRSL are applied to small aliquots and single grains to determine the equivalent dose (De) of eleven alluvial and fluvial sediment samples collected in the Pativilca valley, Central Peru at ca. 10°S latitude. Small aliquot De distributions are rather symmetric and display over-dispersion values between 15 and 46%. Small aliquot g-values range between 4 and 8% per decade for the IRSL and 1 and 2% per decade for the post-IR IRSL signal. The single grain De distributions are highly over-dispersed with some of them skewed to higher doses, implying partial bleaching; this is especially true for the post-IR IRSL. Measurements of a modern analog reveal that residuals due to partial bleaching are present in both the IRSL as well as the post-IR IRSL signal. The g-values of individual grains exhibit a wide range with high individual uncertainties and might contribute significantly to the spread of the single grain De values, at least for the IRSL data. Electron Microprobe Analysis performed on single grains reveal that a varying K-content can be excluded as the origin of over-dispersion. Final ages for the different approaches are calculated using the Central Age Model and the Minimum Age Model (MAM). The samples are grouped into well-beached, potentially well-bleached and partially bleached according to the evaluation of the single grain distributions and the agreement of age estimates between methods. The application of the MAM to the single grain data resulted in consistent age estimates for both the fading corrected IRSL and the post-IR IRSL ages, and suggests that both approaches are suitable for dating these samples. Keywords

Identification of erosional mechanisms during past glaciations based on a bedrock surface model of the central European Alps

The bedrock topography beneath the Quaternary cover provides an important archive for the identification of erosional processes during past glaciations. Here, we combined stratigraphic investigations of more than 40,000 boreholes with published data to generate a bedrock topography model for the entire plateau north of the Swiss Alps including the valleys within the mountain belt. We compared the bedrock map with data about the pattern of the erosional resistance of Alpine rocks to identify the controls of the lithologic architecture on the location of overdeepenings. We additionally used the bedrock topography map as a basis to calculate the erosional potential of the Alpine glaciers, which was related to the thickness of the LGM ice. We used these calculations to interpret how glaciers, with support by subglacial meltwater under pressure, might have shaped the bedrock topography of the Alps. We found that the erosional resistance of the bedrock lithology mainly explains where overdeepenings in the Alpine valleys and the plateau occur. In particular, in the Alpine valleys, the locations of overdeepenings largely overlap with areas where the underlying bedrock has a low erosional resistance, or where it was shattered by faults. We also found that the assignment of two end-member scenarios of erosion, related to glacial abrasion/plucking in the Alpine valleys, and dissection by subglacial meltwater in the plateau, may be adequate to explain the pattern of overdeepenings in the Alpine realm. This most likely points to the topographic controls on glacial scouring. In the Alps, the flow of LGM and previous glaciers were constrained by valley flanks, while ice flow was mostly divergent on the plateau where valley borders are absent. We suggest that these differences in landscape conditioning might have contributed to the contrasts in the formation of overdeepenings in the Alpine valleys and the plateau.

Declining pine growth in Central Spain coincides with increasing diurnal temperature range since the 1970s

Growing evidence suggests environmental change to be most severe across the semi-arid subtropics, with past, present and projected drying of the Mediterranean Basin posing a key multidisciplinary challenge. Consideration of a single climatic factor, however, often fails to explain spatiotemporal growth dynamics of drought-prone ecosystems. Here, we present annually resolved and absolutely dated ring width measurements of 871 Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris) from 18 individual plot sites in the Central Spanish Pinar Grande forest reserve. Although comprising tree ages from 6 to 175 years, this network correlates surprisingly well with the inverse May–July diurnal temperature range (r = 0.84; p < 0.00011956–2011). Ring width extremes were triggered by pressure anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the long-term growth decline coincided with Iberian-wide drying since the mid-1970s. Climate model simulations not only confirm this negative trend over the last decades but also project drought to continuously increase over the 21st century. Associated ecological effects and socio-economic consequences should be considered to improve adaptation strategies of agricultural and forest management, as well as biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service.

Modelling the effects of land use and climate changes on hydrology in the Ursern Valley, Switzerland

While many studies have been conducted in mountainous catchments to examine the impact of climate change on hydrology, the interactions between climate changes and land use components have largely unknown impacts on hydrology in alpine regions. They need to be given special attention in order to devise possible strategies concerning general development in these regions. Thus, the main aim was to examine the impact of land use (i.e. bushland expansion) and climate changes (i.e. increase of temperature) on hydrology by model simulations. For this purpose, the physically based WaSiM-ETH model was applied to the catchment of Ursern Valley in the central Alps (191 km2) over the period of 1983−2005. Modelling results showed that the reduction of the mean monthly discharge during the summer period is due primarily to the retreat of snow discharge in time and secondarily to the reduction in the glacier surface area together with its retreat in time, rather than the increase in the evapotranspiration due to the expansion of the “green alder” on the expense of grassland. The significant decrease in summer discharge during July, August and September shows a change in the regime from b-glacio-nival to nivo-glacial. These changes are confirmed by the modeling results that attest to a temporal shift in snowmelt and glacier discharge towards earlier in the year: March, April and May for snowmelt and May and June for glacier discharge. It is expected that the yearly total discharge due to the land use changes will be reduced by 0.6% in the near future, whereas, it will be reduced by about 5% if climate change is also taken into account. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Thermal and Barometric Constraints on the Intrusive and Unroofing History of the Black Mountains: Implications for Timing, Initial Dip, and Kinematics of Detachment Faulting in the Death-Valley Region, California

Unroofing of the Black Mountains, Death Valley, California, has resulted in the exposure of 1.7 Ga crystalline basement, late Precambrian amphibolite facies metasedimentary rocks, and a Tertiary magmatic complex. The Ar-40/Ar-39 cooling ages, obtained from samples collected across the entire length of the range (>55 km), combined with geobarometric results from synextensional intrusions, provide time-depth constraints on the Miocene intrusive history and extensional unroofing of the Black Mountains. Data from the southeastern Black Mountains and adjacent Greenwater Range suggest unroofing from shallow depths between 9 and 10 Ma. To the northwest in the crystalline core of the range, biotite plateau ages from approximately 13 to 6.8 Ma from rocks making up the Death Valley turtlebacks indicate a midcrustal residence (with temperatures >300-degrees-C) prior to extensional unroofing. Biotite Ar-40/Ar-39 ages from both Precambrian basement and Tertiary plutons reveal a diachronous cooling pattern of decreasing ages toward the northwest, subparallel to the regional extension direction. Diachronous cooling was accompanied by dike intrusion which also decreases in age toward the northwest. The cooling age pattern and geobarometric constraints in crystalline rocks of the Black Mountains suggest denudation of 10-15 km along a northwest directed detachment system, consistent with regional reconstructions of Tertiary extension and with unroofing of a northwest deepening crustal section. Mica cooling ages that deviate from the northwest younging trend are consistent with northwestward transport of rocks initially at shallower crustal levels onto deeper levels along splays of the detachment. The well-known Amargosa chaos and perhaps the Badwater turtleback are examples of this "splaying" process. Considering the current distance of the structurally deepest samples away from moderately to steeply east tilted Tertiary strata in the southeastern Black Mountains, these data indicate an average initial dip of the detachment system of the order of 20-degrees, similar to that determined for detachment faults in west central Arizona and southeastern California. Beginning with an initially listric geometry, a pattern of footwall unroofing accompanied by dike intrusion progress northwestward. This pattern may be explained by a model where migration of footwall flexures occur below a scoop-shaped banging wall block. One consequence of this model is that gently dipping ductile fabrics developed in the middle crust steepen in the upper crust during unloading. This process resolves the low initial dips obtained here with mapping which suggests transport of the upper plate on moderately to steeply dipping surfaces in the middle and upper crust.

Pliocene Paleoenvironment and Antarctic Ice Sheet Behavior: Evidence from Wright Valley

Investigations in Wright Valley, adjacent to the Transantarctic Mountains in East Antarctica, shed light on the question of whether high-latitude Pliocene climate was warm enough to cause widespread deglaciation of the East Antarctic craton with a concurrent Magellanic moorland-like environment. If Pliocene age diatoms, presently in glaciogenic deposits high in the Transantarctic Mountains, had come from seaways on the East Antarctic craton, an expanding Late Pliocene ice sheet must have first eroded them from marine sediments and then deposited the diatoms at their present high-altitude locations. This hypothetical expanding glacier would have had to have come through Wright Valley. Glacial drift sediments from the central Wright Valley were mapped, sampled, analyzed, and Ar-40/Ar-39 whole rock dated. Our evidence indicates that an East Antarctic outlet glacier has not expanded through Wright Valley, and hence cannot have overridden the Dry Valleys sector of the Transantarctic Mountains, any time in the past 3.8 myr. Rather, there was only moderate Pliocene expansion of local cola-based alpine glaciers and continuous cold-desert conditions in Wright Valley. Persistence of a cold-desert paleoenvironment implies that the sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet adjacent to Wright Valley has remained relatively stable without melting ablation zones since at least 3.8 Ma, in Early Pliocene time. A further implication is that Antarctic Ice Sheet behavior in the Pliocene was much like that in the Quaternary, when the ice sheet consisted of a stable, terrestrial core in East Antarctica and a dynamic, marine-based appendage in West Antarctica.

Optimizing Triage and Hospitalization in Adult General Medical Emergency Patients. The Triage Project

Background: Patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) currently face inacceptable delays in initial treatment, and long, costly hospital stays due to suboptimal initial triage and site-of-care decisions. Accurate ED triage should focus not only on initial treatment priority, but also on prediction of medical risk and nursing needs to improve site-of-care decisions and to simplify early discharge management. Different triage scores have been proposed, such as the Manchester triage system (MTS). Yet, these scores focus only on treatment priority, have suboptimal performance and lack validation in the Swiss health care system. Because the MTS will be introduced into clinical routine at the Kantonsspital Aarau, we propose a large prospective cohort study to optimize initial patient triage. Specifically, the aim of this trial is to derive a three-part triage algorithm to better predict (a) treatment priority; (b) medical risk and thus need for in-hospital treatment; (c) post-acute care needs of patients at the most proximal time point of ED admission. Methods/design: Prospective, observational, multicenter, multi-national cohort study. We will include all consecutive medical patients seeking ED care into this observational registry. There will be no exclusions except for non-adult and non-medical patients. Vital signs will be recorded and left over blood samples will be stored for later batch analysis of blood markers. Upon ED admission, the post-acute care discharge score (PACD) will be recorded. Attending ED physicians will adjudicate triage priority based on all available results at the time of ED discharge to the medical ward. Patients will be reassessed daily during the hospital course for medical stability and readiness for discharge from the nurses and if involved social workers perspective. To assess outcomes, data from electronic medical records will be used and all patients will be contacted 30 days after hospital admission to assess vital and functional status, re-hospitalization, satisfaction with care and quality of life measures. We aim to include between 5000 and 7000 patients over one year of recruitment to derive the three-part triage algorithm. The respective main endpoints were defined as (a) initial triage priority (high vs. low priority) adjudicated by the attending ED physician at ED discharge, (b) adverse 30 day outcome (death or intensive care unit admission) within 30 days following ED admission to assess patients risk and thus need for in-hospital treatment and (c) post acute care needs after hospital discharge, defined as transfer of patients to a post-acute care institution, for early recognition and planning of post-acute care needs. Other outcomes are time to first physician contact, time to initiation of adequate medical therapy, time to social worker involvement, length of hospital stay, reasons fordischarge delays, patient’s satisfaction with care, overall hospital costs and patients care needs after returning home. Discussion: Using a reliable initial triage system for estimating initial treatment priority, need for in-hospital treatment and post-acute care needs is an innovative and persuasive approach for a more targeted and efficient management of medical patients in the ED. The proposed interdisciplinary , multi-national project has unprecedented potential to improve initial triage decisions and optimize resource allocation to the sickest patients from admission to discharge. The algorithms derived in this study will be compared in a later randomized controlled trial against a usual care control group in terms of resource use, length of hospital stay, overall costs and patient’s outcomes in terms of mortality, re-hospitalization, quality of life and satisfaction with care.

Contrasts, Contacts, and Interconnections — Tel Kinrot as an Early Iron Age Key Site in the Northern Jordan Rift Valley at the Dawn of the 1st Millennium BCE

Ancient Kinneret (Tēl Kinrōt [Hebrew]; Tell el-ʿOrēme [Arabic]) is located on a steep limestone hill on the northwestern shores of the Sea of Galilee (2508.7529 [NIG]). The site, whose settlement history began sometime during the Pottery-Neolithic or the early Chalcolithic period, is emerging as one of the major sites for the study of urban life in the Southern Levant during the Early Iron Age (c. 1130–950 BCE). Its size, accessibility by major trade routes, and strategic location between different spheres of cultural and political influence make Tēl Kinrōt an ideal place for studying the interaction of various cultures on urban sites, as well as to approach questions of ethnicity and regionalism during one of the most debated periods in the history of the ancient Levant. The paper will briefly discuss the settlement history of the site during the Early Iron Age. However, the main focus will lie on the material culture of the late Iron Age IB city that rapidly evolved to a regional center during the transition from the 11th to the 10th century BCE. During this period, ancient Kinneret features a multitude of cultural influences that reach from Egypt via the Central Hill Country until the Northern parts of Syria and the Amuq region. While there are indisputably close ties with the ‘Aramaean’ realm, there are also strong indications that there were – at the same time – vivid socio-economic links with the West, i.e. the Southern and Northern Mediterranean coasts and their hinterland. It will be argued that the resulting ‘cultural blend’ is a typical characteristic of the material culture of the Northern Jordan Rift Valley in the advent of the emerging regional powers of the Iron Age II.

IMRT credentialing for prospective trials using institutional virtual phantoms: results of a joint European Organization for the Research and Treatment of Cancer and Radiological Physics Center project.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) credentialing for a EORTC study was performed using an anthropomorphic head phantom from the Radiological Physics Center (RPC; RPC(PH)). Institutions were retrospectively requested to irradiate their institutional phantom (INST(PH)) using the same treatment plan in the framework of a Virtual Phantom Project (VPP) for IMRT credentialing. MATERIALS AND METHODS CT data set of the institutional phantom and measured 2D dose matrices were requested from centers and sent to a dedicated secure EORTC uploader. Data from the RPC(PH) and INST(PH) were thereafter centrally analyzed and inter-compared by the QA team using commercially available software (RIT; ver.5.2; Colorado Springs, USA). RESULTS Eighteen institutions participated to the VPP. The measurements of 6 (33%) institutions could not be analyzed centrally. All other centers passed both the VPP and the RPC ±7%/4 mm credentialing criteria. At the 5%/5 mm gamma criteria (90% of pixels passing), 11(92%) as compared to 12 (100%) centers pass the credentialing process with RPC(PH) and INST(PH) (p = 0.29), respectively. The corresponding pass rate for the 3%/3 mm gamma criteria (90% of pixels passing) was 2 (17%) and 9 (75%; p = 0.01), respectively. CONCLUSIONS IMRT dosimetry gamma evaluations in a single plane for a H&N prospective trial using the INST(PH) measurements showed agreement at the gamma index criteria of ±5%/5 mm (90% of pixels passing) for a small number of VPP measurements. Using more stringent, criteria, the RPC(PH) and INST(PH) comparison showed disagreement. More data is warranted and urgently required within the framework of prospective studies.