Perinatal mortality and maternal health in rural China

Background and context Since the economic reforms of 1978, China has been acclaimed as a remarkable economy, achieving 9% annual growth per head for more than 25 years. However, China's health sector has not fared well. The population health gains slowed down and health disparities increased. In the field of health and health care, significant progress in maternal care has been achieved. However, there still remain important disparities between the urban and rural areas and among the rural areas in terms of economic development. The excess female infant deaths and the rapidly increasing sex ratio at birth in the last decade aroused serious concerns among policy makers and scholars. Decentralization of the government administration and health sector reform impacts maternal care. Many studies using census data have been conducted to explore the determinants of a high sex ratio at birth, but no agreement has been so far reached on the possible contributing factors. No study using family planning system data has been conducted to explore perinatal mortality and sex ratio at birth and only few studies have examined the impact of the decentralization of government and health sector reforms on the provision and organization of maternal care in rural China. Objectives The general objective of this study was to investigate the state of perinatal health and maternal care and their determinants in rural China under the historic context of major socioeconomic reforms and the one child family planning policy. The specific objectives of the study included: 1) to study pregnancy outcomes and perinatal health and their correlates in a rural Chinese county; 2) to examine the issue of sex ratio at birth and its determinants in a rural Chinese county; 3) to explore the patterns of provision, utilization, and content of maternal care in a rural Chinese county; 4) to investigate the changes in the use of maternal care in China from 1991 to 2003. Materials and Methods This study is based on a project for evaluating the prenatal care programme in Dingyuan county in 1999-2003, Anhui province, China and a nationwide household health survey to describe the changes in maternal care utilization. The approaches used included a retrospective cohort study, cross sectional interview surveys, informant interviews, observations and the use of statistical data. The data sources included the following: 1) A cohort of pregnant women followed from pregnancy up to 7 days after birth in 20 townships in the study county, collecting information on pregnancy outcomes using family planning records; 2) A questionnaire interview survey given to women who gave birth between 2001 and 2003; 3) Various statistical and informant surveys data collected from the study county; 4) Three national household health interview survey data sets (1993-2003) were utilized, and reanalyzed to described the changes in maternity care utilization. Relative risks (RR) and their confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for comparison between parity, approval status, infant sex and township groups. The chi-square test was used to analyse the disparity of use of maternal care between and within urban and rural areas and its trend across the years in China. Logistic regression was used to analyse the factors associated with hospital delivery in rural areas. Results There were 3697 pregnancies in the study cohort, resulting in 3092 live births in a total population of 299463 in the 20 study townships during 1999-2000. The average age at pregnancy in the cohort was 25.9 years. Of the women, 61% were childless, 38% already had one child and 0.3% had two children before the current pregnancy. About 90% of approved pregnancies ended in a live birth while 73% of the unapproved ones were aborted. The perinatal mortality rate was 69 per thousand births. If the 30 induced abortions in which the gestational age was more than 28 weeks had been counted as perinatal deaths, the perinatal mortality rate would have been as high as 78 per thousand. The perinatal mortality rate was negatively associated with the wealth of the township. Approximately two thirds of the perinatal deaths occurred in the early neonatal period. Both the still birth rate and the early neonatal death rate increased with parity. The risk of a stillbirth in a second pregnancy was almost four times that for a first pregnancy, while the risk of early neonatal deaths doubled. The early neonatal mortality rate was twice as high for female as for male infants. The sex difference in the early neonatal mortality rate was mainly attributable to mortality in second births. The male early neonatal mortality rate was not affected by parity, while the female early neonatal mortality rate increased dramatically with parity: it was about six times higher for second births than for first births. About 82% early neonatal deaths happened within 24 hours after birth, and during that time, girls were almost three times more likely to die than boys. The death rate of females on the day of birth increased much more sharply with parity than that of males. The total sex ratio at birth of 3697 registered pregnancies was 152 males to 100 females, with 118 and 287 in first and second pregnancies, respectively. Among unapproved pregnancies, there were almost 5 live-born boys for each girl. Most prenatal and delivery care was to be taken care of in township hospitals. At the village level, there were small private clinics. There was no limitation period for the provision of prenatal and postnatal care by private practitioners. They were not permitted to provide delivery care by the county health bureau, but as some 12% of all births occurred either at home or at private clinics; some village health workers might have been involved. The county level hospitals served as the referral centers for the township hospitals in the county. However, there was no formal regulation or guideline on how the referral system should work. Whether or not a woman was referred to a higher level hospital depended on the individual midwife's professional judgment and on the clients' compliance. The county health bureau had little power over township hospitals, because township hospitals had in the decentralization process become directly accountable to the township government. In the township and county hospitals only 10-20% of the recurrent costs were funded by local government (the township hospital was funded by the township government and the county hospital was funded by the county government) and the hospitals collected user fees to balance their budgets. Also the staff salaries depended on fee incomes by the hospital. The hospitals could define the user charges themselves. Prenatal care consultations were however free in most township hospitals. None of the midwives made postnatal home visits, because of low profit of these services. The three national household health survey data showed that the proportion of women receiving their first prenatal visit within 12 weeks increased greatly from the early to middle 1990s in all areas except for large cities. The increase was much larger in the rural areas, reducing the urban-rural difference from more than 4 times to about 1.4 times. The proportion of women that received antenatal care visits meeting the Ministry of Health s standard (at least 5 times) in the rural areas increased sharply from 12% in 1991-1993 to 36% in 2001-2003. In rural areas, the proportion increase was much faster in less developed areas than in developed areas. The hospital delivery rate increased slightly from 90% to 94% in urban areas while the proportion increased from 27% to 69% in rural areas. The fastest change was found to be in type 4 rural areas, where the utilization even quadrupled. The overall difference between rural and urban areas was substantially narrowed over the period. Multiple logistic regression analysis shows that time periods, residency in rural or urban areas, income levels, age group, education levels, delivery history, occupation, health insurance and distance from the nearest health care facilities were significantly associated with hospital delivery rates. Conclusions 1. Perinatal mortality in this study was much higher than that for urban areas as well as any reported rate from specific studies in rural areas of China. Previous studies in which calculations of infant mortality were not based on epidemiological surveys have been shown to underestimate the rates by more than 50%. 2. Routine statistics collected by the Chinese family planning system proved to be a reliable data source for studying perinatal health, including still births, neonatal deaths, sex ratio at birth and among newborns. National Household Health Survey data proved to be a useful and reliable data source for studying population health and health services. Prior to this research there were few studies in these areas available to international audiences. 3.Though perinatal mortality rate was negatively associated with the level of township economic development, the excess female early neonatal mortality rate contributed much more to high perinatal mortality rate than economic factors. This was likely a result of the role of the family planning policy and the traditional preferences for sons, which leads to lethal neglect of female newborns and high perinatal mortality. 4. The selective abortions of female foetuses were likely to contribute most to the high sex ratio at birth. The underreporting of female births seemed to have played a secondary role. The higher early neonatal mortality rate in second-born as compared to first-born children, particularly in females, may indicate that neglect or poorer care of female newborn infants also contributes to the high sex ratio at birth or among newborns. Existing family planning policy proved not to effectively control the steadily increased birth sex ratio. 5. The rural-urban gap in service utilization was on average significantly narrowed in terms of maternal healthcare in China from 1991 to 2003. This demonstrates that significant achievements in reducing inequities can be made through a combination of socio-economic development and targeted investments in improving health services, including infrastructure, staff capacities, and subsidies to reduce the costs of service utilization for the poorest. However, the huge gap which persisted among cities of different size and within different types of rural areas indicated the need for further efforts to support the poorest areas. 6. Hospital delivery care in the study county was better accepted by women because most of women think delivery care was very important while prenatal and postnatal care were not. Hospital delivery care was more systematically provided and promoted than prenatal and postnatal care by township hospital in the study area. The reliance of hospital staff income on user fees gave the hospitals an incentive to put more emphasis on revenue generating activities such as delivery care instead of prenatal and postnatal care, since delivery care generated much profits than prenatal and postnatal care . Recommendations 1. It is essential for the central government to re-assess and modify existing family planning policies. In order to keep national sex balance, the existing practice of one couple one child in urban areas and at-least-one-son a couple in rural areas should be gradually changed to a two-children-a-couple policy throughout the country. The government should establish a favourable social security policy for couples, especially for rural couples who have only daughters, with particular emphasis on their pension and medical care insurance, combined with an educational campaign for equal rights for boys and girls in society. 2. There is currently no routine vital-statistics registration system in rural China. Using the findings of this study, the central government could set up a routine vital-statistics registration system using family planning routine work records, which could be used by policy makers and researchers. 3. It is possible for the central and provincial government to invest more in the less developed and poor rural areas to increase the access of pregnant women in these areas to maternal care services. Central government together with local government should gradually provide free maternal care including prenatal and postnatal as well as delivery care to the women in poor and less developed rural areas. 4. Future research could be done to explore if county and the township level health care sector and the family planning system could be merged to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of maternal and child care. 5. Future research could be done to explore the relative contribution of maternal care, economic development and family planning policy on perinatal and child health using prospective cohort studies and community based randomized trials. Key words: perinatal health, perinatal mortality, stillbirth, neonatal death, sex selective abortion, sex ratio at birth, family planning, son preference, maternal care, prenatal care, postnatal care, equity, China

Compression of Weighted Graphs

We propose to compress weighted graphs (networks), motivated by the observation that large networks of social, biological, or other relations can be complex to handle and visualize. In the process also known as graph simplication, nodes and (unweighted) edges are grouped to supernodes and superedges, respectively, to obtain a smaller graph. We propose models and algorithms for weighted graphs. The interpretation (i.e. decompression) of a compressed, weighted graph is that a pair of original nodes is connected by an edge if their supernodes are connected by one, and that the weight of an edge is approximated to be the weight of the superedge. The compression problem now consists of choosing supernodes, superedges, and superedge weights so that the approximation error is minimized while the amount of compression is maximized. In this paper, we formulate this task as the 'simple weighted graph compression problem'. We then propose a much wider class of tasks under the name of 'generalized weighted graph compression problem'. The generalized task extends the optimization to preserve longer-range connectivities between nodes, not just individual edge weights. We study the properties of these problems and propose a range of algorithms to solve them, with dierent balances between complexity and quality of the result. We evaluate the problems and algorithms experimentally on real networks. The results indicate that weighted graphs can be compressed efficiently with relatively little compression error.

Nanoscale Ag–Pd and Cu–Pd alloys

Nanoparticles of Ag-Pd and Gu-Pd alloys with diameters in the 5-40 nm range have been prepared over the entire range of compositions, by employing the heterogeneous reaction of dry methanol or ethanol with intimate mixtures of AgNO3+PdOx and CuOx+PdOx, respectively. The nanoscale alloys have been characterized by energy-dispersive Xray (EDX) analysis, transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD). All the alloy particles possess the fee structure and can be obtained in bulk quantities.

Sufficient conditions for formation of a network topology by self-interested agents

Networks such as organizational network of a global company play an important role in a variety of knowledge management and information diffusion tasks. The nodes in these networks correspond to individuals who are self-interested. The topology of these networks often plays a crucial role in deciding the ease and speed with which certain tasks can be accomplished using these networks. Consequently, growing a stable network having a certain topology is of interest. Motivated by this, we study the following important problem: given a certain desired network topology, under what conditions would best response (link addition/deletion) strategies played by self-interested agents lead to formation of a pairwise stable network with only that topology. We study this interesting reverse engineering problem by proposing a natural model of recursive network formation. In this model, nodes enter the network sequentially and the utility of a node captures principal determinants of network formation, namely (1) benefits from immediate neighbors, (2) costs of maintaining links with immediate neighbors, (3) benefits from indirect neighbors, (4) bridging benefits, and (5) network entry fee. Based on this model, we analyze relevant network topologies such as star graph, complete graph, bipartite Turan graph, and multiple stars with interconnected centers, and derive a set of sufficient conditions under which these topologies emerge as pairwise stable networks. We also study the social welfare properties of the above topologies.

Dislocation theory of the fracture criterion for anisotropic solids

A dislocation theory of fracture criterion for the mixed dislocation emission and cleavage process in an anisotropic solid is developed in this paper. The complicated cases involving mixed-mode loading are considered here. The explicit formula for dislocations interaction with a semi-infinite crack is obtained. The governing equation for the critical condition of crack cleavage in an anisotropic solid after a number dislocation emissions is established. The effects of elastic anisotropy, crack geometry and load phase angle on the critical energy release rate and the total number of the emitted dislocations at the onset of cleavage are analysed in detail. The analyses revealed that the critical energy release rates can increase to one or two magnitudes larger than the surface energy because of the dislocation emission. It is also found elastic anisotropy and crystal orientation have significant effects on the critical energy release rates. The anisotropic values can be several times the isotropic value in one crack orientation. The values may be as much as 40% less than the isotropic value in another crack orientation and another anisotropy parameter. Then the theory is applied to a fee single crystal. An edge dislocation can emit from the crack tip along the most highly shear stressed slip plane. Crack cleavage can occur along the most highly stressed slip plane after a number of dislocation emissions. Calculation is carried out step by step. Each step we should judge by which slip system is the most highly shear stressed slip system and which slip system has the largest energy release rate. The calculation clearly shows that the crack orientation and the load phase angle have significant effects on the crystal brittle-ductile behaviours.

Theoretical investigation of epitaxial deformation and the hcp-bcc transition of alkali metals

The deformation of alkali metals K, Rb, and Cs under epitaxial deformation is studied via the ab initio pseudopotential plane wave method using the local-density approximation. Under loading from the stable fee phase, metastable stares along directions [001], [111], and [201] are identified. One metastable state, presented at direction [201], has a very low symmetry in contrast to the planes [001] and [201]. Our results show that the softening direction and sequences of growth is significantly affected by the existence of the metastable states and magnitude of the energy barrier. The resulting softening sequences from soft to hard are [201], [110], [001], and [111] under biaxial compression and [001], [111], [201], and [110] under biaxial tension. An orthorhombic deformation path is used to investigate the fact, that the structure of the alkali films K and Cs evolve from the quasihexagonal structure into the (110)-oriented bcc structure, observed by experiments.

Style and the “Idea” of the sophist after Plato : the impact of form typology on sophistic teaching and writing on interdisciplinary scholarly work

Resumen: Después de la primera sofística, los sofistas actuaron entre el resto de los pensadores del Mediterráneo como un grupo definido. Dado que hay muchos ejemplos que muestran que los sofistas ejercían sus prácticas y que también eran personas comprometidas en otras actividades, vamos a examinar aquí diversos casos de semejanzas y diferencias entre ellos y otros grupos de pensadores. Nuestras tres preguntas fundamentales son: qué, cómo y por qué los sofistas escribían y enseñaban. Intentaremos responder haciendo un análisis diacrónico de las principales formas y géneros de escritura que produjeron (qué). El cómo lo responderemos en su desenvolvimiento como una actividad comunicativa más allá de las fronteras de las disciplinas de la época. El por qué tendrá su respuesta al enfatizar la necesidad de la actividad de los sofistas en la socialización de la época y en la educación de la antigüedad. Al aseverar que el estilo era la idea de los sofistas, ponemos la noción de idea en Platón en el contexto de idea derivado de los sofistas contemporáneos a él y de los sofistas posteriores (segunda sofística) y centramos el foco en la función de visualidad expresada en su concepto de idea desde las obras sofísticas más tempranas en la época de Platón hasta las contribuciones posteriores.

Espacios de paz : nuevos caminos de teologías interculturales de la paz

Resumen: Los múltiples movimientos de migración causados por la guerra, la violencia, la pobreza y las diversas violaciones de los derechos humanos son signos de nuestro tiempo. Históricamente, el término “paz” se asocia con la libertad y el espacio habitable de la ciudad. ¿Qué significa hablar de “paz” en un mundo en el cual las ciudades, espacios de libertad y seguridad, se tornan cada vez más fracturadas e incluso destruidas? Con este trasfondo, este aporte intenta trazar pistas para una teología intercultural de la paz e ilustrar algunos “espacios de paz” creados por mujeres.

带电胶体粒子结晶过程的实验研究

利用带电单分散聚苯乙烯胶体粒子,通过自组装机理,制备了体积百分比为4·8%的具有多晶结构的胶体晶体,并用Kossel衍射技术和紫外可见分光光度计分别对晶体的生长过程进行了监测.通过对Kossel的图像分析检测不同阶段相应的晶格结构,发现胶体结晶过程晶体结构演变顺序为由液态—随机层结构—堆无序结构—面心立方孪晶结构到面心立方结构.定量地确定了结晶过程中晶体不同晶面的晶面间距和晶体的晶格常数,通过紫外可见分光光度计测量的晶体透射谱图,计算得到111晶面的晶面间距和晶体的晶格常数,与用Kossel衍射技术得到的结果相一致,还发现随样品放置时间的延长,衰减峰变窄和加深,并向短波方向移动,对应着晶体的晶格常数减小的现象.

The Black Box of Mutual Fund Fees

This paper re-examines the determinants of mutual fund fees paid by mutual fund shareholders for management costs and other expenses. There are two novelties with respect to previous studies. First, each type of fee is explained separately. Second, the paper employs a new dataset consisting of Spanish mutual funds, making it the second paper to study mutual fund fees outside the US market. Furthermore, the Spanish market has three interesting characteristics: (i) both distribution and management are highly dominated by banks and savings banks, which points towards potential conflicts of interest; (ii) Spanish mutual fund law imposes caps on all types of fees; and (iii) Spain ranks first in terms of average mutual fund fees among similar countries. We find significant differences in mutual fund fees not explained by the fund’s investment objective. For instance, management companies owned by banks and savings banks charge higher management fees and redemption fees to nonguaranteed funds. Also, investors in older non-guaranteed funds and non-guaranteed funds with a lower average investment are more likely to end up paying higher management fees. Moreover, there is clear evidence that some mutual funds enjoy better conditions from custodial institutions than others. In contrast to evidence from the US market, larger funds are not associated with lower fees, but with higher custody fees for guaranteed funds and higher redemption fees for both types of funds. Finally, fee-setting by mutual funds is not related to fund before-fee performance.

Are Bar Associations Anticompetitive? An Empirical Analysis of Recommended Prices for Legal Services in Spain

The European Commission Report on Competition in Professional Services found that recommended prices by professional bodies have a significant negative effect on competition since they may facilitate the coordination of prices between service providers and/or mislead consumers about reasonable price levels. Professional associations argue, first, that a fee schedule may help their members to properly calculate the cost of services avoiding excessive charges and reducing consumers’ searching costs and, second, that recommended prices are very useful for cost appraisal if a litigant is condemned to pay the legal expenses of the opposing party. Thus, recommended fee schedules could be justified to some extent if they represented the cost of providing the services. We test this hypothesis using cross‐section data on a subset of recommended prices by 52 Spanish bar associations and cost data on their territorial jurisdictions. Our empirical results indicate that prices recommended by bar associations are unrelated to the cost of legal services and therefore we conclude that recommended prices have merely an anticompetitive effect.

Local solutions to local problems: A stormwater education collaborative

Currently completing its fifth year, the Coastal Waccamaw Stormwater Education Consortium (CWSEC) helps northeastern South Carolina communities meet National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) Phase II permit requirements for Minimum Control Measure 1 - Public Education and Outreach - and Minimum Control Measure 2 - Public Involvement. Coordinated by Coastal Carolina University, six regional organizations serve as core education providers to eight coastal localities including six towns and cities and two large counties. CWSEC recently finished a needs assessment to begin the process of strategizing for the second NPDES Phase II 5-year permit cycle in order to continue to develop and implement effective, results-oriented stormwater education and outreach programs to meet federal requirements and satisfy local environmental and economic needs. From its conception in May 2004, CWSEC set out to fulfill new federal Clean Water Act requirements associated with the NPDES Phase II Stormwater Program. Six small municipal separate storm sewer systems (MS4s) located within the Myrtle Beach Urbanized Area endorsed a coordinated approach to regional stormwater education, and participated in a needs assessment resulting in a Regional Stormwater Education Strategy and a Phased Education Work Plan. In 2005, CWSEC was formally established and the CWSEC’s Coordinator was hired. The Coordinator, who is also the Environmental Educator at Coastal Carolina University’s Waccamaw Watershed Academy, organizes six regional agencies who serve as core education providers for eight coastal communities. The six regional agencies working as core education providers to the member MS4s include Clemson Public Service and Carolina Clear Program, Coastal Carolina University’s Waccamaw Watershed Academy, Murrells Inlet 2020, North Inlet-Winyah Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve’s Coastal Training and Public Education Programs, South Carolina Sea Grant Consortium, and Winyah Rivers Foundation’s Waccamaw Riverkeeper®. CWSEC’s organizational structure results in a synergy among the education providers, achieving greater productivity than if each provider worked separately. The member small MS4s include City of Conway, City of North Myrtle Beach, City of Myrtle Beach, Georgetown County, Horry County, Town of Atlantic Beach, Town of Briarcliffe Acres, and Town of Surfside Beach. Each MS4 contributes a modest annual fee toward the salary of the Coordinator and operational costs. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Um problema de interferências quânticas: segregação de impurezas em sistemas metálicos nanoestruturados

Neste trabalho estudamos o problema da segregação de impurezas substitucionais em sistemas nanoestruturados metálicos formados pela justaposição de camadas (multicamadas). Utilizamos o modelo de ligações fortes (tight-binding) com um orbital por sítio para calcular a estrutura eletrônica desses sistemas, considerando a rede cristalina cubica simples em duas direções de crescimento: (001) e (011). Devido à perda de simetria do sistema, escrevemos o hamiltoniano em termos de um vetor de onda k, paralelo ao plano, e um ındice l que denota um plano arbitrario do sistema. Primeiramente, calculamos a estrutura eletrônica do sistema considerando-o formado por átomos do tipo A e, posteriormente, investigamos as modificações nessa estrutura eletrônica ao introduzirmos uma impureza do tipo B em um plano arbitrário do sistema. Calculamos o potencial introduzido por esta impureza levando-se em conta a neutralidade de carga através da regra de soma de Friedel. Calculamos a variação da energia eletrônica total ΔEl como função da posição da impureza. Como substrato, consideramos sistemas com ocupações iguais a 0.94 e 0.54 elétrons por banda, o que dentro do modelo nos permite chamá-los de Nie Cr. As impurezas sao tambem metais de transição - Mn, Fee Co. Em todos os casos investigados, foi verificado que a variação de energia eletrônica total apresenta um comportamento oscilatorio em função da posição da impureza no sistema, desde o plano superficial, até vários planos interiores do sistema. Como resultado, verificamos a ocorrencia de planos mais favoráveis à localização da impureza. Ao considerarmos um número relativamente grande de planos, um caso em particular foi destacado pelo aparecimento de um batimentono comportamento oscilatório de ΔEl. Estudamos também o comportamento da variação da energia total, quando camadas (filmes) são crescidas sobre o substrato e uma impureza do mesmo tipo das camadas é colocada no substrato. Levamos em conta a diferença de tamanho entre os átomos do substrato e os átomos dos filmes. Analisamos ainda a influência da temperatura sobre o comportamento oscilatório da energia total, considerando a expansão de Sommerfeld.

Hekate, de deusa ctônica dos atenienses do período clássico à deusa da feitiçaria no imaginário social do Ocidente

Nosso eixo temático se desenvolve a partir do questionamento do epíteto de Deusa da Feitiçaria atribuído tardiamente à deidade grega Hekate. A partir do período Clássico em Atenas iniciaram-se críticas às práticas mágico-religiosas cujo objetivo era fazer mal ao inimigo; realizadas por indivíduos (mágoi - magos) os quais também sabiam utilizá-las para a cura, como o uso das phármaka (ervas). O desenvolvimento da Escola de Medicina Hipocrática, no período Clássico, e seus tratados médicos, se configuram como uma das críticas direcionadas aos mágoi e das divindades que evocavam em suas práticas mágicas. Um tratado em especial, Da Doença Sagrada, combate a divinização da epilepsia e as práticas curativas desta enfermidade através da persuasão dos deuses. Platão também teceu críticas aos que ofereciam seus serviços mágicos de porta em porta por uma pequena quantia. Acreditamos que a partir dessas críticas se desenvolveu no imaginário social ateniense a relação entre a deusa grega Hekate e a magia de fazer mal ao inimigo cuja permanência é observada nos dias atuais. Nosso arcabouço teórico constitui-se dos conceitos desenvolvidos pelo filósofo polonês Bronislaw Baczko no verbete imaginação social na Enciclopedia Einaudi.

Case studies of two contrasting rainfall episodes in Hawaii

This case study, utilizing surface and upper-air data, has attempted to shed light on the mechanisms that exerted control on two contrasting rainfall episodes in Hawaii [in the dry winter of 1981 and wet winter of 1982].