A data-driven analytics approach in the study of pneumonia’s fatalities

As huge amounts of data become available in organizations and society, specific data analytics skills and techniques are needed to explore this data and extract from it useful patterns, tendencies, models or other useful knowledge, which could be used to support the decision-making process, to define new strategies or to understand what is happening in a specific field. Only with a deep understanding of a phenomenon it is possible to fight it. In this paper, a data-driven analytics approach is used for the analysis of the increasing incidence of fatalities by pneumonia in the Portuguese population, characterizing the disease and its incidence in terms of fatalities, knowledge that can be used to define appropriate strategies that can aim to reduce this phenomenon, which has increased more than 65% in a decade.

Study to determine the cardiovascular risk ofthe population of Guimarães/Vizela, includingthe prevalence of arterial stiffness and early vascular aging syndrome

Tese de Doutoramento em Medicina.

Pulse wave velocity distribution in a cohort study: from arterial stiffness to early vascular aging

BACKGROUND: By contrast with other southern European people, north Portuguese population registers an especially high prevalence of hypertension and stroke incidence. We designed a cohort study to identify individuals presenting accelerated and premature arterial aging in the Portuguese population. METHOD: Pulse wave velocity (PWV) was measured in randomly sampled population dwellers aged 18-96 years from northern Portugal, and used as a marker of early vascular aging (EVA). Of the 3038 individuals enrolled, 2542 completed the evaluation. RESULTS: Mean PWV value for the entire population was 8.4?m/s (men: 8.6?m/s; women: 8.2?m/s; P??10?m/s). Logistic regression models indicated gender differences concerning the risk of developing large artery damage, with women having the same odds of PWV above 10?m/s 10 years later than men. CONCLUSION: The population PWV values were higher than expected in a low cardiovascular risk area (Portugal). High prevalence rates of EVA and noteworthy large artery damage in young ages were found.

Incidence and Predictors of Cardiovascular Complications and Death after Vascular Surgery

AbstractBackground:Patients undergoing arterial vascular surgery are considered at increased risk for post-operative complications.Objective:To assess the incidence and predictors of complications and death, as well as the performance of two models of risk stratification, in vascular surgery.Methods:This study determined the incidence of cardiovascular complications and deaths within 30 days from surgery in adults. Univariate comparison and logistic regression assessed the risk factors associated with the outcomes, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve assessed the discriminatory capacity of the revised cardiac risk index (RCRI) and vascular study group of New England cardiac risk index (VSG-CRI).Results:141 patients (mean age, 66 years; 65% men) underwent the following surgeries: carotid (15); lower limbs (65); abdominal aorta (56); and others (5). Cardiovascular complications and death occurred within 30 days in 28 (19.9%) and 20 (14.2%) patients, respectively. The risk predictors were: age, obesity, stroke, poor functional capacity, altered scintigraphy, surgery of the aorta, and troponin change. The scores RCRI and VSG-CRI had area under the curve of 0.635 and 0.639 for early cardiovascular complications, and 0.562 and 0.610 for death in 30 days.Conclusion:In this small and selected group of patients undergoing arterial vascular surgery, the incidence of adverse events was elevated. The risk assessment indices RCRI and VSG-CRI did not perform well for complications within 30 days.

Scores to predict major bleeding risk during oral anticoagulation therapy: a prospective validation study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical scores may help physicians to better assess the individual risk/benefit of oral anticoagulant therapy. We aimed to externally validate and compare the prognostic performance of 7 clinical prediction scores for major bleeding events during oral anticoagulation therapy. METHODS: We followed 515 adult patients taking oral anticoagulants to measure the first major bleeding event over a 12-month follow-up period. The performance of each score to predict the risk of major bleeding and the physician's subjective assessment of bleeding risk were compared with the C statistic. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of a first major bleeding event during follow-up was 6.8% (35/515). According to the 7 scoring systems, the proportions of major bleeding ranged from 3.0% to 5.7% for low-risk, 6.7% to 9.9% for intermediate-risk, and 7.4% to 15.4% for high-risk patients. The overall predictive accuracy of the scores was poor, with the C statistic ranging from 0.54 to 0.61 and not significantly different from each other (P=.84). Only the Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation score performed slightly better than would be expected by chance (C statistic, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.70). The performance of the scores was not statistically better than physicians' subjective risk assessments (C statistic, 0.55; P=.94). CONCLUSION: The performance of 7 clinical scoring systems in predicting major bleeding events in patients receiving oral anticoagulation therapy was poor and not better than physicians' subjective assessments.

Morbidity and aging in HIV-infected persons: the Swiss HIV cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Patterns of morbidity and mortality among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals taking antiretroviral therapy are changing as a result of immune reconstitution and improved survival. We studied the influence of aging on the epidemiology of non-AIDS diseases in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: The Swiss HIV Cohort Study is a prospective observational cohort established in 1988 with continuous enrollment. We determined the incidence of clinical events (per 1000 person-years) from January 2008 (when a new questionnaire on non-AIDS-related morbidity was introduced) through December 2010. Differences across age groups were analyzed using Cox regression, adjusted for CD4 cell count, viral load, sex, injection drug use, smoking, and years of HIV infection. RESULTS: Overall, 8444 (96%) of 8848 participants contributed data from 40,720 semiannual visits; 2233 individuals (26.4%) were aged 50-64 years, and 450 (5.3%) were aged ≥65 years. The median duration of HIV infection was 15.4 years (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.59-22.0 years); 23.2% had prior clinical AIDS. We observed 994 incident non-AIDS events in the reference period: 201 cases of bacterial pneumonia, 55 myocardial infarctions, 39 strokes, 70 cases of diabetes mellitus, 123 trauma-associated fractures, 37 fractures without adequate trauma, and 115 non-AIDS malignancies. Multivariable hazard ratios for stroke (17.7; CI, 7.06-44.5), myocardial infarction (5.89; 95% CI, 2.17-16.0), diabetes mellitus (3.75; 95% CI, 1.80-7.85), bone fractures without adequate trauma (10.5; 95% CI, 3.58-30.5), osteoporosis (9.13; 95% CI, 4.10-20.3), and non-AIDS-defining malignancies (6.88; 95% CI, 3.89-12.2) were elevated for persons aged ≥65 years. CONCLUSIONS: Comorbidity and multimorbidity because of non-AIDS diseases, particularly diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, non-AIDS-defining malignancies, and osteoporosis, become more important in care of HIV-infected persons and increase with older age.

Vaniprevir with pegylated interferon alpha-2a and ribavirin in treatment-naïve patients with chronic hepatitis C: a randomized phase II study.

Vaniprevir (MK-7009) is a macrocyclic hepatitis C virus (HCV) nonstructural protein 3/4A protease inhibitor. The aim of the present phase II study was to examine virologic response rates with vaniprevir in combination with pegylated interferon alpha-2a (Peg-IFN-α-2a) plus ribavirin (RBV). In this double-blind, placebo-controlled, dose-ranging study, treatment-naïve patients with HCV genotype 1 infection (n = 94) were randomized to receive open-label Peg-IFN-α-2a (180 μg/week) and RBV (1,000-1,200 mg/day) in combination with blinded placebo or vaniprevir (300 mg twice-daily [BID], 600 mg BID, 600 mg once-daily [QD], or 800 mg QD) for 28 days, then open-label Peg-IFN-α-2a and RBV for an additional 44 weeks. The primary efficacy endpoint was rapid viral response (RVR), defined as undetectable plasma HCV RNA at week 4. Across all doses, vaniprevir was associated with a rapid two-phase decline in viral load, with HCV RNA levels approximately 3 log(10) IU/mL lower in vaniprevir-treated patients, compared to placebo recipients. Rates of RVR were significantly higher in each of the vaniprevir dose groups, compared to the control regimen (68.8%-83.3% versus 5.6%; P < 0.001 for all comparisons). There were numerically higher, but not statistically significant, early and sustained virologic response rates with vaniprevir, as compared to placebo. Resistance profile was predictable, with variants at R155 and D168 detected in a small number of patients. No relationship between interleukin-28B genotype and treatment outcomes was demonstrated in this study. The incidence of adverse events was generally comparable between vaniprevir and placebo recipients; however, vomiting appeared to be more common at higher vaniprevir doses. CONCLUSION: Vaniprevir is a potent HCV protease inhibitor with a predictable resistance profile and favorable safety profile that is suitable for QD or BID administration.

Pathologic ventricular hypertrophy in the offspring of diabetic mothers : a retrospective study

L'hypertrophie ventriculaire pathologique chez les nouveau-nés des mères diabétiques une étude rétrospective RESUME Objectif L'incidence du diabète chez les femmes enceintes ne cesse de croître, de même que les complications chez leurs nouveau-nés. C'est pourquoi, nous avons étudié la population de mères diabétiques suivies dans notre établissement entre les années 2003-2005 dans le but d'analyser spécifiquement le problème d'hypertrophie ventriculaire pathologique (HVP) chez les nouveau-nés de cette population. Méthode et résultats Dans notre étude rétrospective comprenant 87 grossesses de femmes diabétiques (92 nouveau-nés), 16 présentaient un diabète de type 1, 17 de type 2 et 54 ont développé un diabète gestationnel (DG). Le médian des hémoglobines glycquées (HbAlc) pour cette population est de 5.8% (5.3-6.5) : 17 avaient une HbAlc au-dessus de la norme, dont 2 souffrant d'une cardiomyopathie congénitale (CMC) et six d'une HVP. Un total de 75 nouveaux-nés étaient normaux, cinq avaient une CMC et 12 une HVP (1/12 décédé post-natalement, 1/12 mort-né, 2/12 nécessitant un accouchement prématuré, 8/12 normaux). Les 16 mères avec un diabète de type 1 accouchèrent de trois nouveau-nés avec une CMC et de 50% avec une HVP, comprenant un enfant décédé et un prématuré né par césarienne à cause d'une HVP. Dans le groupe des 17 nouveau-nés issus d'une mère connue pour un diabète de type 2, un cas présentait une CMC et 25% des cas une HVP. Parmi les 54 grossesses avec un DG, on dénombre un cas de CMC et un cas de HVP. Conclusion Les grossesses de mères souffrant d'un diabète de type 1 et de type 2 comportent toutes deux un risque augmenté de développement d'une HVP comparées à celles de mères ayant développé un diabète gestationnel. Les contrôles glycémiques sont insuffisants pour éviter la survenue d'une HVP. Comme aucun autre paramètre prédictif n'a pu été défini jusqu'alors, nous concluons qu'un suivi échographique rapproché de ces grossesses peut prévenir des complications périnatales sévères.

Ecologic correlations of selected food groups with disease incidence and mortality in Switzerland.

Background: There is little information regarding the impact of diet on disease incidence and mortality in Switzerland. We assessed ecologic correlations between food availability and disease.Methods: In this ecologic study for the period 1970-2009, food availability was measured using the food balance sheets of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Standardized mortality rates (SMRs) were obtained from the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics. Cancer incidence data were obtained from the World Health Organization Health For All database and the Vaud Cancer Registry. Associations between food availability and mortality/incidence were assessed at lags 0, 5, 10, and 15 years by multivariate regression adjusted for total caloric intake.Results: Alcoholic beverages and fruit availability were positively associated, and fish availability was inversely associated, with SMRs for cardiovascular diseases. Animal products, meat, and animal fats were positively associated with the SMR for ischemic heart disease only. For cancer, the results of analysis using SMRs and incidence rates were contradictory. Alcoholic beverages and fruits were positively associated with SMRs for all cancer but inversely associated with all-cancer incidence rates. Similar findings were obtained for all other foods except vegetables, which were weakly inversely associated with SMRs and incidence rates. Use of a 15-year lag reversed the associations with animal and vegetal products, weakened the association with alcohol and fruits, and strengthened the association with fish.Conclusions: Ecologic associations between food availability and disease vary considerably on the basis of whether mortality or incidence rates are used in the analysis. Great care is thus necessary when interpreting our results.

Rebellion against Reason? A Study of Expressive Choice and Strikes

In this paper we challenge the conventional view that strikes are caused by asymmetric information regarding rm profitability such that union members are uninformed. Instead, we build an expressive model of strikes where the perception of unfairness provides the expressive benefi t of voting for a strike. The model predicts that larger union size increases both wage offers and the incidence of strikes. Furthermore, while asymmetric information is still important in causing strikes, we find that it is the employer who is not fully informed about the level of emotionality within the union, thereby contributing to strike incidence. An empirical test using UK data provides support for the predictions. In particular, union size has a positive effect on the incidence of strikes and other industrial actions even when asymmetric information regarding profitability is controlled for.

Rebellion against Reason? A Study of Expressive Choice and Strikes

In this paper we challenge the conventional view that strikes are caused by asymmetric information regarding firm protability such that union members are uninformed. Instead, we build an expressive model of strikes where the perception of unfairness provides the expressive benefit of voting for a strike. The model predicts that larger union size increases both wage offers and the incidence of strikes. Furthermore, while asymmetric information is still important in causing strikes, we find that it is the employer who is not fully informed about the level of emotionality within the union, thereby contributing to strike incidence. An empirical test using UK data provides support for the predictions. In particular, union size has a positive effect on the incidence of strikes and other industrial actions even when asymmetric information regarding protability is controlled for.

Clinical and pharmacogenetic study on smoking and smoking cessation

Currently, smoking cessation represents one of the main strategies to reduce the incidence of tobacco-related diseases in the population. Smoking can also influence pharmacotherapy through several pharmacokinetic or pharmacodynamic interactions. Some of the most concerned drugs are those metabolized by the cytochrome P450 (CYP) 1A2 enzyme (e.g. caffeine, theophylline, clozapine, olanzapine, duloxetine), whose activity is induced by the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons found in tobacco smoke. This can result in a clinically significant decrease in the pharmacological effect of the drugs and the need of higher doses in smokers. Conversely, upon smoking cessation, toxic plasma levels of the drugs can be reached. The main objective of this thesis was to study the interindividual variability in CYP1A2 induction in a large cohort of smokers, by measuring CYP1A2 activity before smoking cessation and one month later in continuously abstinent subjects. For this purpose, a clinical study was conducted, including 194 smokers from the general population who wished to participate in a smoking cessation program and therefore received medical counseling and substitution therapy (nicotine or varenicline). An analytical method for the simultaneous quantification of nicotine, its metabolites and varenicline in plasma was developed and validated using ultra performance liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. This method was used to confirm abstinence at different time points during the follow-up. Moreover, it was used to determine plasma levels of the smoking cessation drugs, to be used in the study of their pharmacogenetics, which was the secondary objective of this thesis. High interindividual variability in CYP1A2 induction by smoking was observed, ranging from no change to approximately 7 times decreased CYP1A2 activity after smoking cessation. Several clinical and genetic factors were investigated in an attempt to explain this variability. Firstly, a significant influence of CYP1A2*1F and *1D alleles, of contraceptive use and of the number of cigarettes smoked per day on CYP1A2 induced activity was observed, and of CYP1A2*1F and the use of contraceptives on the basal activity. But no influence of these factors was found on CYP1A2 inducibility. Given that known genetic polymorphisms in CYP1A2 gene were shown to explain only poorly the observed variations in activity, additional genetic factors were studied. SNPs in the CYP oxidoreductase (POR) gene were found to influence CYP1A2 basal activity, but not the induction. Finally, a pathway-based approach allowed to identify SNPs in genes coding for nuclear receptors (CAR, RXRa, VDR, PXR) and induction-mediating receptors (AhR), which significantly influenced CYP1A2 inducibility and basal activity (SNPs in the gene coding for CAR and RXRa). As secondary objective of the study, the pharmacogenetics of nicotine and varenicline is being investigated. Therefore, the nicotine metabolite ratio is used in the attempt to better explain nicotine dependence and the failure/success of quitting smoking. A population pharmacokinetic model is being developed for varenicline, integrating clinical and genetic factors (genes coding for its metabolizing enzymes and transporters), with the purpose of trying to predict efficacy and side effects. These findings suggest that the influence of smoking on pharmacotherapy could be better managed by including clinical and possibly in the future genetic factors, in the assessment of the adaptations needed when a person starts or stops smoking.  - L'arrêt du tabac représente une des principales stratégies pour diminuer l'incidence des maladies causées par celui-ci. Le tabagisme peut influencer la thérapie médicamenteuse par des interactions pharmacocinétiques ou pharmacodynamiques. Parmi les médicaments concernés, il y a ceux métabolisés par le cytochrome P450 (CYP) 1A2 (caféine, théophylline, clozapine, olanzapine, duloxétine, etc), dont l'activité enzymatique est induite par les hydrocarbures aromatiques polycycliques présents dans la fumée de cigarette. Ceci peut se traduire par une diminution de l'effet pharmacologique du traitement et la nécessité d'augmenter les doses d'entretien chez les fumeurs. Au contraire, à l'arrêt de la cigarette, les taux plasmatiques des médicaments peuvent devenir toxiques. L'objectif principal de cette thèse était d'étudier la variabilité interindividuelle dans l'induction du CYP1A2 dans une large cohorte de fumeurs, par la mesure de l'activité du CYP1A2 avant l'arrêt de la cigarette, ainsi qu'un mois après chez les sujets abstinents. Pour ce faire, une étude clinique a été conduite, incluant 194 fumeurs de la population générale dans un programme d'arrêt du tabac offrant des consultations spécifiques et un traitement pharmacologique (nicotine ou varénicline). Une méthode analytique pour la quantification simultanée de la nicotine, ses métabolites et la varénicline dans le plasma par chromatographie liquide couplée à la spectrométrie de masse en tandem à été développée et validée. Cette méthode a été utilisée pour confirmer l'abstinence pendant l'étude et déterminer les taux plasmatiques des médicaments, dans le but d'étudier leur pharmacogénétique. Une grande variabilité interindividuelle dans l'induction du CYP1A2 par la fumée a été observée, parfois sans changement et pouvant aller jusqu'à une diminution d'environ 7 fois l'activité du CYP1A2 après l'arrêt de la cigarette. Plusieurs facteurs cliniques et génétiques ont été étudiés pour essayer d'expliquer cette variabilité. Tout d'abord, on a observé une influence significative: des allèles CYP1A2*1F et *1D, des contraceptifs et du nombre de cigarettes fumées par jour sur l'activité induite du CYP1A2, ainsi que l'influence de l'allèle *1F et des contraceptifs sur l'activité basale. Cependant, aucune influence de ces facteurs n'a été démontrée sur l'inductibilité du CYP1A2. Étant donné que les polymorphismes génétiques du CYP1A2 apportent peu de renseignements sur la variabilité de son activité, des facteurs génétiques supplémentaires ont été étudiés. Des polymorphismes dans le gène POR (CYP oxidoreductase) ont été associés à l'activité basale du CYP1A2, mais pas à l'induction. Finalement, une approche basée sur la voie de signalisation du CYP1A2 a permis d'identifier des polymorphismes dans des gènes codant pour des récepteurs nucléaires (CAR, RXRa, VDR, PXR) et d'autres liés à l'induction (AhR) qui influencent significativement l'inductibilité et l'activité basale (les SNPs du CAR et RXRa). L'objectif secondaire de cette étude était d'investiguer la pharmacogénétique de la nicotine et de la varénicline. Le ratio métabolique de la nicotine est utilisé pour mieux expliquer la dépendance à la nicotine et le succès/échec de l'arrêt de la cigarette. Un modèle pharmacocinétique de population est en cours de développement pour la varénicline, intégrant des facteurs cliniques et génétiques (gènes codant pour ses enzymes de métabolisme et transporteurs), pour tenter de prédire son efficacité et ses effets secondaires. Les résultats de cette thèse suggèrent que l'influence du tabagisme sur la pharmacothérapie serait mieux gérée par l'inclusion des facteurs cliniques et peut-être, dans le futur, génétiques, dans l'évaluation des adaptations nécessaires lorsqu'une personne fume ou arrête de fumer.  - l'arrêt du tabac représente une des principales stratégies pour diminuer l'incidence des maladies causées par celui-ci dans la population. Le tabagisme peut influencer les traitements médicamenteux, soit en modifiant leur élimination par l'organisme, soit en agissant sur leur mode d'action. Parmi les médicaments les plus concernés, on retrouve par exemple: la caféine, la théophylline, la clozapine, l'olanzapine, la duloxétine, dont l'élimination est accélérée par la fumée de cigarette (induction enzymatique). Ceci peut se traduire par une diminution de l'effet du traitement et la nécessité d'en augmenter les doses chez les fumeurs. Au contraire, à l'arrêt de la cigarette, on observe un ralentissement de la fonction enzymatique, qui a pour conséquence une augmentation du taux de médicament dans le sang, pouvant devenir toxique. L'objectif principal de cette thèse était d'étudier comment cette induction par le tabac varie dans une population de fumeurs, par la mesure de l'activité de l'enzyme avant l'arrêt de la cigarette, ainsi qu'un mois après chez les sujets abstinents. Pour ce faire, une étude clinique a été conduite, incluant 194 fumeurs de la population générale dans un programme d'arrêt du tabac offrant des consultations spécifiques et un traitement médicamenteux (nicotine ou varénicline). Une méthode analytique a été mise au point pour mesurer la quantité de nicotine, de ses produits de dégradation et de la varénicline dans le sang des participants à l'étude. De plus, cette méthode a été utilisée pour confirmer l'abstinence pendant l'étude. Une grande variabilité interindividuelle a été observée dans l'induction de l'enzyme par la fumée; il en résulte aucun changement d'activité chez certains sujets après l'arrêt de la cigarette, alors que pour d'autres elle peut être diminuée jusqu'à 7 fois. Plusieurs facteurs cliniques et génétiques ont été étudiés pour essayer d'expliquer cette variabilité. Premièrement, une influence sur l'activité de l'enzyme a été observée pour les contraceptifs hormonaux et le nombre de cigarettes fumées par jour, ainsi que pour certaines variations génétiques dans le gène codant pour l'enzyme d'intérêt, mais il η y a pas eu d'influence sur l'induction. Par la suite, des variations génétiques dans d'autres gènes influençant le fonctionnement de l'enzyme ont été associées soit avec son activité, soit avec son induction par le tabac. Finalement, l'étude propose également d'investiguer si le métabolisme de la nicotine a une influence sur la dépendance, les symptômes de sevrage et le succès/échec de l'arrêt de la cigarette. Des variations génétiques dans les gènes du métabolisme de la varénicline sont également étudiées en lien avec les quantités de varénicline mesurées dans le sang ainsi que les effets du médicament. Ceci permettra peut-être de prédire son efficacité et ses effets secondaires. Les résultats de cette thèse suggèrent que l'influence du tabagisme sur la thérapie médicamenteuse serait mieux gérée en tenant compte des facteurs cliniques et peut-être, dans le futur, de la génétique dans l'adaptation des traitements, que la personne soit fumeuse ou en phase d'arrêt.

Clinical and biological determinants of kidney outcomes in a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Prospective studies on factors associated with adverse kidney outcomes in European general populations are scant. Also, few studies consider the potential confounding effect of baseline kidney function. METHODS: We used baseline (2003-2006) and 5-year follow-up data of adults from the general population to evaluate the effect of baseline kidney function and proteinuria on the association of clinical, biological (e.g. uric acid, homocysteine, cytokines), and socioeconomic factors with change in kidney function, rapid decline in kidney function, and incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albuminuria-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) were collected. Kidney outcomes were modeled using multivariable regressions. RESULTS: A total of 4,441 subjects were included in the analysis. Among participants without CKD at baseline, 11.4% presented rapid decline in eGFR and/or incident CKD. After adjustment for baseline eGFR and log UACR, only age (Odds Ratio; 1.25 [95%CI 1.18-1.33]), diabetes (OR 1.48 [1.03-2.13]), education (OR middle vs. high 1.51 [1.08-2.11]) and log ultrasensitive CRP (OR 1.16 [1.05-1.22]) were associated with rapid decline in eGFR or incident CKD. Baseline log UACR (OR 1.18 [1.06-1.32]) but not eGFR was associated with rapid decline in eGFR and/or incident CKD. CONCLUSION: In addition to age and diabetes, education and CRP levels are associated with adverse kidney outcomes independently of baseline kidney function.

Canakinumab Reduces The Risk Of Acute Gouty Arthritis Flares During Initiation Of Allopurinol Therapy: Results Of A Double-blind, Randomised Study

RATIONALE: This study assessed the efficacy and safety of canakinumab, a fully human anti-interleukin-1beta monoclonal antibody, for prophylaxis against acute gouty arthritis flares in patients initiating uratelowering therapy.METHODS: In this double-blind, double-dummy, dose-ranging study, 432 patients with gouty arthritis initiating allopurinol therapy were randomised 1:1:1:1:1:1:2 to receive: a single dose of canakinumab, 25, 50, 100, 200, or 300 mg subcutaneously (sc); four 4-weekly doses of canakinumab (50150125125 mg sc); or daily colchicine 0.5 mg orally for 16 weeks. Patients recorded details of flares in diaries. The study aimed to determine the canakinumab dose having equivalent efficacy to colchicine 0.5 mg at 16 weeks.RESULTS: A dose-response for canakinumab was not apparent with any of the four pre-defined dose-responsemodels. The estimated canakinumab dose with equivalent efficacy to colchicinewas belowthe range of doses tested.At 16 weeks, therewas a 62-72% reduction in themean number of flares per patient for canakinumab doses >50 mg vs colchicine based on a negative binomial model (rate ratio: 0.28-0.38, p50.0083), and the percentage of patients experiencing >1 flarewas significantly lower for all canakinumab doses (15- 27%) vs colchicine (44%, p<0.05). Therewas a 64-72%reduction in the risk of experiencing >1 flare for canakinumab doses >50 mg vs colchicine at 16 weeks (hazard ratio: 0.28-0.36, p50.05). The incidence of adverse events was similar across treatment groups.CONCLUSIONS: Single canakinumab doses >50 mg or four 4-weekly doses provided superior prophylaxis against flares compared with daily colchicine 0.5 mg.

Severe traumatic brain injury in Switzerland - feasibility and first results of a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to study the incidence and outcome of severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) in Switzerland and to test the feasibility of a large cohort study with case identification in the first 24 hours and 6-month follow-up. METHODS: From January to June 2005, we consecutively enrolled and followed up all persons with severe TBI (Abbreviated Injury Score of the head region >3 and Glasgow Coma Scale <9) in the catchment areas of 3 Swiss medical centres with neurosurgical facilities. The primary outcome was the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE) after 6 months. Secondary outcomes included survival, Functional Independence Mea - sure (FIM), and health-related quality of life (SF-12) at defined time-points up to 6 months after injury. RESULTS: We recruited 101 participants from a source population of about 2.47 million (ie, about 33% of Swiss population). The incidence of severe TBI was 8.2 per 100,000 person-years. The overall case fatality was 70%: 41 of 101 persons (41%) died at the scene of the accident. 23 of 60 hospitalised participants (38%) died within 48 hours, and 31 (53%) within 6 months. In all hospitalised patients, the median GOSE was 1 (range 1-8) after 6 months, and was 6 (2-8) in 6-month survivors. The median total FIM score was 125 (range 18-126); median-SF-12 component mea - sures were 44 (25-55) for the physical scale and 52 (32-65) for the mental scale. CONCLUSIONS: Severe TBI was associated with high case fatality and considerable morbidity in survivors. We demonstrated the feasibility of a multicentre cohort study in Switzerland with the aim of identifying modifiable determinants of outcome and improving current trauma care.