Diversity of free-living marine nematodes (Enoplida) from Baja California assessed by integrative taxonomy

We used morphological and molecular approaches to evaluate the diversity of free-living marine nematodes (order Enoplida) at four coastal sites in the Gulf of California and three on the Pacific coast of Baja California, Mexico. We identified 22 morphological species belonging to six families, of which Thoracostomopsidae and Oncholaimidae were the most diverse. The genus Mesacanthion (Thoracostomopsidae) was the most widespread and diverse. Five allopatric species, genetically and morphologically differentiated, were found in two localities in the Gulf of California (M. sp1 and M. sp2) and three in the Pacific coast (M. sp3, M. sp4 and M. sp5). Overall, we produced 19 and 20 sequences for the 18S and 28S genes, respectively. Neither gene displayed intraspecific polymorphisms, which allowed us to establish that some morphological variation was likely either ontogenetic or due to phenotypic plasticity. Although 18S and 28S phylogenies were topologically congruent (incongruence length difference test, P > 0.05), divergences between species were much higher in the 28S gene. Moreover, this gene possessed a stronger phylogenetic signal to resolve relationships involving Rhabdodemania and Bathylaimus. On the other hand, the close relationship of Pareurystomina (Enchilidiidae) with oncholaimids warrants further study. The 28S sequences (D2D3 domain) may be better suited for DNA barcoding of marine nematodes than those from the 18S rDNA, particularly for differentiating closely related or cryptic species. Finally, our results underline the relevance of adopting an integrative approach encompassing morphological and molecular analyses to improve the assessment of marine nematode diversity and advance their taxonomy.

Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

The new research centre of the Brazilian Petroleum Company in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: The achievements in the thermal performance of air-conditioned buildings in the tropics

The study on the thermal performance of the air-conditioned buildings of the new research centre of the Brazilian Petroleum Company, in the tropical climate of Rio de Janeiro, was part of a bigger research and consultancy, project involving environmental issues. The architectural design was the subject of a national competition in 2004, encompassing over 100,000 m(2). According to the design brief, out of the 10 buildings of the new research centre, 7 have to be either completely or partially air-conditioned, due to specific occupation requirements. The challenge for better thermal performance was related to systems` energy efficiency, to the introduction of natural ventilation and to the notion of adaptive comfort, which were verified with the support of thermal dynamic simulations. At the early stages of the assessments, the potential for natural ventilation in the working spaces considering the mixed-mode strategy achieved 30% of occupation hours. However, the development of the design project led to fully air-conditioned working spaces, due to users` references regarding the conventional culture of the office environment. Nevertheless, the overall architectural approach in accordance to the climatic conditions still showed a contribution to the buildings` energy efficiency. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cryptic vicariance in Gulf of California fishes parallels vicariant patterns found in Baja, California mammals and reptiles

Comparisons across multiple taxa can often clarify the histories of biogeographic regions. In particular, historic barriers to movement should affect multiple species and, thus, result in a pattern of concordant intraspecific genetic divisions among species. A striking example of such comparative phylogeography is the recent observation that populations of many small mammals and reptiles living on the Baja, California peninsula have a large genetic break between northern and southern peninsular populations. In the present study, I demonstrate that five species of near-shore fishes living on the Baja coastline of the Gulf of California share this genetic pattern. The simplest explanation for this concordant genetic division within both terrestrial and marine vertebrates is that the Baja peninsula was fragmented by a Plio-Pleistocene marine seaway and that this seaway posed a substantial barrier to movement for near-shore fishes. The genetic divisions within Gulf of California fishes also coincide with recognized biogeographic regions based on fish community composition and several environmental factors. It is likely that adaptation to regional environments and present-day oceanographic circulation limits gene exchange between biogeographic regions and helps maintain evidence of past vicariance.

Remotely sensed estimates of vegetation structural characteristics in restored wetlands, Southern California

Traditional field sampling approaches for ecological studies of restored habitat can only cover small areas in detail, con be time consuming, and are often invasive and destructive. Spatially extensive and non-invasive remotely sensed data can make field sampling more focused and efficient. The objective of this work was to investigate the feasibility and accuracy of hand-held and airborne remotely sensed data to estimate vegetation structural parameters for an indicator plant species in a restored wetland. High spatial resolution, digital, multispectral camera images were captured from an aircraft over Sweetwater Marsh (San Diego County, California) during each growing season between 1992-1996. Field data were collected concurrently, which included plant heights, proportional ground cover and canopy architecture type, and spectral radiometer measurements. Spartina foliosa (Pacific cordgrass) is the indicator species for the restoration monitoring. A conceptual model summarizing the controls on the spectral reflectance properties of Pacific cordgrass was established. Empirical models were developed relating the stem length, density, and canopy architecture of cordgrass to normalized-difference-vegetation-index values. The most promising results were obtained from empirical estimates of total ground cover using image data that had been stratified into high, middle, and low marsh zones. As part of on-going restoration monitoring activities, this model is being used to provide maps of estimated vegetation cover.

Perceived environmental aesthetics and convenience and company are associated with walking for exercise among Australian adults

Background. This study aimed to investigate relationships between environmental aesthetics, convenience, and walking companions and walking for exercise or recreation and to investigate differences in these relationships by sex and by reported physical and mental health. Methods. Analyses of cross-sectional self-report data from a statewide population survey of 3,392 Australian adults were used. Results. Men and women reporting a less aesthetically pleasing or less convenient environment were less likely to report walking for exercise or recreation in the past 2 weeks. Those respondents, particularly women, reporting no company or pet to walk with were also less likely to walk for exercise or recreation. Associations with environmental and social influences were observed for men and women reporting both good and poor physical and mental health. Conclusions. Perceived environmental aesthetics and convenience and walking companions are important correlates of walking for exercise among urban Australians. Acknowledging the cross-sectional nature of these data, findings support a case for evaluation of environmental policies to promote physical activity. (C) 2001 American Health Foundation and Academic Press.

Hormone replacement therapy and breast cancer risk in California

Numerous studies have documented increased breast cancer risks with hormone replacement therapy (HRT), but these do not give a woman her specific absolute risk for the remainder of her life. This article estimates the magnitude of the effect of HRT on breast cancer incidence in California and calculates a woman's cumulative risk of breast cancer with different formulations and durations of HRT use. The effects of HRT on the underlying breast cancer incidence were estimated using the attributable fraction method, applying HRT prevalence data from the 2001 California Health Interview Survey and published rates of higher relative risk (RR) from HRT use from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) study and Million Women's Survey (MWS). The annual number of breast cancers potentially attributable to HRT in California was estimated, along with individual cumulative risk of breast cancer for various ages to 79 years according to HRT use, duration, and formulation. Using the WHI data, 829 of 19,000 breast cancers (4.3%) in California may be attributable to HRT This figure increases to 3401 (17.4%) when the MWS RRs are applied. Use of estrogen-only HRT or short-term (approximately 5 years) use of combined HRT has a minimal effect on the cumulative risk calculated to the age of 79 years; application of the MWS data to a Californian woman commencing HRT at the age of 50 years (no HRT, 8.5%; estrogen only, 8.6%; combined, 9.1%). Prolonged (approximately 10 years) use of combined HRT increases the cumulative risk to 10.3%. This article demonstrates that HRT will generate a small additional risk of breast cancer in an individual. The reduction in perimenopausal symptoms may be considered sufficient to warrant this extra risk. However, this view needs to be balanced because the small increases in individual risk will be magnified, producing a noticeable change in population cancer caseload where HRT use is high.

Childhood adversities and adult psychopathology in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys

Background Although significant associations of childhood adversities with adult mental disorders are widely documented, most studies focus on single childhood adversities predicting single disorders. Aims To examine joint associations of 12 childhood adversities with first onset of 20 DSM-IV disorders in World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys in 21 countries. Method Nationally or regionally representative surveys of 51 945 adults assessed childhood adversities and lifetime DSM-IV disorders with the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Results Childhood adversities were highly prevalent and interrelated. Childhood adversities associated with maladaptive family functioning (e.g. parental mental illness, child abuse, neglect) were the strongest predictors of disorders. Co-occurring childhood adversities associated with maladaptive family functioning had significant subadditive predictive associations and little specificity across disorders. Childhood adversities account for 29.8% of all disorders across countries. Conclusions Childhood adversities have strong associations with all classes of disorders at all life-course stages in all groups of WMH countries. Long-term associations imply the existence of as-yet undetermined mediators.