Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the Indian monsoon region

Uncertainties in changes to the spatial distribution and magnitude of the heaviest extremes of daily monsoon rainfall over India are assessed in the doubled CO2 climate change scenarios in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Results show diverse changes to the spatial pattern of the 95th and 99th subseasonal percentiles, which are strongly tied to the mean precipitation change during boreal summer. In some models, the projected increase in heaviest rainfall over India at CO2 doubling is entirely predictable based upon the surface warming and the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, a result which may depend upon the choice of convection scheme. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright

Investigation of the effects of the novel anticonvulsant compound carisbamate(RWJ-333369) on rat piriform cortical neurones in vitro

Background and purpose: Carisbamate is being developed for adjuvant treatment of partial onset epilepsy. Carisbamate produces anticonvulsant effects in primary generalized, complex partial and absence-type seizure models, and exhibits neuroprotective and antiepileptogenic properties in rodent epilepsy models. Phase IIb clinical trials of carisbamate demonstrated efficacy against partial onset seizures; however, its mechanisms of action remain unknown. Here, we report the effects of carisbamate on membrane properties, evoked and spontaneous synaptic transmission and induced epileptiform discharges in layer II-III neurones in piriform cortical brain slices. Experimental approach: Effects of carisbamate were investigated in rat piriform cortical neurones by using intracellular electrophysiological recordings. Key results: Carisbamate (50–400 mmol·L-1) reversibly decreased amplitude, duration and rise-time of evoked action potentials and inhibited repetitive firing, consistent with use-dependent Na+ channel block; 150–400 mmol·L-1 carisbamate reduced neuronal input resistance, without altering membrane potential. After microelectrode intracellular Cl- loading, carisbamate depolarized cells, an effect reversed by picrotoxin. Carisbamate (100–400 mmol·L-1) also selectively depressed lateral olfactory tract-afferent evoked excitatory synaptic transmission (opposed by picrotoxin), consistent with activation of a presynaptic Cl conductance. Lidocaine (40–320 mmol·L-1) mimicked carisbamate, implying similar modes of action. Carisbamate (300–600 mmol·L-1) had no effect on spontaneous GABAA miniature inhibitory postsynaptic currents and at lower concentrations (50–200 mmol·L-1) inhibited Mg2+-free or 4-aminopyridine-induced seizure-like discharges. Conclusions and implications: Carisbamate blocked evoked action potentials use-dependently, consistent with a primary action on Na+ channels and increased Cl- conductances presynaptically and, under certain conditions, postsynaptically to selectively depress excitatory neurotransmission in piriform cortical layer Ia-afferent terminals.

Prolonged neglect following unilateral disruption of a prefrontal cortical-dorsal striatal system.

We investigated the potential function of the system formed by connections between the medial prefrontal cortex and the dorsomedial striatum in aspects of attentional function in the rat. It has been reported previously that disconnection of the same corticostriatal circuit produced marked deficits in performance of a serial, choice reaction-time task while sparing the acquisition of an appetitive Pavlovian approach behaviour in an autoshaping task (Christakou et al., 2001). Here, we hypothesized that unilateral disruption of the same circuit would lead to hemispatial inattention, contrasting with the global attention deficit following complete disconnection of the system. Combined unilateral lesions of the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and the medial caudate-putamen (mCPu) within the same hemisphere produced a severe and long-lasting contralesional neglect syndrome while sparing the acquisition of autoshaping. These results provide further evidence for the involvement of the medial prefrontal-dorsomedial striatal circuit in aspects of attentional function, as well as insight into the nature of neglect deficits following lesions at different levels within corticostriatal circuitry.

Prefrontal cortical-ventral striatal interactions involved in affective modulation of attentional performance: implications for corticostriatal circuit function

Anatomically segregated systems linking the frontal cortex and the striatum are involved in various aspects of cognitive, affective, and motor processing. In this study, we examined the effects of combined unilateral lesions of the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and the core subregion of the nucleus accumbens (AcbC) in opposite hemispheres (disconnection) on a continuous performance, visual attention test [five-choice serial reaction-time task (5CSRTT)]. The disconnection lesion produced a set of specific changes in performance of the 5CSRTT, resembling changes that followed bilateral AcbC lesions while, in addition, comprising a subset of the behavioral changes after bilateral mPFC lesions previously reported using the same task. Specifically, both mPFC/AcbC disconnection and bilateral AcbC lesions markedly affected aspects of response control related to affective feedback, as indexed by perseverative responding in the 5CSRTT. These effects were comparable, although not identical, to those in animals with either bilateral AcbC or mPFC/AcbC disconnection lesions. The mPFC/AcbC disconnection resulted in a behavioral profile largely distinct from that produced by disconnection of a similar circuit described previously, between the mPFC and the dorsomedial striatum, which were shown to form a functional network underlying aspects of visual attention and attention to action. This distinction provides an insight into the functional specialization of corticostriatal circuits in similar behavioral contexts.

Functional disconnection of a prefrontal cortical-dorsal striatal system disrupts choice reaction time performance: implications for attentional function

This series of experiments investigated the role of a prefrontal cortical-dorsal striatal circuit in attention, using a continuous performance task of sustained and spatially divided visual attention. A unilateral excitotoxic lesion of the medial prefrontal cortex and a contralateral lesion of the medial caudate-putamen were used to "disconnect" the circuit. Control groups of rats with unilateral lesions of either structure were tested in the same task. Behavioral controls included testing the effects of the disconnection lesion on Pavlovian discriminated approach behavior. The disconnection lesion produced a significant reduction in the accuracy of performance in the attentional task but did not impair Pavlovian approach behavior or affect locomotor or motivational variables, providing evidence for the involvement of this medial prefrontal corticostriatal system in aspects of visual attentional function.

Understanding projections of sea level rise in a Hadley Centre coupled climate model

Sea level changes resulting from CO2-induced climate changes in ocean density and circulation have been investigated in a series of idealised experiments with the Hadley Centre HadCM3 AOGCM. Changes in the mass of the ocean were not included. In the global mean, salinity changes have a negligible effect compared with the thermal expansion of the ocean. Regionally, sea level changes are projected to deviate greatly from the global mean (standard deviation is 40% of the mean). Changes in surface fluxes of heat, freshwater and wind stress are all found to produce significant and distinct regional sea level changes, wind stress changes being the most important and the cause of several pronounced local features, while heat and freshwater flux changes affect large parts of the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Regional change is related mainly to density changes, with a relatively small contribution in mid and high latitudes from change in the barotropic circulation. Regional density change has an important contribution from redistribution of ocean heat content. In general, unlike in the global mean, the regional pattern of sea level change due to density change appears to be influenced almost as much by salinity changes as by temperature changes, often in opposition. Such compensation is particularly marked in the North Atlantic, where it is consistent with recent observed changes. We suggest that density compensation is not a property of climate change specifically, but a general behavior of the ocean.

The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change

We separate and quantify the sources of uncertainty in projections of regional (*2,500 km) precipitation changes for the twenty-first century using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble, allowing a direct comparison with a similar analysis for regional temperature changes. For decadal means of seasonal mean precipitation, internal variability is the dominant uncertainty for predictions of the first decade everywhere, and for many regions until the third decade ahead. Model uncertainty is generally the dominant source of uncertainty for longer lead times. Scenario uncertainty is found to be small or negligible for all regions and lead times, apart from close to the poles at the end of the century. For the global mean, model uncertainty dominates at all lead times. The signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the precipitation projections is highest at the poles but less than 1 almost everywhere else, and is far lower than for temperature projections. In particular, the tropics have the highest S/N for temperature, but the lowest for precipitation. We also estimate a ‘potential S/N’ by assuming that model uncertainty could be reduced to zero, and show that, for regional precipitation, the gains in S/N are fairly modest, especially for predictions of the next few decades. This finding suggests that adaptation decisions will need to be made in the context of high uncertainty concerning regional changes in precipitation. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional temperature projections is far greater. These conclusions on S/N are for the current generation of models; the real signal may be larger or smaller than the CMIP3 multi-model mean. Also note that the S/N for extreme precipitation, which is more relevant for many climate impacts, may be larger than for the seasonal mean precipitation considered here.