Atrial arrhythmias in adults with congenital heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Atrial arrhythmias increase disease burden in the general adult population. Adults with congenital heart lesions constitute a rapidly growing group of patients with cardiovascular disease. We hypothesized that atrial arrhythmias increase with age and impair health outcomes in this population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a population-based analysis of prevalence, lifetime risk, mortality, and morbidity associated with atrial arrhythmias in adults with congenital heart disease from l983 to 2005. In 38 428 adults with congenital heart disease in 2005, 5812 had atrial arrhythmias. Overall, the 20-year risk of developing atrial arrhythmia was 7% in a 20-year-old subject and 38% in a 50-year-old subject. More than 50% of patients with severe congenital heart disease reaching age 18 years developed atrial arrhythmias by age 65 years. In patients with congenital heart disease, the hazard ratio of any adverse event in those with atrial arrhythmias compared with those without was 2.50 (95% confidence interval, 2.38 to 2.62; P<0.0001), with a near 50% increase in mortality (hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.37 to 1.58; P<0.001), more than double the risk of morbidity (stroke or heart failure) (hazard ratio, 2.21; 95% confidence interval, 2.07 to 2.36; P<0.001), and 3 times the risk of cardiac interventions (hazard ratio, 3.00; 95% confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.20; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Atrial arrhythmias occurred in 15% of adults with congenital heart disease. The lifetime incidence increased steadily with age and was associated with a doubling of the risk of adverse events. An increase in resource allocation should be anticipated to deal with this increasing burden.

Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage after stroke thrombolysis: the SEDAN score.

OBJECTIVE: A study was undertaken to develop a score for assessing risk for symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) in ischemic stroke patients treated with intravenous (IV) thrombolysis. METHODS: The derivation cohort comprised 974 ischemic stroke patients treated (1995-2008) with IV thrombolysis at the Helsinki University Central Hospital. The predictive value of parameters associated with sICH (European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II) was evaluated, and we developed our score according to the magnitude of logistic regression coefficients. We calculated absolute risks and likelihood ratios of sICH per increasing score points. The score was validated in 828 patients from 3 Swiss cohorts (Lausanne, Basel, and Geneva). Performance of the score was tested with area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). RESULTS: Our SEDAN score (0 to 6 points) comprises baseline blood Sugar (glucose; 8.1-12.0 mmol/l [145-216 mg/dl] = 1; >12.0 mmol/l [>216 mg/dl] = 2), Early infarct signs (yes = 1) and (hyper)Dense cerebral artery sign (yes = 1) on admission computed tomography scan, Age (>75 years = 1), and NIH Stroke Scale on admission (≥10 = 1). Absolute risk for sICH in the derivation cohort was: 1.4%, 2.9%, 8.5%, 12.2%, 21.7%, and 33.3% for 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 score points, respectively. In the validation cohort, absolute risks were similar (1.0%, 3.5%, 5.1%, 9.2%, 16.9%, and 27.8%, respectively). AUC-ROC was 0.77 (0.71-0.83; p < 0.001). INTERPRETATION: Our SEDAN score reliably assessed risk for sICH in IV thrombolysis-treated patients with anterior- and posterior circulation ischemic stroke, and it can support clinical decision making in high-risk patients. External validation of the score supports its generalization.

Relevance of biallelic versus monoallelic TNFRSF13B mutations in distinguishing disease-causing from risk-increasing TNFRSF13B variants in antibody deficiency syndromes.

TNFRSF13B encodes transmembrane activator and calcium modulator and cyclophilin ligand interactor (TACI), a B cell- specific tumor necrosis factor (TNF) receptor superfamily member. Both biallelic and monoallelic TNFRSF13B mutations were identified in patients with common variable immunodeficiency disorders. The genetic complexity and variable clinical presentation of TACI deficiency prompted us to evaluate the genetic, immunologic, and clinical condition in 50 individuals with TNFRSF13B alterations, following screening of 564 unrelated patients with hypogammaglobulinemia. We identified 13 new sequence variants. The most frequent TNFRSF13B variants (C104R and A181E; n=39; 6.9%) were also present in a heterozygous state in 2% of 675 controls. All patients with biallelic mutations had hypogammaglobulinemia and nearly all showed impaired binding to a proliferation-inducing ligand (APRIL). However, the majority (n=41; 82%) of the pa-tients carried monoallelic changes in TNFRSF13B. Presence of a heterozygous mutation was associated with antibody deficiency (P&lt; .001, relative risk 3.6). Heterozygosity for the most common mutation, C104R, was associated with disease (P&lt; .001, relative risk 4.2). Furthermore, heterozygosity for C104R was associated with low numbers of IgD(-)CD27(+) B cells (P= .019), benign lymphoproliferation (P&lt; .001), and autoimmune complications (P= .001). These associations indicate that C104R heterozygosity increases the risk for common variable immunodeficiency disorders and influences clinical presentation.

Use of antibiotics in pediatric intensive care and potential savings.

OBJECTIVE: Minimizing unwarranted prescription of antibiotics remains an important objective. Because of the heterogeneity between units regarding patient mix and other characteristics, site-specific targets for reduction must be identified. Here we present a model to address the issue by means of an observational cohort study. SETTING: A tertiary, multidisciplinary, neonatal, and pediatric intensive care unit of a university teaching hospital. PATIENTS: All newborns and children present in the unit (n = 456) between September 1998 and March 1999. Reasons for admission included postoperative care after cardiac surgery, major neonatal or pediatric surgery, severe trauma, and medical conditions requiring critical care. METHODS: Daily recording of antibiotics given and of indications for initiation. After discontinuation, each treatment episode was assessed as to the presence or absence of infection. RESULTS: Of the 456 patients 258 (56.6%) received systemic antibiotics, amounting to 1815 exposure days (54.6%) during 3322 hospitalization days. Of these, 512 (28%) were prescribed as prophylaxis and 1303 for suspected infection. Treatment for suspected ventilator-associated pneumonia accounted for 616 (47%) of 1303 treatment days and suspected sepsis for 255 days (20%). Patients were classified as having no infection or viral infection during 552 (40%) treatment days. The average weekly exposure rate in the unit varied considerably during the 29-week study period (range: 40-77/100 hospitalization days). Patient characteristics did not explain this variation. CONCLUSION: In this unit the largest reduction in antibiotic treatment would result from measures assisting suspected ventilator-associated pneumonia to be ruled out and from curtailing extended prophylaxis.

SAMHD1 is mutated recurrently in chronic lymphocytic leukemia and is involved in response to DNA damage.

SAMHD1 is a deoxynucleoside triphosphate triphosphohydrolase and a nuclease that restricts HIV-1 in noncycling cells. Germ-line mutations in SAMHD1 have been described in patients with Aicardi-Goutières syndrome (AGS), a congenital autoimmune disease. In a previous longitudinal whole genome sequencing study of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), we revealed a SAMHD1 mutation as a potential founding event. Here, we describe an AGS patient carrying a pathogenic germ-line SAMHD1 mutation who developed CLL at 24 years of age. Using clinical trial samples, we show that acquired SAMHD1 mutations are associated with high variant allele frequency and reduced SAMHD1 expression and occur in 11% of relapsed/refractory CLL patients. We provide evidence that SAMHD1 regulates cell proliferation and survival and engages in specific protein interactions in response to DNA damage. We propose that SAMHD1 may have a function in DNA repair and that the presence of SAMHD1 mutations in CLL promotes leukemia development.

Obésité en Suisse: percentiles d'indice de masse corporelle (IMC) d'une population d'enfants et d'adolescents nés en 1980 à Lausanne et écart avec les normes suisses (1955)

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to calculate the percentiles of BMI of a cohort of 1,203 children and adolescents, representing the 95% of the pupils of the school, born in 1980 followed longitudinally between 5 and 16 years. We compare these percentiles with those of the first swiss study, calculated on a cohort born in 1954-1956. METHODS: The percentiles were calculated with the method of Cole, on the basis of weight and height measured during the controls by the school health service, at a non-periodic mean interval of 14 months. RESULTS: The gap between the BMI percentiles of the two cohorts is near zero for the third percentiles, weak but progressively growing with age up to two units of BMI for the 50th percentiles. For the percentiles 97 the difference, straight away present at five years, grows regularly up to 11 years, and remains thereafter for the girls at 4.3 units of BMI, while growing more up to 6.8 units of BMI at 15 years for the boys. The percentages of children and adolescents of the present study with overweight, in accordance with the thresholds of Cole, constant for the girls at 14%, increase for the five to 11.5 years old boys from 13.4% to 17.6% for the 11.5 to 16 years old. The percentage of obesity is 2.7% for the girls, and increase for the same categories for the boys from a percentage of 1.7% to 2.3% for the boys. CONCLUSIONS: The changes during this quarter of century are important, especially for the boys. We can postulate thereafter a very early change in the energy balance. A chronic increase of the food supply, linked or not with a decrease of the physical activity, would be an explanation.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients with chest pain : a clinical prediction score

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease. Scoring methods have been developed to identify coronary heart disease in emergency settings, but not in primary care. METHODS: Data were collected from a multicenter Swiss clinical cohort study including 672 consecutive patients with chest pain, who had visited one of 59 family practitioners' offices. Using delayed diagnosis we derived a prediction rule to rule out coronary heart disease by means of a logistic regression model. Known cardiovascular risk factors, pain characteristics, and physical signs associated with coronary heart disease were explored to develop a clinical score. Patients diagnosed with angina or acute myocardial infarction within the year following their initial visit comprised the coronary heart disease group. RESULTS: The coronary heart disease score was derived from eight variables: age, gender, duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes, substernal chest pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was of 0.95 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.92; 0.97. From this score, 413 patients were considered as low risk for values of percentile 5 of the coronary heart disease patients. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. External validation using data from a German cohort (Marburg, n = 774) revealed a receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72; 0.81) with a sensitivity of 85.6% and a specificity of 47.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This score, based only on history and physical examination, is a complementary tool for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients complaining of chest pain.

Gender differences in HIV progression to AIDS and death in industrialized countries: slower disease progression following HIV seroconversion in women.

To evaluate sex differences in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease progression before (pre-1997) and after (1997-2006) introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy, the authors used data from a collaboration of 23 HIV seroconverter cohort studies from Europe, Australia, and Canada restricted to the 6,923 seroconverters infected through injecting drug use and sex between men and women. Within a competing risk framework, they used Cox proportional hazards models allowing for late entry to evaluate sex differences in time from HIV seroconversion to death, to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), and to each first AIDS-defining disease and death without AIDS. While no significant sex differences were found before 1997, from 1997 onward, women had a lower risk of AIDS (adjusted cumulative relative risk (aCRR) = 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.63, 0.90) and death (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.82) than men did. Compared with men, women also had lower risks of AIDS dementia complex (aCRR = 0.23, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.74), tuberculosis (aCRR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.92), Kaposi's sarcoma (aCRR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.99), lymphomas (aCRR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.23, 0.96), and death without AIDS (aCRR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.98). Sex differences in HIV disease progression have become larger and statistically significant in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy, supporting a stronger impact of health interventions among women.

CD4+ T cell count recovery in HIV type 1-infected patients is independent of class of antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, treatment options for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection have changed from nonboosted protease inhibitors (PIs) to nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) and boosted PI-based antiretroviral drug regimens, but the impact on immunological recovery remains uncertain. METHODS: During January 1996 through December 2004 [corrected] all patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort were included if they received the first combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) and had known baseline CD4(+) T cell counts and HIV-1 RNA values (n = 3293). For follow-up, we used the Swiss HIV Cohort Study database update of May 2007 [corrected] The mean (+/-SD) duration of follow-up was 26.8 +/- 20.5 months. The follow-up time was limited to the duration of the first cART. CD4(+) T cell recovery was analyzed in 3 different treatment groups: nonboosted PI, NNRTI, or boosted PI. The end point was the absolute increase of CD4(+) T cell count in the 3 treatment groups after the initiation of cART. RESULTS: Two thousand five hundred ninety individuals (78.7%) initiated a nonboosted-PI regimen, 452 (13.7%) initiated an NNRTI regimen, and 251 (7.6%) initiated a boosted-PI regimen. Absolute CD4(+) T cell count increases at 48 months were as follows: in the nonboosted-PI group, from 210 to 520 cells/muL; in the NNRTI group, from 220 to 475 cells/muL; and in the boosted-PI group, from 168 to 511 cells/muL. In a multivariate analysis, the treatment group did not affect the response of CD4(+) T cells; however, increased age, pretreatment with nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors, serological tests positive for hepatitis C virus, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stage C infection, lower baseline CD4(+) T cell count, and lower baseline HIV-1 RNA level were risk factors for smaller increases in CD4(+) T cell count. CONCLUSION: CD4(+) T cell recovery was similar in patients receiving nonboosted PI-, NNRTI-, and boosted PI-based cART.

Copeptin, a stable peptide derived from the vasopressin precursor, correlates with the individual stress level.

BACKGROUND: During stress, vasopressin is a potent synergistic factor of CRH as a hypothalamic stimulator of the HPA axis. The measurements of CRH and vasopressin levels are cumbersome because of their instability and short half-life. Copeptin is a more stable peptide stoichiometrically released from the same precursor molecule. The aim of our study was to compare copeptin and cortisol levels in different stress situations. METHODS: Three groups of patients with increasing stress levels were investigated: a) healthy controls without apparent stress (n=20), b) hospitalized medical patients with moderate stress (n=25) and c) surgical patients 30 minutes after extubation, with maximal stress (n=29). In all patients we assessed cortisol and copeptin levels. Copeptin levels were measured with a new sandwich immunoassay. RESULTS: Cortisol levels in controls were (median, IQ range, 486 [397-588] nmol/L), not significantly different as compared to medical patients (438 [371-612] nmol/L, p=0.69). Cortisol levels in surgical patients after extubation were higher (744 [645-1062] nmol/L p<0.01 vs controls and medical patients). Copeptin levels in controls were 4.3 [3.2-5.5] pmol/L, which was lower as compared to medical patients (17.5 [6.4-24.1], p<0.001) and surgical patients after extubation (67.5 [37.8-110.0] pmol/L, p<0.001). The correlation between copeptin levels and cortisol was r=0.46, p<0.001. CONCLUSION: Copeptin is a novel marker of the individual stress level. It more subtly mirrors moderate stress as compared to cortisol values.

Not in Education, Employment, or Training status among young Swiss men. Longitudinal associations with mental health and substance use.

PURPOSE: Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET) youth are youth disengaged from major social institutions and constitute a worrying concern. However, little is known about this subgroup of vulnerable youth. This study aimed to examine if NEET youth differ from other contemporaries in terms of personality, mental health, and substance use and to provide longitudinal examination of NEET status, testing its stability and prospective pathways with mental health and substance use. METHODS: As part of the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors, 4,758 young Swiss men in their early 20s answered questions concerning their current professional and educational status, personality, substance use, and symptomatology related to mental health. Descriptive statistics, generalized linear models for cross-sectional comparisons, and cross-lagged panel models for longitudinal associations were computed. RESULTS: NEET youth were 6.1% at baseline and 7.4% at follow-up with 1.4% being NEET at both time points. Comparisons between NEET and non-NEET youth showed significant differences in substance use and depressive symptoms only. Longitudinal associations showed that previous mental health, cannabis use, and daily smoking increased the likelihood of being NEET. Reverse causal paths were nonsignificant. CONCLUSIONS: NEET status seemed to be unlikely and transient among young Swiss men, associated with differences in mental health and substance use but not in personality. Causal paths presented NEET status as a consequence of mental health and substance use rather than a cause. Additionally, this study confirmed that cannabis use and daily smoking are public health problems. Prevention programs need to focus on these vulnerable youth to avoid them being disengaged.

Assessing the Relationship between the Baseline Value of a Continuous Variable and Subsequent Change over Time

Analyzing the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change of a continuous variable is a frequent matter of inquiry in cohort studies. These analyses are surprisingly complex, particularly if only two waves of data are available. It is unclear for non-biostatisticians where the complexity of this analysis lies and which statistical method is adequate.With the help of simulated longitudinal data of body mass index in children,we review statistical methods for the analysis of the association between the baseline value and subsequent change, assuming linear growth with time. Key issues in such analyses are mathematical coupling, measurement error, variability of change between individuals, and regression to the mean. Ideally, it is better to rely on multiple repeated measurements at different times and a linear random effects model is a standard approach if more than two waves of data are available. If only two waves of data are available, our simulations show that Blomqvist's method - which consists in adjusting for measurement error variance the estimated regression coefficient of observed change on baseline value - provides accurate estimates. The adequacy of the methods to assess the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change depends on the number of data waves, the availability of information on measurement error, and the variability of change between individuals.