New perspectives on the synoptic and mesoscale structure of Hurricane Catarina

This work explores in detail synoptic and mesoscale features of Hurricane Catarina during its life cycle from a decaying baroclinic wave to a tropical depression that underwent tropical transition (TT) and finally to a Category 2 hurricane at landfall over Santa Catarina State coast, southern Brazil. This unique system caused 11 deaths mostly off the Brazilian coast and an estimated half billion dollars in damage in a matter of a few hours on 28 March 2004. Although the closest meteorological station available was tens of kilometres away from the eye, in situ meteorological measurements provided by a work-team sent to the area where the eye made landfall unequivocally reproduces the tropical signature with category 2 strength, adding to previous analysis where this data was not available. Further analyses are based mostly on remote sensing data available at the time of the event. A classic dipole blocking set synoptic conditions for Hurricane Catarina to develop, dynamically contributing to the low wind shear observed. On the other hand, on its westward transit, large scale subsidence limited its strength and vertical development. Catarina had relatively cool SST conditions, but this was mitigated by favourable air-sea fluxes leading to latent heat release-driven processes during the mature phase. The ocean`s dynamic topography also suggested the presence of nearby warm core rings which may have facilitated the transition and post-transition intensification. Since there were no records of such a system at least in the past 30 years and given that SSTs were generally below 26 degrees C and vertical shear was usually strong, despite all satellite data available, the system was initially classified as an extratropical cyclone. Here we hypothesise that this categorization was based oil inadequate regional scale model outputs which did not account for the importance of the latent heat fluxes over the ocean. Hurricane Catarina represents a dramatic event on weather systems in South America. It has attracted attention worldwide and poses questions as whether or not it is a symptom of global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of convective parameterization in the simulation of a cyclone over the South Atlantic

Numerical simulations are carried out to examine the role of the Kuo and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterization schemes and dry dynamics on a cyclone development, in a weak baroclinic atmosphere, over subtropical South Atlantic Ocean. The initial phase of the cyclone development is investigated with a coarse horizontal mesh (75 km) and when the cyclone reaches the mature stage two different horizontal resolutions are used (75 and 25 km). The best performance simulation for the cyclone initial phase occurs when the Kuo convective scheme is applied, and this may be attributed to a greater diabatic warming in the troposphere. On the other hand, the dry simulation is not capable of simulating the correct location and intensity of the cyclone in its initial phase. During the mature phase, a cyclone over deepening occurs in the Kuo scheme experiment associated with larger latent heat release in a deep vertical column. The presence of downdraft currents in the KF scheme, which acts to cool and dry the lower levels, is essential to stabilize the atmosphere and to reproduce the nearest observation cyclone deepening rate. The largest cyclone deepening is found in the Kuo scheme high resolution experiment. This suggests that the KF convective scheme is less sensitive to the horizontal grid resolution. It was also revealed that the diabatic processes are crucial to simulate the observed features of this marine cyclone over subtropical region.

Rossby wave propagation tracks in southern hemisphere mean basic flows associated to generalized frosts over southern South America

Based on previous observational studies on cold extreme events over southern South America, some recent studies suggest a possible relationship between Rossby wave propagation remotely triggered and the occurrence of frost. Using the concept of linear theory of Rossby wave propagation, this paper analyzes the propagation of such waves in two different basic states that correspond to austral winters with maximum and minimum generalized frost frequency of occurrence in the Wet Pampa (central-northwest Argentina). In order to determine the wave trajectories, the ray tracing technique is used in this study. Some theoretical discussion about this technique is also presented. The analysis of the basic state, from a theoretical point of view and based on the calculation of ray tracings, corroborates that remotely excited Rossby waves is the mechanism that favors the maximum occurrence of generalized frosts. The basic state in which the waves propagate is what conditions the places where they are excited. The Rossby waves are excited in determined places of the atmosphere, propagating towards South America along the jet streams that act as wave guides, favoring the generation of generalized frosts. In summary, this paper presents an overview of the ray tracing technique and how it can be used to investigate an important synoptic event, such as frost in a specific region, and its relationship with the propagation of large scale planetary waves.

IPCC global coupled model simulations of the South America monsoon system

This study examines the variability of the South America monsoon system (SAMS) over tropical South America (SA). The onset, end, and total rainfall during the summer monsoon are investigated using precipitation pentad estimates from the global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) 1979-2006. Likewise, the variability of SAMS characteristics is examined in ten Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global coupled climate models in the twentieth century (1981-2000) and in a future scenario of global change (A1B) (2081-2100). It is shown that most IPCC models misrepresent the intertropical convergence zone and therefore do not capture the actual annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and northwest SA. Most models can correctly represent the spatiotemporal variability of the annual cycle of precipitation in central and eastern Brazil such as the correct phase of dry and wet seasons, onset dates, duration of rainy season and total accumulated precipitation during the summer monsoon for the twentieth century runs. Nevertheless, poor representation of the total monsoonal precipitation over the Amazon and northeast Brazil is observed in a large majority of the models. Overall, MI-ROC3.2-hires, MIROC3.2-medres and MRI-CGCM3.2.3 show the most realistic representation of SAMS`s characteristics such as onset, duration, total monsoonal precipitation, and its interannual variability. On the other hand, ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.0 and GFDL-CM2.1 have the least realistic representation of the same characteristics. For the A1B scenario the most coherent feature observed in the IPCC models is a reduction in precipitation over central-eastern Brazil during the summer monsoon, comparatively with the present climate. The IPCC models do not indicate statistically significant changes in SAMS onset and demise dates for the same scenario.

The Impacts of Inter-El Nino Variability on the Tropical Atlantic and Northeast Brazil Climate

In this study, observations and numerical simulations are used to investigate how different El Nino events affect the development of SST anomalies in the Atlantic and how this relates to the Brazilian northeast (NE) precipitation. The results show that different types of El Nino have different impacts on the SST anomalies of the equatorial and tropical South Atlantic but a similar SST response in the tropical North Atlantic. Strong and long (weak and short) El Ninos with the main heating source located in the eastern (central) Pacific generate cold (warm) anomalies in the cold tongue and Benguela upwelling regions during boreal winter and spring. When the SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial and tropical South Atlantic are cold (warm), the meridional SST gradient across the equator is positive (negative) and the ITCZ is not allowed (allowed) to move southward during the boreal spring; as a consequence, the precipitation is below (above) the average over the NE. Thus, strong and long (weak and short) El Ninos are followed by dry (wet) conditions in the NE. During strong and long El Ninos, changes in the Walker circulation over the Atlantic and in the Pacific-South Atlantic (PSA) wave train cause easterly wind anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic, which in turn activate the Bjerknes mechanism, establishing the cold tongue in boreal spring and summer. These easterly anomalies are also responsible for the Benguela upwelling. During short and weak El Ninos, westerly wind anomalies are present in the western equatorial Atlantic accompanied by warm anomalies in the eastern equatorial and tropical South Atlantic; a positive phase of the South Atlantic dipole develops during boreal winter. The simulations highlight the importance of ocean dynamics in establishing the correct slope of the equatorial thermocline and SST anomalies, which in turn determine the correct rainfall response over the NE.

A case study of the direct radiative effect of biomass burning aerosols on precipitation in the Eastern Amazon

Numerical experiments with the Brazilian additions to the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System were performed with two nested grids (50 and 10 km horizontal resolution, respectively) with and without the effect of biomass burning for 8 different situations for 96 h integrations. Only the direct radiative effect of aerosols is considered. The results were analyzed in large areas encompassing the BR163 road (one of the main areas of deforestation in the Amazon). mainly where most of the burning takes place. The precipitation change due to the direct radiative impact of biomass burning is generally negative (i.e., there is a decrease of precipitation). However, there are a few cases with a positive impact. Two opposite forcing mechanisms were explored: (a) the thermodynamic forcing that is generally negative in the sense that the aerosol tends to stabilize the lower atmosphere and (b) the dynamic impact associated with the low level horizontal pressure gradients produced by the aerosol plumes. In order to understand the non-linear relationship between the two effects, experiments were performed with 4-fold emissions. In these cases, the dynamic effect overcomes the stabilization produced by the radiative forcing and precipitation increase is observed in comparison with the control experiment. This study suggests that. in general, the biomass burning radiative forcing decreases the precipitation. However, very large concentrations of aerosols may lead to an increase of precipitation due to the dynamical forcing associated with the horizontal pressure gradients. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiyear measurements of the oceanic and atmospheric boundary layers at the Brazil-Malvinas confluence region

This study analyzes and discusses data taken from oceanic and atmospheric measurements performed simultaneously at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) region in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. This area is one of the most dynamical frontal regions of the world ocean. Data were collected during four research cruises in the region once a year in consecutive years between 2004 and 2007. Very few studies have addressed the importance of studying the air-sea coupling at the BMC region. Lateral temperature gradients at the study region were as high as 0.3 degrees C km(-1) at the surface and subsurface. In the oceanic boundary layer, the vertical temperature gradient reached 0.08 degrees C m(-1) at 500 m depth. Our results show that the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) at the BMC region is modulated by the strong sea surface temperature (SST) gradients present at the sea surface. The mean MABL structure is thicker over the warmside of the BMC where Brazil Current (BC) waters predominate. The opposite occurs over the coldside of the confluence where waters from the Malvinas (Falkland) Current (MC) are found. The warmside of the confluence presented systematically higher MABL top height compared to the coldside. This type of modulation at the synoptic scale is consistent to what happens in other frontal regions of the world ocean, where the MABL adjusts itself to modifications along the SST gradients. Over warm waters at the BMC region, the MABL static instability and turbulence were increased while winds at the lower portion of the MABL were strong. Over the coldside of the BC/MC front an opposite behavior is found: the MABL is thinner and more stable. Our results suggest that the sea-level pressure (SLP) was also modulated locally, together with static stability vertical mixing mechanism, by the surface condition during all cruises. SST gradients at the BMC region modulate the synoptic atmospheric pressure gradient. Postfrontal and prefrontal conditions produce opposite thermal advections in the MABL that lead to different pressure intensification patterns across the confluence.

Assessing the diurnal evolution of surface radiation balance over the western region of Tropical Atlantic Ocean using in situ measurements carried out during the FluTuA balance Project

In this work, the diurnal evolution of the radiation balance components over the tropical Atlantic Ocean is described and analysed. The analysis is based on measurements carried Out on board a Brazilian Navy ship during the observational campaign of the FluTuA Project (`Fluxos Turbulentos sobre o Atlantico`), from 15 to 23 May 2002. The observations indicated that the albedo responds its expected to atmospheric attenuation effects with a diurnal evolution similar to the Fresnel albedo. In general, the observed longwave radiation values agreed better with the estimated values obtained without longwave reflection. In agreement with the literature, the average surface emissivity was around 0.97. The net radiation, estimated from published equations for albedo, atmospheric transmissivity and surface emissivity, agreed with the observations, indicating that these parameters are representative of the radiometric properties of the air-sea interface in the region between Natal (6 degrees S, 35.2 degrees W) and the Sao Pedro and Sao Paulo Archipelago (1 degrees N, 29.3 degrees W). Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Cloud condensation nuclei from biomass burning during the Amazonian dry-to-wet transition season

Aircraft measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) during the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) were conducted over the Southwestern Amazon region in September-October 2002, to emphasize the dry-to-wet transition season. The CCN concentrations were measured for values within the range 0.1-1.0% of supersaturation. The CCN concentration inside the boundary layer revealed a general decreasing trend during the transition from the end of the dry season to the onset of the wet season. Clean and polluted areas showed large differences. The differences were not so strong at high levels in the troposphere and there was evidence supporting the semi-direct aerosol effect in suppressing convection through the evaporation of clouds by aerosol absorption. The measurements also showed a diurnal cycle following biomass burning activity. Although biomass burning was the most important source of CCN, it was seen as a source of relatively efficient CCN, since the increase was significant only at high supersaturations.

Precipitation diurnal cycle and summer climatology assessment over South America: An evaluation of Regional Climate Model version 3 simulations

Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations of 17 summers (1988-2004) over part of South America south of 5 degrees S were evaluated to identify model systematic errors. Model results were compared to different rainfall data sets (Climate Research Unit (CRU), Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis), including the five summers mean (1998-2002) precipitation diurnal cycle observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-Precipitation Radar (PR). In spite of regional differences, the RegCM3 simulates the main observed aspects of summer climatology associated with the precipitation (northwest-southeast band of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)) and air temperature (warmer air in the central part of the continent and colder in eastern Brazil and the Andes Mountains). At a regional scale, the main RegCM3 failures are the underestimation of the precipitation in the northern branch of the SACZ and some unrealistic intense precipitation around the Andes Mountains. However, the RegCM3 seasonal precipitation is closer to the fine-scale analyses (CPC, CRU, and TRMM-PR) than is the NCEP reanalysis, which presents an incorrect north-south orientation of SACZ and an overestimation of its intensity. The precipitation diurnal cycle observed by TRMM-PR shows pronounced contrasts between Tropics and Extratropics and land and ocean, where most of these features are simulated by RegCM3. The major similarities between the simulation and observation, especially the diurnal cycle phase, are found over the continental tropical and subtropical SACZ regions, which present afternoon maximum (1500-1800 UTC) and morning minimum (0900-1200 UTC). More specifically, over the core of SACZ, the phase and amplitude of the simulated precipitation diurnal cycle are very close to the TRMM-PR observations. Although there are amplitude differences, the RegCM3 simulates the observed nighttime rainfall in the eastern Andes Mountains, over the Atlantic Ocean, and also over northern Argentina. The main simulation deficiencies are found in the Atlantic Ocean and near the Andes Mountains. Over the Atlantic Ocean the convective scheme is not triggered; thus the rainfall arises from the grid-scale scheme and therefore differs from the TRMM-PR. Near the Andes, intense (nighttime and daytime) simulated precipitation could be a response of an incorrect circulation and topographic uplift. Finally, it is important to note that unlike most reported bias of global models, RegCM3 does not trigger the moist convection just after sunrise over the southern part of the Amazon.

An event of stratospheric air intrusion and its associated secondary surface cyclogenesis over the South Atlantic Ocean

This work presents an analysis of a lowermost stratospheric air intrusion event over the coast of Brazil, which may have been responsible for a secondary surface cyclogenesis over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The surface cyclone initiated at 0600 UTC 17 April 1999 in a cold air mass in the rear of a cold front after a primary cyclone developed over the same region. The analysis of the secondary cyclone revealed the presence of lowermost stratospheric air intrusion characterized by anomalous potential vorticity (PV), dry air, and high concentration of ozone in atmospheric column. The system developed on the eastern side of an upper level core of PV anomaly, which induced a cyclonic wind circulation at lower levels and favored the onset of the secondary cyclone. In midlevels (500 hPa), the cutoff low development contributed to reduce the propagation speed of the wave pattern. This feature seemed to (1) allow the low-level cold/dry air to heat/moisten associated with sensible and latent fluxes transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere, which intensified a baroclinic zone parallel to the coast, and (2) contribute to the long duration of the system. The present analysis indicates that this secondary cyclone development could be the result of the coupling between the PV anomaly in the upper levels and low-level air-sea interaction.

Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Extreme Dry and Wet Events over Southeastern South America and the Subtropical Atlantic during Austral Summer

Intraseasonal and interannual variability of extreme wet and dry anomalies over southeastern Brazil and the western subtropical South Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Precipitation data are obtained from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) in pentads during 23 austral summers (December-February 1979/80-2001/02). Extreme wet (dry) events are defined according to 75th (25th) percentiles of precipitation anomaly distributions observed in two time scales: intraseasonal and interannual. The agreement between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the GPCP precipitation and gridded precipitation obtained from stations in Brazil is also examined. Variations of extreme wet and dry anomalies on interannual time scales are investigated along with variations of sea surface temperature (SST) and circulation anomalies. The South Atlantic SST dipole seems related to interannual variations of extreme precipitation events over southeastern Brazil. It is shown that extreme wet and dry events in the continental portion of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) are decoupled from extremes over the oceanic portion of the SACZ and there is no coherent dipole of extreme precipitation regimes between tropics and subtropics on interannual time scales. On intraseasonal time scales, the occurrence of extreme dry and wet events depends on the propagation phase of extratropical wave trains and consequent intensification (weakening) of 200-hPa zonal winds. Extreme wet and dry events over southeastern Brazil and subtropical Atlantic are in phase on intraseasonal time scales. Extreme wet events over southeastern Brazil and subtropical Atlantic are observed in association with low-level northerly winds above the 75th percentile of the seasonal climatology over central-eastern South America. Extreme wet events on intraseasonal time scales over southeastern Brazil are more frequent during seasons not classified as extreme wet or dry on interannual time scales.

Two case studies of sulfate scavenging processes in the Amazon region (Rondonia)

The scavenging processes of chemical species have been previously studied with numerical modeling, in order to understand the gas and particulate matter intra-reservoir transferences. In this study, the atmospheric (RAMS) and scavenging (B.V.2) models were used, in order to simulate sulfate concentrations in rainwater using scavenging processes as well as the local atmospheric conditions obtained within the LBA Project in the State of Rondonia, during a dry-to-wet transition season. Two case studies were conducted. The RAMS atmospheric simulation of these events presented satisfactory results, showing the detailed microphysical processes of clouds in the Amazonian region. On the other hand, with cloud entrainments, observed values have been overestimated. Modeled sulfate rainwater concentration, using exponential decay and cloud heights of 16 km and no entrainments, presented the best results, reaching 97% of the observed value. The results, using shape parameter 5, are the best, improving the overall result. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of biomass burning aerosols on precipitation in the Amazon: A modeling case study

A study of the potential role of aerosols in modifying clouds and precipitation is presented using a numerical atmospheric model. Measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and cloud size distribution properties taken in the southwestern Amazon region during the transition from dry to wet seasons were used as guidelines to define the microphysical parameters for the simulations. Numerical simulations were carried out using the Brazilian Development on Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, and the results presented considerable sensitivity to changes in these parameters. High CCN concentrations, typical of polluted days, were found to result in increases or decreases in total precipitation, depending on the level of pollution used as a reference, showing a complexity that parallels the aerosol-precipitation interaction. Our results show that on the grids evaluated, higher CCN concentrations reduced low-to-moderate rainfall rates and increased high rainfall rates. The principal consequence of the increased pollution was a change from a warm to a cold rain process, which affected the maximum and overall mean accumulated precipitation. Under polluted conditions, cloud cover diminished, allowing greater amounts of solar radiation to reach the surface. Aerosol absorption of radiation in the lower layers of the atmosphere delayed convective evolution but produced higher maximum rainfall rates due to increased instability. In addition, the intensity of the surface sensible heat flux, as well as that of the latent heat flux, was reduced by the lower temperature difference between surface and air, producing greater energy stores at the surface.

The impact of smoke from forest fires on the spectral dispersion of cloud droplet size distributions in the Amazonian region

In this paper, the main microphysical characteristics of clouds developing in polluted and clean conditions in the biomass-burning season of the Amazon region are examined, with special attention to the spectral dispersion of the cloud droplet size distribution and its potential impact on climate modeling applications. The dispersion effect has been shown to alter the climate cooling predicted by the so-called Twomey effect. In biomass-burning polluted conditions, high concentrations of low dispersed cloud droplets are found. Clean conditions revealed an opposite situation. The liquid water content (0.43 +/- 0.19 g m(-3)) is shown to be uncorrelated with the cloud drop number concentration, while the effective radius is found to be very much correlated with the relative dispersion of the size distribution (R(2) = 0.81). The results suggest that an increase in cloud condensation nuclei concentration from biomass-burning aerosols may lead to an additional effect caused by a decrease in relative dispersion. Since the dry season in the Amazonian region is vapor limiting, the dispersion effect of cloud droplet size distributions could be substantially larger than in other polluted regions.